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-   -   Winnipeg Jets 2013 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference) (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1324453)

garret9 01-15-2013 11:23 PM

Winnipeg Jets 2013 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference)
 
WINNIPEG JETS LINEUP

LWCRW
Andrew LaddBryan LittleBlake Wheeler
Evander KaneOlli JokinenKyle Wellwood
Eric Tangradi Alexander BurmistrovMike Santorelli
James Wright Aaron Gagnon Chris Thorburn
LDRD
Ron HainseyZach Bogosian
Grant ClitsomeDustin Byfuglien
Mark StuartPaul Postma
G
Ondrej Pavelec
Al Montoya

Current Injuries:
Tobias Enstrom - upper body; "day-to-day"
Zach Redmond - lower body; ETA: recently cleared for practice
Anthony Peluso - broken hand; ETA: "day-to-day"
Jim Slater - upper body; "week-to-week"
Nikolai Antropov - lower body; "week-to-week"

Current Healthy Scratches:
Derek Meech
Antti Miettinen
Artūrs Kulda

Traded/Waived:
Alexei Ponikarovsky

*I'll try to keep this updated as much as possible with any line changes changes, call-ups, etc. (mods feel free to change as you wish)
*You can click the name of each player to go each players individual stats breakdowns which I will also try to keep updated and link the new ones when they come up.
*On this thread I'll post team stats or comparing our players in how each is doing on PP, PK, etc.
*I highly encourage anyone to add their own work, stats, interpretations, etc. I remember there was a thread last season that was sticky'd. The more input the better!



Stats I Usually Use:

Usage Stats:
QoC: quality of competition - how tough of matchup they are lined up against can be measured by opponents Corsi, RelCorsi or TOI (the later two end up giving similar results, first one varies a bit) - I usually use the second one as the third one is tough to get a hold of
OZS
: offensive zone starts - percentage of shifts started in the o-zone rather d-zone

Results Stats:
Fenwick - differential like +/- but includes shots on goal and missed shots; usually per 60 TOI unless stated - good for team results as has a strong correlation to scoring chances, puck possession time and winning games - used instead of Corsi for teams as blocked shots is sometimes a team strategy (see NYR)
Corsi - same as Fenwick but includes blocked shots - better than Fenwick for individuals as you have more events (ie: larger sample size)
RelCorsi - players Corsi relative to teams average for games played which helps minimize team affects when comparing players from two different teams - ex: if you have a Corsi of +3 in a game where your team had a Corsi of +1, your RelCorsi would be +2
P (or A1 or G)/60 - its a players points (or primary assists or goals) per 60 minutes of icetime, as a players icetime can make their totals seem insignificant or better than they are (ex: Kane scored more goals per minute than Kessel last season in both ES and PP, but Kessel had more TOI and his totals were much more)



Statistical References and Websites:

Arctic Ice Hockey - Winnipeg Jets blog that commonly dips into advance statistics
Behind The Net - site that draws NHL.com stats and places it into adv. stats
Nice Time on Ice - another raw data site (but different) like Behind the Net
Hockey Analysis - third raw data site I (and others) commonly use
NHL Numbers - a NHL blog that also leans on advance statistics
Jets Nation - the Jets section of NHL Numbers (emphasis on Robert Cleave's work)

Arctic Ice Hockey was originally an advance statistics blog started up by Winnipegger Gabe (same guy who runs Behind the Net), and so has a lot of information on the advance statistics themselves in our archives. Our editors recently organized all the pre-Jets 2.0 advance stats write ups.
We recently organized all the old writeups on advance statistics and what they mean ->HERE<-

garret9 01-15-2013 11:23 PM

Special Teams 2011-12

Penalty Kill
This has already been done by Truck on AIH but I thought I would re-do this for a little preview of what's to come but also to see where our new guys fit in. With Pearn I'm sure our PK will improve as a team, but the team's best and worst will probably still stay the same.

