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-   -   Fenwick Strength of Schedule (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1398835)

SaskRinkRat 04-08-2013 10:14 AM

Fenwick Strength of Schedule
 
I did a quick little analysis this morning of the remaining schedule for each team, and the average strength of their remaining opponents using Fenwick as the measure of team strength. I got the Fenwick numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com, so I'm not sure how up-to-date they are. I'm just getting used to using all of the available databases, so I thought might be somewhat interesting to others:

Team - Games Remaining - Avg Opp Fenwick

Montreal - 10 - 47.81
Winnipeg - 8 - 48.3
Anaheim - 9 - 48.71
Edmonton - 10 - 48.97
Los Angeles - 9 - 48.98
Ottawa - 10 - 49.39
NY Rangers - 10 - 49.45
NY Islanders - 9 - 49.47
Calgary - 11 - 49.51
Vancouver - 10 - 49.51
Boston - 11 - 49.53
St. Louis - 11 - 49.65
Tampa Bay - 10 - 49.78
Chicago - 10 - 49.92
Minnesota - 10 - 50.01
Colorado - 10 - 50.15
San Jose - 10 - 50.35
Carolina - 11 - 50.46
Columbus - 9 - 50.47
Washington - 9 - 50.58
Pittsburgh - 9 - 50.63
Buffalo - 9 - 50.67
Phoenix - 10 - 50.77
Florida - 9 - 50.81
Nashville - 8 - 51.04
New Jersey - 9 - 51.06
Toronto - 10 - 51.23
Philadelphia - 10 - 51.31
Detroit - 9 - 51.4
Dallas - 10 - 52.82

SaskRinkRat 04-12-2013 11:38 AM

Updated:

Team - Games Remaining - Avg Opp FenwickClose
Montreal - 8 - 48.27
Boston - 8 - 48.54
Winnipeg - 6 - 48.63
Minnesota - 8 - 48.8
NY Islanders - 7 - 49.19
Anaheim - 7 - 49.2
Vancouver - 8 - 49.3
Calgary - 9 - 49.43
Edmonton - 8 - 49.44
Colorado - 7 - 49.5
Los Angeles - 7 - 49.5
Tampa Bay - 8 - 49.53
Washington - 7 - 49.81
Ottawa - 8 - 49.88
Chicago - 9 - 49.95
St. Louis - 9 - 50.13
Columbus - 8 - 50.19
Buffalo - 7 - 50.37
Carolina - 8 - 50.4
NY Rangers - 8 - 50.51
Toronto - 8 - 50.54
Nashville - 7 - 50.72
New Jersey - 8 - 50.85
San Jose - 8 - 50.85
Florida - 8 - 50.86
Detroit - 8 - 50.99
Pittsburgh - 7 - 51.17
Phoenix - 8 - 51.19
Philadelphia - 8 - 51.52
Dallas - 9 - 52.11

Here it is by conference, and without the teams that have very little chance to make the playoffs:

East:
Montreal - 8 - 48.27
Boston - 8 - 48.54
Winnipeg - 6 - 48.63
NY Islanders - 7 - 49.19
Washington - 7 - 49.81
Ottawa - 8 - 49.88
NY Rangers - 8 - 50.51
Toronto - 8 - 50.54
New Jersey - 8 - 50.85
Pittsburgh - 7 - 51.17

West:
Minnesota - 8 - 48.8
Anaheim - 7 - 49.2
Vancouver - 8 - 49.3
Los Angeles - 7 - 49.5
Chicago - 9 - 49.95
St. Louis - 9 - 50.13
Columbus - 8 - 50.19
San Jose - 8 - 50.85
Detroit - 8 - 50.99
Phoenix - 8 - 51.19
Dallas - 9 - 52.11

doubledown99 04-13-2013 12:04 PM

So the higher the Fenwick easier the schedule or tougher?

Bear of Bad News 04-14-2013 02:34 PM

It should be that the tougher schedule corresponds with higher Fenwick.

Here's a good primer on Fenwick:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...istics-fenwick

Pi 04-14-2013 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doubledown99 (Post 63863841)
So the higher the Fenwick easier the schedule or tougher?

The higher the Fenwick, the harder the competition.

Rorschach 04-14-2013 07:00 PM

Los Angeles Fenwick for this measurement has an advantage because they don't have to play themselves nor Boston.

