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-   -   2013 NHL Draft Top 100: The Next Ones Midterm Rankings (THW) (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1331643)

chrisralph007 01-24-2013 09:36 AM

2013 NHL Draft Top 100: The Next Ones Midterm Rankings (THW)
 
2013 NHL Draft Top 100: The Next Ones Midterm Rankings are finally live.

A big change for the pole position at the top of the draft rankings...and not the change you might think

Excerpt:

Quote:

"The Great Nate Debate Jones and Drouin Heat Up The Race for #1

At the start of the season, I would have bet that the phenom prospect Nathan (Nate) MacKinnon would have went coast-to-coast, from start to finish in sole position as the number one rated prospect for the 2013 edition of the NHL Entry Draft, to be held in Newark, New Jersey.

In my eyes, this has been the case in the last five years from Steven Stamkos (2008) to John Tavares (2009) to Taylor Hall (2010) to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011) all the way to Nail Yakupov (2012). Yes the Edmonton Oilers swept up the last three consensus number one overall prospects over the last three drafts.

The ultra-explosive young centreman Nate is definitely still in this three thoroughbred race, but he has some healthy competition."
Some major movement in the rankings. Comments, questions and thoughts welcomed. If you disagree, back it up.

You might want to sit down for this...

Link to full article and the Top 100:
http://thehockeywriters.com/2013-nhl...term-rankings/

AmericanDream 01-24-2013 09:44 AM

your list (especially the top 30) is way too CHL heavy. I usually like your lists, but this top 30 is not realistic with some of the players you have listed in your top 30-40. The rankings of your USNDP/USHL players is just flat out bad.

almost every single player that was ranked by central scouting out of the USHL/USNDP/US Highschool you have ranked lower than where they have them ranked. You added Taylor Cammarata to the list, which is great, but you downgraded pretty much 95% of the players from the USHL/USNDP/US highschool below where central scouting has them ranked...how could almost ALL of the USHL/US Highschool kids be dropping in your rankings?

And when you look at all the other US kids you have almost all of them from the CHL ranked lower then where Central Scouting has them. Even Seth Jones you have lower than CS. I believe you are one spot higher on Adam Erne, but outside of that you are much lower on Ryan Hartman and Jimmy Lodge, lower on Justin Bailey, Cole Cassels, etc.. and I felt that the CS list was borderline nuts with some of their rankings. Cant take this list seriously.

ISS January rankings has 6 US players (with Fasching, Bailey, and McCoshen just outside) in the top 30...you have 3.

Joe Hallenback 01-24-2013 10:03 AM

How in the world after the World Juniors and the recent top prospects game you can still have Jones at 3 is beyond me

oilersfan11 01-24-2013 10:08 AM

Seth Jones is going number 1.

AmericanDream 01-24-2013 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback (Post 58223433)
How in the world after the World Juniors and the recent top prospects game you can still have Jones at 3 is beyond me

could have made an entire paragraph about that as well...just figured it wasnt worth touching as it was blatantly obvious how flawed a list this is,

Breakfast of Champs 01-24-2013 11:07 AM

Its becoming more clear to me every day that Drouin is overrated to those who have only seen him live a few times/WJC.

He is a great talent for sure, but not #1 at this time, maybe not even top 3.

chrisralph007 01-24-2013 11:12 AM

Hey guys:

Appreciate the initial feedback. Can't say I didn't expect the love for Seth Jones to emerge promptly. If you read the full article, I am extremely high on the kid - which attests to how good of a draft I think this is.

This is not a prediction/mock draft of where I think they will go in June in Newark. This is my longterm prognostication in ranking the player in terms of where their respective games will be in 5 even 10 years and beyond down the road.

American Dream: If you look a little closer I think you exaggerating my seemingly bias against American hockey players. Before I start in, I'll preface it by saying I think at least the Top 43 (maybe even top 48 players or more) are 1st rnd calibre prospects.

