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-   -   Odds of a 2010 Type Playoff Run (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1370737)

hckyplayer8 03-08-2013 10:10 AM

Odds of a 2010 Type Playoff Run
 
This feels a whole lot like it. Consistent mediocre play as we struggle to gain footing through injuries.

Ill go with chances of a similar type post season run at 55/45 currently.

Get McGin and Mez back would def. add some spark to the team. Fire Lavi if a decent replacement comes available. Lastly and always a wild card is if the BUM decides to become Bryz at the right time.

BillDineen 03-08-2013 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hckyplayer8 (Post 61240701)
This feels a whole lot like it. Consistent mediocre play as we struggle to gain footing through injuries.

Ill go with chances of a similar type post season run at 55/45 currently.

Get McGin and Mez back would def. add some spark to the team. Fire Lavi if a decent replacement comes available. Lastly and always a wild card is if the BUM decides to become Bryz at the right time.

Flyers did have Pronger then though. I view it as low odds.

Hollywood Couturier 03-08-2013 10:33 AM

Flyers currently have 35/1 odds to win the Stanley Cup and 16/1 to win the EC. Those numbers are way too low, the odds should be much worse IMO.

JDinkalage Morgoone 03-08-2013 10:37 AM

It's absolutely possible, however the way this team has been playing.... blech.

FlyingPhilly 03-08-2013 10:40 AM

Mathematically, yes it can happen. Realistically, with the way the team is playing and the circumstances, very very slim chance.

JDinkalage Morgoone 03-08-2013 10:44 AM

For them to make a run they need to show that they can beat teams that aren't terrible. They've shown that how many times this year? If they beat the Bruins on Saturday, I have a gleam of hope.

Jtown 03-08-2013 10:46 AM

in order for them to make the playoffs they are going to have to get hot, if they get hot going into the playoffs then there is a chance. God im such a sucker.

hckyplayer8 03-08-2013 10:52 AM

The replies have been better than I thought.

I seriously think we are a dark horse and are better than we are playing.

Hell if Giroux can get a little luck and shake off the funk that seems to be hanging over his head this season, he alone can be a huge difference maker.

blinds 03-08-2013 11:01 AM

Ehh, as much as I'd like to hope I don't think there's a real chance. It's possible we sneak in the playoffs, but we aren't going far. Teams have us figured out the same way NJ did last year. No ones stepping up other than Voracek and Simmonds. G is average. Briere is horrible. B. Schenn seems to be regressing, L. Schenn is making awful decisions like Toronto fans warned. Hartnell isn't playing up to par. Our 3rd and 4th lines are offensive blackholes. Timonen's age is showing. Coburn is making terrible decisions (he's a -9 vs Grossmann's +1). And Bryz hasn't had a great game since January.

So many people are struggling, I don't see them picking it up enough to do much of anything. And even if they did, knowing Bryz he'd **** the bed when everyone else starts going. That's how he works isn't it, plays good when the team is bad and plays bad when the team is good?

DrHamburg 03-08-2013 11:07 AM

Of course anything is possible. You would need Hartnell-Girioux-Vora to be a a top line. If Read-Schenn-Simmonds plays the way they are capable of playing. 4th line would have to stay consistent, give quality minutes and not take penalties. You would need to have Couts play a complete shutdown role, and Briere to become super playoff hero.

You would need Bryz to be in elite goaltender mode and the defense to not make bad players. They are good and physical enough to make teams not want to play them over a 7 game series. Is it possible? Sure, but its going to take a whole lot of ifs.

YuioIklo 03-08-2013 11:13 AM

There are some similarities, but this type of miracle doesn't happen very often. I think that if we make it to the playoffs, this team will be so motivated (and they'll obviously be on a good streak, otherwise they won't make it) that they'll make a good run.

chimrichalds18 03-08-2013 11:13 AM

That roster was better. Didn't have the 5-6 depth on D -- and as we know, the goaltending was a carousel -- but the 2010 team was a better team from a player standpoint. This 2013 team still needs to grow up some.

bennysflyers16 03-08-2013 11:14 AM

Could sneak in and face a MTL 1st round and get on a tear, but the run that is needed to just get in is going to be real tough .

YuioIklo 03-08-2013 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chimrichalds18 (Post 61243865)
That roster was better. Didn't have the 5-6 depth on D -- and as we know, the goaltending was a carousel -- but the 2010 team was a better team from a player standpoint. This 2013 team still needs to grow up some.

Offensively, 2013 > 2010 imo. Defensively, it's another story. We had great defensive forwards and an elite top 4 D, even though our third pairing was Parent-Krajicek iirc.

blinds 03-08-2013 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YuioIklo (Post 61244041)
Offensively, 2013 > 2010 imo. Defensively, it's another story. We had great defensive forwards and an elite top 4 D, even though our third pairing was Parent-Krajicek iirc.

I agree, but with a caveat on the offense. In that run we had Richards, Carter, Gagne and Briere at their prime playing some of their best hockey, with a young Giroux stepping up enormously. This offense is still extremely young and is going to be streaky. I'm not sure they can reliably produce, 2 bad games in a row might shake their confidence enough to end a playoff run.

