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-   -   Faint Glimmer of Hope: tracking the quest for 8th place (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1391391)

stratedge 03-31-2013 10:23 PM

Faint Glimmer of Hope: tracking the quest for 8th place
 
The purpose of the thread is for [mathematically] honest discussion of the Oiler's playoff hopes. Tracking results from the other games that matter and keeping tabs on where they could finish and how likely that is.

I will update this table each night with this re-ranking of the teams by their P% / maximum obtainable points, which many will agree is a better picture of where a team really stands in the playoff hunt. Nobody can afford losses; a game won holds your position, a game lost even with a loser point and you probably fall down the ladder.


Last updated April 7 (morning), removed all the now mostly uncatchable teams (St. Louis, L.A., Minnesota):
RankTeamGRWLOTPointsMax Points
7http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...esota_wild.png11211424466
8http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images..._red_wings.png9191554361
9http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ix_coyotes.png10171564060
10http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ton_oilers.png10161573959
11http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ue_jackets.png10161573959
12http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...llas_stars.png11171733759

Oilers current odds: 14.7% (as of Apr 7) according to Sports Club Stats. Please note that this calculation is simulation based, not mathematically based.
http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_as...ps12916dc6.gif

Thanks Del Preston for the following:
Rk PtsROW3839404142434445464748H-A
4http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...eles_kings.png4721- - - -@ANA@DALCOLANA@SJCBJDAL@MIN@DETSJ5-5
5http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ose_sharks.png4714- - - -@CBJ@DET@DAL@PHXLAMINCBJDAL@PHX@LA4-6
6http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...esota_wild.png4618- - - -CHISTLCBJ@CGY@EDM@SJCGYLAEDM@COL5-5
7http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ouis_blues.png4418@NSH@MIN@CBJCHIVANPHXDAL@COLCOLCGYCHI7-4
8http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images..._red_wings.png4317- - - - - - - -SJ@CHI@NSH@CGY@VANPHXLANSH@DAL4-5
                
9http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ix_coyotes.png4014- - - -@VAN@EDM@CGYSJ@STL@CHI@DETSJCOL@ANA3-7
10http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...llas_stars.png3916- - - -LA@NSHSJ@CHIVAN@STL@LA@SJCBJDET5-5
11http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ton_oilers.png3914- - - -@ANAPHXCGYMIN@COLANAANACHI@MINVAN7-3
12http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ue_jackets.png3912- - - -- - - -SJSTL@MIN@COL@ANA@LA@SJ@DALNSH3-6
13http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images..._predators.png3813- - - -- - - -- - - -STLDALDETVAN@CHICGY@DET@CBJ5-3

stratedge 03-31-2013 10:30 PM

Relevant games April 1
 
No significant progress today despite the win, as the 6/7/8 teams all won too. But some of the other teams in the running fell back.

TeamOppResult
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ton_oilers.pngCGY:)
MINhttp://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ouis_blues.png:(
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images..._red_wings.pngCOL:(
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...llas_stars.pngANA:)
CHIhttp://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images..._predators.png:)
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ose_sharks.pngVAN:(

Logo shown for teams +/- 4 points from 8th in West.

BFDBFD 03-31-2013 10:33 PM

This is an awesome idea. Thanks for putting it together; I'll be checking it regularly.

:handclap:

stratedge 04-01-2013 11:27 PM

Relevant games April 2
 
TeamOppResult
LAKhttp://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images...ix_coyotes.png:(
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images..._predators.pngCOL:(

I removed P% from the OP table because it's redundant to max points (they both move in sync as they're based on the same variables).

scid14 04-01-2013 11:38 PM

Great thread.

You should do all of the relevant games in the second post just to keep it all in one place and make it easier to find.

Soundwave 04-01-2013 11:39 PM

Lets hope the Jay Bo Curse continues in St. Louis.

402 04-01-2013 11:41 PM

Yeah i like this thread but we could just put it in the ongoing playoff thread which should be renamed btw

scid14 04-01-2013 11:45 PM

No way should this be merged. It's a great compilation of data and statedge will be doing us all a favour in keeping it up to date. Deserves to be in an easy place to find, not lost in a thread.