I am extremely high on many of the players you mentioned. When you compare my ranking to that of NHL CS, keep in mind the segregated nature of their rankings (North American/Euro/Skater & goalies).
Thus, when you look closer, Erne is actually much higher than 1 slot above his CS placement given I have 3 euro skaters in the top 10.
Players like Compher are spot on with where NHL CS has them (I should say here I don't agree with a lot of the NHL CS rankings, but do have the utmost respect for what they do).
Players like Bailey, Santini, Keaton Thompson, Fitzgerald, Cassels are actually ranked above where NHL CS have thm placed.

I do take your point on McCoshen, Hartman - really like those 2 myself. Hartman, of course, has been in the spotlight recently given his admirable performances at WJCs and top prospect game and didn't go with notice in my eye. I do try and look at the whole landscape and project the player over the longterm. Given that their both early 2nd rnders in my rankings again shows how much I do like them as I'm really liking this draft class.

I actually wanted to do a longer write-up for this edition of the rankings, but the discussion on the top 3, or 1a, 1b and 1c if you will took up so much "real estate" in the article.

Thanks again.

CBJFan19* 01-24-2013 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilersfan11 (Post 58223733)
Seth Jones is going number 1.

not if Columbus has it, they need top shelf scoring prospects pretty bad, they already have about 6 really high potential defensive prospects

Oan 01-24-2013 11:31 AM

Have you been watching Barkov at all post-WJC? He has been magnificent, 7 game point streak going on. I would still have him firmly at 3rd, despite his rather weak WJC performance.

zjh 01-24-2013 11:55 AM

What I can tell you about this draft is that WHL defenseman such as Marc McNulty, Mason Geertsen, Mitch Wheaton, and Kayle Doetzel will provide teams with some wicked picks in the 50-100 area.

chrisralph007 01-24-2013 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oan (Post 58228385)
Have you been watching Barkov at all post-WJC? He has been magnificent, 7 game point streak going on. I would still have him firmly at 3rd, despite his rather weak WJC performance.

Hey Oan - I've been impressed with Barkov even since seeing him live in Calgary for the 2012 WJCs. He showed such poise and so much potential as Sep/95 born player. I chatted with him as well - nice young kid. Kind of wish he would have had an interpreter for the interview.

We actually had a laugh between us. We were just talking about how he was the youngest player to ever score a goal for Finland at the World Juniors (and not youngest player ever how many reporters were mistaken) when a well known prospects/hockey reporter/journalist (I won't say who out of respect) piggy-backed on my one-on-one and said "So Alex, how does it feel to be the youngest ever player to score at the World Juniors." Alex coolly and assertively responded: "I am not the youngest. That was Kazakhstan's Viktor Alexandrov." I couldn't help but have about a km wide smile.

arsmaster 01-24-2013 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zjh (Post 58229805)
What I can tell you about this draft is that WHL defenseman such as Marc McNulty, Mason Geertsen, Mitch Wheaton, and Kayle Doetzel will provide teams with some wicked picks in the 50-100 area.

Care to elaborate?

These all seem like long term, limited upside players.

Big kids, but I'm wondering if they'll ever me more than 5/6's who play the PK.

Geertsen is the kid I favour (Brooks Orpik like upside for me), McNulty has only stuck out for me because he's huge in my viewings, not because he's good.

How would you rank them Zenon, who do you see them comparing too at the NHL level?

I'd probably go Geertsen, Wheaton, Doetzel, McNulty.

AmericanDream 01-24-2013 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrisralph007 (Post 58227337)
Hey guys:

Appreciate the initial feedback. Can't say I didn't expect the love for Seth Jones to emerge promptly. If you read the full article, I am extremely high on the kid - which attests to how good of a draft I think this is.

This is not a prediction/mock draft of where I think they will go in June in Newark. This is my longterm prognostication in ranking the player in terms of where their respective games will be in 5 even 10 years and beyond down the road.

American Dream: If you look a little closer I think you exaggerating my seemingly bias against American hockey players. Before I start in, I'll preface it by saying I think at least the Top 43 (maybe even top 48 players or more) are 1st rnd calibre prospects.

I am extremely high on many of the players you mentioned. When you compare my ranking to that of NHL CS, keep in mind the segregated nature of their rankings (North American/Euro/Skater & goalies).
Thus, when you look closer, Erne is actually much higher than 1 slot above his CS placement given I have 3 euro skaters in the top 10.
Players like Compher are spot on with where NHL CS has them (I should say here I don't agree with a lot of the NHL CS rankings, but do have the utmost respect for what they do).
Players like Bailey, Santini, Keaton Thompson, Fitzgerald, Cassels are actually ranked above where NHL CS have thm placed.

