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Ozymandias 03-30-2013 10:09 PM

Official magic number thread
 
Magic number is now 8 with 11 games left to play for the Habs.

A few weeks ago, it was 38 with 24 games left to play.


Anyone can guess at which game Habs are gonna clinch their playoff berth?

EDIT: corrected. TY Marc

Dekar 03-30-2013 10:21 PM

We clinch on April 18th against Tampa.

Marc the Habs Fan 03-30-2013 10:24 PM

I believe it's actually 14 points.

CAR's max is 64 points. WPG's max is 62 points. NYI's max is 61 points.

So for magic number purposes, CAR is leading their division and WPG is the team we count as the magic number team.

So we need 63 points to beat WPG's 62. We have 49 now. 14 points is the magic number.

Alexdaman 03-30-2013 10:33 PM

Either vs Tampa or WSH, I would be eccstatic to see us get it vs Pittsbrugh.

Steve Shutt 03-30-2013 10:57 PM

3 more points pretty much gets us in according to this: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E.../Montreal.html

Corncob 04-01-2013 04:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan (Post 62820799)
I believe it's actually 14 points.

CAR's max is 64 points. WPG's max is 62 points. NYI's max is 61 points.

So for magic number purposes, CAR is leading their division and WPG is the team we count as the magic number team.

So we need 63 points to beat WPG's 62. We have 49 now. 14 points is the magic number.

Never really get how these things work. It's not possible for Carolina to finish with 64 points and Winnipeg to finish with 62 points because they play each other. If Carolina got 64, the most Winnipeg could get is 61. If Winnipeg got 62, the most Carolina could get is 63. Obviously the more teams play each other the more that will be the case. The Islanders play Carolina, NYR and twice against Philly and Winnipeg. How is that taken into account?

25get 04-01-2013 06:53 AM

Pace: Habs .721, NYR: .515.
So we get .721*2 per game and NYR loose .485*2 per game.

So 14 = n * (.721 + .485) * 2 or n=7/1.206
n = 5.8
So in 6 games = April 11th against Buffalo

or can also use NJD (assuming a team will outpace the NYR)
7/(.721+.442)= 7/1.163 = 6.01 games

Edit:
I assume that 14 more points puts us in PO for sure...
Edit-2:
14 points seems good: we are 14 points ahead with 14 games to play.
Edit-3:
Using NJD means 18 as a magic number...
so 9/1.163 = 7.738 = 8
So between 6 to 8 games...

PricePkPatch 04-01-2013 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Shutt (Post 62825383)
3 more points pretty much gets us in according to this: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E.../Montreal.html

"Clinching" implies mathematical clinch. It means you can litterally lose every game until season end, and everybody under you can win all their games, and you'll still make the playoffs.

At this point, I doubt anyone doubts the Habs will make the PO anyway.

Ozymandias 04-01-2013 10:51 PM

With the Islanders becoming as the de-facto 9th place team in the magic number sequence, Habs are now down to 11 with 13 games to play.

Habs can lock this up in 3 games if everything goes their way.


I call 4 games.

Habaneros 04-01-2013 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 62818333)
Magic number is now 11 with 13 games left to play for the Habs.

A few weeks ago, it was 38 with 24 games left to play.


Anyone can guess at which game Habs are gonna clinch their playoff berth?

EDIT: corrected. TY Marc

We already made playoffs.

pine* 04-01-2013 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 62983241)
With the Islanders becoming as the de-facto 9th place team in the magic number sequence, Habs are now down to 11 with 13 games to play.

Habs can lock this up in 3 games if everything goes their way.


I call 4 games.

Actually, Winnipeg is the de-facto 9th place in the MN sequence with their 38pts in 37gms (max of 60pts).

So MN is now 10. :handclap:

Ozymandias 04-01-2013 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pine (Post 62983543)
Actually, Winnipeg is the de-facto 9th place in the MN sequence with their 38pts in 37gms (max of 60pts).

So MN is now 10. :handclap:

Hmm, no...


in terms of magic number

1- Pit 12-56
2- Mtl 13-51
3- Car MN 12
4- Bos 14-48
5- Ott 13-44
6- Tor 12-44

7-NJD MN 13
8-NYR MN 13

9-NYI MN 11
10- Win MN 10

Ozymandias 04-01-2013 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habaneros (Post 62983523)
We already made playoffs.

In probabilities we're a lock, but not mathematically.

Just nice to know, they might get around 10 games where they can put the foot off the accelerator and mend some wounds.

pine* 04-01-2013 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 62984417)
Hmm, no...


in terms of magic number

1- Pit 12-56
2- Mtl 13-51
3- Car MN 12
4- Bos 14-48
5- Ott 13-44
6- Tor 12-44

7-NJD MN 13
8-NYR MN 13

9-NYI MN 11
10- Win MN 10

Awww, my bad. Carry on. :nod: :laugh:

Steve Shutt 04-02-2013 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PricePkPatch (Post 62904501)
"Clinching" implies mathematical clinch. It means you can litterally lose every game until season end, and everybody under you can win all their games, and you'll still make the playoffs.

Hence my use of the word "pretty much" gets us in. Anyways 1 more point gives us a 93.3% chance of getting into the playoffs. Finishing 0-13-0 still leaves us with a 53.8% chance.