Forwards
NameTOI/60SA/60GA/60Corsi
Slater 2.14 48.9 10.07 -111.49
Antropov 1.78 42.6 05.38 -075.85
Burmistrov 1.77 37.5 05.36 -062.92
Ladd 1.52 40.1 05.31 -064.70
Little 1.48 48.2 07.67 -074.48
Miettinen 0.91 44.1 02.94 -067.62
Thorburn 0.48 44.8 10.35 -111.57
Ponikarovsky 0.25 34.8 05.80 -043.48
*When you consider that Glass' numbers were just as bad as Slaters, Ponikarovsky is looking like a huge upgrade on him, although the TOI makes me wonder if the sample size is statistically significant enough
*No surprise that Burmistrov, Ladd and Antropov were the best PK regulars
*No surprise that GST members had some trouble and were the team's weak links
*Was surprise Little had a lot of trouble since he's very quality defensively and has some speed on him

Defence
NameTOI/60SA/60GA/60Corsi
Bogosian 2.85 43.0 07.12 -093.51
Stuart 2.78 48.8 09.44 -102.46
Hainsey 2.50 47.5 08.99 -093.33
Enstrom 1.15 44.5 09.24 -078.13
Clitsome 0.78 37.6 12.14 -064.35
*No surprise that Bogosian and Hainsey were solid
*No surprise that Stuart was the weak link of the regulars
*Clitsome's results are interesting as the shots are severely reduced but the goals are high; keep in mind this combines both the CBJ and WPG results


Power Play
Forwards
NameTOI/60G/60A1/60P/60Corsi
Jokinen 3.02 2.18 2.43 5.82 76.19
Little 2.61 2.17 0.93 4.35 81.37
Wheeler 2.51 1.50 1.80 4.49 85.01
Ladd 2.45 1.49 0.90 2.98 81.07
Kane 2.16 1.50 1.88 3.39 84.27
Antropov 1.95 1.79 1.79 4.02 64.81
Wellwood 1.89 1.65 1.65 3.30 76.80
Burmistrov 1.22 0.65 0.00 1.95 71.45
*No surprise that Jokinen, Little, Wheeler, Wellwood are pretty good on the PP
*Little bit surprised that Antropov is so high and Ladd is still low
*Poor Burmistrov wasn't ready for the PP I guess; hopefully he kills it this year as it's an excellent source of points

Defence
NameTOI/60G/60A1/60P/60Corsi
Byfuglien 3.27 0.84 1.67 4.73 82.12
Enstrom 3.09 0.63 0.63 3.45 78.04
Bogosian 2.40 0.38 1.54 2.69 86.05
Clitsome 1.87 0.51 1.51 2.54 77.27
*All 4 guys did pretty good
*You can see the structure of how Enstrom has high A2 from passing to Buff/Bogo who have high A1 from taking huge blasts at the point and someone picking up the rebound
*Clitsome is pretty surprising but he does have a boom of a shot
*It will bee interesting to see where Postma fits

garret9 01-15-2013 11:47 PM

When I talk about stats, I talk a lot about usage. Usage is important because it puts accomplishments in perspective; someone who does ok with easy minutes may not necessarily be better than someone who does poorly under tougher minutes.

The two main stats that people use is Quality of Competition (QoC) and Offensive Zone Starts (OZS%).
QoC: as it names sounds it's a measurement showing the level of players you are facing; there are 4 different ways to measure QoC usually by Relative Corsi (Corsi relative to team's average), Corsi (+/- that includes shots, narrowly missed shots and blocked shots, which estimates possession time), +/- (not really used for QoC anymore) and TOI of the opponents ;the higher the number is the tougher the competition
OZS: just the percentage of times a person starts their in the offensive zone; it's been shown that changing this (and QoC) will affect players Corsi and scoring production; the more offensively you are pushed the easier your minutes



Here is a Player Usage Chart by Rob Volman (of Hockey Prospectus, ESPN, NHLNumbers.com and Arctic Ice Hockey):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BAtV2gJCUAAH78q.jpg:large
It is a visual representation of the two stats above. The circles are the players Corsi where the size means a larger number, positive is blue and negative is white or empty.
The top right players are your two-way guys, top left are your defensive guys, and bottom right are your sheltered scoring guys (this is by usage, not skill sets).