I do take your point on McCoshen, Hartman - really like those 2 myself. Hartman, of course, has been in the spotlight recently given his admirable performances at WJCs and top prospect game and didn't go with notice in my eye. I do try and look at the whole landscape and project the player over the longterm. Given that their both early 2nd rnders in my rankings again shows how much I do like them as I'm really liking this draft class.

I actually wanted to do a longer write-up for this edition of the rankings, but the discussion on the top 3, or 1a, 1b and 1c if you will took up so much "real estate" in the article.

Thanks again.

you are incorrect on your statement of your rankings and CS. Not sure if it is bias or ignorance, but it is completely wrong with your rankings of most of the US kids.

I listed below each US player, with your ranking and the ranking from CS...now you go ahead and claim what you think after reading your rankings. What I have below is a list of those US kids with the rankings you put from CS and THW on your site..this is directly from you..


Seth Jones - CS - 1 - THW -3 ...
Adam Erne - CS - 13 - THW -12 ...first US player ranked higher by you
J.T Compher - CS - 20 - THW -26 ....drop
Ian McCoshen- CS- 21 - THW -36 ....terrible
Ryan Hartman - CS- 25 - THW -38 ....not even close
Justin Bailey - CS -37 - THW - 40 ....drop
Connor Hurley - CS - 32 - THW - 42 ...really??
Steve Santini - CS - 47 - THW -46 .... second US player ranked higher by you
Keaton Thompson - CS - 51 - THW-48 ....third US player ranked higher by you
Ryan Fitzgerald - CS- 46 - THW- 54 ...another big drop
Cole Cassels - CS -60 - THW -65 ...drop
Michael Downing - CS - 49 - THW -69 ..huge drop
Hudson Fasching - CS - 42 - THW - 71 ...huge drop
John Hayden - CS - 59 - THW -72 ...huge drop
Brett Pesce - CS - 36 - THW -77 ....come on...
Michael McCarron - CS-31 - THW -80 ...WHAT???
Jimmy Lodge - CS- 28 - THW - 88 ...Holy crap!! insane..
Ty Hill - CS - 85 - THW - 92 ...Not a huge drop, must have made a mistake...

also add Blake Heinrich -72, Connor Clifton -73, Thomas Vannelli- 77, Luke Johnson -78, Anthony Florentino -79, Zach Sanford -83, Avery Peterson -86, Jason Salvaggio -90, Sean Malone-98, etc as all kids ranked inside the CS top 100 that you completely dropped out of your top 100. Now I can see a number of these kids not getting ranked in the top 100, but every one of them dropped and is not good enough for your top 100???

so that makes 3 out of 18 US players you have ranked in the top 100 that you have ranked higher than where CS has them at... and 2 of those players are ranked ahead by 1 flippin spot, while the majority of these kids see double digit drops according to you...and your going to say there is no agenda here, or that this is coincidence??

you claim to be extremely high on some of these US kids, but the names you are "high" on have massive drops from where CS has them....if you were high on them like you claim (Hartman, McCoshen, etc) they would be ranked first round. Its not even an issue as to Ryan Hartman being a first round pick, the question is if he cracks the top 20...and you have him at 38!

and to the point you missed is that the list that CS has out there is simply pretty bad with the US kids as it stands, some of the kids like Thompson and Santini are ranked nowhere near as low as they have them by other scouts...hell both are top 25 picks with ISS...yet CS has them in the 40's which will likely be changed with their final list..they also ridiculously had Tyler Motte and Will Butcher pathetically low, and you followed suit as well.. it just makes no sense how you have almost every American kid falling in rankings from top to bottom..

if you were a regular poster I wouldnt care less as we all have a bias towards the players we see most..but you are trying to come off more professional than the avergae Joe on here with a website and updates and I am sorry but when I see something this blatant I am going to call you out on it. Central Scouting has 27 American players ranked inside their top 100 (looked fast might have missed 1 or 2), and thats roughly how the past dozen years has gone for the US where we get between 25-30% of the top 100...but your list has 18 US kids out of the top 100, which would pretty much equate to one of the worst drafts in recent memory for the US...something that simply will not happen even after 2 semi down drafts for the US 2011, 2012.

