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-   -   The Race to the Bottom - Rebuild Thread. (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1332399)

The Mentalist 01-25-2013 05:45 AM

The Race to the Bottom - Rebuild Thread.
 
Not a tank thread, but a realistic look at teams likely to finish in the bottom 5 based on rosters this year and how they finished last year.

Week 1:
1. Columbus 3pts 4GP
2. Edmonton 4 pts 3GP
3. Toronto 4 pts 4GP
4 Montreal 4pts 3GP
5. NY Isles 4 pts 3GP
6. TB 4 pts 3GP

Washington 0pts 3GP
Calgary 1 pts 3GP
LA 1pts 3GP
NY 2pts 4GP

Interesting first week, short season, standings could be topsy turvy after next week. Anyone's ball game. Don't expect LA or the Rangers to keep losing.

HellasLEAF 01-25-2013 05:49 AM

hoping for a bottom 5 finish and for our young players to continue to get tons of playing time.

we might be too good for 5th but even in the top 10 there are many great players and you never know how it will go draft day.

legendinblue 01-25-2013 05:58 AM

Should we bomb at least it won't be so painful since it's a shortened season. Plus the draft class looks pretty promising.

The Mentalist 01-25-2013 06:08 AM

I think we are better the Columbus, Montreal and the NY Isles. Edmonton looks like they are much better this year, though inexperienced. Maybe a 5-7 pick, if we don't make a push for the playoffs, I would like to finish with atleast the 3rd pick and guarantee one of Drouin, Mackinnon or Jones.

Larcos_Unal 01-25-2013 06:25 AM

Losing Lupul is a huge blow to this team's already iffy playoff chances, anyone who says otherwise is nuts. Our defensive play is better than last year but the goaltending just isn't there.

I pray to the hockey gods that this is the year we lose and we lose big. This draft is loaded with quality centers.

The Mentalist 01-25-2013 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larcos_Unal (Post 58300427)
Losing Lupul is a huge blow to this team's already iffy playoff chances, anyone who says otherwise is nuts. Our defensive play is better than last year but the goaltending just isn't there.

I pray to the hockey gods that this is the year we lose and we lose big. This draft is loaded with quality centers.

Yep, big losing Lupul. I see us closer to drafting Nichuskin or Monahan rather than being in the Jones or Mackinnon sweepstakes.

If we get either of the former, add them to our roster next year with Rielly, I wouldn't complain one bit, if Nonis can land a #1 G.

threeGo 01-25-2013 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interactif (Post 58300491)
Yep, big losing Lupul. I see us closer to drafting Nichuskin or Monahan rather than being in the Jones or Mackinnon sweepstakes.

If we get either of the former, add them to our roster next year with Rielly, I wouldn't complain one bit, if Nonis can land a #1 G.

I think we'll be seeing injuries shortly. That should help us in the tank.

allyb 01-25-2013 06:53 AM

I think I must be crazy but I want to see the playoffs :nod:

So many negative fans and dont give me realistic its kind of boring now

BigWilly 01-25-2013 06:57 AM

I'm just going to enjoy the year, wherever we land; we land. If that's a top 5 pick, great. If not, so be it. I just want the kids to be played, a few things I would love to see this season in order:

1) Kadri emerge as an offensive impact player
2) JVR have a career year (Pace-wise)
2) Gardiner have a better year than last (Pace-wise)
4) Playoffs

a a ron 01-25-2013 08:08 AM

why do people want to tank so bad. I just want to see playoffs already I'm done waiting.. this year I'd rather have hope right to the end rather than not caring for the final month and a half.. So ya i'd rather have 9th finish than a 15th place.

mashedpotato 01-25-2013 08:18 AM

Because that's incredibly short sighted to wish for the playoffs when realistically speaking, the team should be building for a long-term sustained playoff apperance?

Pi 01-25-2013 08:22 AM

Losing Lupul is pretty significant. He's gone for nearly half the season so the PP, Kessel and Bozak will suffer.

I think the Leafs make a push for the playoffs but eventually slide into a top 10 pick.

I think we're better than a lot of teams that picked near us last year.

Still not sold on Edmonton, Montreal, NYI. Calgary probably picks up a top 5 pick this year unless they screw it up.

Just enjoy the games with zero expectations, watch a young guy like Kadri break out. I have no doubt that by the end of this season he's the #1C, playing top PP time.

Penalty Kill Icing* 01-25-2013 08:22 AM

We are currently 9th in the east :naughty:

Christ 01-25-2013 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amckay6 (Post 58302475)
why do people want to tank so bad. I just want to see playoffs already I'm done waiting.. this year I'd rather have hope right to the end rather than not caring for the final month and a half.. So ya i'd rather have 9th finish than a 15th place.

Every year it is the same thing with the tanking. I would vastly prefer seeing some playoff action as it would be an indication that our team is actually getting better. We are the second youngest team in the league, lots of good young players who have yet to show us their full potential. I would like to see these players drive us into the playoffs and get some experience in the post season to boot!

