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Ron Wilson* 01-14-2013 06:07 PM

Hockey Data and Sports Betting
 
Hello gentleman. I am currently unemployed. :laugh: Well technically. I make some supplemental income betting on sports. Most of my profit comes from NBA totals, and MLB moneylines. I do not play NFL spreads/totals. This year I am looking to add the NHL to add to my betting arsenal.

I am looking to start a think tank that relates to useful statistics with regards to puck line and money line NHL bets.

I am aware of the analytics and "moneypuck" threads on HF, but I would like to create a specific hockey capping thread. No picks in this thread, just a discussion on NHL betting systems, strategies, and overall capping.


Does anybody here bet on games? Would you care to share some tips?

I am looking at the basic stuff first, i.e. goalie stats, pp, pk, team discipline, etc...
but is there any other stats besides the basics that you NHL cappers use to cap games?

Thanks for any input

Bear of Bad News 01-14-2013 06:33 PM

There's definitely a market there and a chance for arbitrage, since the betting lines reflect the public's opinion and not the actual odds.

Having said that, the percentage of casual fans who bet on hockey is far less than football.

Most systems I've seen for hockey start with schedule-adjusted power ratings, and then adjust from there.

Ron Wilson* 01-14-2013 07:28 PM

Thanks Taco.

I will look at the rankings.

I am concentrating on special teams right now. I am going to create a model and back check the lines on teams with strong PP/PK vs. weak/average PP/PK. Going to focus on non public teams. Hopefully will find some correlation.

Canadiens1958 01-14-2013 10:23 PM

Loto - Quebec
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur (Post 57598643)
There's definitely a market there and a chance for arbitrage, since the betting lines reflect the public's opinion and not the actual odds.

Having said that, the percentage of casual fans who bet on hockey is far less than football.

Most systems I've seen for hockey start with schedule-adjusted power ratings, and then adjust from there.

Very popular in Quebec amongst casual hockey fans:

https://miseojeu.lotoquebec.com/en/b...hockey?idAct=1

Do not play, but the lockout cost the provincial government plenty.

Bear of Bad News 01-14-2013 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 (Post 57609817)
Very popular in Quebec amongst casual hockey fans:

https://miseojeu.lotoquebec.com/en/b...hockey?idAct=1

Do not play, but the lockout cost the provincial government plenty.

That may be, but it's dwarfed by football (pro and college) in North America.

And when the point is the amount of arbitrage that be squeezed from the sport, it's significant.

Mathletic 01-15-2013 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ron Wilson (Post 57597439)
Does anybody here bet on games? Would you care to share some tips?

Yes and no :D

there's a reference thread you could look at. There's sites like behind the net, hockeyanalysis etc. that could help you.

jughead42* 01-15-2013 12:29 PM

I've bet on hockey online plenty, and without question I make the most money betting in play. I'll look for a game where a good team is playing a poor team, yet for whatever reason the poor team is ahead early in the game. This happens more than you think when you factor in that good teams sometimes start slow against weak opponents, or maybe an unfortunate bounce early or a power play goal puts them temporarily behind. When these good teams are behind you can then get pretty good paying odds for them to come back. One goal in the NHL is nothing for a good team to make up. Of course there's always those situations where the good team doesn't come back, but that's gambling. Without question I've made the most money doing this. Screw the stats analysis, and all that mumbo jumbo. Find a team you believe in, wait until they fall behind early in a game they should win, and then drop a wad on them to come back. That's where its at with hockey, in play.

604 01-15-2013 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur (Post 57598643)
Most systems I've seen for hockey start with schedule-adjusted power ratings, and then adjust from there.

This is what I do plus a couple of back tested systems.

Last year my power rankings were great through mid-jan but trouble after that due to a change in the way the rules were being applied (actually stopped betting). The NHL is bad for stuff like that.

I would suggest you also look referees' records for home and road teams... Some are susceptible to crowd pressure and others are against.

Papa044 01-15-2013 02:48 PM

before each season I like to bet on teams over/unders for total points in regular season. for example, last year I bet on the Avalanche to earn more than 73 points in the season and won. these are the lines for this season...


