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-   -   Lets do some math. (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1372237)

krapsik 03-10-2013 08:51 AM

Lets do some math.
 
55 points must guarantee place in PO.

So Ottawa need to make 12-10-1 record in remaining 23 games.

Lets look at standings:

9. Jets 15-9
10. NYI 15-8
11. PHI 15-5-2
12. Caps 17-8
13. Tampa 17-6
14. Sabres 17-6
15. Panthers 17-5-1

So Panthers, Sabres, Tampa and Philly are 99% out. If Caps loose today agains Rangers, i think they out too.
Its only Jets and Islanders remaining in the run for PO spot. They play today too on the road agains Devils and Pitts.
I think we can make PO with less than 55 points. Something like 52. 11-12 record. What you think ?

P.S Lets GO Rangers, Pitts and Devils !!!

Caeldan 03-10-2013 08:53 AM

I have been looking at 56 points as the unofficial clinch number since the start of the season.

If you go back through the seasons since the previous lockout, a .560 point percentage is what was required for the large majority, regardless of conference.

BonkTastic 03-10-2013 09:25 AM

I read the title of this thread as "Let's do some meth".

You guys made me put on my "infractions gloves" for nothing... NOTHING!!!

La Flame 03-10-2013 10:16 AM

That seems like an attainable record.

Indrew 03-10-2013 10:20 AM

Just bookmark this ****:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Ottawa.html

No math required. It's the weekend man.

Fenix Rises 2026 03-10-2013 10:23 AM

There's always one team that bum rushes the conference late in the season.

Fenix Rises 2026 03-10-2013 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy on the Road (Post 61361677)
Just bookmark this ****:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Ottawa.html

No math required. It's the weekend man.

I'm not a huge fan of this website. It doesn't take into account that the odds change when teams are fighting for their lives, so the predictions get really bad near the end of a season.

Curtinho 03-10-2013 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fenix Rises 2026 (Post 61361739)
There's always one team that bum rushes the conference late in the season.

There's also usually a team that craps the bed near the end of the season, too (New Jersey).

Back In Black 03-11-2013 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cujomi (Post 61362301)
there's also usually a team that craps the bed near the end of the season, too (new jersey).

Toronto Make Beleives!

Spire2000 03-11-2013 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy on the Road (Post 61361677)
Just bookmark this ****:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Ottawa.html

No math required. It's the weekend man.

Very interesting site. Takes a few minutes to wrap your head around what you are looking at but quite neat.

According to them, today, the Sens:

- have an 88.8% of making the playoffs
- need to go 13-8-2 for a 100% chance of making it
- need to go 10-10-3 for a 77.1% chance
- Looks likely to play either Montreal or Caroline in the first round

SenzZen 03-11-2013 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujomi (Post 61362301)
There's also usually a team that craps the bed near the end of the season, too (New Jersey).

Just curious why you threw NJ in there.

Are they your prediction to fall off? Because they've actually been very good at the end of the season in the past few years, and wouldn't be an example of what you described.

EdSoxFan 03-11-2013 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indy on the Road (Post 61361677)
Just bookmark this ****:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...st/Ottawa.html

No math required. It's the weekend man.

Thanks for the link! While not perfect, it's definitely a good reference!

Do Make Say Think 03-11-2013 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenzZen (Post 61439329)
Just curious why you threw NJ in there.

Are they your prediction to fall off? Because they've actually been very good at the end of the season in the past few years, and wouldn't be an example of what you described.

I haven't been keeping with other teams as much this year

Last I heard they were doing poorly since Brodeur was injured

Mercurial 03-11-2013 01:36 PM

I think 54 points probably be enough, that's 92 points in a full season. Maybe a little higher I suppose with more 3 point in conference games.

10-8-5 may be enough to get us in.

danishh 03-11-2013 01:50 PM

I've been using sports club stats for years. It's not perfect but I find that by the trade deadline they normally get seven or all eight teams right.

Step 03-11-2013 02:00 PM

Still looking at the standings. I'm sure it's been mentioned but it's been bugging me all year. Anybody know why Boston is always 3-games back from everybody in terms of Games Played? They have the circus in town or something?

MiscBrah 03-11-2013 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Step (Post 61442967)
Still looking at the standings. I'm sure it's been mentioned but it's been bugging me all year. Anybody know why Boston is always 3-games back from everybody in terms of Games Played? They have the circus in town or something?

Lots of events and other teams playing at the garden a scheduling issue. They also lost a game because of a snowstorm. Their schedule sucks for the rest of the season.

I've been saying this for awhile OP. The sens have put themselves in a great position to enter the post season. Barring a 10 game losing steak they will be in the playoffs.

McManked 03-11-2013 03:28 PM

I've always loved sports club stats near the end of the season to see how likely you are playing different teams.

The big thing is that the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 92.6% chance of making the playoffs. They really need to blow it to miss out. I'm actually excited about that.

The Chicago Blackhawks have a >70% chance of making the playoffs EVEN if they go 4-17-1. That's pretty amazing.

Curtinho 03-11-2013 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenzZen (Post 61439329)
Just curious why you threw NJ in there.

Are they your prediction to fall off? Because they've actually been very good at the end of the season in the past few years, and wouldn't be an example of what you described.

Yeah sorry I should have been more clear. I think they rode a hot start to the season but are actually a pretty poor team and losing Brodeur is going to make it that much tougher. I think if any team falls out of the playoffs that is in right now it will be them.

What would really be awesome is if somehow Ottawa and Toronto could end 4 and 5. Obviously not really realistic with how Montreal and Boston are playing, but meh.

McManked 03-11-2013 03:37 PM

I never understood how the Devils did so well last year.

You could call this a bold prediction, but I honestly think that they will be a bottom feeder in the NHL for years to come. And yes, I know they have Lou.

2CHAINZ 03-11-2013 03:37 PM

1+1 = 2Chainz










2CHHHAAIIINNNZZZ

danishh 03-11-2013 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manked (Post 61448045)
I never understood how the Devils did so well last year.

You could call this a bold prediction, but I honestly think that they will be a bottom feeder in the NHL for years to come. And yes, I know they have Lou.

they were a bit of an enigma. Really overperformed their base metrics. A team with the special teams and goal differentials that they had last year would not be expected to make the playoffs.

SenzZen 03-11-2013 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujomi (Post 61447881)
Yeah sorry I should have been more clear. I think they rode a hot start to the season but are actually a pretty poor team and losing Brodeur is going to make it that much tougher. I think if any team falls out of the playoffs that is in right now it will be them.

What would really be awesome is if somehow Ottawa and Toronto could end 4 and 5. Obviously not really realistic with how Montreal and Boston are playing, but meh.

NP. Figured that was the case since I remember them rolling into the playoffs a couple of times. Should be interesting if the Rangers can figure themselves out, and if Philly can get any type of defensive play going.

I find it hard to believe the Leafs got their 1st Leaf-point of the year in their last game.:amazed:

Neil Patrick Harris 03-11-2013 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manked (Post 61447601)
I've always loved sports club stats near the end of the season to see how likely you are playing different teams.

The big thing is that the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 92.6% chance of making the playoffs. They really need to blow it to miss out. I'm actually excited about that.

The Chicago Blackhawks have a >70% chance of making the playoffs EVEN if they go 4-17-1. That's pretty amazing.

I hear that. I'd love to see us draw Toronto in round one (As long as we win).

saskriders 03-11-2013 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil Patrick Harris (Post 61450341)
I hear that. I'd love to see us draw Toronto in round one (As long as we win).

Then Leaf fans wouldn't shut up about the 4 times they beat us in the playoffs




(10 years ago)


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