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-   -   Speculation: 2013 Offseason Goalie Market (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1395619)

ginner classic 04-04-2013 01:03 PM

2013 Offseason Goalie Market
 
There are a lot of people talking about a goalie glut this offseason and I wanted to throw the following Canuck-centric analysis out there.....I try to be as unbviased as I can be.

Teams that are set in goal through the start of next season assuming no management changes or surprises in the playoffs. This list teams nobody really debates if they have a legit starter for next season. I assume Miller is going to be traded. Like all the other keepers on my list.....his availability adds a goalie on the market AND adds a buyer.


Set for next year (starters)
  • Pittsburgh
  • Boston
  • Ottawa
  • NYR
  • Carolina
  • Montreal
  • San Jose
  • Chicago
  • Anaheim
  • LA
  • Vancouver
  • Nashville
  • Columbus
  • Dallas
  • Colorado
  • Edmonton

Wildcards Likely Set for Next Year
  • St Louis*
  • Toronto*
  • Tampa*
  • Winnipeg*


Starters/Elite Prospects Potentially Available Next Year:
  • Luongo/Schneider (Trade)
  • Miller (Trade)
  • Smith (UFA)
  • Backstrom (UFA)
  • Halak (Trade)
  • Hiller (Trade)
  • Bernier (Trade)
  • Bryzgalov (UFA*)
  • Khudobin (UFA)
  • Howard (UFA)
Aging Veterans that Could Start
  • Nabokov
  • Kipper
Players Potentially Done
  • Khabby
  • Kipper
  • Brodeur
  • Bryzgalov
  • Theodore
  • Hedberg
  • Biron
  • Harding
Youngsters that may not be ready to start
  • Allen
  • Holtby
  • Markstrom
  • Bernier
Goalies that are either not ready or will never be ready for the starting job
  • Nilson/Poulin - Backups or not ready
  • Hackett - Not ready. Good potential.
  • Lehner - One more year as a backup. All world talent.
  • Campbell - Not ready
  • Visentin - Not ready
  • Elliott - Not good enough
  • Subban - Years away
Potentially Open Starting Seats
  • Washington
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • Florida
  • New Jersey
  • Calgary
  • Minnesota
  • Phoenix
  • Toronto
  • Detroit
  • St Louis
Past Openings Currently Filled
  • Chicago - Unless there is a first round meltdown, they are sorted for now
  • San Jose - Niemi has been the MVP with Thornton
  • Columbus - Bob's doing great
How it could play out...my SWAG


Washington - I think Holtby can keep it together. No change
NYI - Miller. They have the assets to acquire him and the cap space. They could cheap out and go with Nabby another year, but the players in the system are not worthy of missing out on a big fish. Miller wants to go west but LA/SJ/ANA are all sorted in net. Pheonix won't be able to pay the cap cost.
Philly - Schneider/Luongo. Bryz is a buyout.
Buffalo - Bryzgalov. If they trade Miller, I think they get left without a seat just like Calgary below. Sign a vet and try out the youth.
Florida - Markstrom. The future is now. He is ready. Maybe bring back Theodore for one more year and ditch Clemmenson. Markstrom is NHL ready. They need a reliable veteran backup, not an aging star starter. Tallon would be a fool to trade for Lou.
New Jersey - Bernier. One year to learn from Brodeur. Perfect fit IMO. They have a few assets that LA would want to make a deal.
Calgary - Khudobin. I think they'll roll the dice on a cheaper option. I expect they will lose the bidding war with NJ on Bernier simply due to divisional rivalry. Bryzgalov is another possibility.
Minnesota - Backstrom. Deserves another contract with Minny. Better the devil you know for both parties.
Phoenix - Smith This situation could get quite strange. In my books, Smith is a product of a system, and is very overrated. He has not played that well this season and has a pretty high opinion of his worth. Phoenix is not going to break the bank to sign him but don't have a lot of options. They could make a play for Khudobin or even try a deal with Anaheim for Hiller...but in the end I think Smith will realize he has as good a thing going as he is ever going to have.
Toronto - Kipper. Fatal half measures yet again. If Kipper retires and Reimer/Scrivens show weakness, I am not sure how patient that fan base is going to be. Nonis may not have a lot of pressure, but that Reimer goalie of the future thing has been sold for three years.
Detroit - Howard re-signs, they have no trade fodder and better the devil you know
St Louis - Halak/Allen. I think the improved D will keep this tandem together and cash constraints as well. If Halak fails and Allen is clearly not ready, they will be players this summer for sure.
Tampa Bay - Bishop/Lindback Stevie will live in denial to start the year at least. One of these guys may emerge as a legit starter. Both required overpayment to acquire and both have serious question marks.


