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-   -   Some suprising (and not so suprising) Habs player stats. (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1355865)

WakeUpNHL 02-20-2013 06:33 PM

Some suprising (and not so suprising) Habs player stats.
 
Found a stat called PDO, which shows 5vs5 play for teams and individual players in a team. This link shows the Habs players 5on5 play stats so far.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+45+46+63+67#

Interesting to see that Gally and Chucky are way at the top while the Desharnais and Cole are at the bottom. Also, Desharnais' 0.868 on ice Save% is eye popping!

Teufelsdreck 02-20-2013 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60122027)
Found a stat called PDO, which shows 5vs5 play for teams and individual players in a team. This link shows the Habs players 5on5 play stats so far.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+45+46+63+67#

Interesting to see that Gally and Chucky are way at the top while the Desharnais and Cole are at the bottom. Also, Desharnais' 0.868 on ice Save% is eye popping!

Some of those stats are hard to interpret, especially in their effect on wins and losses. One thing sticks out: Ryan White has been a liability and without his unfavorable ratio of penalties taken to penalties drawn the Habs' impressive win-loss record would be even better.

Whitesnake 02-20-2013 07:04 PM

Nevermind.....got it. Will always believe though that as advance those stats are, it's impossible to take one of them and directly act as if it was the bible and that it says it all about a player.

hockeyfan2k11 02-20-2013 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whitesnake (Post 60124651)
Nevermind.....got it. Will always believe though that as advance those stats are, it's impossible to take one of them and directly act as if it was the bible and that it says it all about a player.

This... There's nothing more accurate than the eye test.

Peter Puck 02-20-2013 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60122027)
Found a stat called PDO, which shows 5vs5 play for teams and individual players in a team. This link shows the Habs players 5on5 play stats so far.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+45+46+63+67#

Interesting to see that Gally and Chucky are way at the top while the Desharnais and Cole are at the bottom. Also, Desharnais' 0.868 on ice Save% is eye popping!

This basically means that these guys have been unlucky.

WakeUpNHL 02-20-2013 07:36 PM

Most interesting to me is the 5on5 save percentage stats:

best
White 1.00 (no goals against scored 5on5!)
Diaz 0.966 (highest amongst Dman)

worst
MaxPac 0.891
Desharnais 0.886 (horrible defensively)

WakeUpNHL 02-20-2013 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter Puck (Post 60127821)
This basically means that these guys have been unlucky.

or maybe they are giving up too many quality chances...

FlyingKostitsyn 02-20-2013 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60127919)
Most interesting to me is the 5on5 save percentage stats:

best
White 1.00 (no goals against scored 5on5!)
Diaz 0.966 (highest amongst Dman)

worst
MaxPac 0.891
Desharnais 0.886 (horrible defensively)

It mostly means White&Diaz were lucky while MaxPac and Desharnais were not. Don't read to much into it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL
or maybe they are giving up too many quality chances...

The difference is not notable enough to warrant such a conclusion. Besides who does White and Diaz play against? Who do they play with? How many goals were scored with Desharnais or MaxPac on the ice and were these goals linked in any way with their performances?

As someone else in this thread said its better to use your eyes than statistics.

Bad Natey 02-20-2013 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60128059)
or maybe they are giving up too many quality chances...

Lol no... It's unlucky. Last year, we were terrible, and had 2 guys under .900 on the season. Their on-ice sv% will go up.

MoldyCakes 02-20-2013 07:44 PM

Sheltered minutes are akin to economic bubbles.

sharks9 02-20-2013 07:46 PM

Top 5 from last year in PDO who played at least 40 games:

Louis Leblanc
David Desharnais
P.K. Subban
Josh Gorges
Erik Cole

Talks to Goalposts 02-20-2013 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60127919)
Most interesting to me is the 5on5 save percentage stats:

best
White 1.00 (no goals against scored 5on5!)
Diaz 0.966 (highest amongst Dman)

worst
MaxPac 0.891
Desharnais 0.886 (horrible defensively)

There is probably no element an individual forward has less influence on than the save percentage behind them. Save percentage is typically about team wide systems, goaltender talent and mostly shear random chance than anything else. Over a 14 game sample its likely just random noise and nothing meaningful.

PDO is about the how sustainable a player's goal differential is. If its high like for Galchenyuk you can expect his goal differential to get less impressive, if its low like for Desharnais you can expect them to improve. None of that should be surprising, if Galchenyuk could maintain a 10 for - 3 against ratio every 14 games he'd be the greatest player in the league by a huge amount while if Desharnais was regularly a 5 goals for and 9 against player in the same time he'd get kicked out of the league very quickly. You can expect a player's PDO to approach 1000 as time goes on because its much more a matter of chance than talent (although very good offensive players can beat the mean by small amounts on shooting percentage and teams with exceptionally good or bad goaltending talent will be effected by that).

The important thing to know for these kinds of statistics is that small numbers are more about happenstance than talent. Which is why things like shots are more reliable measures of talent in small samples than goals. Goals are more meaningful events but there haven't been enough of them yet for them to have real statistical meaning.

MXD 02-20-2013 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60128059)
or maybe they are giving up too many quality chances...

In other words, Desharnais was our better defensive player last year?

That news to me.

PDO basically indicates the luck of a player.

Ozymandias 02-20-2013 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prallchengher (Post 60128487)
Sheltered minutes are akin to economic bubbles.

Ha! Now that's a really good comparison.

WakeUpNHL 02-20-2013 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MXD (Post 60130737)
In other words, Desharnais was our better defensive player last year?

That news to me.

PDO basically indicates the luck of a player.

Funny how Gomez was the unluckiest player on the habs for the last two seasons!