ANA DUCKS REG SEASON PTS
o53-115
u53-115

BOS BRUINS REG SEASON PTS
o57-115
u57-115


BUF SABRES REG SEASON PTS
o 54 1/2 -120
u54-120

CAL FLAMES REG SEASON PTS
o50-120
u50-110

CAR HURRICANES REG SEASON PTS
o53-120
u53-110

CHI BLACKHAWKS REG SEASON PTS
o57-115
u57-115

COL AVALANCHE REG SEASON PTS
o52-115
u52-115


COL BLUEJACKETS REG SEASON PTS
o47+105
u47-135

DAL STARS REG SEASON PTS


o52-115
u52-115

DET RED WINGS REG SEASON PTS


o56-115
u56-115

EDM OILERS REG SEASON PTS
o53-115
u53-115

FLA PANTHERS REG SEASON PTS
o52-115
u52-115

LA KINGS REG SEASON PTS
o58-115
u58-115

MIN WILD REG SEASON PTS


o54-115
u54-115

MON CANADIENS REG SEASON PTS
o53-115
u53-115

NAS PREDATORS REG SEASON PTS


o53-115
u53-115

NJ DEVILS REGULAR SEASON PTS
o53-115
u53-115

NY ISLANDERS REG SEASON PTS

o49-115
u49-115

NY RANGERS REG SEASON PTS
o60-115
u60-115

OTT SENATORS REG SEASON PTS
o52-115
u52-115

PHI FLYERS REG SEASON PTS
o57-120
u57-110

PHO COYOTES REG SEASON PTS
o50-115
u50-115

PITT PENGUINS REG SEASON PTS
o61-120
u61-110

SJ SHARKS REG SEASON PTS
o54-115
u54-115

STL BLUES REG SEASON PTS
o57-115
u57-115


TB LIGHTNING REG SEASON PTS
o53-115
u53-115


TOR MAPLE LEAFS REG SEASON PTS
o53-115
u53-115

VAN CANUCKS REG SEASON PTS

o58-115
u58-115


WAS CAPITALS REG SEASON PTS
o54-115
u54-115


WIN JETS REG SEASON PTS
o50-115
u50-115

Bear of Bad News 01-15-2013 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Papa044 (Post 57637239)
these are the lines for this season...

(Thank you for removing the whitespace)

Can you source these? Different books have different lines.

Bomber0104 01-15-2013 04:13 PM

In the playoffs, I always find the historical outcomes of the various seedings (1 v 8 , 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5) as a useful place to start, then discount based on certain factors (head to head regular season results, injuries, home/away, etc) and hedge accordingly.

Pretty simple model....and it has been paying off

Papa044 01-15-2013 04:29 PM

I don't understand the post above

Bomber0104 01-15-2013 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Papa044 (Post 57642933)
I don't understand the post above

I use information to determine the outcome of playoff series and individual games.

WarriorOfGandhi 01-15-2013 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bomber0104 (Post 57643505)
I use information to determine the outcome of playoff series and individual games.

what are you, a doctor? Give it to me straight, man, and cut out the mumbo-jumbo!

Bomber0104 01-15-2013 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarriorOfGandhi (Post 57645565)
what are you, a doctor? Give it to me straight, man, and cut out the mumbo-jumbo!

As I stated two posts ago, I use historical data to arrive at a strict percentage probability of the 2nd seed being able to beat the 7th place seed, for example...

I may discount either seeding's historical odds based on current-season factors such as head-to-head records, notable injuries, home-away records, a strong regular season finish, and other smaller variables.

More money is bet on more certain outcomes while less money is bet on less certain outcomes in order to hedge my exposure to risk and in turn losses.

Ron Wilson* 01-18-2013 12:56 AM

Love the live in play betting, can definetely see an angle there.

NHL lines are soft as it is compared to NFL and NBA, doubt books can watch games
on NHL, they prob just have auto adjust software.

I usually do my capping the night before, and as soon as the Pinnacle lines are out I smash the public teams if I bet them, or wait till last minute to bet dogs to get the better lines. Makes a big difference overall.

One thing about hockey over the other sports is there is rarely any quit in a team. Even if down 5-0 they play till the last second. In NBA, they down by 11+ with a few minutes to go and they get really lazy. That's why I never bet totals in NBA. Just too much luck involved. NBA players have almost no restrictions on road trips. A lot of the guys go out and drink late the night before a road game. NHL players are pretty much on lockdown in the hotel rooms. Well, the last 10 or so years anyway.

