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-   -   How is Jokinen doing? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1355231)

Kaptah 02-20-2013 12:49 AM

How is Jokinen doing?
 
Not a lot of talk about his play. Is he doing okay, just not getting the bounces and points, or being a liability on ice?

DespoticNewt 02-20-2013 12:56 AM

I like what he's doing. He's physically aggressive on the puck and creating a lot of chances. He didn't really gel with Kane, but seems to be doing a good number with Tangradi and Antropov/Burmistrov on the wing.

Snot Rocket 02-20-2013 12:59 AM

His 200 ft game looks pretty good, just snake bit.

Tonight he was pretty good, seems there is a little chemistry on his line.

If only his shot that went off the crossbar went in, I think that would have been the Rx for his snake bite. I have not seen a shot like that in a long time from the Jets, it had some insane heat on it and rang the crossbar like a clear bell (slow mo showed the net moving/vibrating). Poor Miller actually looked scared through his mask, looked like a kid that was playing goal at the rink when some old pro showed up and brought out his panzerfaust. If he can repeat that, then all will be well.

This was what Miller saw...

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_v6Vx4TUIw6...anzerfaust.jpg

garret9 02-20-2013 01:24 AM

Lower percentage of shots have gone in the net while he's been on the ice than any other player on the top9.
With a shot like his you know it isn't skill but piss-poor luck... other than that he's doing fine. I like his defensive game and would like to see Noel try this for the forwards:

(not in order of TOI, that can differ in game)
Highest QoC, +50% OZS: Ladd-Jokinen-Little
Middle QoC, +50% OZS: Kane-Burmistrov-Wheeler
Middle QoC, ~50% OZS: Tangradi-Antropov-Wellwood
Lowest QoC, --50% OZS: Wright-Slater-Thorburn

Kaptah 02-20-2013 04:29 AM

For Jokinen to succeed, he has always needed to be the go-to-guy on his line. He has really excelled with lesser talent on his wing. So things not working out with Kane was no big surprise.

King Woodballs 02-20-2013 05:41 AM

I think he has been okay.

Nothing overly glaring to me.

He just needs to start potting a couple more of his offensive chances.

Inflict 02-20-2013 06:09 AM

Olli has had some good chances offensively, but the team has suffered from his lack of production. His defensive play has been somewhat poor, and it goes to show with his -7. Of course, it's not entirely his fault. He is usually better defensively than his linemates, but because he cannot seem to score, he is slowly moving down the depth chart and is currently on our 3rd line.

Here's hoping for a breakout game, because I like Olli and know he can do more than this.

sipowicz 02-20-2013 09:57 AM

They have a Joke-in thread in the Flames section, someone mentioned Joke-in's surprisingly good season last year and said it was because Sutter set out a game plan for him, they said without Sutter he just floated like he does here now.

GrandChelems 02-20-2013 09:59 AM

Give or take, probably what you'd expect 15 games into a new team. On the up.

sting13 02-20-2013 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 60084143)
Lower percentage of shots have gone in the net while he's been on the ice than any other player on the top9.
With a shot like his you know it isn't skill but piss-poor luck... other than that he's doing fine. I like his defensive game and would like to see Noel try this for the forwards:

(not in order of TOI, that can differ in game)
Highest QoC, +50% OZS: Ladd-Jokinen-Little
Middle QoC, +50% OZS: Kane-Burmistrov-Wheeler
Middle QoC, ~50% OZS: Tangradi-Antropov-Wellwood
Lowest QoC, --50% OZS: Wright-Slater-Thorburn

I would just flip Wheeler and Little from what you posted. I don't like Wheeler and
Kane on the same line as I find they play a similar style game.

truck 02-20-2013 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Woodballs (Post 60086597)
I think he has been okay.

Nothing overly glaring to me.

He just needs to start potting a couple more of his offensive chances.

Agreed.