For those who don't like the #fancystats Eric T. (of NHLNumbers.com) did competition levels based on the TOI of the opponents and split the D from the F:
http://nhlnumbers.com/uploads/Image/Winnipeg.PNG
It's interesting to see:
*GST faced the toughest forwards, then LLW, so that Kane's line can be sheltered
*Even with Kane's line being sheltered from tough forwards, the other team still lined up their better defensemen more often than GST/Stapleton's-Line
*GST, Miettinen and Stapleton were not considered major threats by the other team as they never saw tough D

Bob E 01-16-2013 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 57661645)
It's interesting to see:
*GST faced the toughest forwards, then LLW, so that Kane's line can be sheltered
*Even with Kane's line being sheltered from tough forwards, the other team still lined up their better defensemen more often than GST/Stapleton's-Line
*GST, Miettinen and Stapleton were not considered major threats by the other team as they never saw tough D

Shocker! :sarcasm:

Kane almost outscored GST, Mittens and Timmy Stapes (30 vs 38) by himself. I wonder what teams will do this year vs. Kane. Top shut down pair against him and Ollie? Or LLW? I do think LLW will get more favorable match-ups, which could help them. They might be the key to the season. They can't afford to be in a slump early on. No one can, i suppose.

garret9 01-16-2013 12:35 AM

This is everyone's Fenwick Close number. It is similar to Corsi where it is a goal/shot differential and estimates possession time. The Close in the title specifies that it's only a measurement when the game is close (less than 2 goal difference); the reason for this is both teams act differently when the game is pretty far apart as the losing team takes risks and the winning team goes into shutdown mode. It's also a decent predictor of success (although doesn't include goaltenders influence at all). It was how advance stat guys were saying early that STL and LA were better than they were doing and Minnesota was going to collapse. *called it*

TEAMTOTALHOMEAWAY
STL 55.07 57.93 52.27
PIT 55.02 56.62 53.53
DET 54.39 57.94 51.49
LAK 53.60 55.02 52.12
CHI 52.82 52.89 52.75
BOS 52.60 54.19 50.92
SJS 52.19 53.18 51.23
VAN 51.44 51.61 51.25
PHI 51.14 52.76 49.28
NJD 51.08 52.27 49.84
WPG 51.05 53.46 48.62
OTT 50.90 51.74 50.03
FLA 50.35 52.40 48.06
NYR 49.90 51.66 48.17
COL 49.77 51.35 48.00
WSH 49.71 51.72 47.64
DAL 49.51 50.70 48.26
NYI 49.18 50.03 48.49
PHX 49.17 50.11 48.20
TBL 48.31 51.63 45.05
CAR 48.17 50.21 46.15
ANA 48.12 47.25 48.94
BUF 48.10 49.77 46.49
EDM 48.08 49.97 46.40
CBJ 47.53 51.27 44.43
CGY 47.47 51.24 44.01
MTL 46.81 47.78 45.90
TOR 46.70 47.48 45.78
NSH 46.08 47.41 44.68
MIN 44.91 45.45 44.36
It does show the WPG home and away discrepancy.
Nashville is the only head scratcher but I think it may because they go into "shutdown mode" earlier than most teams (ex: lead of one goal instead of two) so they are getting outchanced more but the danger isn't equivelent. (Totally just guessing here)

Sweech 01-16-2013 03:05 AM

As for Little's PK numbers. I think him and Ladd are the PK pairing and I'm guessing when Ladd was in the box Little was paired with Glass or Slater who may have dragged down his numbers.

garret9 01-16-2013 09:58 PM

Updated the Fenwick Close table as it had a few issues and broke it down a bit better.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Here's another Player Usage Chart from Rob Volman...
It's the same idea as the first one but it uses the TOI metric in Eric. T's work instead of the RelQoC metric.


https://docs.google.com/viewer?pid=s...umber=27&w=800

Gil Fisher 01-17-2013 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 57711651)
Updated the Fenwick Close table as it had a few issues and broke it down a bit better.


We seem to be fairly high on that list. Um. So it's a predictor of success? Is it upside-down?

truck 01-17-2013 12:21 PM

Another Stats Preview by former AIH writer Ben Wendorf

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/3/2012-...ossession-wise

truck 01-17-2013 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gil Fisher (Post 57735199)
We seem to be fairly high on that list. Um. So it's a predictor of success? Is it upside-down?

