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-   -   C/RW Kyle Wellwood: #TeamWelly stats (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1323187)

garret9 01-14-2013 01:04 PM

C/RW Kyle Wellwood: #TeamWelly stats
 
<EDIT>Thanks to Gm0ney for spotting some errors that were in my interpetations of the ES/PP production. I must have been reading wrong years twice, 2010 instead of 2011, when I was scrolling up and down on my little blackberry</EDIT>


I like doing these breakdowns because the confirm things that I thought when I've watched, and sometimes they've denied old positions or created new opinions.
Wellwood is definitely one of those breakdowns.

Even Strength and PP Production
YEARGPESTOI/60ESP/60ESGESAPPTOI/60PPP/60PPGPPASOGSH%
2007 5909.41 0.97 0306 2.97 4.11 057 57 14.0
2008 7410.43 1.09 0806 2.91 3.07 103 94 19.1
2009 7511.73 1.30 1109 1.77 1.81 032 98 14.3
2010 2513.25 1.55 0507 0.41 4.19 001 50 10.0
2011 7712.69 2.15 1423 1.89 3.30 046 93 19.4
There appears to be many small overlapping reasons for Wellwood's career year:
*Career high sh% (thank you Kane for creating the easy picking rebounds)
*Career high and team high A2/60 (more than double his previous career high)
*Career high total TOI (due to games played and TOI/gp)
While some seem to say Wellwood's stats were padded (something I always believed), what I didn't notice until today, was that Wellwood had the most amount of set-up success of his career, with his highest A1/60 in his career. This may indeed show some validity to his career highs.
Wellwood has twice hit extreme high shooting percentages which isn't too hard to believe; he shoots at a very low rate, which makes him more susceptible to natural variation than most. I'd say that 12-15 is probably the "norm" for him, which is still extremely high for most players,.

Even Strength Advance Stats
YEARRelQoCOZSRelCorsiCorsiG/60A1/60P/60
2007 -0.212 58.5 04.0 06.91 0.32 0.72 1.73
2008 0.560 55.1-05.7-05.21 0.62 0.62 1.81
2009 0.546 45.9-04.2 01.16 0.68 0.61 1.69
2010 -0.170 51.3 18.5 22.12 0.65 0.55 1.75
2011 0.105 60.5 15.8 12.65 0.74 0.75 1.80
2007: Wellwood's last year in TO, tuns out to be his least successful for PTS/GP, especially only 9 ES points. He's being sheltered slightly and pushed offensively but not much comes of it other than some PP points and decent possession numbers.
2008: In Van, Wellwood is placed on the third line and starts facing tougher competition and a little bit less OZS. Unsurprisingly his possession numbers suffer, but surprisingly his ES P/60 go up. He also has a very successful PP with 10 goals (more than 1/3 of his total points).
2009: Next season in Van Wellwood gets pushed into the D-zone as Van starts pushing Sedin's into easier and softer minutes as they age. As expected his ES P/60 falters but what's really impressive is that Wellwood starts out-chancing his opponents in this shutdown role (albeit not extremely) showing a much improved game. Unfortunately Wellwood's SH% falters to his normal (but above most players average) level, as does his PP points so Vancouver doesn't think of keeping him.
2010: Wellwood pulls a Miettinen coming in late in the season and does a pretty good job. He's used similarly as TO did in 2007 but with the much improved possession abilities formed from his time in Van, Wellwood posts career high Corsi and RelCorsi numbers.
2011: Wellwood comes to WPG and finds his role, burying Kane's rebounds and/or setting him up. Wellwood does a good job at pushing the play forward. He faces tougher competition in SJS but not exactly being sheltered, but is very strongly pushed into the O-zone.

Summary
Last season Wellwood's ES P/60 are second only to Kane and he admits that Noel wanted to use him more but he wasn't in the condition to be able to. He stated in the off-season that his goal was to change this, hoping to become a real plus on the top6 than just a support piece or a hindrance. He made a bit of a gamble signing a 1 year contract, possibly hoping to replicate last season's success to score a better contract for 2013-14+.


1-2 Years in the Future
As I've hinted on here many times before, I think our top6's current structure is needing one more upgrade, and that upgrade is with Wellwood's spot. The way I see it, is that only one of Antropov or Wellwood will be re-signed -if either of them are- for a spot on the Jets' 3rd line next season. If Wellwood has another career year in a top6 role, it may be financial better to re-sign Antropov (or another) instead of Wellwood. It's too bad because Welly's hockey smarts and hands are a real plus, but unfortunately his size and skating are a bit of a hindrance for him to find a real full-time/long-time role.

1: Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler
2: Ladd-x-Little
3: x-x-x/Wellwood

truck 01-14-2013 01:19 PM

Welly is one of my favorite players to watch.

He is an artist.

Gm0ney 01-14-2013 01:49 PM

Wait are those "career high" conclusions correct? I'm seeing:
  • Career high SH%: Yes, but by only 0.3% over his next best year...it was still +5% over his previous 4 year average. So, good year, no doubt.
  • PP P/60: 3rd highest. Wasn't his career high in 2010 with 4.19? His previous 4 year average was 3.295 PPP/60, so last season was a pretty average year.
  • ES TOI/60: 2nd highest (2010 was career high). 1.485 over previous 4 year average.

garret9 01-14-2013 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gm0ney (Post 57584105)
Wait are those "career high" conclusions correct? I'm seeing:
  • Career high SH%: Yes, but by only 0.3% over his next best year...it was still +5% over his previous 4 year average. So, good year, no doubt.
  • PP P/60: 3rd highest. Wasn't his career high in 2010 with 4.19? His previous 4 year average was 3.295 PPP/60, so last season was a pretty average year.
  • ES TOI/60: 2nd highest (2010 was career high). 1.485 over previous 4 year average.

