Ducks' (and other teams') playoff chances
 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

I've posted this site a few times before on the forums, but it's basically a statistical model of all of the NHL teams' likelihood of making the playoffs.

As of today,... Ducks have a 94% chance of making the playoffs. :yo:

Not trying to Jinx it, but they're doing better this year.

Kings are now 24%
We are now 94.8%

That site is only as strong as their statistical model of the strength of each team, which has frequently been flawed. Regardless, it's way too early for their numbers to be meaningful - they have a 12% swing in Dallas' playoff chances based off a win or a loss tomorrow. Which is ludicrous.

Resurrecting this!

3/8

Ducks @ 99.9%
Queens @ 83.2%

Surprises:

Philly @ 15.5%
Ottawa @ 79%
Nashville @ 19.4%
Toronto @ 91%

Until it says IN I will still be cringing during games, I can't wait until the season gets down to the wire and we have a shot at the division and already made the playoffs. In my eyes I will be relaxed watching games and just enjoy the battle, right now I cringe every time we give up a goal.

There are 8 points between 3rd and 15th in the West. Again, those numbers are garbage.

And the Ducks need 9 wins to make the playoffs. Who cares how garbage they are? I'm not gonna cringe if we drop a few contests.

11 up in the division, kings and sharks each have a game in hand, Chicago is due to lose some games, the no.1 seed is NOT out of the question, we're 8 back w/2 in hand

Am I the only one who DOESN'T want the Ducks to win the Presidents Trophy? I just think of the Sharts and Canucks and perennial playoff choking. Seems like teams often take a breather in the first round after winning it. Would rather take the division and keep momentum.

We're making the playoffs, up to 100%.

Might as well plan the parade! :sarcasm:

we have an 11% chance at the number 1 seed and chicago has basically lost 1 game. no.1 here we come!:yo:

Well, that site is flawed in the way that it forecasts the Ducks to continue playing the same way they've played so far. While even then there'd be a very small chance of them not making the playoffs (some teams winning everything and other losing everything), I don't generally start following that site until there's about 10 games left on the season. Probably even less this season.

It's interesting, but not very valuable at this point in time.

And of course the Ducks are going to the playoffs.

I don't necessarily care if they win it or not but yeah, that trophy sure gets overblown. I don't give a damn about the Presidents Trophy. The game exist for one reason only. To drink from the chalice of Lord Stanley. All others are but a false god.

I would like to try and pass up the Hawks.... But they are playing so damn well. It would be pretty sweet to get 1st in western conference.

Ask the Sedins how that's working out for them.

President's Trophy winners are 7/26 winning the Cup since they started awarding the trophy. I kinda doubt that any other place fares better than that.

Idk...if we have to give away Perry I sure wouldn't mind a President's trophy banner hanging next to a new Pacific division championship banner up in the rafters. I mean...unfortunately my head is already prepping myself for the playoffs and I have day dreams of Saku Koivu finally lifting the cup dancing around in my head, but this team is a one that simply COULD go all the way. They don't seem like favorites at all.

It feels like all those odds are made up by someone just making guesses based on the standings. The higher on the standings the closer to 100%. Which is generally true, but I bet any one of us can guess the percentages, and get similar numbers.

Guys, the way the numbers work is pretty simple. They aren't odds. They are probabilities based off simulations. All it does it simulate the the rest of the season millions (4.3 million to be exact) of times. The "playoff chances" are just the percent of those simulations that the team made it.

In other words, right now, the Ducks are in the top 8 in 100% of the simulations (rounded...about 800 simulations had them out of the playoffs which is about 0.00018 of the simulations.

They do the simulations two ways. The default way is weighted, where the better teams have a better chance of winning any single game. You can also switch to a 50/50 method where all teams have equal chance of winning any single game.

They aren't made up by some guy, and they do have plenty of merit.

That makes non-presidents trophy winners 19/26 :nod:

Brilliant! All a team needs to do is finish simultaneously in every other spot to raise its chances.

Division winners as a group generally do well. From my quick count a division winner has won 14 of the last 18 cups.

Which means your odds are greater at winning the Cup if you win the PT.

There is one PT winning team, and 15 other teams that don't win it, who are capable of winning the Cup.

7/26 is a misleading statistic because it includes the $$$ superteams of the 90's. The President's Cup winner has only won once in 7 tries (with only 2 appearances) since the last lockout once parity came into the league. Compared to 6 wins and 8 finals appearance in 19 years prior to the lockout.

That's true, and a fair point, but the sample size since then is pretty small. I don't think you could really say you're better off not winning it so early. On the other hand, it would be very interesting to me to see the success rate of teams that were in the running for the PT.

I was being facetious.