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-   -   Value of: Top 10 Pick 2013 (Habs / Jackets) (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1347007)

KadoCH 02-10-2013 08:09 PM

Top 10 Pick 2013 (Habs / Jackets)
 
Supposedly a deep draft with a little bit of a drop off around 8th or 9th, and I'm just wondering hypothetically what you guys think a pick will go for.

If the Jackets ended up with 4th, 8th , and 18th for instance and the Habs finish around 7th to 10th in the East.

What do you see the cost as the 8th pick?

From Habs
15th, 45th (2nd) and 165th (5th)

For

8th (CBJ/NYR/LAK)

Would that do the trick?

The Jackets lose their 3rd if the Rangers don't make the cup finals so this gives them another top 50 pick and they still end up with 3 top 20 choices.

LordandSavior 02-10-2013 08:38 PM

If Montreal wants a forward, then keep the 15th pick. Mantha, Gauthier, Erne, Domi... will be available. If Montreal wants a defender then trade to 8th for the chance at Zadorov, Nurse, Pulock, Ristolainen and if their lucky a forward like Shinkaruk will fall.

Value is fair though. Maybe even without the 5th added. Talent isnt that different between 8th and 15th.

KadoCH 02-10-2013 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habs4TheCup (Post 59462199)
If Montreal wants a forward, then keep the 15th pick. Mantha, Gauthier, Erne, Domi... will be available. If Montreal wants a defender then trade to 8th for the chance at Zadorov, Nurse, Pulock, Ristolainen and if their lucky a forward like Shinkaruk will fall.

Value is fair though. Maybe even without the 5th added. Talent isnt that different between 8th and 15th.

My thinking is one of Monahan, Shinaruk should be available at 8 and other guys like Lindholm(probably top 5/6) or Nichushkin (bit more risk) would be options there.

There's only really Seth Jones consensus Dman in the top 5 right now, but I'm assuming a team at 5-7 will take one of the guys in the next group and leave the team at 8 to pick between two of the guys I mentioned above.

Pekka Rinne 02-10-2013 10:22 PM

I dont think a 2nd and a 5th will be enough to move up 7 spots into the top 10.

TheJuxtaposer 02-10-2013 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pekka Rinne (Post 59470319)
I dont think a 2nd and a 5th will be enough to move up 7 spots into the top 10.

I agree. Besides, Columbus needs quality over quantity.

KadoCH 02-10-2013 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pekka Rinne (Post 59470319)
I dont think a 2nd and a 5th will be enough to move up 7 spots into the top 10.

The only comparables I could find was

2005 Sharks traded up to 8th for the 12th for the 49th and a 7th round pick.

2007 Sharks moved up to 9th for the 13th and 44th picks.

Habs I don't think have a fourth but should be able to acquire one I would say if they needed to sweeten the pot I would assume.

TheJuxtaposer 02-10-2013 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KadoCH (Post 59471991)
The only comparables I could find was

2005 Sharks traded up to 8th for the 12th for the 49th and a 7th round pick.

2007 Sharks moved up to 9th for the 13th and 44th picks.

Habs I don't think have a fourth but should be able to acquire one I would say if they needed to sweeten the pot I would assume.

Those are both 4 spot increases. Not 7-8 spots.

couture23 02-11-2013 12:51 AM

Buffalo moved up from 21 to 14 to grab Girgensons and all it took was an added 2nd rounder. Albeit, Calgary was really high on Jankowski and had no trouble moving down.

Leafs For Life* 02-11-2013 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by couture23 (Post 59475561)
Buffalo moved up from 21 to 14 to grab Girgensons and all it took was an added 2nd rounder. Albeit, Calgary was really high on Jankowski and had no trouble moving down.

Higher down you go, more assets to give up so your comparison is invalid. Lets say 8th+2nd rounder for 2nd ovr. Nobody does that. It's the opposite of yours (2nd-8th-14th).

IceDaddy 02-11-2013 05:46 AM

In b4 "subban or GTFO"

KadoCH 02-11-2013 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by couture23 (Post 59475561)
Buffalo moved up from 21 to 14 to grab Girgensons and all it took was an added 2nd rounder. Albeit, Calgary was really high on Jankowski and had no trouble moving down.

Ya I think it was the Sens gave the 35th and 48th for 24th last draft or two ago maybe so there is not "set" value of what a 2nd can add because that's 11 spots.

If a 1 + 2 + 5 doesn't move 7 spots into 8th I think that switching the 5th to a 4th does.

CharlesHabsFan 02-11-2013 08:43 AM

Montreal can afford giving a 2nd round pick as we have 3 this year, Calgary and Nashville's plus ours.

Giving Nashville's pick + our 1st to move up a few spots to Columbus' spot could be advantageous, but it all depends who we end up drafting then.

I guess we'd have to see on draft day if it's worth it and if the Blue Jackets are willing...