I remember Tie Domi and Belfour going out nights before games and "having fun".

OG Kuch 01-20-2013 08:03 PM

Pinnacle is great, it sucks that I can't use it now that I live in the states.

EVBetting Site 01-24-2013 03:48 AM

If you want to be a successful NHL bettor over the long run then you will need to throw out all the useless stats you have been mentioning and are being mentioned in this thread. To understand the lines you need to really understand the game of hockey and, more specifically, the coaching aspect of it. Matchups are what this game is all about. Line changes of 15+ cents are always (almost) due to sharps hammering a side due to a lineup change or injury.

Do not make the mistake of thinking that casual money makes much of a difference (especially on big time books like pinny) it takes probably 500-1000 casual bettors to move a line even a few cents, while one big bet on an offline from the sharks out there can move it 5-10 cents. You can toy around with smaller markets (there are some capped at $200 for example) to see how much influence a max bet can have at different times of the lifetime that line is up for.

Today's Pittsburgh game was a good example of that. Literally almost all the bets from the public came in on Pittsburg today but the line moved only maybe 10 cents. 15 minutes before puck drop, I would guess that less than 50 big bets came in from sharps on Toronto, dropping the price back down about 15 cents. The public influence on these game (even this extreme example today) just isn't very large. It took the whole betting public (80+%) to move the line just 10 cents and then it was hammered back at a good number by the sharks instantly.

I'm kind of just rambling right now but betting is obviously very complex. I will say this also though. Don't try to cap the winner of the game. This is what 99+% of people think is what the goal of betting is. You are not trying to pick the winner of the game. You are trying to get your bet in at a good number. If you don't understand this concept then you need to learn it and understand it or you won't even have a chance in this game in the long run. It's not about picking winners or knowing who will win or anything like that. Its literally all about getting your bet in at the best number you can.

I'll be frequenting this thread a lot in the near future and I'd ramble some more but it's 3am and I just finished my lab so I can sleep now

RedeyeRocketeer 01-27-2013 10:01 AM

^^^^good post.

Where are people live betting mostly? Do they typically just pick a marquee game for live betting, like they do for NFL?

So far this year I'm having the most success with team goal totals.

Bear of Bad News 01-27-2013 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk (Post 58215679)
If you want to be a successful NHL bettor over the long run then you will need to throw out all the useless stats you have been mentioning and are being mentioned in this thread.

It's not an either/or thing.

Saying otherwise will lead others down the wrong path (although I understand that this would give you a competitive advantage, so kudos).

For what it's worth, what are the "useless stats" being mentioned here? Please list them. Looking back on the thread, I don't see very many specific statistics listed at all.

EVBetting Site 01-27-2013 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur (Post 58447195)
It's not an either/or thing.

Saying otherwise will lead others down the wrong path (although I understand that this would give you a competitive advantage, so kudos).

For what it's worth, what are the "useless stats" being mentioned here? Please list them. Looking back on the thread, I don't see very many specific statistics listed at all.

I guess just mainly the PK/PP stuff that was being mentioned. Also the historical 2v7, 3v6 etc seeding matchup stuff.

In my opinion all of that stuff is useless and can really lead you down the wrong road. There are many useful stats out there but every stat needs a thorough understanding of context and what it truly represents at its core. However, unlike the other major sports, no statistical analysis (I think, perhaps a very, very thorough one) can come up with an accurate line on a game.

I think a matchup analysis of personnel and coaching philosophies is the best way to approach creating a line, rather than look at numbers that fluctuate and don't represent actual ability or predict future results until thousands of minutes are recorded in that situation.

For example, here is a write up I did on a pre-season matchup from I think 2 years ago between the Wings and the Flyers

Valtteri Filppula-Henrik Zetterberg-Johan Franzen
Justin Abdelkader-Darren Helm-Todd Bertuzzi
Gustav Nyqvist-Joakim Andersson-Willie Coetzee
Tomas Jurco-Brent Raedeke-Francis Pare

Nicklas Lidstrom-Ian White
Jonathan Ericsson-Jakub Kindl
Brian Lashoff-Doug Janik

Ty Conklin
Jordan Pearce

vs

TBD

Just strictly looking at the Red Wing roster for this game, this is quite possibly the softest lineup the Red Wings could ice both at the forward position and on defense.