Brainiac 04-02-2013 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Shutt (Post 62994955)
Hence my use of the word "pretty much" gets us in. Anyways 1 more point gives us a 93.3% chance of getting into the playoffs. Finishing 0-13-0 still leaves us with a 53.8% chance.

Yeah, I never got this whole 'magic number' concept. We're basically talking about something that is highly improbable (i.e. the habs needing 62 points to make the playoffs). And by highly improbable, we're talking about something that would happen once every 1 000 000 years.

Based on previous seasons and on current pace, something like 53 or 54 points should get you in the playoffs with 99.99999% certainty. Hence, with 1 or 2 more wins, habs will, in all likelihood clinch it.

Just relax guys, no need to calculate magic numbers. Habs are in.

tiz 04-02-2013 06:04 AM

3-10-0 gets us in guaranteed. This year is awesome with all the inter conference play, games are worth a lot more.

Habaneros 04-02-2013 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 62984745)
In probabilities we're a lock, but not mathematically.

Just nice to know, they might get around 10 games where they can put the foot off the accelerator and mend some wounds.

Lol...math says we made it already.
Habs can go 0 wins 12 loss 1ot loss and still make playoffs ..as pointed out ,we could go 0 and 13 and still make it.....habs are already in,only thing left now is how high we finish.

PricePkPatch 04-02-2013 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiz (Post 63002847)
3-10-0 gets us in guaranteed. This year is awesome with all the inter conference play, games are worth a lot more.

If we complete our Division Sweep of the SE, it's 5 more victories for us.

PricePkPatch 04-02-2013 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habaneros (Post 63003361)
Lol...math says we made it already.
Habs can go 0 wins 12 loss 1ot loss and still make playoffs ..as pointed out ,we could go 0 and 13 and still make it.....habs are already in,only thing left now is how high we finish.

You mean "still potentially make the playoffs"

It'll depend on the performances of the teams at that level. Our fate will be out of our hands. Let's avoid that, shall we?

llamateizer 04-02-2013 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habaneros (Post 63003361)
Lol...math says we made it already.
Habs can go 0 wins 12 loss 1ot loss and still make playoffs ..as pointed out ,we could go 0 and 13 and still make it.....habs are already in,only thing left now is how high we finish.

yes but Math also said that the habs can miss the playoff and finish dead last
Mathematically speaking.

Habs lose it all --> 51 pts
Florida (right now 15th) Wins it all --> 52 pts


Here is the magic number that at 100% of all possibilities, the habs make the playoffs

llamateizer 04-02-2013 08:44 AM

Magik number, cannot finish
2 pts --> 15th
6 pts --> 14-15
9 pts --> 12-15
10 pts --> 11-15 and 3rd
11 pts --> 10-15 and 3rd
12 pts --> 9-15 and 3rd
13 pts --> 7-15 and 3rd
18 pts --> 6-15 and 3rd
20 pts --> 5-15 and 3rd
26 pts --> 4-15 and 3rd (clinch division)


the habs need 12 pts to make the playoffs

habs would get 63pts and carolina (wins it all) 62pts. the habs would still finish 8th


if we take in consdieration that the canes plays

the Devils 0 time
the Rangers 2 times

Max Rangers 63 pts
Max Canes 62 pts.

2 pts must be lost. (OT win)
That means that the Habs need 11pts to officially make the playoffs

Brainiac 04-02-2013 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by llamateizer (Post 63004935)
That means that the Habs need 11pts to officially make the playoffs

Well, again, this is waaaaayyyy too much of a 'worst-case scenario' to be even remotely realistic. 2 or 3 wins and we're in with a 99.99999% probability, which is usually more than enough.

The concept of the magic number is much more suited for teams in positions 6-12 when there's between 5 and 10 games left. In that case you can really assume that your magic number is actually required to make the playoffs.

Of course, the habs have been in that situation for more than a decade, so we've developed this habit of calculating magic numbers. But this year??

2nd place team at the 3/4 mark --> don't waste your time calculating, this team is in.

llamateizer 04-03-2013 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brainiac (Post 63024969)
Well, again, this is waaaaayyyy too much of a 'worst-case scenario' to be even remotely realistic. 2 or 3 wins and we're in with a 99.99999% probability, which is usually more than enough.

The concept of the magic number is much more suited for teams in positions 6-12 when there's between 5 and 10 games left. In that case you can really assume that your magic number is actually required to make the playoffs.

Of course, the habs have been in that situation for more than a decade, so we've developed this habit of calculating magic numbers. But this year??

2nd place team at the 3/4 mark --> don't waste your time calculating, this team is in.

I know this team is in. I can easily say that the will get the home ice advantage for round 1

I have fun by doing this, so no time wasted hehe

Steve Shutt 04-04-2013 11:23 PM

1 more point to clinch playoffs (source: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E.../Montreal.html)

Other teams in the Conference need the following record to roughly get in (% chance of getting in with indicated record):

Pitt In
Montreal 0-11-0 (96%)
Boston 0-12-0 (76%)
Leafs 3-7-1 (71%)
Ottawa 4-8 (83%)

Rangers 6-6 (67%) <-- .500 hockey gets them in
Capitals 6-5 (58%)

NYI 6-4-0 (81%)
Devils 6-4-1 (67%)

Winnipeg 6-3 (54%)
Flyers 7-4-0 (61%)
Tampa 8-4 (57%) <--- My Darkhorse
Carolina 8-4 (56%)
Buffalo 9-2 (67%)
Florida out


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