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-   -   Playoff Chances (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1357493)

scelaton 02-22-2013 11:33 AM

Playoff Chances
 
There has been reference to a recent comment by Noel that we would need to win 2/3 of our remaining games to make the playoffs. Others have suggested that 56+ points would be necessary to secure a spot this season. If either of these were true, I don't think we would realistically have much of a chance. However, looking at today's standings, I see a realistic possibility via the following divisional route:

We have 32 games left, 3 each against Tampa and Carolina and 26 against others.
IF we win 2 of our 3 remaining games against Tampa and Carolina respectively and if we win half our remaining games against other opponents, we could conceivably win the division by winning a mere 53% of our remaining games. This is a best case scenario and is predicated on our divisional rivals continuing their mediocre play. But it does give one at least a glimmer of hope.

This is a very rushed and superficial analysis; I haven't even bothered to take into account 3-point games. There are countless other permutations and combinations, but this seems like the most viable route.

Comments?

cbcwpg 02-22-2013 11:53 AM

JMO, but the only way I honestly see us making the playoffs is to win the division. Given how poorly the whole division seems to be positioned, I think this is our best chance.

KCjetsfan 02-22-2013 12:05 PM

agreed. it's hard to believe SE is going to get two spots this year. Which really means that I'm in no rush for realignment.

cheswick 02-22-2013 12:08 PM

The simpliest way of looking at it is using current winning percentage and extrapolating for the remaining games.

Right now the Rangers occupy the 8th spot with a projected 54 points. The Huricanes have a projected 54.4 point total for first in the division.

So at current paces, 55 points would get the Jets in, or 40 points in their last 32 games (0.625 winning percentage).


This is where i look at my standings. It orders by winning percentage which is more telling that simply looking at points. http://wombat.san-francisco.ca.us/pe...m=nhl&conf=all

knorthern knight 02-22-2013 07:34 PM

Another good site is http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E.../Winnipeg.html

My own version of the standings consists of tracking PMGP (Points Minus Games Played). "Winning percentage" doesn't quite mean what it means in baseball, because 3-pointers bulk up the stats. Here's what I have...

TEAMPMGP
Boston8
New Jersey7
Montreal7
Pittsburgh6
Toronto4
Ottawa4
Carolina2
NY Rangers2
Tampa Bay1
Winnipeg-1
Philadelphia-2
NY Islanders-2
Florida-3
Buffalo-5
Washington-5

knorthern knight 02-22-2013 08:36 PM

Pittsburgh beat Florida 3-1 tonight, which helps us in our division.

Bob E 02-22-2013 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbcwpg (Post 60248591)
JMO, but the only way I honestly see us making the playoffs is to win the division. Given how poorly the whole division seems to be positioned, I think this is our best chance.

Agreed. There likely is a better chance at finishing first in the SE, than battling for a 7th or 8th spot.

scelaton 03-23-2013 11:45 AM

Thought I'd dredge up this thread 1 month after I initially posted it, to monitor our progress. I haven't had time to watch the past 2 games, so maybe (just maybe) I can be more objective.
The Jets have played well, winning >50% and find themselves first in the Div. It is to be expected that a 50% team would have some consecutive losses, so the world isn't ending.
Nothing has changed for the worse in the past month other than Tampa becoming weaker. We're still approaching the critical best of 3 'pre-playoff series' with Carolina. If we win 2 of those and stay at >50% in our other remaining games (i.e., 7/13 or better), we should win the division.

Turbofan 03-23-2013 12:00 PM

According to sportsclubstats, (cool site btw) it's sitting squarely at 49.7% after last night's game. Prior to these two Caps games it was at 67%.

Stej 03-23-2013 12:46 PM

It seems like it's really going to come down to us against Carolina.

To put things in perspective, if we go a very pedestrian 8-8-0 over the final 16, one of the following would have to happen for us to be caught by the other 3 teams in the Southeast division:
  • Washington would have to go 11-6-0 or better
  • Tampa Bay would have to go 12-6-0 or better
  • Florida would have to go 13-3-1 or better

That is certainly possible for Washington or Tampa, but not very likely at all IMO. And hopefully we play better than 8-8-0!