But also...I'm sure the coming weeks aren't going to be good for my heart.

Stoneman89 04-02-2013 12:30 AM

Or you can just go to NHL.com for regular standings updates.:D

scid14 04-02-2013 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stoneman89 (Post 62997699)
Or you can just go to NHL.com for regular standings updates.:D

But nhl.com doesn't have max points, odds, standings, and smiley's all in one place.

Alex87 04-02-2013 12:38 AM

Wow, when was the last time we could have a thread like this without it being a joke?

Improvement.

loller12 04-02-2013 12:42 AM

geez can u guys imagine us squeaking to 8th place and facing Chicago in a 7 game series. Damn that would be one heck of a series to watch.

s7ark 04-02-2013 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scid14 (Post 62994489)
No way should this be merged. It's a great compilation of data and statedge will be doing us all a favour in keeping it up to date. Deserves to be in an easy place to find, not lost in a thread.

But also...I'm sure the coming weeks aren't going to be good for my heart.

I agree about the work that statedge is doing, but the problem is that it's the same conversation as the "Are the playoffs makeable" thread. And we should have that talk in one place.

So would folks prefer that we shut that thread down and use this one for the playoff chase instead?

MetaOil1993 04-02-2013 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loller12 (Post 62998247)
geez can u guys imagine us squeaking to 8th place and facing Chicago in a 7 game series. Damn that would be one heck of a series to watch.

Great thread!, Edmonton usually plays pretty good against the Hawks the last few years. It would be a high scoring affair IMO, Would be very very entertaining :handclap:, Lets just hope we make it.

jumptheshark 04-02-2013 12:56 AM

I tink canuck fans were confused by the fact we were cheering for their team

northern2020 04-02-2013 12:58 AM

TOPPEP....that is all

Oiltankjob Fail 04-02-2013 12:59 AM

Stl has max 66 pts not 64 but whether this is move or not When Are playoffs makeable fills up I would like to make new one. Im superstitious and it has been working so far 7-2-2 since I made it so we need to keep rookie poster luck going, And yes I have a way better name for next thread.

EchoesoftheEighties 04-02-2013 01:01 AM

Thread should be renamed:

TOPPEP: The Chronicles of the Bag

scid14 04-02-2013 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by s7ark (Post 62998551)
I agree about the work that statedge is doing, but the problem is that it's the same conversation as the "Are the playoffs makeable" thread. And we should have that talk in one place.

So would folks prefer that we shut that thread down and use this one for the playoff chase instead?

I would personally. That thread is already at 740 posts and will be closed at 1000 right? that will be tomorrow probably :laugh: might as well continue the conversation here with a fresh thread and an updated op.

Just my opinion though.

Mc5RingsAndABeer 04-02-2013 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BFDBFD (Post 62895141)
This is an awesome idea. Thanks for putting it together; I'll be checking it regularly.

:handclap:

Agreed. Thanks for doing this.

I hate looking at the standings because it bugs me how much better off we would have been if we didn't blow 2 goal leads in the 3rd against the Sharks and Wings in 2 consecutive games (and lose both in OT/SO).

Dorian2 04-02-2013 01:07 AM

Great thread.

I knew one of our posters would come through.

Exactly what I was looking for here.

s7ark 04-02-2013 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scid14 (Post 62998995)
I would personally. That thread is already at 740 posts and will be closed at 1000 right? that will be tomorrow probably :laugh: might as well continue the conversation here with a fresh thread and an updated op.

Just my opinion though.

These are my thoughts too. Does anyone have any objections to that idea?

smackdaddy 04-02-2013 01:28 AM

My God..

Playoff hopes. I haven't had those in 5 years. Feels good. Real good.

Sethis 04-02-2013 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by northern2020 (Post 62998785)
TOPPEP....that is all

Not yet. We will know when the time has come.

darkwave09 04-02-2013 01:46 AM

Feels strange scoreboard watching for wins instead of loses


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