The Mentalist 01-25-2013 08:32 AM

Really wanted this to be more of a thread where teams realistically finish rather than a tank thread, but using Darwin's theory of natural selection, I see us falling somewhere between 3-7, our team is not bad, we have good pieces in place, but I see it as part youth, part transition, part positioning type of year.

I see the 3rd week as an important week where we are likely to finish, when it all shakes out we will likely see a snapshot here.

Patty Lee 01-25-2013 08:59 AM

The Leafs have played 2 crap teams, 1 good team and one okay team with a good goalie, and already people are able to determine their finish 44 games from now.

they don't know if they have goaltending or not. their #1 looked rusty but good in his one game.

their best player is playing well but hasn't scored; that's not going to last.

their second best D played 1 game and stumbled through another.

shortened season or not, 4 games is not an indication of how the teams will finish up in April

this is a couple of weeks premature

BlueForever 01-25-2013 09:04 AM

Let the kids play, let the kids gain experience. Lupul's injury is a blessing to be honest. Gives us more of an opportunity to see what Frattin can do in the short term. Frattin, Kadri, JVR, Bozak, Gunnerson, Gardiner, Komorav, and our goalies are the future of this team. We should be able to consider this year a success if the following happens. And its in the order of importance:

1. Kadri, Komarov, Frattin, JVR, Gunnerson, Gardiner become an integral part to next year with successful seasons

2. Bozak, McCarther, Komisarek, Franson prove worth around league and gain value for possible trades

3. Distinguish Goalie Situation. Who is the starter if in house, if not who is your backup when a number one is acquired in off-season

4. Build team chemistry and team philosophy for next season

5. Distinguish holes to fill in free agency and trades this upcoming off season. Important off season to spend wisely as we have abundance of cap space.

6. Playoffs. If we can do all of the above and make playoffs thats great. If not then we use the above to move forward. Add through the draft to core.


Ideally it would be nice to see the playoffs this season. But realistically this is a nice to have not a must this season. Build, play youth and assess what you have. Thats what this season should be. Use the season as a pre-season to next year just extended of course. No irrational moves or moves out of panic only necessity.

Should be a fun season from what I have seen so far. Really impressed with play with exception of one game. We will see.

Pi 01-25-2013 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interactif (Post 58303237)
Really wanted this to be more of a thread where teams realistically finish rather than a tank thread, but using Darwin's theory of natural selection, I see us falling somewhere between 3-7, our team is not bad, we have good pieces in place, but I see it as part youth, part transition, part positioning type of year.

I see the 3rd week as an important week where we are likely to finish, when it all shakes out we will likely see a snapshot here.

I think we'll know by Game 15 where this team truly stands.

I don't think this team is bad but I still think it's a bit early for playoffs unless Reimer can play like he did in his first year.

We have good defense and a stable offense. Special teams could be better and goaltending is a question mark because you don't know what you're going to get from game to game.

I'd rather see this through than trade for Luongo. It's a good thing that Kadri is playing extremely well, he's totally off the board. There is no way the Leafs trade him unless he's being packaged for a better player.

DPyro 01-25-2013 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larcos_Unal (Post 58300427)
Losing Lupul is a huge blow to this team's already iffy playoff chances, anyone who says otherwise is nuts. Our defensive play is better than last year but the goaltending just isn't there.

I pray to the hockey gods that this is the year we lose and we lose big. This draft is loaded with quality centers.

The hockey gods already heard you when they injured Lupul.

GordieHoweHatTrick 01-25-2013 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Around in 67 (Post 58304137)
The Leafs have played 2 crap teams, 1 good team and one okay team with a good goalie, and already people are able to determine their finish 44 games from now.

they don't know if they have goaltending or not. their #1 looked rusty but good in his one game.

their best player is playing well but hasn't scored; that's not going to last.

their second best D played 1 game and stumbled through another.

shortened season or not, 4 games is not an indication of how the teams will finish up in April

this is a couple of weeks premature

I disagree because of the bolded. I think it's safe to say our goaltending sucks and will continue to do so. I expect a finish similiar to the one we had last year. Last year's team actually played well but the goaltending left a lot to be desired, sucking the energy out of the entire team after letting in one soft goal after another.

Pi 01-25-2013 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GordieHoweHatTrick (Post 58305609)
I disagree because of the bolded. I think it's safe to say our goaltending sucks and will continue to do so. I expect a finish similiar to the one we had last year. Last year's team actually played well but the goaltending left a lot to be desired, sucking the energy out of the entire team after letting in one soft goal after another.

Yeah, it's quite amazing to see what the Leafs accomplished last year despite getting subpar goaltending.

We essentially outscored our problems thanks to Lupul and Kessel.

This year, we've already lost Lupul for 6 weeks at least and Kessel has had some good chances but no goal yet and Kostka can't handle Kessel's passes at all.

Kessel should have at least 6 points right now if our PP was good enough to finish. Kostka is sucking the energy off that PP.

