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1865 02-10-2013 10:54 AM

Homer's Odyssey
 
Just branching off from a discussion on the Luke Schenn thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beef Invictus (Post 59378037)
Trading away all your prospects and draft picks until you're in a situation where you don't have any players to call up, or the cap space to fill holes via FA, is more than an "odd mistake." Signing Leighton to be the starter instead of getting basically anybody else, and the ensuing nuclear fallout, is more than the "odd mistake." As I've said, he's done a pretty good (generally) job fixing those mistakes; if you're going to take the risks Homer does, that's an essential skill. The team is screwed if he continues to play with fire and someday can't put it out. I don't see how that's a "can't-win" scenario for Holmgren; that's an appraisal I think is very realistic, IMO.

That's all I've got for the subject, I don't want to derail the thread any further.

We do trade a lot of our prospects and picks, but that's to continue on with having a damn good operating roster - we do and always do. Whenever we've needed to get players we've got them. We went and got Timonen and Hartnell. We got Pronger. We almost got Weber, Suter or Parise. Cap space is always tight but it's the same for every team in the league who genuinely want to win. Are there any teams in the league who have a strong roster and a strong prospect pool who haven't spent time at the bottom of the league? Is it even possible to keep a great team and a strong prospect pool whilst always being a top team?

Leighton had earned his contract. Sure, he'd had help off the defence but his stat line was fine. It didn't work out but then he offered a similar risk to Matt Read and look how that's going...

One thing i've always said about Holmgren is that he's damned immediately after every decision and people don't take into account that a lot of them work out. Timonen's contract was panned, worked out. Briere's contract was ridiculed, worked out alright. Dropping Gagne, good move. Trading Richards was criticised, that's looking damn fine. Trading Carter was hated, good trade. Even Bryzgalov's contract doesn't look as bad now as it did in June.

Bottom line is that he always keeps us as a top 5 team in the East (even this year will prove to be so) with zero transition years. He's even coped with the permanent loss of one of the best defensemen in the world and one of the most prolonged injury curses in the league.

He's made mistakes but who hasn't? At least he repeatedly makes up for them and never ever guts the Flyers roster.

CS 02-10-2013 10:58 AM

The only REAL mistake Holmgren made was trading a 1st for Eminger.

He's spent a ton of assets just fixing that one mistake in what has become an ever-expanding cluster**** that he has to constantly clean up.

It's not like it was the worst move ever to make, but the cause and effect ladder can lead you all the way up to trading JVR for Schenn.

Causality is tricky business, but in general Holmgren has proven to be one of if not the best GM in the league despite one mistake that he has to constantly keep fixing or (god forbid) we have one crap year.

Theoretically, as long as nothing happens to LSchenn and we manage to slide a young, solid defenseman in for Timonen without blowing a ton of assets, Holmgren will have finally stabilized the great causality chain that began with trading a 1st for Eminger.

1865 02-10-2013 11:00 AM

There's no guarantee the Flyers would even have picked Carlson with that pick.

Bit loose to link the JVR deal and the Eminger trade. Pronger's injury is surely the biggest catalyst of that?

CS 02-10-2013 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1865 (Post 59422851)
There's no guarantee the Flyers would even have picked Carlson with that pick.

Bit loose to link the JVR deal and the Eminger trade. Pronger's injury is surely the biggest catalyst of that?

It's really loose and a lot of bad luck goes through it.

But we're still searching for a #1 defenseman. Let's say we get that Carlson pick-up.

We now have Carlson and Sbisa working within our defense. How much pressure is there to pick up Pronger?

Without picking up Pronger you save two more 1st round picks to use at your discretion, possibly on defense.

If you have a strong defense (there was never a Pronger so Pronger's injury doesn't affect you. you also have Sbisa and Carlson; both younger/healthier), you don't need to throw the kitchen sink of draft picks at Weber, and upon failing that, you certainly don't need to trade JVR for LSchenn.


Causality is tricky and certainly not guaranteed. As loose at it is though, you can see how us taking Carlson at that one spot changes our team incredibly.......or it doesn't and we throw him AND Sbisa to get Pronger. Who knows?

GoneFullHextall 02-10-2013 11:15 AM

The Flyers have had the worst farm club in the AHL the last few years.
Dont you think that keeping some of those high draft picks would of changed that?
bottom 5 prospect group as well. Especially after Laughton,Cousins and Stolarz.
How long will that "but we have a young core excuse fly"? I have said it before, and I will say it again. Probably not for the last time. Having a solid "young" core is no excuse for having poor prospect depth and a God awfull AHL team.