Remaining Goalies and Wildcards

Hiller starts year in Anaheim. Poor numbers and Fasth' relative inexperience means the return of the two headed monster next year IMO. Hiller will be available later in the year if Fasth remains as good as he is now. They can afford to be patient with their decisions. If Hiller was on the market it would balance things out between spaces available and goalies avilable. If he stays in Anaheim to start next season there is one more spot available than starters to fill it.

Winnipeg is a wild card in that Schneider's availability and the relations between the teams could make a deal possible. I have to think they are not loving the numbers that Pavalec has put up even though he should get better than he is.

Pittsburgh could enter the market if Fleury can't get it done this year. I personally think Fleury redeems himself.



Conclusion

I fail to see how anyone thinks there is a goalie glut this offseason. While I assume that Philly is a certainty to buy out Bryz and that Miller is on the market, if any one of Washington, Tampa, Toronto, or St Louis experience a stumble there is goign to be real demand for goalies and a shortage of supply. If Kipper retires, or Nabby or Bryz return to Russia maybe moreso. Hiller can fill one opening, and maybe Nabby is an option for another year, but what I see is sufficient demand to find a home for Lou and a potential bidding war for Schneider if he is made available. There will also be a bidding war for Bernier. Miller will attract bids from at least four teams IMO.


Bidders on Schneider if available
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • New Jersey
  • NYI
  • Minnesota
  • phoenix
  • TB *
  • Winnipeg*
Serious Bernier bidding should be between
  • Calgary
  • New Jersey
  • Phoenix
  • NYI
with New Jersey edging the others out on geography.



Candidates for Luongo
  • Toronto
  • New Jersey
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • St Louis *
  • Vancouver *
Candidates for Miller
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Toronto
  • Phoenix
  • St Louis *

Stephen 04-04-2013 01:06 PM

How is Philadelphia buying out Bryz a possibility when Canucks fans refuse to entertain the notion of that happening with Luongo?

Curufinwe 04-04-2013 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen (Post 63283043)
How is Philadelphia buying out Bryz a possibility when Canucks fans refuse to entertain the notion of that happening with Luongo?

Cause Bryz costs less and Snider has money to burn.

Vankiller Whale 04-04-2013 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen (Post 63283043)
How is Philadelphia buying out Bryz a possibility when Canucks fans refuse to entertain the notion of that happening with Luongo?

Because Luongo has actually been playing very well this year.

TheHudlinator 04-04-2013 01:11 PM

Calgary is most likely going to try Ramo - Berra but Khudobin does make sense as a backup just in case.

Shrimper 04-04-2013 01:14 PM

I don't see how Kipprusoff would end up at Toronto when he has said that he doesn't want to move and will retire at Calgary. Also the fact that he's not as good as some would love to believe. I also don't see Boston letting Khudobin go when Subban won't be ready for a few years. Khudobin has done really well so I see them re-signing him.

SprDaVE 04-04-2013 01:18 PM

Toronto will be all over a goaltender like Backstrom or Smith if they make it to free agency.

Stephen 04-04-2013 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale (Post 63283395)
Because Luongo has actually been playing very well this year.

They both suck.

TheHudlinator 04-04-2013 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen (Post 63284025)
They both suck.

Luo has been good this just nobody wants that contract.

Also Kipper is almost 100% retiring this off season.

Robert Theodorson 04-04-2013 01:22 PM

Michal Neuvirth is good enough to be a starter, he has experience both regular season and playoffs, and could be had.

He doesn't play because Holtby is the unquestioned #1 and it seems Oates has alienated Neuvy a bit, he's not getting as many starts as he should.