He needs a bounce or two. He is getting shots and he has a wonderful shot but he is hitting posts more often than twine.

Historically he gets a lot of points from the point on the PowerPlay. Hopefully they move / keep him there.

Tdoe42 02-20-2013 10:43 AM

My expectations for him were Low... To me if he adds anything to the team its a bonus. He hasnt cost us games like Poni did so I give him a Pass so far

Turbofan 02-20-2013 10:44 AM

Seems like he's being transitioned to a defensive-checking role. Actually looked ok in that respect with Tangradi and Wright yesterday. Big-bodied line.

As far as what he was brought in to do though,and what he's getting paid? Not delivering.

ps241 02-20-2013 11:02 AM

needs to find his scoring touch but he plays a very solid 200 foot game.

garret9 02-20-2013 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inflict (Post 60086777)
Olli has had some good chances offensively, but the team has suffered from his lack of production. His defensive play has been somewhat poor, and it goes to show with his -7. Of course, it's not entirely his fault. He is usually better defensively than his linemates, but because he cannot seem to score, he is slowly moving down the depth chart and is currently on our 3rd line.

Here's hoping for a breakout game, because I like Olli and know he can do more than this.

Please don't say you are using +/- as a defensive stat by itself and that you are using what you saw.

+/- is one of the worst, if not the worst, stats by itself. Kane, Jokinen and Wheeler unfortunately got kick started with a terrible +/- as Pavelec's worst moments seemed to only happen when those 3 were on the ice, even though they weren't being terrible defensively. Pavelec's SV% for just the moments that they were on the ice was around 0.700... That put all of them in the top 20 worst for goaltending behind them.

garret9 02-20-2013 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wings (Post 60094073)
Seems like he's being transitioned to a defensive-checking role. Actually looked ok in that respect with Tangradi and Wright yesterday. Big-bodied line.

As far as what he was brought in to do though,and what he's getting paid? Not delivering.

The third line hasn't been a defensive checking line since Noel broke up the USSR line (Poni-Burmi-Antro) with the exception of 2 games with Welly instead of either Burmi or Antro. Noel has actually used the line with Ladd and Little, since they are the ones that usually line up against the top line, and then usually Kane's line faces the second to top.

Inflict 02-21-2013 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 60099919)
Please don't say you are using +/- as a defensive stat by itself and that you are using what you saw.

+/- is one of the worst, if not the worst, stats by itself. Kane, Jokinen and Wheeler unfortunately got kick started with a terrible +/- as Pavelec's worst moments seemed to only happen when those 3 were on the ice, even though they weren't being terrible defensively. Pavelec's SV% for just the moments that they were on the ice was around 0.700... That put all of them in the top 20 worst for goaltending behind them.

The -7 wouldn't be a problem if Olli actually provided offense (which he hasn't). And you can't say -7 is completely Pavelec's fault. It is a team game and you got to do two things - Defend and Score. Olli has done none of that so far.

garret9 02-21-2013 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inflict (Post 60148273)
The -7 wouldn't be a problem if Olli actually provided offense (which he hasn't). And you can't say -7 is completely Pavelec's fault. It is a team game and you got to do two things - Defend and Score. Olli has done none of that so far.

And I wouldn't say the lack of offense is Oli's fault....

Quote:

Jokinen
SOGSH%GSF/60OnSH%P/60
34 5.9 2 29.3 4.95 0.31
The only "Joke" is people not noticing him having Fehr level luck. How many crossbars/posts has he hit in just 14 games? Believe me, they'll come...
Ridiculously low shooting percentages compared to normal, plus Jets' flubbing the puck (not just including him) more often when he's on the ice than when he's not = low goals for
Pavelec playing his worst when Jokinen's on the ice = high goals against




Defensively in decrease shots against, scoring chances, other teams possesion Jokinen is actually doing BETTER than last season.
Offensively in creating shots for, scoring chances, and creating possession Jokinen is actually doing BETTER than last season.
So, to think that luck isn't playing a pretty big role in his lack of points and his +/- is pretty ignorant IMO. It's a team game, but you can usually stick out who is at fault by certain things... plus watching the game where most people here have detailed similar effects to what these stats point out.