SaskRinkRat 04-14-2013 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rorschach (Post 63954623)
Los Angeles Fenwick for this measurement has an advantage because they don't have to play themselves nor Boston.

I agree that it's an advantage, but not just in the measure. The measure reflects reality, which is that LA and Boston are good teams and therefore have have an advantage because they don't have to play themselves.

SaskRinkRat 04-15-2013 10:25 AM

Update, by conference, without teams who are 4+ points out of 8th at present:

West:
Anaheim - 6 - 47.66
Chicago - 7 - 49.24
Minnesota - 7 - 49.29
Vancouver - 7 - 49.55
Los Angeles - 6 - 49.94
Columbus - 6 - 49.99
St. Louis - 7 - 50.01
Detroit - 6 - 50.95
San Jose - 7 - 51.37
Phoenix - 7 - 51.44
Dallas - 7 - 52.81


East:
Boston - 7 - 48.06
NY Islanders - 6 - 48.31
Montreal - 7 - 48.64
Winnipeg - 6 - 48.87
Ottawa - 7 - 49.26
Toronto - 7 - 50.36
NY Rangers - 7 - 50.44
Washington - 6 - 50.74
Pittsburgh - 6 - 51.39

SaskRinkRat 04-17-2013 02:06 PM

Update April 17 prior to games:

West:
Anaheim - 6 - 47.67
Los Angeles - 5 - 49.27
Chicago - 6 - 49.31
Vancouver - 5 - 49.52
St. Louis - 6 - 49.6
San Jose - 5 - 50.03
Minnesota - 5 - 50.26
Columbus - 5 - 50.46
Detroit - 6 - 50.79
Dallas - 6 - 52.28

East:
NY Islanders - 5 - 47.25
Boston - 6 - 47.59
Ottawa - 5 - 47.86
Montreal - 6 - 48.81
Winnipeg - 5 - 49.17
Toronto - 5 - 50.12
NY Rangers - 6 - 50.42
Pittsburgh - 6 - 50.95
Washington - 5 - 51.87

Teeder9 04-17-2013 05:42 PM

Does this take into account road games? 4 of the 5 teams the Isles face have winning records at home. Pretty much the road that killed Philly, and Buffalo. It is what it is I suppose, but it seems odd that playing your last 5 on the road against 4 decent home home teams would yield an easier schedule for you

8inblack 04-17-2013 06:24 PM

Nevermind saw it was listed oppositely.

SaskRinkRat 04-18-2013 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Teeder9 (Post 64135515)
Does this take into account road games? 4 of the 5 teams the Isles face have winning records at home. Pretty much the road that killed Philly, and Buffalo. It is what it is I suppose, but it seems odd that playing your last 5 on the road against 4 decent home home teams would yield an easier schedule for you

No, it doesn't factor in road / home. It's just a straight up average of the 5v5 Fenwick-Close performance of each team's remaining opponents.

I'm not suggesting this should be taken as the be-all end-all of strength of schedule. It's just one piece of the puzzle.

SaskRinkRat 04-18-2013 10:01 AM

Here's the update (even though I admit this gets less and less interesting as GRs decrease). This time I split up GRs by home (first) and road:

West:
Anaheim - 1 - 4 - 48.06
Los Angeles - 3 - 2 - 49.4
St. Louis - 5 - 1 - 49.55
Vancouver - 3 - 2 - 49.7
San Jose - 3 - 2 - 50.03
Minnesota - 3 - 2 - 50.2
Chicago - 3 - 3 - 50.64
Dallas - 3 - 3 - 52.32
Detroit - 3 - 2 - 52.76
Columbus - 1 - 3 - 53.44

East:
Montreal - 2 - 3 - 46.69
NY Islanders - 0 - 5 - 47.27
NY Rangers - 3 - 3 - 47.99
Boston - 3 - 2 - 48.83
Ottawa - 4 - 1 - 48.86
Pittsburgh - 2 - 3 - 49.35
Toronto - 2 - 3 - 50.11
Winnipeg - 3 - 2 - 50.17
Buffalo - 3 - 1 - 50.79
Washington - 3 - 2 - 51.45

Teeder9 04-18-2013 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaskRinkRat (Post 64173251)
No, it doesn't factor in road / home. It's just a straight up average of the 5v5 Fenwick-Close performance of each team's remaining opponents.

I'm not suggesting this should be taken as the be-all end-all of strength of schedule. It's just one piece of the puzzle.

Thanks. Just wasn't sure


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