With 3 games left against Carolina and a decent remaining schedule otherwise, the Jets really do hold their fate in their own hands.

garret9 03-23-2013 11:35 PM

Here's nhlnumbers attempt to make a predictive model. It essentially uses combination of what models use now (future games, current standings, points, etc) and it also adds in advance statistics:
http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/3/17/nhl-...lues-canadiens

Western Conference EasternConference
Place Team Place Team
1 Chicago Blackhawks 1 Boston Bruins
2 Anaheim Ducks 2 Pittsburgh Penguins
3 Vancouver Canucks 3 Carolina Hurricanes
4 St. Louis Blues 4 Montreal Canadiens
5 Los Angeles Kings 5 Ottawa Senators
6 Minnesota Wild 6 New Jersey Devils
7 San Jose Sharks 7 Winnipeg Jets
8 Detroit Red Wings 8 New York Rangers
17 Toronto Maple Leafs
18 Phoenix Coyotes
19 New York Islanders
20 Dallas Stars
21 Calgary Flames
22 Nashville Predators
23 Philadelphia Flyers
24 Edmonton Oilers
25 Columbus Blue Jackets
26 Tampa Bay Lightning
27 Colorado Avalanche
28 Washington Capitals
29 Florida Panthers
30 Buffalo Sabres

PS the data is as of Mar 17

scelaton 04-02-2013 09:08 PM

Despite their 4 game losing streak, the chances of a Divisional win are still intact. But now the Jets must win their one remaining game against each of Carolina and Washington, and at least half of the other 8 games (ie, 6/10 total).
No need to give up hope yet...their chances are no worse than when this thread was started almost 6 weeks ago, thanks to the ineptitude of the other SE teams.

allan5oh 04-02-2013 09:13 PM

The problem is how many of our SE opponents play each other, like tonight for example? That has to be taken into consideration.

Turbofan 04-02-2013 09:32 PM

Yup plenty of great sites out there that do the math for you and ease your mind (and cause you endless grief).

sting13 04-02-2013 09:39 PM

Watch out for the Caps, they have a heavy home schedule left.

mzappa 04-02-2013 10:07 PM

Newsflash - chances aren't good unless we start winning. As in, starting yesterday.

Right now, is anyone confident we will go 7-3 with wins (in regulation) over the Caps and Canes?

When pigs fly!


mzappa 04-02-2013 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wings (Post 63094279)
Yup plenty of great sites out there that do the math for you and ease your mind (and cause you endless grief).

Yes you can truly ruin your life on those stats sites. Well, at least its better than real gambling, right? :sarcasm:

bazaaa* 04-02-2013 10:23 PM

6-4 only gives us a 61% chance, and I don't even see us going 6-4. Said a week ago I was more worried about Wash than Carolina, and here they come. Just tank and get the high pick.

Gnova 04-02-2013 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mzappa (Post 63097633)
Newsflash - chances aren't good unless we start winning. As in, starting yesterday.

Right now, is anyone confident we will go 7-3 with wins (in regulation) over the Caps and Canes?

When pigs fly!


It is as realistic as thinking that either the Canes or the Caps can finish up e season with that kind of record.

Winnipeg Jets 04-03-2013 10:17 AM

http://nhlplayoffscheer.herokuapp.com/?team=WPG

cheswick 04-03-2013 10:34 AM

I honestly don't quite udnerstand the doom and gloom after yesterdays games. As if the playoffs were pretty much impossible now. The Jets and the Capitals are both playing 0.500 hockey on the season. The Huricanes are under 0.500. The Jets making the playoffs is still a very realistic goal.

winterpeg 04-03-2013 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheswick (Post 63127545)
I honestly don't quite udnerstand the doom and gloom after yesterdays games. As if the playoffs were pretty much impossible now. The Jets and the Capitals are both playing 0.500 hockey on the season. The Huricanes are under 0.500. The Jets making the playoffs is still a very realistic goal.

If we're 1 or 2 games better than the caps coming home, we're in. It's a bloody shame we blew that back to back against them. If we'd won those games, we'd be all but a lock for the division at this point.

Donald 04-03-2013 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheswick (Post 63127545)
I honestly don't quite udnerstand the doom and gloom after yesterdays games. As if the playoffs were pretty much impossible now. The Jets and the Capitals are both playing 0.500 hockey on the season. The Huricanes are under 0.500. The Jets making the playoffs is still a very realistic goal.

I think it's because of how spectacularly bad they looked in losing. It's almost as if the bigger the game, the flatter they come out.

cheswick 04-03-2013 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winterpeg (Post 63128119)
If we're 1 or 2 games better than the caps coming home, we're in. It's a bloody shame we blew that back to back against them. If we'd won those games, we'd be all but a lock for the division at this point.

That's exactly it. We have to outplay two very mediocre teams. And we play them each once. Yeah we've been playing bad lately, but there was a stretch were we played good. Outside of 2 games against montreal, every game we have left is agaisnt teams that are 8th or worse. Lets hope we can reclaim some home ice magic, get stellar goaltending performances and then we'll be in.

NSHPreds1835 04-03-2013 11:08 AM

I'm sure many of you are feeling like Jim Mora.



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