A "skill" 1st, 3rd and 4th lines are a recipe for disaster, especially when the 2nd line cannot eat up more than 15+ hard minutes like they will be playing in this game. Basically, there is not enough sheltered ice time to go around. The saving grace for them is Helm who is (in my opinion) the Wings 2nd most valuable forward at his role, behind only Datsyuk now. However, he has to carry a liability in Bertuzzi, who just doesnt fit on this line. Both Helm and Abby are going to be using their speed and bodies in a chip and chase forechecking game, which leaves Bertuzzi in no-mans-land. He is one of the slowest players in the league and needs a player like Zetterberg who plays more of a slow, controlled enter the zone and set up the cycle kind of game. Bertuzzi's best assets are probably his hands and size but he won't be able to utilize either on this line. Neither Abby nor Helm are snipers, nor do they have much puck skill, so it seems like just a bad mix of personnel.
The 3rd and 4th lines are going to be liabilities defensively every time they touch the ice. Gustav Nyqvist is the closest to NHL ready, but it's very difficult to anchor a line from the wing position. There just won't be enough center presence down low in the defensive zone, which is something the D look like they will need this game.
Finally, I'm probably one of the few who are down on Henrik Zetterberg. I love the guy, he's one of my favorite players but injuries have really hampered him. He has lost 2 steps over the last year and he can't shoot the puck anymore. His best shot is now his backhand, which is still decent, but only so many goals can be scored on your backhand. He used to be a threat on the rush and in transition, but now he is extremely easy to neutralize. A combination of being slow and not having a shot threat means defenders can just angle him to the outside and force him to pass it off. This is the reason that Hank's goalscoring has dropped the last 2 years. His back is really killing his shot and speed. I would dare say that Hank would be in tough to score 20 goals this year (and last year) if not for Pavel Datsyuk. Hank can't play power on power anymore, unlike what some people think after watching him match up with Crosby back to back in the SCF. He needs good winger support now, and good support from the D to be effective. Thankfully, it looks like he'll have that this game. Filppula, in particular, is a player who has the tools to take his game to the next level. He really needs to step up this year and probably become the Wing's 2nd best forward, but I've been waiting for him to do that for 2 seasons now.

On D, sure it probably looks strong for a preseason game on paper, but I expect them to be exposed tonight by a big, depth Flyers team. In my opinion, Detroit is missing it's two best ES and PK defenders this game, which are exactly the types of players that you want to have against a team like Philly. Couple this with the fact that this will be the first game that Nick and newly acquired Ian White play together, it will take some time for them to get on the same page. I expect White to be deferring to Lidstrom frequently tonight, even in situations where there is a better play to be made.
And quite frankly, Nick has declined. Last season was the first season in a long time that I didn't think he was at least a top 5 defender in the league. Honestly, I feel Kronwall is ready to surpass him and take over the Wings #1. This is coming from Lidstrom's biggest fan since the lockout. He was my model-defender, the gold standard that I measured others up to. Ironic, he won another Norris last year, but strictly off reputation and PP effectiveness, which he should still excell at this season. He is still a valuable player as a top 4 Dman obviously.
Kindl is going to be no more than a bottom pairing Dman in the league, and very mediocre at ES. Ericsson has shown flashes of being worth his new contract but needs to bring it consistently (I believe that he will take a stride forward this year). Of the top 4 dressing tonight, no one is really able to contain a cycle down low, which is the kind of game that Philly thrives at. It's really just a bad matchup.

Conklin is one of the better backups in the league, though. He should be better than the Flyer's goalie tonight.

There are a lot of "name NHLers" playing for the Wings tonight, but it is a bad matchup against Philly. This play will hinge on the roster that Philly dresses for this game as, obviously, they could put out garbage and the Wings take handily. Key players that I'm looking for:
1. Coburn, big physical defender with a good first pass and can transition nicely. He matches up well with every one of Detroits lines.
2. JVR, again a big body winger with speed, something that the Detroit D really lack this game. He will basically be free to put perimeter pressure on the Wing's defenders and drive them back deep in their zone, allowing the Flyers to set up possesion.
3. Nylander, for opposite reasons. If Nylander dresses, it makes me like Detroit a little more in this game. He will play the same game as Detroit's 1,3,4 Lines, which allows Detroit to match and beat with superior players.
4. Carle/Meszaros/Giroux/Briere - Obviously, just above average NHL talents.
5. Goaltender (Bobrovsky is a +, Leighton sucks. Bryz won't play back to backs in the preseason)


