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-   -   Grade prospects by probability of making the NHL (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1345371)

fedfed 02-09-2013 04:47 AM

Grade prospects by probability of making the NHL
 
Please grade Caps prospects by probability of making the NHL (not overall talent).
A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - B
Boyd, Travis - D
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - C
Djoos, Christian - C
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - C
Grubauer, Philipp - B
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - D
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin - D
McNeill, Patrick - C
Mitchell, Garrett - B
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - C
Soberg, Steffen - D
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - C
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan - C
Wellman, Casey - C
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - B
Wuthrich, Austin - D

A: 4
B: 6
C: 9
D: 9
E: 7

msrulo 02-09-2013 05:01 AM

I would grade it very close to yours actually. I'm questioning Filip Forsberg "A" level potential though. He plays for the second tier of Swedish leagues and if you compare the stats to Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson in Edmonton, it seems like a draft bust.

fedfed 02-09-2013 05:14 AM

MPS, year after draft: 29 points in 49 games in Elitserien;
Forsberg: 28 points in 30 games in Allsvenskan.
Difference between Elitserien and Allsvenskan is not as drastic as in other countries (say, KHL/VHL in Russia). So I wouldn't say he's a bust.

SimplySensational 02-09-2013 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by msrulo (Post 59337765)
I would grade it very close to yours actually. I'm questioning Filip Forsberg "A" level potential though. He plays for the second tier of Swedish leagues and if you compare the stats to Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson in Edmonton, it seems like a draft bust.

To compare players and their abilities to make the NHL based upon stats is quite hilarious.

Also its hardly convincing Brad, we know its you.

msrulo 02-09-2013 05:33 AM

I agree that stats hardly mean anything in the talent perspective. Just pointing out what other people are saying about Forsberg. I'm a Caps fan for life, who is Brad?

SimplySensational 02-09-2013 05:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by msrulo (Post 59337931)
I agree that stats hardly mean anything in the talent perspective. Just pointing out what other people are saying about Forsberg. I'm a Caps fan for life, who is Brad?

After research, I believe you aren't Brad...

InjuredChoker 02-09-2013 05:53 AM

MPS will likely be NHLer, not just what he was projected to be.

Liberati0n* 02-09-2013 02:25 PM

A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - B
Boyd, Travis - E
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - D
Djoos, Christian - C
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - B
Grubauer, Philipp - C
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - E
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin - D
McNeill, Patrick - E
Mitchell, Garrett - C
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - D
Soberg, Steffen - D
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - D
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan - E
Wellman, Casey - D
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - B
Wuthrich, Austin - E

A: 4
B: 5
C: 4
D: 10
E: 12

I guess mine came out considerably less optimistic on the more marginal guys. A 20% chance to make the NHL is pretty high though.

BiPolar Caps 02-09-2013 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liberati0n (Post 59353053)
A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - B
Boyd, Travis - E
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - D
Djoos, Christian - C
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - B
Grubauer, Philipp - C
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - E
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin - D
McNeill, Patrick - E
Mitchell, Garrett - C
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - D
Soberg, Steffen - D
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - D
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan - E
Wellman, Casey - D
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - B
Wuthrich, Austin - E

A: 4
B: 5
C: 4
D: 10
E: 12

I guess mine came out considerably less optimistic on the more marginal guys. A 20% chance to make the NHL is pretty high though.

I think Grubauer before Galiev, but that's just me. I know different positions, but Galiev bouncing between Reading and Hershey is a red flag for me.

Liberati0n* 02-09-2013 02:35 PM

It is, but he obviously has the talent. I think it will take longer, but he'll make it. He may not be a good NHL player but I think he'll be there. I think he's low in the B range. I think goalies are less likely to stick and Grubauer has mostly played in the ECHL (I know, so has Galiev). A ~50% chance for a goalie is high.

Ovechkins Wodka 02-09-2013 02:38 PM

Galiev is a bust already in my mind

BiPolar Caps 02-09-2013 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liberati0n (Post 59354175)
It is, but he obviously has the talent. I think it will take longer, but he'll make it. He may not be a good NHL player but I think he'll be there. I think he's low in the B range. I think goalies are less likely to stick and Grubauer has mostly played in the ECHL (I know, so has Galiev). A ~50% chance for a goalie is high.

Goalies seem to really come of age in the late 20's, so taking the slow and long route with Grubauer is just fine. I think he'll make Neuvy expendable at some point, unless we get a vet in to replace Neuvy in the meantime.

Liberati0n* 02-09-2013 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ref9 (Post 59355707)
Goalies seem to really come of age in the late 20's, so taking the slow and long route with Grubauer is just fine. I think he'll make Neuvy expendable at some point, unless we get a vet in to replace Neuvy in the meantime.