Spread Eagle 02-10-2013 11:19 AM

The Flyers draft smart, they were able sustain a young competitive roster despite trading Sbisa and a handful of 1st for Pronger. They have made the most of the draft picks they retain. when trading players they have brought in young players to sustain themselves. Trading for Coburn (a huge steal), Turning Nashville's 1st back to them for the rights to Hartnell and Timonen.

I still feel Holmgren’s biggest accomplishment was during his first full year as GM, he inherited a team that many predicted to be abysmal. I remember reading the Flyers needs on TSN during his first off season and thinking I would be happy if he could obtain half of that.
A first line center, a #1 Dman, two top 6 fwds and a goalie

He started his fix prior to the trade deadline and worked through the off season brining in Briere, Timonen, Hartnell, Lupul and Biron.

I forget what other moves he made, but his turn around was impressive.

achdumeingute 02-10-2013 11:22 AM

I don't know...I think he's made quite a few mistakes, but he's fixed many of them. He did well with the Coburn, Carter, and Richards deals.

Pronger's cost was just too darned high. Should have never paid that much for just 1 player.

Eminger was a bad deal, that we salvaged for 4 seasons with Carle..but also cost us another first in Downie.

Versteeg buy high, sell low.

He HAS to be more mindful of our first round picks going forward.

Beef Invictus 02-10-2013 11:22 AM

Leighton never earned that contract. Never did it look like he could be a true starting goalie. There was a reason so many people were excited for the possibility of signing a real goalie in his place, and were angry when that didn't happen. You know what? Those people were right. As predicted, the situation utterly collapsed and led to a knee jerk over reaction that has saddled us with an awful contract and cost us our best goaltending prospect in years.

Let's also not forget the bacground to the Richards and Carter trades. The team was against the wall. We needed a goalie. We needed to sign FAs to fill roster holes, because we had zero prospects worth calling up...we also had zero cap space to do all those things, and it was abundantly clear people were going to be traded because there was no choice. Why was there no choice? Holmgren's moves. He bled prospects and draft picks (the Versteeg deal was pointless in the end, and cost us a pick. Hooray.) until the team was against that wall and he had to blow things up and do a flying rebuild. Yes, he did an excellent job with that rebuild. Let's not forget that he is responsible for creating the situation that necessitated the rebuild. Let's not forget the players he shed were important parts of another team's cup run immediately afterwards. He gambled hard and that gamble is still in progress. The mission is far from accomplished.

He's done some good stuff, but that doesn't sweep the rest of it under the carpet. If he keeps at it, how long until the team is back in the situation where it needs to trade players and rebuild? How long until one of his gambles truly blows up?

People forget that the 2010 offseason was a complete failure. And that isn't hindsight. It was recognized as a failure at the time. It ended up being a major catalyst for blowing up the team t he next year.

GoneFullHextall 02-10-2013 11:24 AM

Speaking of that Pronger trade. Holmgren could of made one of those firsts a conditional one instead of the 3rd being conditional. Since He was bidding against himself for Pronger.
I am not saying Holmgren is a bad GM. Hes made some mistakes. Hes just made some pretty bad ones along the way. Cap management being one of them.

JagerPuck 02-10-2013 11:24 AM

I personally think Holmgren has been sold on talent that may or may not be up to snuff with the rest of the league.
At times some of his moves look like he really is trying to ruin the future of this team.
Personally have run out of patience with his tenure. I dont think they are contenders this year and its really hard for me to say that.
Awful draft pick management, contract limit issues, term and salary overpayment.. The list goes on.

Spread Eagle 02-10-2013 11:25 AM

Who cares how poor our farm club is, or how poorly our prospect depth is rated. We have one of the youngest teams in the NHL and are currently competitive. These comments have been made for years and it has barely effected the NHL product. The Flyers will make moves as necessary to fill gaps. We have a plethora of young talent that management is fond of and sees potential in. why is it so important to ice a competitive AHL team?

achdumeingute 02-10-2013 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beef Invictus (Post 59423845)
He's done some good stuff, but that doesn't sweep the rest of it under the carpet. If he keeps at it, how long until the team is back in the situation where it needs to trade players and rebuild? How long until one of his gambles truly blows up?

And this is really the biggest question.