Otherwise, our defense has obviously regressed since then with no Pronger and an aging Timonen.

Our goalie situation.. is better.. but knowing Bryz you can't expect consistency. We got lucky then with Leighton playing exceptionally against Montreal and Boston. But then we all know what happened in game 6. I wouldn't put a goal like Kane's OT winner past Bryz, he lets in those deflating, soft goals.

Victory5 03-08-2013 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hckyplayer8 (Post 61240701)
This feels a whole lot like it. Consistent mediocre play as we struggle to gain footing through injuries.

Ill go with chances of a similar type post season run at 55/45 currently.

Get McGin and Mez back would def. add some spark to the team. Fire Lavi if a decent replacement comes available. Lastly and always a wild card is if the BUM decides to become Bryz at the right time.


If Lavi is fired


Then maybe


But beyond that, this team has gaping holes. We lack a #1 dman (bad luck via pronger and the fact that we couldnt get Weber), and we lack a consistent goalie. Combine the two and it doesnt matter who the forwards are, were not gonna win.

Beef Invictus 03-08-2013 12:01 PM

Anything is possible. Well, probably not this.

Victory5 03-08-2013 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blinds (Post 61244589)
I agree, but with a caveat on the offense. In that run we had Richards, Carter, Gagne and Briere at their prime playing some of their best hockey, with a young Giroux stepping up enormously. This offense is still extremely young and is going to be streaky. I'm not sure they can reliably produce, 2 bad games in a row might shake their confidence enough to end a playoff run.

Otherwise, our defense has obviously regressed since then with no Pronger and an aging Timonen.

Our goalie situation.. is better.. but knowing Bryz you can't expect consistency. We got lucky then with Leighton playing exceptionally against Montreal and Boston. But then we all know what happened in game 6. I wouldn't put a goal like Kane's OT winner past Bryz, he lets in those deflating, soft goals.


Bryz would have saved Kane's shot......but let out a rebound to the middle of the slot where a blackhawk would have put it past bryzgolav's pathetic poke check for the GWG

zarley zelepukin 03-08-2013 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blinds (Post 61244589)
I agree, but with a caveat on the offense. In that run we had Richards, Carter, Gagne and Briere at their prime playing some of their best hockey, with a young Giroux stepping up enormously. This offense is still extremely young and is going to be streaky. I'm not sure they can reliably produce, 2 bad games in a row might shake their confidence enough to end a playoff run.

Otherwise, our defense has obviously regressed since then with no Pronger and an aging Timonen.

Our goalie situation.. is better.. but knowing Bryz you can't expect consistency. We got lucky then with Leighton playing exceptionally against Montreal and Boston. But then we all know what happened in game 6. I wouldn't put a goal like Kane's OT winner past Bryz, he lets in those deflating, soft goals.

I think after the 2010 team got Leino and put him with Hartnell and Briere they were probably better offensively too. Deeper anyway.

I guess anything is possible. They could get hot and find the right combination for winning. I wouldn't count on it though. I think there are too many teams that are legitimately better than us.

Teezax 03-08-2013 12:28 PM

Unless we play the isles and canes 20 or so more times, it ain't happening. i have zero confidence against any other team in the East right now. Those 2 are the teams we have had success against in years past.

BWAVgal 03-08-2013 12:31 PM

Nope, they are done.

DrinkFightFlyers 03-08-2013 12:37 PM

All it takes is to get in. If they get in, anything can happen. Problem is I don't see them getting in at this point. They are only a couple points out of the 8th spot, but with so many games in hand for the rest of the league, they are a little further back than the points alone suffest.

WeekendAtBernies 03-08-2013 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hckyplayer8 (Post 61240701)
This feels a whole lot like it. Consistent mediocre play as we struggle to gain footing through injuries.

Ill go with chances of a similar type post season run at 55/45 currently.

Get McGin and Mez back would def. add some spark to the team. Fire Lavi if a decent replacement comes available. Lastly and always a wild card is if the BUM decides to become Bryz at the right time.

You're asking for our odds of making a playoff run? Under 20%. Right around 15% IMO.

Actually, here's an odds calculator that agrees w/ me: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...ladelphia.html

Yukon Cornelius 03-08-2013 01:18 PM

Single digits. The absence of Chris Pronger is where the discussion begins and ends.

CanadianFlyer88 03-08-2013 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers (Post 61249755)
All it takes is to get in. If they get in, anything can happen. Problem is I don't see them getting in at this point. They are only a couple points out of the 8th spot, but with so many games in hand for the rest of the league, they are a little further back than the points alone suffest.

8th place (New York) is three points up on the Flyers with three games in hand. The Flyers need to pray that Ottawa actually struggles due to their injury problems and teams like New York, New Jersey, Winnipeg and Tampa all struggle to close out the season.

It's really not looking good. 16 wins in 23 games is the target to get into the playoffs.


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