Blackhawkswincup 04-04-2013 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale (Post 63283395)
Because Luongo has actually been playing very well this year.

Not really

He looks about on par with any average backup

Hardly worthy of praise when looking at his costs

TheHudlinator 04-04-2013 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwedeSpeedBackstrom (Post 63284191)
Michal Neuvirth is good enough to be a starter, he has experience both regular season and playoffs, and could be had.

He doesn't play because Holtby is the unquestioned #1 and it seems Oates has alienated Neuvy a bit, he's not getting as many starts as he should.

What would Washington want for him?

tsujimoto74 04-04-2013 01:26 PM

Buffalo a candidate for Luongo? lol
We can either:
1) Keep Miller and let Hackett spend the year backing him up, hope he plays well enough to steal some starts (and then look for a vet FA to back him up the following year)
or
2) Accept that it will most likely get worse before it gets better and just roll Enroth/Hackett tandem (if we trade Miller before next season)

In no scenario are we looking to pick up a star goalie with a massive contract.

Grant 04-04-2013 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SprDaVE (Post 63283867)
Toronto will be all over a goaltender like Backstrom or Smith if they make it to free agency.

Both are likely going to be asking for too much money and won't want to back up Reimer anyways. In my opinion, the goalies Toronto would be after are those that are listed as potentially done:
Khabby
Theodore
Hedberg
Biron

canucksfan100 04-04-2013 01:39 PM

The only Goalies that i think will be available and are Starter caliber will be Nabakov, Miller Bernier Luongo.

Smith, Backstrom Howard will all resign with thier respective teams. Even if they dont, those teams will be looking for new starting goalies.

FLA(Markstrom?), TOR(Reimer?), NYI(?), CGY(Ramo?), EDM(If Khabby Doesn't Resign) will be looking for veteran goalies who can play about 50% of games at least and can mentor thier young and up and coming goalies.

NJ is a wildcard, they may need a good starting goalie if Brodeur retires and NYI may need one if Nabakov doesnt resign or retires. PHI may also need a goalie since it looks like they're going to buyout Bryz.

WSH maybe also looking for a goalie to mentor Holtby a bit, but i think theyll go after someone like Theodore.

IKEA 04-04-2013 01:40 PM

well done OP

StrongIslanders90 04-04-2013 01:43 PM

First off great job on the thread..

second I would love if the Isles somehow aquired Bernier...

canucksfan100 04-04-2013 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ginner classic (Post 63282807)
There are a lot of people talking about a goalie glut this offseason and I wanted to throw the following Canuck-centric analysis out there.....I try to be as unbviased as I can be.

Teams that are set in goal through the start of next season assuming no management changes or surprises in the playoffs. This list teams nobody really debates if they have a legit starter for next season. I assume Miller is going to be traded. Like all the other keepers on my list.....his availability adds a goalie on the market AND adds a buyer.


Set for next year
  • Pittsburgh
  • Boston
  • Ottawa
  • NYR
  • Carolina
  • Montreal
  • San Jose
  • Chicago
  • Anaheim
  • LA
  • Vancouver
  • Nashville
  • Columbus
  • Dallas
  • Colorado
  • Edmonton
Wildcards Likely Set for Next Year
  • St Louis*
  • Toronto*
  • Tampa*
  • Winnipeg*


Starters/Elite Prospects Potentially Available Next Year:
  • Luongo/Schneider (Trade)
  • Miller (Trade)
  • Smith (UFA)
  • Backstrom (UFA)
  • Halak (Trade)
  • Hiller (Trade)
  • Bernier (Trade)
  • Bryzgalov (UFA*)
  • Khudobin (UFA)
  • Howard (UFA)
Aging Veterans that Could Start
  • Nabokov
  • Kipper
Players Potentially Done
  • Khabby
  • Kipper
  • Brodeur
  • Bryzgalov
  • Theodore
  • Hedberg
  • Biron
  • Harding
Youngsters that may not be ready to start
  • Allen
  • Holtby
  • Markstrom
  • Bernier
Goalies that are either not ready or will never be ready for the starting job
  • Nilson/Poulin - Backups or not ready
  • Hackett - Not ready. Good potential.
  • Lehner - One more year as a backup. All world talent.
  • Campbell - Not ready
  • Visentin - Not ready
  • Elliott - Not good enough
  • Subban - Years away
Potentially Open Starting Seats
  • Washington
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • Florida
  • New Jersey
  • Calgary
  • Minnesota
  • Phoenix
  • Toronto
  • Detroit
  • St Louis
Past Openings Currently Filled
  • Chicago - Unless there is a first round meltdown, they are sorted for now
  • San Jose - Niemi has been the MVP with Thornton
  • Columbus - Bob's doing great
How it could play out...my SWAG