Domino11 02-11-2013 09:03 AM

I don't know if u guys know but even if we finish 9 in our division we can steel get the 1 overall pick ... Even do Columbus got let say 2 pick in the top 15 it doesn't meen they will get high pick they could get 13 and 14 pick so right now it useless to talk about that since no body knows at what position we will draft cause everybody that doesn't make the playoff got the same chance to draft 1 overall

wilfred 02-11-2013 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Domino11 (Post 59482049)
I don't know if u guys know but even if we finish 9 in our division we can steel get the 1 overall pick ... Even do Columbus got let say 2 pick in the top 15 it doesn't meen they will get high pick they could get 13 and 14 pick so right now it useless to talk about that since no body knows at what position we will draft cause everybody that doesn't make the playoff got the same chance to draft 1 overall

are you sure about that? I am assuming that it will be a lottery like years before with the last place team getting a 40% chance and the odds get worse the more points you have. Also i am assuming that you can only move down 1 spot like years before.

If I am wrong please let me know

roboninja 02-11-2013 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilfred (Post 59482407)
are you sure about that? I am assuming that it will be a lottery like years before with the last place team getting a 40% chance and the odds get worse the more points you have. Also i am assuming that you can only move down 1 spot like years before.

If I am wrong please let me know

You are right, the chances are different. You get a much higher chance at the #1 overall if you have a bad record. The main change this year is that anyone can win. In the past, if the team in 8th position got lucky and their ball was drawn first, they would still only move up to 4th spot. Now, they would be #1 overall.

alphafox 02-11-2013 10:01 AM

The availability of the pick is likely going to be very dependant on who is available @ 8. If as some are saying shinkaruk is available the price could very well be higher (i.e. habs first and 2the seconds) however if ther is a.run on forwards i can see a trade back to the mid/early teens to grab guys like erne/domi

Domino11 02-11-2013 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilfred (Post 59482407)
are you sure about that? I am assuming that it will be a lottery like years before with the last place team getting a 40% chance and the odds get worse the more points you have. Also i am assuming that you can only move down 1 spot like years before.

If I am wrong please let me know

Yes I am 100% sure about that !! Even do u finish border line of making the playoff u will have a chance at the 1 overall pick ..

KadoCH 02-11-2013 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Domino11 (Post 59484909)
Yes I am 100% sure about that !! Even do u finish border line of making the playoff u will have a chance at the 1 overall pick ..

It's still a weighted lottery so you have a chance but it the teams in the 10-14th spot have less then a 2% chance of getting the 1st over all pick.

Viqsi 02-11-2013 11:13 AM

Seems like a reasonable attempt, but, as has been said before, we kind of have a serious need for quality over quantity, so this would be highly dependent on who ends up getting drafted by whom.

candyman82 02-11-2013 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Domino11 (Post 59482049)
I don't know if u guys know but even if we finish 9 in our division we can steel get the 1 overall pick ... Even do Columbus got let say 2 pick in the top 15 it doesn't meen they will get high pick they could get 13 and 14 pick so right now it useless to talk about that since no body knows at what position we will draft cause everybody that doesn't make the playoff got the same chance to draft 1 overall

They don't have an equal chance, it's still weighted. Also, I'm pretty sure that they kept the rule about only being able to drop down one spot.

Domino11 02-11-2013 11:25 AM

Hopefully mtl will finish in the bottom 5 !! If at the deadline we decide not to push then will sell and believe me will finish in the bottom 5 if we decide to sell ..
If Markov , gionta, cole , and maybe plekanec are not there we will be in the bottom for sure ... Witch I hope this happen I'm tired of been a borderline playoff team

HooliganX2 02-11-2013 11:30 AM

It really depends on who is available and who the the CBJ scouts are high on. A trade like this wouldn't happen until draft day and there are so many things the will effect what the value of the #8 pick would be. It could possibly work depending on the players available.

LordandSavior 02-11-2013 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KadoCH (Post 59463869)
My thinking is one of Monahan, Shinaruk should be available at 8 and other guys like Lindholm(probably top 5/6) or Nichushkin (bit more risk) would be options there.

There's only really Seth Jones consensus Dman in the top 5 right now, but I'm assuming a team at 5-7 will take one of the guys in the next group and leave the team at 8 to pick between two of the guys I mentioned above.

I think the top 6 is set: Mac, Jones, Barkov, Drouin, Lindholm and Monahan. Depending on who the 7th pick is, it might be worth it for Montreal.

Double-Shift Lassť 02-11-2013 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HooliganX2 (Post 59487967)
It really depends on who is available and who the the CBJ scouts are high on. A trade like this wouldn't happen until draft day and there are so many things the will effect what the value of the #8 pick would be. It could possibly work depending on the players available.

And where each of the three first-rounders currently held by the Jackets winds up being.

leeroggy 02-11-2013 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KadoCH (Post 59459383)
Supposedly a deep draft with a little bit of a drop off around 8th or 9th, and I'm just wondering hypothetically what you guys think a pick will go for.

If the Jackets ended up with 4th, 8th , and 18th for instance and the Habs finish around 7th to 10th in the East.

What do you see the cost as the 8th pick?

From Habs
15th, 45th (2nd) and 165th (5th)

For

8th (CBJ/NYR/LAK)


If CBJ ends up with 4th, 8th and 18th they would be foolish to trade either 4 or 8. Maybe move down from 18. They are in desperate need of offensive skill and 4 and 8 will provide two big pieces this year. If they could draft Drouin and Monahan in this draft they say "Thank you G*d" and call it a day.


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