Aspirine 02-20-2013 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MXD (Post 60130737)
In other words, Desharnais was our better defensive player last year?

That news to me.

PDO basically indicates the luck of a player.

How about Galchenyuk's 7,4% shooting percentage? Isn't that accountable to "bad luck"? It's bound to go up. How come he is still on top of the list if it indicates the "luck" of a player?

ECWHSWI 02-20-2013 09:14 PM

hope others wil create even more stats so I can stop watching games and follow the website to know who's playing well...

:naughty:

Kjell Dahlin 02-20-2013 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60122027)
Found a stat called PDO, which shows 5vs5 play for teams and individual players in a team. This link shows the Habs players 5on5 play stats so far.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+45+46+63+67#

Interesting to see that Gally and Chucky are way at the top while the Desharnais and Cole are at the bottom. Also, Desharnais' 0.868 on ice Save% is eye popping!

Quote:

Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL (Post 60128059)
or maybe they are giving up too many quality chances...

From behindthenet.ca: “PDO is the sum of "On-Ice Shooting Percentage" and "On-Ice Save Percentage" while a player was on the ice. It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa.”

Also, you should take a minute to read Talks to Goalposts’ post (post #12); I do think that sometimes people do put too much emphasis on micro stats but he/she sure knows his stuff!

So, basically, you underlined the fact that Cole, Desharnais and Pacioretty have been unlucky thus far this season. And we should expect a better production (or better results) from them as the season unfolds.

Talks to Goalposts 02-20-2013 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aspirine (Post 60135839)
How about Galchenyuk's 7,4% shooting percentage? Isn't that accountable to "bad luck"? It's bound to go up. How come he is still on top of the list if it indicates the "luck" of a player?

Because Gallagher has been potting them like mad when they are on the ice together and that's inevitably going to cool off, if for no other reason than they are not the reincarnation of Gretzky-Kurri. They've produced at a far faster rate than Stamkos-St. Louis or Sedin-Sedin over a short period of time, regression is inevitable.

Now Galchenuyk's personal goal scoring rate can be expected to go up based on his 7.4%, but PDO is about 5 on 5 +/-. Essentially, Galchenyuk has been playing better than a 10 goals per 82 games player but not as good as a guy you can expect to go +46 in 82 games.

ECWHSWI 02-20-2013 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts (Post 60138181)
Because Gallagher has been potting them like mad when they are on the ice together and that's inevitably going to cool off, if for no other reason than they are not the reincarnation of Gretzky-Kurri. They've produced at a far faster rate than Stamkos-St. Louis or Sedin-Sedin over a short period of time, regression is inevitable.

Now Galchenuyk's personal goal scoring rate can be expected to go up based on his 7.4%, but PDO is about 5 on 5 +/-. Essentially, Galchenyuk has been playing better than a 10 goals per 82 games player but not as good as a guy you can expect to go +46 in 82 games.

pretty much, doesnt mean any more/less than +/-, prety useless stat IMO (as in, there's already something measuring what this stat is), whole lot of work for nothing ;)

Talks to Goalposts 02-20-2013 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ECWHSWI (Post 60141509)
pretty much, doesnt mean any more/less than +/-, prety useless stat IMO (as in, there's already something measuring what this stat is), whole lot of work for nothing ;)

+/- is useless because its too heavily influenced by randomness and situational factors to be useful. Its also polluted by the stupid way it was constructed, counting PP goals against and PK goals for and also empty net goals.

But at its heart it measures the most important thing in hockey, whether you scored more than your opponent. Which is what causes your team to win games and is the reason why one team is better than the other. Any effective statistical analysis has to deal with the central fact that more goals than the other team causes wins. So the straight +/- that you can find on NHL.com is pretty useless, how a player influences his team's +/- is the crux of their value.

OneSharpMarble 02-20-2013 10:50 PM

Look who is #1! Good thing we don't actually play our best passer anymore, much better idea just letting him sit on the bench and improve his trade value there.

ECWHSWI 02-20-2013 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts (Post 60143227)
+/- is useless because its too heavily influenced by randomness and situational factors to be useful. Its also polluted by the stupid way it was constructed, counting PP goals against and PK goals for and also empty net goals.

But at its heart it measures the most important thing in hockey, whether you scored more than your opponent. Which is what causes your team to win games and is the reason why one team is better than the other. Any effective statistical analysis has to deal with the central fact that more goals than the other team causes wins. So the straight +/- that you can find on NHL.com is pretty useless, how a player influences his team's +/- is the crux of their value.

and most stats dont show that, including the ones on the website posted by the op.

Talks to Goalposts 02-20-2013 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ECWHSWI (Post 60145553)
and most stats dont show that, including the ones on the website posted by the op.

They do if you look at how they interact. PDO isn't so much about that though, its supposed to be the sanity check you put on someone doing extremely bad or good over a short period time. Where you look to see if a player is beating his opponent say, 57-43 in goals to see if its because his line is playing like an elite unit over that time or if they've just been on an unsustainable hot streak. Or used on a team level, the quick and dirty way to check and see how you knowMinnesota and Toronto weren't actually good teams last year but just pretending for a while and that LA was going to bounce back pretty hard.

ECWHSWI 02-20-2013 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts (Post 60147267)
They do if you look at how they interact. PDO isn't so much about that though, its supposed to be the sanity check you put on someone doing extremely bad or good over a short period time. Where you look to see if a player is beating his opponent say, 57-43 in goals to see if its because his line is playing like an elite unit over that time or if they've just been on an unsustainable hot streak. Or used on a team level, the quick and dirty way to check and see how you knowMinnesota and Toronto weren't actually good teams last year but just pretending for a while and that LA was going to bounce back pretty hard.

too much emphasis on stats, not enough on watching games.


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