Washington - I think Holtby can keep it together. No change
NYI - Miller. They have the assets to acquire him and the cap space. They could cheap out and go with Nabby another year, but the players in the system are not worthy of missing out on a big fish. Miller wants to go west but LA/SJ/ANA are all sorted in net. Pheonix won't be able to pay the cap cost.
Philly - Schneider/Luongo. Bryz is a buyout.
Buffalo - Bryzgalov. If they trade Miller, I think they get left without a seat just like Calgary below. Sign a vet and try out the youth.
Florida - Markstrom. The future is now. He is ready. Maybe bring back Theodore for one more year and ditch Clemmenson. Markstrom is NHL ready. They need a reliable veteran backup, not an aging star starter. Tallon would be a fool to trade for Lou.
New Jersey - Bernier. One year to learn from Brodeur. Perfect fit IMO. They have a few assets that LA would want to make a deal.
Calgary - Khudobin. I think they'll roll the dice on a cheaper option. I expect they will lose the bidding war with NJ on Bernier simply due to divisional rivalry. Bryzgalov is another possibility.
Minnesota - Backstrom. Deserves another contract with Minny. Better the devil you know for both parties.
Phoenix - Smith This situation could get quite strange. In my books, Smith is a product of a system, and is very overrated. He has not played that well this season and has a pretty high opinion of his worth. Phoenix is not going to break the bank to sign him but don't have a lot of options. They could make a play for Khudobin or even try a deal with Anaheim for Hiller...but in the end I think Smith will realize he has as good a thing going as he is ever going to have.
Toronto - Kipper. Fatal half measures yet again. If Kipper retires and Reimer/Scrivens show weakness, I am not sure how patient that fan base is going to be. Nonis may not have a lot of pressure, but that Reimer goalie of the future thing has been sold for three years.
Detroit - Howard re-signs, they have no trade fodder and better the devil you know
St Louis - Halak/Allen. I think the improved D will keep this tandem together and cash constraints as well. If Halak fails and Allen is clearly not ready, they will be players this summer for sure.
Tampa Bay - Bishop/Lindback Stevie will live in denial to start the year at least. One of these guys may emerge as a legit starter. Both required overpayment to acquire and both have serious question marks.


Remaining Goalies and Wildcards

Hiller starts year in Anaheim. Poor numbers and Fasth' relative inexperience means the return of the two headed monster next year IMO. Hiller will be available later in the year if Fasth remains as good as he is now. They can afford to be patient with their decisions. If Hiller was on the market it would balance things out between spaces available and goalies avilable. If he stays in Anaheim to start next season there is one more spot available than starters to fill it.

Winnipeg is a wild card in that Schneider's availability and the relations between the teams could make a deal possible. I have to think they are not loving the numbers that Pavalec has put up even though he should get better than he is.

Pittsburgh could enter the market if Fleury can't get it done this year. I personally think Fleury redeems himself.



Conclusion

I fail to see how anyone thinks there is a goalie glut this offseason. While I assume that Philly is a certainty to buy out Bryz and that Miller is on the market, if any one of Washington, Tampa, Toronto, or St Louis experience a stumble there is goign to be real demand for goalies and a shortage of supply. If Kipper retires, or Nabby or Bryz return to Russia maybe moreso. Hiller can fill one opening, and maybe Nabby is an option for another year, but what I see is sufficient demand to find a home for Lou and a potential bidding war for Schneider if he is made available. There will also be a bidding war for Bernier. Miller will attract bids from at least four teams IMO.