We were close. We thought it was going to happen. Was he just pushing for the win, which almost worked? Now that we are not "close"....will he be smart with our farm? Who knows....

achdumeingute 02-10-2013 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spread Eagle (Post 59423955)
Who cares how poor our farm club is, or how poorly our prospect depth is rated. We have one of the youngest teams in the NHL and are currently competitive. These comments have been made for years and it has barely effected the NHL product. The Flyers will make moves as necessary to fill gaps. We have a plethora of young talent that management is fond of and sees potential in. why is it so important to ice a competitive AHL team?

It's not about the AHL, its about organizational depth.

Example: The kings could trade Jack Johnson for Carter because they had Voynov waiting in the wings. If we had a deeper farm...we would have a little room with making a deal to get some young talent in areas we are weak at. I don't know, I would certainly prefer we not have traded JVR for Schenn....while I like Schenn, he's not the better player in that deal.

JagerPuck 02-10-2013 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beef Invictus (Post 59423845)
Leighton never earned that contract. Never did it look like he could be a true starting goalie. There was a reason so many people were excited for the possibility of signing a real goalie in his place, and were angry when that didn't happen. You know what? Those people were right. As predicted, the situation utterly collapsed and led to a knee jerk over reaction that has saddled us with an awful contract and cost us our best goaltending prospect in years.

Let's also not forget the bacground to the Richards and Carter trades. The team was against the wall. We needed a goalie. We needed to sign FAs to fill roster holes, because we had zero prospects worth calling up...we also had zero cap space to do all those things, and it was abundantly clear people were going to be traded because there was no choice. Why was there no choice? Holmgren's moves. He bled prospects and draft picks (the Versteeg deal was pointless in the end, and cost us a pick. Hooray.) until the team was against that wall and he had to blow things up and do a flying rebuild. Yes, he did an excellent job with that rebuild. Let's not forget that he is responsible for creating the situation that necessitated the rebuild. Let's not forget the players he shed were important parts of another team's cup run immediately afterwards. He gambled hard and that gamble is still in progress. The mission is far from accomplished.

He's done some good stuff, but that doesn't sweep the rest of it under the carpet. If he keeps at it, how long until the team is back in the situation where it needs to trade players and rebuild? How long until one of his gambles truly blows up?

Agree with all of this.
Its only a matter of time before Bryz gets hurt or goes back to space camp and were left with ****ing MICHAEL LEIGHTON.
Giving Leighton a contract was the straw that broke the camels back for me.
And beyond Leighton.. who else is there? Cal Heeter? Hahahaha, were screwed.

Devils fans truly have had it made for the past 2 decades.

And when it comes to organizational depth..
Look at signings like Jody Shelly, Ruslan Fedotenko, sadly I have to lop Knuble into this little list, Gervais, Foster..
Guys that really have had played good NHL games but are wayy past their level of effectiveness in this league.

Ready for a new regime.

GoneFullHextall 02-10-2013 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spread Eagle (Post 59423955)
Who cares how poor our farm club is, or how poorly our prospect depth is rated. We have one of the youngest teams in the NHL and are currently competitive. These comments have been made for years and it has barely effected the NHL product. The Flyers will make moves as necessary to fill gaps. We have a plethora of young talent that management is fond of and sees potential in. why is it so important to ice a competitive AHL team?

who cares? LOL. i care. Most people around here do. How many guys on that Phantoms you think can be counted on to really help out long term in case of injury? look at that roster. its a joke.
Maybe if we had some depth down there and some good prospects we wouldnt have to throw away 1st and 2nd round picks on rentals to get us into the playoffs. At what point do we say oh wow, we may want to start adressing out prospect depth and our farm club?
you want to know why its a good idea to have a good farm club with good prospects? Take a look at the last team that just won the Stanley Cup. A dozen players came thru Manchester from that team.
But yeah who gives a **** about a ****** farm club full of AHL vets and a joke of a prospect group beyong the top 3.
We have a young core! it doesnt matter. :facepalm:

achdumeingute 02-10-2013 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JagerPuck (Post 59424195)
Ruslan Fedotenko, sadly I have to lop Knuble into this little list, Gervais, Foster..
Guys that really have had played good NHL games but are wayy past their level of effectiveness in this league.

Huh?

None of these have been bad moves. Short terms, low salary. No problems. Who do you want him to go sign...there was/is nobody. Jody shelley...yea not the best contract.

Adam Warlock 02-10-2013 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren (Post 59423525)
The Flyers have had the worst farm club in the AHL the last few years.
Dont you think that keeping some of those high draft picks would of changed that?
bottom 5 prospect group as well. Especially after Laughton,Cousins and Stolarz.
How long will that "but we have a young core excuse fly"? I have said it before, and I will say it again. Probably not for the last time. Having a solid "young" core is no excuse for having poor prospect depth and a God awfull AHL team.