The chart is right side up. The Jets were a decent possession team most of the year.

This is why pretty much every stats person says Pavi was the problem. If every goalie stopped the same percentage of shots against, the Jets would have been in the playoffs.

garret9 01-17-2013 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gil Fisher (Post 57735199)
We seem to be fairly high on that list. Um. So it's a predictor of success? Is it upside-down?

Basically what this shows is an approximate average of where teams would fall if every goalie was a machine that allowed equal amount of goals.

Also, this is an average, it shows the season mean and no standard deviation or the shape. A teams points come from how many games you win, so winning a lot of games by a little and few games by a lot is much better than win a a few games by a lot and a lot of games by a little.

Of course also add in goalies aren't equal and variable game-to-game.

But, it does give a good idea of the general strength of a team and also is the strongest deterent about D being the major cause of our poor GA and not Pavs/Mason. Of course, it takes a whole team, but this is the major piece of evidence the main fault lies on Pavs/Mason.

garret9 01-18-2013 02:11 PM

Sent down Meech, Machacek and Macenauer...

Will update with Stuart and Slater breakdown tonight for tomorrow... Maybe Clitsome too if time.

sully1410 01-18-2013 06:08 PM

Anybody else think that Scheifele is wasted on the fourth line.

garret9 01-18-2013 06:13 PM

Stuart's breakdown added... now onto Slater


Quote:

Originally Posted by sully1410 (Post 57808811)
Anybody else think that Scheifele is wasted on the fourth line.

hey lineup ain't official yet!

sully1410 01-18-2013 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 57809077)
Stuart's breakdown added... now onto Slater




hey lineup ain't official yet!

I read it one Noel's interview I think...as well as here. Its just a weird placement, for a guy who's role on the team is a goal scorer. I guess we'll see how he does down there. Worked out pretty well for couturier.

HellasLEAF 01-18-2013 06:38 PM

what do you guys see out of Little this year. is he the top centre and top pp??

garret9 01-18-2013 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HellasLEAF (Post 57810239)
what do you guys see out of Little this year. is he the top centre and top pp??

Click the Little link...
IMHO we'll run a 2a/2b system where Little and Jokinen's line will get similar TOI. Little will face more of the tougher competition. Jokinen may get used on the PP point or 2nd or 1st... tough call on the PP.

fergiesbeak 01-18-2013 07:28 PM

if scheifle is in the staring lineup i bet peluso is as well

WJG 01-18-2013 07:36 PM

For the 5 games Scheifele is up with the team, I'd like to see him play 2nd line RW with Kane and Jokinen.

IMO, we can't really tell what he's capable of playing 4th line minutes with Slater and Thorburn.

sully1410 01-18-2013 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WJG (Post 57812563)
For the 5 games Scheifele is up with the team, I'd like to see him play 2nd line RW with Kane and Jokinen.

IMO, we can't really tell what he's capable of playing 4th line minutes with Slater and Thorburn.

My thoughts as well

garret9 01-18-2013 07:49 PM

I'm not putting my ideas for lines, I'm just placing them (and updating them) as Noel does. I just used practice lines for the above, since no games have been played yet.

Guerzy 01-18-2013 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WJG (Post 57812563)
For the 5 games Scheifele is up with the team, I'd like to see him play 2nd line RW with Kane and Jokinen.

IMO, we can't really tell what he's capable of playing 4th line minutes with Slater and Thorburn.

Agree.

garret9 01-18-2013 08:06 PM

Slater's link added as I've made the Slater thread...

Ramsalot 01-18-2013 10:18 PM

I popped into the Habs board and saw this

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/20...t-and-age.html

Successfully added size much? The tallest lineup in the league! Also 4th heaviest and in a tie for second youngest.

sipowicz 01-18-2013 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 57660813)
WINNIPEG JETS LINEUP
[table="head;width=800"]LW|

Current Healthy Scratches:

James White

Come on Garret, it's Wright not White!:rant:


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