Bidders on Schneider if available
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • New Jersey
  • NYI
  • Minnesota
  • TB *
  • Winnipeg*
Serious Bernier bidding should be between
  • Calgary
  • New Jersey
  • Phoenix
with New Jersey edging the others out on geography.



Candidates for Luongo
  • Toronto (I would not trade with them at this point if I was Gillis)
  • New Jersey
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • St Louis *
  • Vancouver *
Candidates for Miller
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Toronto
  • Phoenix
  • St Louis *

The only likely candidates for Luongo are TB(Prob Not Anymore), TOR, FLA, NYI(If Nabakov Doesnt Return), Philly and a wildcard would be NJ(If Brodeur retires) and

Schenn 04-04-2013 01:44 PM

Well done op. The only thing I don't quite understand is why you said Gillis shouldn't deal with Toronto? It's not like Toronto did anything to Gillis. They just didn't accept his offer, like 28 other teams never did.

canucksfan100 04-04-2013 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StrongIslanders90 (Post 63285463)
First off great job on the thread..

second I would love if the Isles somehow aquired Bernier...

I would assume if they doesnt Resign Nabakov or he retires, theyd more than likely look at a vetran like a Theodore, Luongo, Miller etc.

ginner classic 04-04-2013 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheHudlinator (Post 63283431)
Calgary is most likely going to try Ramo - Berra but Khudobin does make sense as a backup just in case.

I don't believe any team in the NHL is going to go with a tendem like that. Same situation onthe Island. That's like suggesting Nilson/Poulin. Why start the year with the worst goalie tandem? Makes no sense. I assume every team aspires for one starter they can count on. Khudobin is as risky as any team should go IMO.

CREW99AW 04-04-2013 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ginner classic (Post 63282807)



NYI - Miller. They have the assets to acquire him and the cap space. They could cheap out and go with Nabby another year, but the players in the system are not worthy of missing out on a big fish. Miller wants to go west but LA/SJ/ANA are all sorted in net. Pheonix won't be able to pay the cap cost.
Calgary - Khudobin. I think they'll roll the dice on a cheaper option. I expect they will lose the bidding war with NJ on Bernier simply due to divisional rivalry. Bryzgalov is another possibility.





Conclusion

If Kipper retires, or Nabby or Bryz return to Russia maybe moreso. Hiller can fill one opening, and maybe Nabby is an option for another year, but what I see is sufficient demand to find a home for Lou and a potential bidding war for Schneider if he is made available. There will also be a bidding war for Bernier. Miller will attract bids from at least four teams IMO.

[/LIST]

I bought up Khudobin as a possibility on the NYI board. He's playing well in Boston and his numbers are on par with Bishop and Bernier's.
If Nabby wants more yrs then Snow wants to give, Khudobin could battle Poulin for the #1 spot. Someone made a good point, warning that he and Bernier are playing behind very strong defenses.

Why would Nabby return to Russia when he's playing solidly in the NHL, says he's enjoying himself and is making a very good salary?

StrongIslanders90 04-04-2013 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiCKNESS (Post 63285583)
I would assume if they doesnt Resign Nabakov or he retires, theyd more than likely look at a vetran like a Theodore, Luongo, Miller etc.

I think Nabby will be back, but if he's not you could be right...Theodore would be at the top of thier list because he is the cheapest...Lou with his contract will not be an Islander and Miller is a mayby but I dont see it...

Bernier imo is ready for his chance to be a starter in the NHL...

ginner classic 04-04-2013 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattFratt (Post 63285571)
Well done op. The only thing I don't quite understand is why you said Gillis shouldn't deal with Toronto? It's not like Toronto did anything to Gillis. They just didn't accept his offer, like 28 other teams never did.

Because I am a bitter irrational and emotional human. No legit reason. :-)

CREW99AW 04-04-2013 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiCKNESS (Post 63285583)
I would assume if they doesnt Resign Nabakov or he retires, theyd more than likely look at a vetran like a Theodore, Luongo, Miller etc.

Nabby and Snow are having extension talks.

Doesn't sound like he's considering retirement.


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