Right, so it's hard to conclude he has more than a 50% chance to make the NHL based on ECHL and limited AHL play. That's what I was getting at.

Devil Dancer 02-09-2013 03:10 PM

It doesn't look great for Galiev right now, but it's too early to put the bust label on him. He's only played 17 AHL games, and he's a PPG player in the ECHL with no prior pro experience. Give him a year to try to figure it out.

ALee10 02-09-2013 03:25 PM

Galiev just turned 21 and is in his first pro season, he's a kid playing with men. Let's wait to pass judgment on him for a little while.

Atlas 02-09-2013 03:48 PM

I'm a bit concerned that Tom Wilson didn't make the WJC team. I know, I know the competition was stiff and he's a young guy and there was a lock-out. Still, it worries me. I expect he'll make it to the NHL but will he be anything beyond a 4th liner?

SimplySensational 02-09-2013 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atlas (Post 59362545)
I'm a bit concerned that Tom Wilson didn't make the WJC team. I know, I know the competition was stiff and he's a young guy and there was a lock-out. Still, it worries me. I expect he'll make it to the NHL but will he be anything beyond a 4th liner?

They could of used Tom Wilson. The team was built terribly.

PuckBuddy 02-09-2013 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fedfed (Post 59337689)
A: 4
B: 6
C: 9
D: 9
E: 7

Just as a sanity check on your numbers, you're saying that a player in the Caps' system has about a 35% chance of making the NHL. That sounds very optimistic.

PuckBuddy 02-09-2013 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liberati0n (Post 59353053)
A: 4
B: 5
C: 4
D: 10
E: 12

I guess mine came out considerably less optimistic on the more marginal guys. A 20% chance to make the NHL is pretty high though.

You've got players in the system having about a 30% chance to make the show. This still sounds pretty unreasonable.

Brad Tolliver 02-09-2013 08:31 PM

Galiev will probably head for the KHL once his ELC is up if he doesn't crack the NHL by then, which he probably won't. If his skill alone can't even cut it in the AHL then it doesn't bode well for the future. Being a PPG player in the ECHL is literally the bare minimum for a "prospect" that's top-6 or nothing. Anything less than that would be a complete waste of a roster/contract slot.

Canada's problem at the WJC wasn't because they didn't take Wilson. They didn't have the players to handle the speed teams on the big rink. OTOH it means very little in projecting what he would do in the NHL.

usiel 02-09-2013 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atlas (Post 59362545)
I'm a bit concerned that Tom Wilson didn't make the WJC team. I know, I know the competition was stiff and he's a young guy and there was a lock-out. Still, it worries me. I expect he'll make it to the NHL but will he be anything beyond a 4th liner?

The WJC tourney is not really a good one for a player like Wilson due to the way penalties are called. Barring his recent suspension he seems to have tamed it down a bit which bodes well for next year.

NobodyBeatsTheWiz 02-09-2013 10:36 PM

Wait, Galiev is a bust in his first pro season?

Seriously?

Bure 02-09-2013 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver (Post 59382983)
Galiev will probably head for the KHL once his ELC is up if he doesn't crack the NHL by then, which he probably won't. If his skill alone can't even cut it in the AHL then it doesn't bode well for the future. Being a PPG player in the ECHL is literally the bare minimum for a "prospect" that's top-6 or nothing. Anything less than that would be a complete waste of a roster/contract slot.

Canada's problem at the WJC wasn't because they didn't take Wilson. They didn't have the players to handle the speed teams on the big rink. OTOH it means very little in projecting what he would do in the NHL.

What makes you think we is good enough for the KHL if he can't even crack Hershey?

NobodyBeatsTheWiz 02-09-2013 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bure (Post 59398709)
What makes you think we is good enough for the KHL if he can't even crack Hershey?

Probably because the larger ice surface of the KHL is more suited to his game, whereas the physical element of the AHL is what is causing his struggles.

Marshall 02-09-2013 10:42 PM

Galiev was the flavor of the month for Steve "Flyers Blogger" Whyno - and he's spent as much time in the ECHL as the AHL. Whyno created a story out of nothing.

Wilson will make the bigs, if just as a heavy. He's got much more talent than that, though, and I hope the Caps keep him in the minors/AHL as long as possible.

Kuznetsov/Forsberg? 1st liners in the NHL in 3 years. Likely not before, though Kuznetsov seems to have the talent/game. Just the contract, as a modifier.

The Caps have two blue-chip forwards set up to arrive in consecutive years. Always draft by need, but the defense could use some prospects, considering Mike Green no longer has puck skills and Carlson has decided that he's already the best defenseman in the league. (He's incorrect.)


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