Thanks! Good catches. I did Welly's off of my cell phone while in classes (I'm stíll in here). I won't change anything yet because I want to wait till I'm home on my comp to see if it was a typo in my data or I was looking at the wrong years for the ES TOI/60 and PP P/60... I think it was me looking at the wrong year which is what you had pointed out to the higher ones.

I hold by the SH% being inflated. The presence of one inflated year doesn't negate the second. No one not named Stamkos sustains long periods of 14+... Wellwood is a picky shooter and has quality hands, but so do other guys (like Little and Antro) and still they don't sustain huge boosts like that. Most likely a "norm" of Wellwood is between 12-14 which still puts him on the very highend for long term SH%.

garret9 01-14-2013 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gm0ney (Post 57584105)
Wait are those "career high" conclusions correct? I'm seeing:
  • Career high SH%: Yes, but by only 0.3% over his next best year...it was still +5% over his previous 4 year average. So, good year, no doubt.
  • PP P/60: 3rd highest. Wasn't his career high in 2010 with 4.19? His previous 4 year average was 3.295 PPP/60, so last season was a pretty average year.
  • ES TOI/60: 2nd highest (2010 was career high). 1.485 over previous 4 year average.

Thanks again man!
I double checked and my data seems correct, so it must have been me misreading the year (2010 instead of 2011) for both the 2nd and 3rd point in the list.

I've updated.

GermanJetsFan 01-15-2013 05:32 AM

i good job garret as usual. i like welly a lot I have a sweet spot for smaller crafty players like him :)

Gryph 01-15-2013 08:16 AM

Hey guys I have recently moved to Winnipeg and have quickly fallen in love with the team. I was formerly a Leaf fan but in recent years have found their corporate ownership to be unbearable as a fan. They will always hold a soft spot in my heart, but Chipman and Thomson's ownership group has been a fantastic breath of fresh air so far.

Anyway, my question has to do with Wellwood's style of play. There is no doubt his statistics have been much improved since he was run out of Toronto but does he still play that one dimensional offensive passing game or has he improved on his defense and shooting abilities? When he played in Toronto he used a ridiculously short stick that helped him to back nifty dekes and passes, but also resulted in horrific shooting abilities.

truck 01-15-2013 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gryph (Post 57619459)
Hey guys I have recently moved to Winnipeg and have quickly fallen in love with the team. I was formerly a Leaf fan but in recent years have found their corporate ownership to be unbearable as a fan. They will always hold a soft spot in my heart, but Chipman and Thomson's ownership group has been a fantastic breath of fresh air so far.

Anyway, my question has to do with Wellwood's style of play. There is no doubt his statistics have been much improved since he was run out of Toronto but does he still play that one dimensional offensive passing game or has he improved on his defense and shooting abilities? When he played in Toronto he used a ridiculously short stick that helped him to back nifty dekes and passes, but also resulted in horrific shooting abilities.

He still doesn't shoot much, but pass first works when playing with Kaner.

People crap on him for his defensive play, but I think it is largely unfounded. Sure, he isn't built to play the body, but I think he does an excellent job with his positioning and his stick. There were a number of times last year where he played a one on one perfectly and steered the oncoming player into the boards or into a linemate with smart positional play. He isn't an elite shut down player, but he isn't a liability.

Inflict 01-15-2013 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gryph (Post 57619459)
Anyway, my question has to do with Wellwood's style of play. There is no doubt his statistics have been much improved since he was run out of Toronto but does he still play that one dimensional offensive passing game or has he improved on his defense and shooting abilities? When he played in Toronto he used a ridiculously short stick that helped him to back nifty dekes and passes, but also resulted in horrific shooting abilities.

His offensive game hasn't changed too much IMO (that's not a bad thing. It has always been at an elite level). His decision making has improved slightly as he does not hold on to the puck as often and usually makes the right play.

His defensive game is a lot better, but he still hesitates to back check sometimes which may have had something to do with his conditioning. His positioning on both sides of the ice have improved greatly.

Skidooboy 01-15-2013 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inflict (Post 57620259)
His offensive game hasn't changed too much IMO (that's not a bad thing. It has always been at an elite level). His decision making has improved slightly as he does not hold on to the puck as often and usually makes the right play.

His defensive game is a lot better, but he still hesitates to back check sometimes which may have had something to do with his conditioning. His positioning on both sides of the ice have improved greatly.

I noticed Welly was beconming a stronger player last year vs his time elsewhere. He was much more aggressive in the corners and down low. he was able to generate play off the boards and controll the puck against strong checking better than any other time in his carreer.

He also fit in well with several players not just Kane. Noel even called him a "fix it" player slotting him in wherever a guy needed help generating offense.

The first or second highlight on his bio page is a great wexample of Welly fighting on the boards and creating something while under pressure. watch his highlight real and you'll see a great set of eyes and hands at work. plus the great intangible....Hockey sense. He seems to be able to psee where the puck will be not just where it is. Sure he's never gonna be a Rocket Richard trophy candidate, but playoffs and reg season alike he's good for a point every game or two and thats pretty good from a journeyman tweener who fits anywhere from 2nd line winger to 4th line centre. Also his faceoffs and D play are better than when he was aq leaf i think

I hated him before. used to call him cheesburger and mock leafs fans about him. when we got him i was angry. He turned me around fast last year.

Gryph 01-15-2013 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skidooboy (Post 57620933)

I hated him before. used to call him cheesburger and mock leafs fans about him. when we got him i was angry. He turned me around fast last year.

Many Leaf fans used to say the same thing. I remember him coming up as a prospect and stardom was literally at his fingertips. Of course that never happened and many Leafs fan placed the blame on his lack of desire to get himself in proper game shape.


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