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2012-13 Penalty Liabilities and Assets
This idea has been tossed around in the past, and Boom Boom Anton is due credit for resurrecting it.
The purpose of this thread is to track which Hurricanes have been the biggest liabilities to the team in terms of taking penalties; and which players have been most valuable in drawing penalties that lead to goals.
Key Minor PKs - 2-minute penalties that create a PP for the opponent for any amount of time Double-Minor PKs - 4-minute penalties that create a PP for the opponent for any amount of time Maj. PKs - 5-minute penalties that create a PP for the opponent for any amount of time PPs Ended - Penalties taken during a Hurricanes PP 3-v-5s Created - Penalties of any length which created a 3-v-5 PK for any amount of time Goals Against - Goals scored by the opponent on PPs that result from the player's specific penalty. 3-v-5 goals result in points awarded to both penalized players.
Penalties Drawn - As listed by the NHL's official scoresheet. PKs Ended - Penalties drawn during a penalty kill. A PKE point will still be awarded even if the drawn penalty only reduces the PK to a 3-v-4. PP Goals Created - PP goals resulting from the specific penalty that the player drew. 5-v-3 goals will result in points being awarded to both players who drew penalties; in theory the same player could get both points. |
This could turn out to be a really interesting research.
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Game 1 @ Florida Panthers
1/19/2013 5-1 Loss 1st Period 05:36 - Corvo - Min. PK (cross checking) +1 Goal Against 08:35 - J. Staal - Penalty Drawn 14:15 - Ward - Penalty Drawn 14:54 - Corvo - Min. PK (holding) +1 Goal Against 16:07 - Skinner - Min. PK (hooking) +1 Goal Against 2nd Period 11:20 - Skinner - Penalty Drawn 17:46 - Semin - Min. PK (cross checking) 17:46 - Semin - Min. PK (unsportsmanlike conduct) 18:05 - Gleason - Penalty Drawn - PK Ended 19:56 - LaRose - Min. PK (tripping) - 3-v-5 created 3rd Period 03:47 - Gleason - Penalty Drawn 14:01 - Boychuk - Penalty Drawn 16:37 - Harrison - Penalty Drawn |
Corvo's 2nd penalty also ended a PP.
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I know this may not work but how about charting good penalties? Like ones that prevent a breakaway goal?
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Further, you may want to divide them into penalties due to shoddy officiating rather than poor play.
For example, Gleason's double major for a "high stick" on Mathieu Perreault, when in reality Perreault hit himself in the face with the butt of his stick. If that is too much hassle, put an error column like the adjusted plus minus. |
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But I see worth in keeping an asterisk to denote how often a player is called for a weak (or no) penalty. It would essentially keep tabs on how that player is viewed by the refs. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if Semin get the bad end of the stick much more often than Joe Corvo. |
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What is the significance of whether or not a goal was scored on the ensuing powerplay?
That is the kind of thinking that should be left to Jeremy Roenick and not people interested in meaningful statistics. |
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I think it's pretty clear that if a goal is scored on a powerplay, the penalty that led to the powerplay had some effect on the game.
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^ Y'all please fact-check me on this stuff! The tables are a pain sometimes and it's easy to lose track of the points. - re: bad penalties, the main thing stopping me from charting them is a lack of video to review. I don't have access to complete game replays, so personally my best contribution is to track the "on paper" aspects of penalties. If someone would like to keep a tally on good/bad calls, good/bad penalties to take, that would be awesome. I'd be happy to merge it with the table in the OP. - Re: the significance of goals scored after a penalty, to some extent it's a fluff stat. My personal theory is that it's going to hit a guy like Corvo the hardest (a defenseman who tends to take penalties), followed by the important defensive players, then the guys who are just irrelevant to defense altogether will bring up the rear (Skinner, Semin). We'll see if that theory bears out. But anyway, no it is not a rigorous stat but it is one that I frequently see on "I wish they kept track of..." lists. As long as we're keeping track of situational penalty-taking (which IMO is a rigorously relevant set of stats), the goal-after number is an easy add-on. Again, I'm just one guy here so everyone please feel welcome to continue to contribute by means of fact-checking, criticism, observations, etc. |
The drawing or taking of a penalty is, for the most part, unrelated to the success of the powerplay/penalty kill that follows.
I like the rest of the stuff. The idea of adding asterisks when the penalty prevented a scoring chance is relevant. There is more stuff that could be done in a meaningful way that could make it even more interesting, atlhough it'd be more work. That last stat just doesn't fit in with what it appears is trying to be accomplished. ed: if you're looking for goals cost/gained, then just multiply it by the PP%/PK%. A penalty drawn by a team with a 17% PP is worth .17 goals. |
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What I expect to find, and the data will either bear it out or not, is that guys like Corvo are even more of a liability than they seem. If a defenseman is prone to penalties, even if he's not a major penalty killer, the result is an increasing amount of strain on the other D-pairings as they compensate for him being off the ice. So while not playing good defense himself, he's making his teammates worse at the same time. That might be worthwhile if he were offsetting that issue with great offensive play, but as we see from the +/- thread it takes a truly exceptional defenseman to produce that much offense. I think what we'll find is a statistical confirmation of the eye test -- a player like Corvo is literally the worst model of defenseman available. It would be better to have a guy who does absolutely nothing than one who generates material negative impact on the outcome of the game. |
The problem is you're trying to measure (in terms of the goals scored on the PP/PKs) something that maybe has a real impact of 5%? or so. In 48 games, maybe someone will take 50 penalties?
The equivalent would be rolling a die 50 times to determine if it is fair. |
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As I find time, I'm going to see if I can reconstruct last year's numbers as well. It's an easy task, just time consuming so I'm going to try and take it in 10-game blocks.
Here are the numbers I have for the first 10 games of last season.
Just going through that 10-game sample revealed some possible flaws in the system, particularly when it comes to multiple penalties. A good example is the Horton/Gleason game in Boston last year, where the Bruins ended up having a double-minor and two minors on the board simultaneously, and the Canes scored twice on those PPs. Situations like that are going to create some weird effects, such as Staal drawing a minor that resulted in 2 goals. Hopefully we'll find that those games are few and far between, so they'll have a marginal effect overall. |
Last season's numbers after 20 games.
Staal and Skinner - 29 PPs drawn, resulting in 7 goals Rest of team - 50 PPs drawn, resulting in 5 goals |
Game 2 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
1/22/2013 4-1 Loss 1st Period 13:02 - Harrison - Penalty Drawn 17:09 - Jordan Staal - Min. PK (tripping) 2nd Period 1:29 - Skinner - Penalty Drawn 3:15 - Eric Staal - Penalty Drawn +1 Goal For 9:14 - Bowman - Min. PK (hooking) 11:10 - Eric Staal - Penalty Drawn 16:28 - Jokinen - Min. PK (interference) 3rd Period 4:13 - LaRose - Min. PK (interference) 9:36 - Jokinen - Min. PK (hooking) +1 Goal Against 19:40 - Eric Staal - Min. PK (slashing) |
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