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-   -   Prospect Info: Rangers Prospect Poll: #13 (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1325859)

Beacon 01-17-2013 03:56 PM

Rangers Prospect Poll: #13
 
Kyle Jean easily won round 12. RW Shane McColgan is added to the next poll.

Please write who you want added to the poll, and give a reason for it. This makes the discussion here more lively.


TOP PROSPECTS

1. LW Chris Kreider
2. LW Carl Hagelin
3. C J.T. Miller
4. D Dylan McIlrath
5. D Brady Skjei


SECOND TIER

6. RW Jesper Fast
7. C Oscar Lindberg
8. LW Marek Hrivik
9. RW Christian Thomas
10. C Michael St. Croix
11. C Cristoval Nieves


PROJECTS

12. LW Kyle Jean


Kyle Jean
Left Wing
Born Mar 1 1990 -- Sault Ste. Marie, MI
Height 6.04 -- Weight 203 -- Shoots L

2012-13 Connecticut Whale AHL 38 8 10 18 25

http://www.blueseatblogs.com/wp-cont.../kyle-jean.jpg

Beacon 01-17-2013 03:59 PM

Voted for Sam Noreau because even a third pair defenseman is more valuable than a bottom-6 forward (Fogarty potential) or a backup goalie (Talbot potential). Plus, he's going to have more points this year than in all 3 prior years of junior hockey combined. Noreau is a good skater and a punishing fighter. I like him.

Add Yogi the Bear. Not sure how Foggy is getting votes while he's not even on the list.

silverfish 01-17-2013 04:12 PM

Fogarty. Add Bourque

bernmeister 01-17-2013 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beacon (Post 57749211)
Voted for Sam Noreau because even a third pair defenseman is more valuable than a bottom-6 forward (Fogarty potential) or a backup goalie (Talbot potential). Plus, he's going to have more points this year than in all 3 prior years of junior hockey combined. Noreau is a good skater and a punishing fighter. I like him.

Add Yogi the Bear. Not sure how Foggy is getting votes while he's not even on the list.

This^.
Add Yogan, still has upside scoring potential.
Also pls add Pashnin, Parlett

E-Train 01-17-2013 04:19 PM

Noreau. Add Yogan

BrooklynRangersFan 01-17-2013 04:20 PM

Noreau. Looked good (but limited) in TC a couple of years back, which was my only viewing of him, but you cannot ignore progression like he's shown this year. Throw in the fact that he is nearly as fearsome as McIlrath (some would argue more polished) with the mitts and he's an easy choice here.

Add Yogan.

eco's bones 01-17-2013 04:21 PM

Talbot. Yogan. IMO arguably Talbot is Connecticut's MVP so far this year.

BBKers 01-17-2013 04:29 PM

Add Mashinter if eligible
If not add Zuccarello :naughty:

Beacon 01-17-2013 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eco's bones (Post 57750371)
Talbot. Yogan. IMO arguably Talbot is Connecticut's MVP so far this year.

He would've been the team's MVP if he didn't let in an occasional bad goal. Just last game. he was tremendous the whole game except for one horrendous goal. Needs to take care of that.

we want cup 01-17-2013 04:42 PM

Noreau, add Yogan.

mrjimmyg89 01-17-2013 04:57 PM

Ceresnak looked good in the WJC to me. Looked better offensively than advertised. Add Yogan

Zil 01-17-2013 05:35 PM

Andersson, add Spelling

Rangers_23 01-17-2013 05:53 PM

"The Island of Doctor" Noreau. Add Yogan.

Beacon 01-17-2013 06:29 PM

This might be a very close round, potentially 3-way.

HatTrick Swayze 01-17-2013 06:51 PM

Fogarty has way more than bottom 6 potential. Great hands and vision. Check out some of the goals he scored in the BCHL last year.

Add Spelling.

Beacon 01-17-2013 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57758157)
Fogarty has way more than bottom 6 potential. Great hands and vision. Check out some of the goals he scored in the BCHL last year.

Add Spelling.


Yeah, check out some of the goals that I scored in the beer league playing against a bunch of middle aged men with beer guts who have regular jobs instead of practicing!

Who cares about being able to score in the BCHL? It's a BS league. Any draftee looks good down there because his opposition is total garbage that will never be good enough to play in the ECHL and is likely looking forward to trying to make the Brooklyn Aviators team. He was only #6 on his team during the regular season and #8 during the playoffs. Combining the regular season and the playoffs, he was #7 on his team. None of that is very impressive.