Giroux, Vorecek, Simmonds, Read, Couturier, Schenn.

Having a young core like that does justify having a thin farm system. After all...if they had a couple stud forwards knocking on the door...where exactly would they play? Those six names above figure to be in our top 9 for the next several years, along with Talbot, hartnell, and eventually Laughton. The main reason we don't have stud prospects is because our stud prospects have been good enough to make the team already. As for callups, I think guys like Wellwood, Harry Z, McGinn, and Sestito do a good job filling in.

It would be nice to have a star D prospect in the minors, but there are only so many of them out there. Gust and Bourdon have shown they can fill in when healthy too.

Homer doesnt always make the best moves, but he has done a pretty good job keeping this team competitive now and secure for the future. He has made buyer and seller type moves...its not like the Flyers are in the position the Phillies are in.

JagerPuck 02-10-2013 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by achdumeingute (Post 59424329)
Huh?

None of these have been bad moves. Short terms, low salary. No problems. Who do you want him to go sign...there was/is nobody. Jody shelley...yea not the best contract.

Just saying that these are the same type of "plugs" this team had back in 06-07.
Normally an NHL team would have decent depth within their organization to not have to sign 2-3 crusty vets to come right in and play every game.
Everyone is SO SOLD on Voracek and Schenn being awesome 75 point players.. news flash.. not a STONE COLD LOCK that either of those guys are going to produce on a regular basis.
But the Flyers will trade what little prospect depth they have and probably a score of draft picks this year just to TRY and keep up with all the teams moving RIGHT on past them with proven talent (Pitt, NYR, NJ).

nuclear reactor 02-10-2013 11:43 AM

I hope some of the fans of the perpetually awful teams in this league stroll by here and see you guys whining about back-up goalies and AHL rosters. And I bet their team has an awesome group of prospects that will never pan out. Meanwhile the Flyers will continue to add good young players to a competitive team.

Beef Invictus 02-10-2013 11:44 AM

Those players justifify the empty prospect system only right now. For this season, taken alone, it's not a huge issue. If he doesn't start developing talent from within, it will become a huge issue down the road...again. It's been an issue before. It's time for Homer to show he's capable of building from within, because that's how Cups are won.

JagerPuck 02-10-2013 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mota (Post 59424459)
...its not like the Flyers are in the position the Phillies are in.

The Flyers are worse off, believe it.
At least in baseball you can spend however much money you can humanly afford.
The Phillies have a (to be rumored) unending supply of funding and could basically buy any player in the league.

achdumeingute 02-10-2013 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nuclear reactor (Post 59424719)
Meanwhile the Flyers will continue to add good young players to a competitive team.

What are these good young players we will be adding?

GoneFullHextall 02-10-2013 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mota (Post 59424459)
Giroux, Vorecek, Simmonds, Read, Couturier, Schenn.

Having a young core like that does justify having a thin farm system. After all...if they had a couple stud forwards knocking on the door...where exactly would they play? Those six names above figure to be in our top 9 for the next several years, along with Talbot, hartnell, and eventually Laughton. The main reason we don't have stud prospects is because our stud prospects have been good enough to make the team already. As for callups, I think guys like Wellwood, Harry Z, McGinn, and Sestito do a good job filling in.

It would be nice to have a star D prospect in the minors, but there are only so many of them out there. Gust and Bourdon have shown they can fill in when healthy too.

Homer doesnt always make the best moves, but he has done a pretty good job keeping this team competitive now and secure for the future. He has made buyer and seller type moves...its not like the Flyers are in the position the Phillies are in.

I disagree. There is no justification for it. The core is young. I wont deny that, but its still no excuse to have a poor prospect core and an even worse farm club. All those guys you mentioned I would not trust above the 4th line short term.
Bourdon is a non factor as he is currently dealing with PCS and he may never be the same again.
Having a good prospect group negates giving away high draft picks like candy. How many of those trades have worked out recently other then Grossman?
Again, I am not saying hes a bad GM. He just had some awfull asset management lately and has a habit of bidding against himself when making a deal. Most recently the Kubina trade.

RJ8812* 02-10-2013 11:52 AM

well, having your #1 defenseman end his career early and having the two players (Carter, Richards) you planned on building your team around force themselves off the team wasn't something he could control

GoneFullHextall 02-10-2013 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by achdumeingute (Post 59424935)
What are these good young players we will be adding?

Klotz and Derek Mathers obviously :sarcasm:


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