AUAIOMRN 01-24-2013 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AmericanDream (Post 58235463)
you are incorrect on your statement of your rankings and CS. Not sure if it is bias or ignorance, but it is completely wrong with your rankings of most of the US kids.

I listed below each US player, with your ranking and the ranking from CS...now you go ahead and claim what you think after reading your rankings. What I have below is a list of those US kids with the rankings you put from CS and THW on your site..this is directly from you..


Seth Jones - CS - 1 - THW -3 ...
Adam Erne - CS - 13 - THW -12 ...first US player ranked higher by you
J.T Compher - CS - 20 - THW -26 ....drop
Ian McCoshen- CS- 21 - THW -36 ....terrible
Ryan Hartman - CS- 25 - THW -38 ....not even close
Justin Bailey - CS -37 - THW - 40 ....drop
Connor Hurley - CS - 32 - THW - 42 ...really??
Steve Santini - CS - 47 - THW -46 .... second US player ranked higher by you
Keaton Thompson - CS - 51 - THW-48 ....third US player ranked higher by you
Ryan Fitzgerald - CS- 46 - THW- 54 ...another big drop
Cole Cassels - CS -60 - THW -65 ...drop
Michael Downing - CS - 49 - THW -69 ..huge drop
Hudson Fasching - CS - 42 - THW - 71 ...huge drop
John Hayden - CS - 59 - THW -72 ...huge drop
Brett Pesce - CS - 36 - THW -77 ....come on...
Michael McCarron - CS-31 - THW -80 ...WHAT???
Jimmy Lodge - CS- 28 - THW - 88 ...Holy crap!! insane..
Ty Hill - CS - 85 - THW - 92 ...Not a huge drop, must have made a mistake...

also add Blake Heinrich -72, Connor Clifton -73, Thomas Vannelli- 77, Luke Johnson -78, Anthony Florentino -79, Zach Sanford -83, Avery Peterson -86, Jason Salvaggio -90, Sean Malone-98, etc as all kids ranked inside the CS top 100 that you completely dropped out of your top 100. Now I can see a number of these kids not getting ranked in the top 100, but every one of them dropped and is not good enough for your top 100???

so that makes 3 out of 18 US players you have ranked in the top 100 that you have ranked higher than where CS has them at... and 2 of those players are ranked ahead by 1 flippin spot, while the majority of these kids see double digit drops according to you...and your going to say there is no agenda here, or that this is coincidence??

you claim to be extremely high on some of these US kids, but the names you are "high" on have massive drops from where CS has them....if you were high on them like you claim (Hartman, McCoshen, etc) they would be ranked first round. Its not even an issue as to Ryan Hartman being a first round pick, the question is if he cracks the top 20...and you have him at 38!

and to the point you missed is that the list that CS has out there is simply pretty bad with the US kids as it stands, some of the kids like Thompson and Santini are ranked nowhere near as low as they have them by other scouts...hell both are top 25 picks with ISS...yet CS has them in the 40's which will likely be changed with their final list..they also ridiculously had Tyler Motte and Will Butcher pathetically low, and you followed suit as well.. it just makes no sense how you have almost every American kid falling in rankings from top to bottom..

if you were a regular poster I wouldnt care less as we all have a bias towards the players we see most..but you are trying to come off more professional than the avergae Joe on here with a website and updates and I am sorry but when I see something this blatant I am going to call you out on it. Central Scouting has 27 American players ranked inside their top 100 (looked fast might have missed 1 or 2), and thats roughly how the past dozen years has gone for the US where we get between 25-30% of the top 100...but your list has 18 US kids out of the top 100, which would pretty much equate to one of the worst drafts in recent memory for the US...something that simply will not happen.

The CS ranking is separated by NA, Europe, and doesn't include goaltenders.