Compare him to Nieves, who's the same size and a year younger. Nieves is a first liner. Sure, his team is weaker, but not because of their fowards. Michigan scores as much as Notre Dame, they just give up 3.5 goals a game (and almost 5 a game against other CCHA teams) due to bad defense and terrible goaltending. Nieves would've been a top-6 player on Notre Dame had he played for that team. Foggy is barely a player there. Maybe on a weaker team, he'd have been a third liner, but there's no tier-1 team where he does what Nieves has done this year, while being a year younger.

There's absolutely no reason to believe Foggy has top-6 NHL potential.

Rangerfan4life90 01-17-2013 07:54 PM

Fogarty absolutely has potential to be a top six forward.

Bird Law 01-17-2013 07:58 PM

Noreau. Add whoever you feel like. As long as it's not Bourque.

HatTrick Swayze 01-17-2013 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beacon (Post 57760883)
Yeah, check out some of the goals that I scored in the beer league playing against a bunch of middle aged men with beer guts who have regular jobs instead of practicing!

Who cares about being able to score in the BCHL? It's a BS league. Any draftee looks good down there because his opposition is total garbage that will never be good enough to play in the ECHL and is likely looking forward to trying to make the Brooklyn Aviators team. He was only #6 on his team during the regular season and #8 during the playoffs. Combining the regular season and the playoffs, he was #7 on his team. None of that is very impressive.

Compare him to Nieves, who's the same size and a year younger. Nieves is a first liner. Sure, his team is weaker, but not because of their fowards. Michigan scores as much as Notre Dame, they just give up 3.5 goals a game (and almost 5 a game against other CCHA teams) due to bad defense and terrible goaltending. Nieves would've been a top-6 player on Notre Dame had he played for that team. Foggy is barely a player there. Maybe on a weaker team, he'd have been a third liner, but there's no tier-1 team where he does what Nieves has done this year, while being a year younger.

There's absolutely no reason to believe Foggy has top-6 NHL potential.

BCHL is a beer league? Ok buddy. Is the USHL a beer league? It may not mean as much as an OHL or NCAA season but "beer league" is ridiculous hyperbole. Look if point rankings and line rankings are your sole basis for evaluating prospects there is nothing to discuss. Let's hear your algorithm for predicting players so that we can just get a definitive list and call it a day.

How about how Jeff Jackson runs the most defensive system in the NCAA? There is no chance Nieves would have been a top-6 center on a defensive team over Anders Lee and TJ Tynan. Nieves walked into a great developmental situation on a terrible team. It's comparing apples to oranges.

I would never say that Fogarty is likely to reach his top-end potential, which is a 50pt defensive forward, but it's there. He was one of the most skilled players I have seen come through MN HS hockey in recent years, though extremely unrefined. The reason to see his potential is called using your eyes instead of pure statistics. He's a 3-4 year college player.

Bird Law 01-17-2013 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
BCHL is a beer league? Ok buddy. Is the USHL a beer league? It may not mean as much as an OHL or NCAA season but "beer league" is ridiculous hyperbole. Look if point rankings and line rankings are your sole basis for evaluating prospects there is nothing to discuss. Let's hear your algorithm for predicting players so that we can just get a definitive list and call it a day.

How about how Jeff Jackson runs the most defensive system in the NCAA? There is no chance Nieves would have been a top-6 center on a defensive team over Anders Lee and TJ Tynan. Nieves walked into a great developmental situation on a terrible team. It's comparing apples to oranges.

I would never say that Fogarty is likely to reach his top-end potential, which is a 50pt defensive forward, but it's there. He was one of the most skilled players I have seen come through MN HS hockey in recent years, though extremely unrefined. The reason to see his potential is called using your eyes instead of pure statistics. He's a 3-4 year college player.

Agreed. Fogarty is a long-term project.

The BCHL isn't as good as the USHL, but it isn't a beer league either. A notch below the USHL, IMHO.

Beacon 01-17-2013 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
BCHL is a beer league? Ok buddy. Is the USHL a beer league? It may not mean as much as an OHL or NCAA season but "beer league" is ridiculous hyperbole.

It's not a beer league, but it's a very low end league. Let's put it this way. Your average BCHL team wouldn't stand a chance against an ECHL team. In fact, it would lose 9 times out of 10 against CHL teams.

Most BCHLers, if they will have any kind of a career, will go on to play in either the Federal League (Brooklyn Aviators) or the Southern Professional League. This is the level of hockey they are playing. The average BCHL team playing against the Brooklyn Aviators would be an even money bet in Vegas, so let's not pretend that scoring 80 points in 60 games there is a huge accomplishment.


Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
Look if point rankings and line rankings are your sole basis for evaluating prospects there is nothing to discuss.

This is a strawman argument. Every time a point is brought up against a prospect, I hear, "if this is the only thing to evaluate, then there is nothing to discuss." Nobody is saying it's the only thing, but it's one of the things we can look at. He was a second liner in the BCHL. He's a 4th liner in the CCHA. The fact that he can't beat out players with no AHL future is troublesome.

It's funny how nobody thinks that it's unimportant that Lindberg and Fast are first liners, but when a kid stumbles, suddenly where he plays is irrelevant.


Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
Let's hear your algorithm for predicting players so that we can just get a definitive list and call it a day.

Strawman argument again. What you are saying is that if something isn't 100% predictive, it means that it has ZERO value. This is obviously false.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
How about how Jeff Jackson runs the most defensive system in the NCAA?

Hrivik also played in the most defensive system in the QMJHL, but while that lowered his overall stats, he was still a first liner on the team, and scored more than lesser players on his team. Foggy is playing on the 4th line as a 19 year old.

As for the team being defensive-minded, it didn't stop Robbie Russo, same age as Foggy, from scoring over a point a game as a defenseman. Six players have more than 0.7 points per game on that team. Not terrible.


Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
There is no chance Nieves would have been a top-6 center on a defensive team over Anders Lee and TJ Tynan.

If a player can play, coaches will find a spot for him. He can be a third liner who plays on the PP and moves up to the top-6 when someone is injured or struggling or the coach just wants to juggle the lines. Either way, he plays.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
Nieves walked into a great developmental situation on a terrible team. It's comparing apples to oranges.

Players make their own situation good or bad. You can argue that walking into a terrible team isn't "great" at all. Your linemates aren't great, you are constantly bummed out from losing, there's never-ending finger-pointing as to who's responsible for the losing.

Let me tell you this: U of Michigan is much, much better than the Penticton Vees. If Foggy couldn't be an above average player on the Vees, what would possess you to believe he could match Nieves's performance as a first liner in Michigan?

Foggy had his chance to walk onto a team with low-level competition, and he was only a middling player on that team.


Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
I would never say that Fogarty is likely to reach his top-end potential, which is a 50pt defensive forward, but it's there.

This is an argument based on what exactly? What is the basis for saying it? What I wrote, good or bad, was at least a reason for why I think what I think. What is your reason for saying this? You read a scouting report that said he was a good skater for his size? Who cares! These reports are comparing him to other mid-round picks, most of whom will wind up career ECHLers. There's absolutely nothing to suggest he has 50-point potential.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57761755)
He was one of the most skilled players I have seen come through MN HS hockey in recent years, though extremely unrefined. The reason to see his potential is called using your eyes instead of pure statistics. He's a 3-4 year college player.

Ok, and how many times have you used your eyes in personally evaluating Foggy? Let me ask you this: has his coach in both ND and in Penticton seen him more than you did? And they've concluded that he belongs on the lines below those of future AHLers. What does that tell you?

HatTrick Swayze 01-17-2013 08:40 PM

I'm not going to continue this debate, because at the end of the day the only thing that is going to determine Fogarty's future is Fogarty.

The one consistent logical flaw in your argument is that you assume coaches decisions at minor levels is at all predictive of NHL future. A coach's job is to maximize the talent on his roster to win games now. Different levels require different skillsets to be successful. Being unable to "beat out players with no AHL futures" means very little, until viewed in a broader context.

We will know in a few years. And no, I don't base evaluations off "reading scouting reports".

Kendo 01-17-2013 09:07 PM

Noreau. Add Yogan.

Beacon 01-17-2013 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 57763661)
The one consistent logical flaw in your argument is that you assume coaches decisions at minor levels is at all predictive of NHL future.


Again, you are making an error where you judge something as a 0 or 100% game. You just said that a coach's decision is not at all predictive of the player's future in the NHL. That is patently false on its face. So you are telling me that if a player can't make the team, the reason is always something unrelated to the player's talent?

The reality is that 9 times out of 10, where a player plays is determined by his talent + experience + physical development. There are exceptions, of course, but to suggest that these exceptions are the rule is just false.

Just as it is great to see Lindberg on the SEL first line, it is less than exciting to see Foggy on the fourth line of a lesser league.

Bird Law 01-17-2013 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beacon (Post 57762915)
It's not a beer league, but it's a very low end league. Let's put it this way. Your average BCHL team wouldn't stand a chance against an ECHL team. In fact, it would lose 9 times out of 10 against CHL teams.

Dude. The BCHL is a junior league. What does the ECHL have to do with it?


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