Playoffs Thread - 8 games remaining (WE WANT PLAYOFFS!!!!)
I know its just speculation but Just wondering what the islanders record would in the last 16 games be to make the playoffs im going to say 10-4-2
Rangers and Carolina are on pace for 51 points, so assuming that the 8th seed continues on that pace, the Isles will need 52 to secure a playoff spot. They're currently at 31 points, which means 21 over the final 16, which equates to something like 10-5-1.
That's assuming the Rangers or Hurricanes don't actually pick up their play. Typically you'd expect the 8th seed to finish with around 90 points in a 82-game schedule, which prorates to 53 points in 48 games. In that situation, the Isles would need 23 points in 16 games, or 11-4-1.
Carolina/Washington/Winnipeg may beat each other up enough that only one of them gets in, that could mean we're fighting the Rangers/Devils...I'm not sure Buffalo or Philly are ever finding it this year. The Leafs to me are still major pretenders, they could easily collapse and slip out of there although with only 16-17 games left that may be tough, they're easily one of the worst teams on paper I think I have ever seen in the top 8 this far into a season
The point system really misleads, doesn't it. I mean, it appears the Isles are just TWO points out of a playoff spot, which is ONE WIN, and so many games to go. Sounds like a bounce here or there and they're IN!
Yet, they are only 4 points away from picking 3rd overall.
The extra points from OT/SO (like WASH-NYR tonight) makes it impossible to gain ground.
I'm thinking 11-4-1 would guarantee a spot but that seems completely in-achievable for this Islanders team. They can't close out games, they are terrible 5on5 (especially their top line) and have FAILED to play their best hockey when faced with BIG GAMES (they're all big, but some are bigger than others!)
Plus, they're healthy. Not like they can really get any better (like the Leafs getting Lupul back)
Plus, Snow will do NOTHING to help. (Like Morrow for Morrow - which will be a complete STEAL for the Pens)
Hamonic and MacDonald have been very inconsistent YET the team relies on the so heavily.
Doesn't help that Tavares has been invisible of late. Not enough PP time playing along side the two pillows makes the three of them largely ineffective. Their best players have been Okposo, Bailey, Cizikas and a few others.
And they are, as a team (except for a few like Cizikas, Martin, McDonald, Tavares, Hamonic), soft. Far too soft for the down-the-stretch intensity that will arise.
So I'm not optimistic.
But who knows.....maybe the sign Anders Lee, and Joensuu finally gets in the lineup and those two giants start contributing (more than Reasoner, Aucoin, Boulton, anyway) and then Strome (after two more losses) has a Krieder-like impact down the stretch. Stranger things have happened.
Just in case, Snow should sign Dubielewicz!
Reimer's playing really well.
Kadri is for real.
JVR and Kadri give them an extra scoring dimension and they have cap room to add (and they aren't cheap).
Carlyle has these guys committed to team defense.
Their fourth line is a disaster on paper, but they work hard, hit hard, seem to be able to generate offense and sustain pressure in the offensive zone - not unlike Cizikas - McDonald - Martin.
Shocker: McClement - Orr - MacLaren have ONE fewer goal than Nielsen - Okposo - Bailey.
And Franson is playing great. Phaneuf/Kessel, for all the grief they get in the media, have been very solid this year.
This is a very good team. They are built for the playoffs.
They've got balance up front, they're physical, and while they're not an all-star defense corps, they're certainly solid 1 through 6. And finally Reimer and Scrivens are giving them solid goaltending.
JVR - Bozak - Kessel
Lupul - Kadri - Frattin
Kulemin - Grabovski - MacArthur
McLaren/Komorov - McClement - Orr
Phaneuf - Gunnarsson
Fraser - Franson
Liles - Gardiner
I honestly don't know how you can consider that a weak roster on paper. The only area they had a question mark coming into the season was in goal, but both Scrivens and Reimer have played very well this season.
I will add the remaining games to help this out.
Tue, Mar 26 @ Washington 7:00 PM W
Thu, Mar 28 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM W
Sat, Mar 30 @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM L
Mon, Apr 1 @ New Jersey 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 2 vs Winnipeg 7:00 PM
Thu, Apr 4 @ Washington 7:00 PM
Sat, Apr 6 vs Tampa Bay 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 9 vs Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Thu, Apr 11 @ Boston 7:00 PM
Sat, Apr 13 vs NY Rangers 7:00 PM
Tue, Apr 16 vs Florida 7:00 PM
Thu, Apr 18 @ Toronto 7:00 PM
Sat, Apr 20 @ Winnipeg 3:00 PM
Tue, Apr 23 @ Carolina 7:00 PM
Thu, Apr 25 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Fri, Apr 26 @ Buffalo 7:00 PM
16 game breakdown:
Our Division = 6
Conference = 10
If we can go 10-4-2 would get us to 53 points but the 4 losses and 2 OT losses would have to be against..
Boston,Pittsburgh,Winnipeg X2,Florida, and Tampa.
We are not Catching Pitts or Boston
Winnipeg we can lose because that would help them win the division (this could change)
Florida and Tampa are most likely not going to be in the race.
We also cant afford many if any 3 point games against the other 12 opponents.
We must beat the Devils,Rangers, and Carolina in Regulation.
I also understand this is as of today and things can change really quickly.
It is a whole lot to hope for.
They are quality. I wouldnt say they are "stacked". They will struggle to win a playoff series this year, unless they are fortunate enough to play against the 3 seed. I think the better play of the Leafs is attributed to Carlye then anything (esp the goalies). He is a tough/defensive coach. Defensive hockey teams do well in the NHL.
The Islanders should take notes. We try to play so wide open and that really isnt a reciepe for success...or at least goes against my philosophy.