Inflict 02-21-2013 03:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 60148829)
And I wouldn't say the lack of offense is Oli's fault....



Ridiculously low shooting percentages compared to normal, plus Jets' flubbing the puck (not just including him) more often when he's on the ice than when he's not = low goals for
Pavelec playing his worst when Jokinen's on the ice = high goals against



Defensively in decrease shots against, scoring chances, other teams possesion Jokinen is actually doing BETTER than last season.
Offensively in creating shots for, scoring chances, and creating possession Jokinen is actually doing BETTER than last season.
So, to think that luck isn't playing a pretty big role in his lack of points and his +/- is pretty ignorant IMO. It's a team game, but you can usually stick out who is at fault by certain things... plus watching the game where most people here have detailed similar effects to what these stats point out.

Well, there are two problems with comparing stats to last year. One, is that this is a lockout year with a shortened season (lots of different variables compared to a normal season). The second, is that we are not even halfway done with the season, and this is only a small sample size.

Other things to consider is that this is a new team and a new coaching system for Olli, so you would expect some growing pains. However, he has still been consistent in his lack of production even though his previous line mates (Kane & Wheeler) still found ways to score when they were on the ice together. So in my mind, this still does not excuse him for his lack of production. There is only so much you can blame on the team and on luck. Hitting the post may count as a quality scoring chance, but in reality, this doesn't help his production as it is a matter of accuracy rather than luck. All in all, I think it has to do with his lack of chemistry with his line mates more than anything.

Finally, I would like to ask why you think +/- is a bad stat to compare defense? I agree that +/- is a team stat more than anything, but how does that excuse Olli, or any other player for that matter, from failing to produce or defend 5 on 5 hockey?

garret9 02-21-2013 04:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inflict (Post 60152663)
Well, there are two problems with comparing stats to last year. One, is that this is a lockout year with a shortened season (lots of different variables compared to a normal season). The second, is that we are not even halfway done with the season, and this is only a small sample size.

Other things to consider is that this is a new team and a new coaching system for Olli, so you would expect some growing pains. However, he has still been consistent in his lack of production even though his previous line mates (Kane & Wheeler) still found ways to score when they were on the ice together. So in my mind, this still does not excuse him for his lack of production. There is only so much you can blame on the team and on luck. Hitting the post may count as a quality scoring chance, but in reality, this doesn't help his production as it is a matter of accuracy rather than luck. All in all, I think it has to do with his lack of chemistry with his line mates more than anything.

Finally, I would like to ask why you think +/- is a bad stat to compare defense? I agree that +/- is a team stat more than anything, but how does that excuse Olli, or any other player for that matter, from failing to produce or defend 5 on 5 hockey?

Yes, the sample size is small, but the differences are quite dramatic in positive fashion, and in all levels, indicating non-randomness (also, don't want to get into it but Corsi/Fenwick substantially increases the sample size where 10-15 games does give a good indication). Albeit, due to sample size I would not make any assumptions yet to the level of difference.

Yes I would expect growing pains due to system. The linemates producing thing I've answered below, but I would like to mention it's been noticed by some that Noel's system seems to reduce production in his centres. I have yet to look really deep into it, but it does seem that the multiposition guys (Antropov, Burmistrov, Wellwood, Little) production rates tend to jump when they are on wing.

Now to answer your question.


Plus/Minus
There is validity to plus/minus but it is a terrible stat used alone without context and without looking into it deeper.

For usage/context: is it better being a slightly negative +/- when all you do is face EStaal, Crosby, Giroux, etc. or being a slightly positive +/- when you're mostly facing 4th line pylons game in and game out?