AmericanDream 01-24-2013 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AUAIOMRN (Post 58236163)
The CS ranking is separated by NA, Europe, and doesn't include goaltenders.

which I understand....the drops are too far off from reality is my point. there simply isnt enough European players that will get drafted in the top 100 to knock down almost every US kid ranked.. it simply will not happen.. and the moral is the CS rankings were pretty bad this time out..many players are ranked much higher on other services yet see big drops on here. still not buying it.

chrisralph007 01-24-2013 02:09 PM

Appreciate your passion on the subject, American Dream, but your comparison to NHL CS are simply not valid given the segregated rankings they use, separating NAs and Euros as well as goalies and skaters.

I have 9 Euros in the 1st round alone.

There are at least 10 more Euros in the Top 100 (from memory and not an exact count) plus 3 goalies.

This results in obvious displacement from NHL CS's "ranking" when you combine them. For instance, towards the bottom of my Top 100, players like you mentioned could be displaced by about 22 if you want to compare apples to apples. Obviously this number gets lower the higher up the "board" you go.

For perhaps a better comparator, E-Mac combined NHL CS's rankings in this post:
http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-2013...term-rankings/

***
A lot of the last names you mention then were ineed on my radar, but didn't crack the Top 100...at least not yet.

Circulartheory 01-24-2013 02:36 PM

So what I did was filter out the THW rankings into North American skaters only, and his list isn't as different as you exaggerate it to be Americandream

NameTHWCSSDiff
Seth Jones31-2
Adam Erne913+4
J.T Compher1920+1
Ian McCoshen2721-6
Ryan Hartman2925-4
Justin Bailey3037+7
Connor Hurley32320
Steven Santini3447+13
Keaton Thompson3551+16
Ryan Fitzgerald4046+6
Cole Cassels4960+11
Michael Downing5349-4
Hudson Fasching5542-13
John Hayden5659+3
Brett Pesce5836-22
Michael McCarron6031-29
Jimmy Lodge6828-40
Tyler Hill7185+14

For me, it looks fairly even. The only times it great differs is when we are discussing 2nd round prospects, which in the THW rankings, fall into the 3rd. Not exactly a huge drop off.

dwanmaster* 01-24-2013 02:38 PM

Seth Jones at 3... Good Joke

Also Ristolainen at 15 behind Lazar, Domi, Mantha and Morrisey... I wonder what country you're from

Circulartheory 01-24-2013 02:39 PM

And to follow up and to talk about the big differences like Jimmy Lodge:

Lodge was not ranked by Craig Button or FC, and was ranked 22nd best OHL prospect by OHLProspects. So THW's view on him isn't exactly a "wow" moment.

EDIT: I don't agree with alot of it, but there is nothing wrong when lists differ as everyone is entitled to their own opinions, and THW features tons of writers that have a great amount of experience watching hockey.

candyman82 01-24-2013 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBJFan19 (Post 58227729)
not if Columbus has it, they need top shelf scoring prospects pretty bad, they already have about 6 really high potential defensive prospects

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Columbus takes him anyway. JD seems like a draft BPA guy to me.

toewsintangibles 01-24-2013 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwanmaster (Post 58238795)
Seth Jones at 3... Good Joke

Also Ristolainen at 15 behind Lazar, Domi, Mantha and Morrisey... I wonder what country you're from

I guess its not Finland.

I'd venture to guess the guy making this list has seen only WJC games of Artturi Lehkonen and Dano to vault Dano over our guy

chrisralph007 01-24-2013 03:24 PM

@danchan - thanks for the effort on putting together that table!

Spitzman 01-24-2013 03:25 PM

Tyler hill is Canadian. He comes from the Brantford Ontario area.

CBJFan19* 01-24-2013 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by candyman82 (Post 58239239)
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Columbus takes him anyway. JD seems like a draft BPA guy to me.

thats because the last few years we've needed BPA, now we need an elite C and scoring wings

arsmaster 01-24-2013 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AmericanDream (Post 58236519)
which I understand....the drops are too far off from reality is my point. there simply isnt enough European players that will get drafted in the top 100 to knock down almost every US kid ranked.. it simply will not happen.. and the moral is the CS rankings were pretty bad this time out..many players are ranked much higher on other services yet see big drops on here. still not buying it.

CSS rankings could hardly be considered reality, you and I both know this.


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