After you have gone through the possibly matchups you have to dissect the possible routes that the game will go. If, say, Philly struggles early then a mix up of personnel might happen. Who will go with who and what can Detroit do to maintain an edge over that. Do they have an easy line or pairing that can neutralize it instantly? etc etc

After that I think you have to create a line based on all the possibilities and compare it to the line offered by the book. Obviously, bet any discrepancies.

The key, obviously, is remaining completely unbiased and objective during this process. Bias can completely skewer and crush you in this game.

RoyalOrange 01-28-2013 10:02 AM

This season is unique because of the lockout, which is why my interest has been piqued. I usually only bet on football and basketball, but I keep my eyes open for opportunities, and abnormalities like this hockey season are opportunities for gamblers.

In the NBA's shortened season last year, a lot of money was won betting on the total point unders. I was hoping to see if any trends pop up for this similarly shortened hockey season. Vegas is on their heels in these abnormal seasons because they don't have historical data that will match up as well. Has anyone else been keeping their eye out for something unique to this season?

EVBetting Site 01-28-2013 12:20 PM

Due to the shortened season or not, PP opportunities are up and, thus, scoring is up, if only slightly. Books are adjusting though and O/U 6 is not uncommon at the moment. Few games are set at 5, which the majority of playoff games were set at to end last season.

Defensive structure and even defensive ability is something that takes a few weeks to get back so expect scoring to trend downwards as the season progresses, when players are better conditioned (especially on back to backs - even STL gave up 4 goals on their B2B, Philly got rocked for 5, etc).

I doubt Vegas/books run mathematical models to set their lines; in fact I know for sure that they don't. Their lines are a reflection of around ~10ish of their top oddsmakers opinions averaged out (for smaller markets, maybe just 2-3). Historical data is, for the most part, meaningless.

RoyalOrange 01-28-2013 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk (Post 58528669)
Due to the shortened season or not, PP opportunities are up and, thus, scoring is up, if only slightly. Books are adjusting though and O/U 6 is not uncommon at the moment. Few games are set at 5, which the majority of playoff games were set at to end last season.

Defensive structure and even defensive ability is something that takes a few weeks to get back so expect scoring to trend downwards as the season progresses, when players are better conditioned (especially on back to backs - even STL gave up 4 goals on their B2B, Philly got rocked for 5, etc).

I doubt Vegas/books run mathematical models to set their lines; in fact I know for sure that they don't. Their lines are a reflection of around ~10ish of their top oddsmakers opinions averaged out (for smaller markets, maybe just 2-3). Historical data is, for the most part, meaningless.

Good insight in the first 2 paragraphs. That's the kind of things I would love to discuss and where there may be some margins.

I'm inclined, however, to wholeheartedly disagree with your 3rd paragraph. I know for a fact that one of the largest books in Vegas does indeed use mathematical models and algorithms to set their lines. These lines are of course looked at by expert oddsmakers and adjusted accordingly, if necessary. This information is coming straight from the mouth of the man that runs the entire operation. But historical data is absolutely meaningful, that's how all lines are set in all sports. They don't just grab numbers out of thin air.

Mathletic 01-28-2013 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk (Post 58528669)
I doubt Vegas/books run mathematical models to set their lines; in fact I know for sure that they don't. Their lines are a reflection of around ~10ish of their top oddsmakers opinions averaged out (for smaller markets, maybe just 2-3). Historical data is, for the most part, meaningless.

I think your view of sports betting is a bit too romantic :P Cantor gaming uses almost solely computers to make their lines. They had a report on E60 about them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYaZjLm72L8

Even though it mostly talked about live betting it's still true for their lines before games. They may have a few people who oversee the operations but lines are set by comptuers for the most part nowadays. Pinnacle uses the same lines as Cantor and they're doing pretty good except with the FBI maybe but that's another story :)

We're past the days when people could gather around and make better decisions. Models have been refined over the years and big data has become much more available and people have made good use of it whether it's for sports betting or make better business decisions.


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