I expect a push for the playoffs and an eventual decline to a top pick.

egd27 01-25-2013 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueForever (Post 58304347)
Let the kids play, let the kids gain experience. Lupul's injury is a blessing to be honest. Gives us more of an opportunity to see what Frattin can do in the short term. Frattin, Kadri, JVR, Bozak, Gunnerson, Gardiner, Komorav, and our goalies are the future of this team. We should be able to consider this year a success if the following happens. And its in the order of importance:

1. Kadri, Komarov, Frattin, JVR, Gunnerson, Gardiner become an integral part to next year with successful seasons

2. Bozak, McCarther, Komisarek, Franson prove worth around league and gain value for possible trades

3. Distinguish Goalie Situation. Who is the starter if in house, if not who is your backup when a number one is acquired in off-season

4. Build team chemistry and team philosophy for next season

5. Distinguish holes to fill in free agency and trades this upcoming off season. Important off season to spend wisely as we have abundance of cap space.

6. Playoffs. If we can do all of the above and make playoffs thats great. If not then we use the above to move forward. Add through the draft to core.


Ideally it would be nice to see the playoffs this season. But realistically this is a nice to have not a must this season. Build, play youth and assess what you have. Thats what this season should be. Use the season as a pre-season to next year just extended of course. No irrational moves or moves out of panic only necessity.

Should be a fun season from what I have seen so far. Really impressed with play with exception of one game. We will see.

Good post. I think that sums it up nicely.

Peace Frog 01-25-2013 10:09 AM

I thought there was a draft lottery for the teams that don't make the playoffs this year. If so, there is no way to "tank" and be guaranteed a top 5 pick.

For this season (and this will be last), I would much rather get a top 5 pick vs. squeaking into the playoffs.

There looks to be some phenomenal talent in this draft class and I would love to see the Leafs take full advantage of it.

Faltorvo 01-25-2013 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amckay6 (Post 58302475)
why do people want to tank so bad. I just want to see playoffs already I'm done waiting.. this year I'd rather have hope right to the end rather than not caring for the final month and a half.. So ya i'd rather have 9th finish than a 15th place.

Sorry, i can't abide by that.

A good chunk of this non PO run was spent making bad trades and signing horrid contracts just to make the POs, when this obviously was not a cup contender, let alone good enough to make the POs.

That kind of horrid, selfish, short sightedness, has put us where we are now.

They have to pay for the mistakes of the past, there is just no way around this.

Am i tired of no POs? HELL YES!

But i assure you, i am far more tired of this team being pretenders and not real contenders.

Until we start to nail some top UFAs or we see draft picks turn into amazing picks for their respective slots, like a Giruox,Richards,Carter,Perry,Getzlaf,Parise,Weber, Suter and the likes, i will hold out hope on the highest % odds i can find, in getting those type of impact players and thats with very high draft SLOTS.

I'm not asking for or expecting any guaranties here, all I'm asking for is the highest % odds i can find, if that means more years of suckage, welllll so be it.

Faltorvo 01-25-2013 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueForever (Post 58304347)
Let the kids play, let the kids gain experience. Lupul's injury is a blessing to be honest. Gives us more of an opportunity to see what Frattin can do in the short term. Frattin, Kadri, JVR, Bozak, Gunnerson, Gardiner, Komorav, and our goalies are the future of this team. We should be able to consider this year a success if the following happens. And its in the order of importance:

1. Kadri, Komarov, Frattin, JVR, Gunnerson, Gardiner become an integral part to next year with successful seasons

2. Bozak, McCarther, Komisarek, Franson prove worth around league and gain value for possible trades

3. Distinguish Goalie Situation. Who is the starter if in house, if not who is your backup when a number one is acquired in off-season

4. Build team chemistry and team philosophy for next season

5. Distinguish holes to fill in free agency and trades this upcoming off season. Important off season to spend wisely as we have abundance of cap space.

6. Playoffs. If we can do all of the above and make playoffs thats great. If not then we use the above to move forward. Add through the draft to core.


Ideally it would be nice to see the playoffs this season. But realistically this is a nice to have not a must this season. Build, play youth and assess what you have. Thats what this season should be. Use the season as a pre-season to next year just extended of course. No irrational moves or moves out of panic only necessity.

Should be a fun season from what I have seen so far. Really impressed with play with exception of one game. We will see.

I'm not sure where you get this notion that we have an abundance of cap space next year.

That abundance is long ,long gone.

We have 16,340,000 m ish to sign 7/8 players.

RFAs

Kadri - 2.5/3m ish?
Kamorov- 1/1.5m ish?
Gunner-3m ish?
Franson-2m ish?
Fraser league min?

UFAs

Boz-3m ish?
MacArth- 3m ish?
Steck- 1m ish?
Orr- 1m ish?
Kotska- league min?

Just my little, modest list and those prices top 16m.

Regardless if i'm a little high in my prices, it still leaves us a long way from the word (abundance).

Don't resign Frason and cut Komi loose?, yup sure we can, but that leaves us with only 3 NHL D signed.

Let Orr, Steckle walk?, yup sure can, but once again, 1m ish to league min is not that much of a savings.

Our abundence died with the new CBA, we shoulda,coulda been sitting with 6/8m to UFA hunt with.


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