Another problem is it is very strongly affected by linemates, here's two examples from us.
Quote:

2011-12 Byfuglien with:
PartnerTOI CF% GF% +/-
Enstrom 724 0.558 0.522 +3
Oduya 210 0.524 0.571 +2
Stuart 159 0.489 0.211 -11
Bogosian 41 0.532 0.500 +0
Jones 31 0.339 0.000 -3
Hainsey 27 0.298 0.667 +2
Flood 26 0.533 0.763 +1
2011-12 Bogosian with:
PartnerTOI CF% GF% +/-
Stuart 369 0.466 0.433 -4
Hainsey 272 0.496 0.609 +5
Oduya 247 0.499 0.222 -10
Enstrom 97 0.556 0.667 +3
Byfuglien 41 0.532 0.500 +0
Flood 19 0.536 1.000 +1
Clitsome 15 0.355 0.000 -1
Jones 11 0.217 0.000 -1
Kulda 3 0.583 1.000 +1

The real interesting one is that Byfuglien ended the season being a minus, even though he was rarely a minus with the teammates he spent the most time-on-ice from. Some would say Byfuglien is + with Enstrom/Odya, but - with Stuart because Enstrom is so awesome and Oduya is decent. But, look at how Bogosian is severely minus with Oduya... is Oduya being pulled down by Bogosian but not by Byfuglien?
A side problem comes from this that it isn't relative to TOI. Is Byfuglien's +2 with 210 mins with Oduya (where they outchanced their opponents) equal to his +2 with Hainsey for 27 mins.

And the biggest one is that it's proven that luck can dominate +/-, especially in short seasons.
You stated that Jokinen was not able to score while his linemates have. In fact, that's actually not 100% true. Jokinen's having by far the lowest On-Ice-SH% shows that he's been unlucky enough that his linemates points have came mostly from shots while he's not on the ice, but the teams shot density, the amount of shots, and the quality of shots hasn't changed. Also, SH% has been shown to fluctuate greatly in small samples while possession (Fenwick/Corsi) and shots are more stable predictor of future production.



Question which is easier to believe:
Jokinen is good enough that he is creating better scoring chances, possession and shots than our teams average, and preventing scoring chances, possession and shots than our team average... but bad enough that the points go in on their goalie and do go in on our goalie...
Or, there's some poor luck to it.

Fuelled by Passion 02-21-2013 11:12 PM

Not sure I'm watching same games as all of you who say he is ok. I'm not even talking about this who say he is good. He is absolutely awful. Solid 200 feet hockey? He isn't doing much defensively and not much offensively. Just takes a spot from one of our young players and takes 4.5 mil cap.
16 games 2g 2a -9 (0.25 PPG) 8 gva and 4 tka says it all. Well at least he hits at least once a game

truck 02-21-2013 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuelled by Passion (Post 60225783)
Not sure I'm watching same games as all of you who say he is ok. I'm not even talking about this who say he is good. He is absolutely awful. Solid 200 feet hockey? He isn't doing much defensively and not much offensively. Just takes a spot from one of our young players and takes 4.5 mil cap.
16 games 2g 2a -9 (0.25 PPG) 8 gva and 4 tka says it all. Well at least he hits at least once a game

You make it sound like the Jets have some NHL talent waiting in the wings.

After Scheifele there is nothing at the moment.

tntkid 02-21-2013 11:38 PM

He gets a gold star for effort.

Lynk 02-21-2013 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by truck (Post 60227563)
You make it sound like the Jets have some NHL talent waiting in the wings.

After Scheifele there is nothing at the moment.

Seems to be quite a trend with many players on the roster.

Apparently we have a plethora of talent that's being taken up by overpaid forwards and d-man (;))

garret9 02-22-2013 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lynk (Post 60227885)
Seems to be quite a trend with many players on the roster.

Apparently we have a plethora of talent that's being taken up by overpaid forwards and d-man (;))

Well they are all perfect and awesome...
except one individual Dman (;))


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