Edit: Esp for low budget teams.
I think we will have to be somewhere around 10-6 to 12-4 (with OT loses mixed in somehow). When you look at the last 7 games of the schedule, that's gonna be where they make it or not. NYR, Florida, Tor, Winn, Car, Phili, Buff....All these teams are right around us in the standings. Should be interesting but IMO have to atleast tread water for the next 8-9 games and have a hot streak the last 7 games to make it in.
I know the 8th place Rangers are on pace for only 51 pts but I think one or more of the teams between 8-12 will get very hot.. the 7th place Devils are on pace for 54pts. Therefore, I think that it will take at least 53 pts and maybe 54 pts (which we were saying was the pace only a week ago) is what it will take so I am thinking a minimum of 10-4-2 or 10-3-3, a herculean task from our inconsistant heroes.
Guaranteed 90% - 100% loss - Pitts, Boston, Philly, Toronto: 6
75% Chance Loss - Peg - 1
50%/50% - Tampa, Canes, Wash, Devs, Rags - 7
Better win or take the paper bags out - Buffalo, Florida - 2
Boston and Pittsburgh I won't even bother mentioning. Philly and Toronto are playing physically above our head which as we well know with this bunch of Marys is an automatic loss.
Winnipeg is playing better lately, and they always seem to play bigger physically than us, but I wouldn't call them Philly or Boston big so 75% likely loss.
The 50% club should probably read the 60% likely loss club because these are the teams our club chokes on in important games. However, they too have choked this season, so I figure even chances for a win.
The other two shouldn't be a problem. My heart says wins, but my brain says we split because of the choke factor, and the bad coaching factor.
When I sum that up I get 5-8-3 for 13 points.
The other bad thing, those three teams have lots of games left with Tampa and Florida, two of the worst teams out there. And unless Carolina gets a goalie back soon, you are looking at Washington having 5 games against Tampa/Florida/Carolina that should all be easy wins.
I think tomorrow night is pretty much a win or sell game. With us playing Washington, Buffalo with a winnable game against TB, and the Rangers at Philly, we could very easily go from 10th place 2 points back to 12th place and 4 points back. At that point, I think there are just too many teams in front of us.
In any case, between now and the deadline we have games @ Wash, Philly, Pitt, NJ and a home game with Winnipeg. If we get 6 or 7 points in that run the team probably deserves for Garth to keep it together for a playoff run. If we lose 3+ of the games, we will probably find ourselves 6+ points back with a bunch of teams in front of us and in position to sell.
We need 20 points in our final 16 games to have a legit chance.
The good thing is that almost half of those games are against teams were battling for position with (WAS, WPG, CAR, NYR, NJ). So we do control a good deal of our own destiny in that regard.
If we can take half of the games we have left with teams like PHI and TOR, who we traditionally play poorly against, it will go a long way in helping us as well.
Outside of the 2 games against BOS and PIT, I'd say the rest of them are winnable.
I reckon they'll need to win at least 10 of those games maybe and picking up a few loser points along the way too. Some team is just bound to go on a winning streak so .500 won't do it
In any case, I just can't ever agree with the notion that the Leafs, on paper, are a weak club. They're too deep for that description to apply to them, IMO.
Recently mentioned in another thread: No less than 10 victories would be necessary, and even that might not cut it.
Hope Snow is planning accordingly heading into next Wednesday.
@Phili - L
@ Pitt - L
@ NJ - W
vs Winnipeg - OT L
@ Washington - OT L
vs Tampa - W
vs Phili - W
@Boston - L
vs Rags - W
vs Florida - W
@ Tor - L
@ Winnipeg - W
@ Car - W
@ Phili - OT L
@ Buffalo - W
That to me seems pretty realistic. 9-4-3 = 21 points....Will that get it done?
22 points. Whatever combination it takes to get 22 points.
10-5-1 will be enough. Finishing the season 4 games above .500 at 52 pts will be sufficient. I think we can do even better than that, but it is a realistic goal
I'll play the W/L/OTL game. Was in Philly last weekend for the NCAAs, glad I didn't pay attention to the Pens collapse. Woohoo they beat Florida, yippee skippy.
Tue, Mar 26 @ Washington 7:00 PM OTL (They never play well in DC)
Thu, Mar 28 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM L (They never play well in Philly)
Sat, Mar 30 @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM L (They never play well in Pittsburgh)
Mon, Apr 1 @ New Jersey 7:00 PM W (Got to give them a win here)
Tue, Apr 2 vs Winnipeg 7:00 PM W (Two in a Row)
Thu, Apr 4 @ Washington 7:00 PM L (See above)
Sat, Apr 6 vs Tampa Bay 7:00 PM W
Tue, Apr 9 vs Philadelphia 7:00 PM L
Thu, Apr 11 @ Boston 7:00 PM L (Bleep No)
Sat, Apr 13 vs NY Rangers 7:00 PM OTL
Tue, Apr 16 vs Florida 7:00 PM W
Thu, Apr 18 @ Toronto 7:00 PM W
Sat, Apr 20 @ Winnipeg 3:00 PM L
Tue, Apr 23 @ Carolina 7:00 PM W
Thu, Apr 25 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM L
Fri, Apr 26 @ Buffalo 7:00 PM W
My Tally: 7-7-2 16pts = 21-22-5 47pts... Hello Lottery for the WHAT sixth straight year, Woohoo!!!:shakehead
We're winning our next 32 games.
I have what might be called a stupid question, but I've racked my brain and can't figure it out. I was looking at the standings and one of the columns is ROW--what does that stand for?
Regulation + Overtime wins
It's basically total number of wins minus shootout wins. I think this is the first year that this will be the first tiebreaker for playoff seeding.
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