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-   -   NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1399235)

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 06:19 PM

NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread
 
Updated through: 4/24
See first post for tonight's "Teams to root for" and "Clinching/Elimination Scenarios"

Current Standings
1: z- Pittsburgh Penguins (70 P, 2 GR)
2: x- Boston Bruins (59 P, 3 GR)
3: y- Washington Capitals (54 P, 1 GR)
4: x- Montreal Canadiens (59 P, 3 GR)
5: x- Toronto Maple Leafs (55 P, 2 GR)
6: x- New York Islanders (54 P, 2 GR)
7: New York Rangers (52 P, 2 GR)
8: Ottawa Senators (52 P, 3 GR)
---------------------------------------
9: Winnipeg Jets (51 P, 1 GR)
10: New Jersey Devils (46 P, 2 GR)
11: Buffalo Sabres (46 P, 1 GR)
12: Philadelphia Flyers (45 P, 2 GR)
13: Carolina Hurricanes (41 P, 2 GR)
14: Tampa Bay Lightning (40 P, 2 GR)
15: Florida Panthers (34 P, 2 GR)

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Devils current points: 46
Devils games remaining: 2
Devils current max points: 50

Devils are eliminated from playoff contention

Current highest possible finish: 10th
Current lowest possible finish: 12th

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Devils can no longer pass:
Pittsburgh Penguins (Eliminated from division race on 4/7)
Boston Bruins (Eliminated 4/10)
Montreal Canadiens (Eliminated 4/11)
Toronto Maple Leafs (Eliminated 4/15)
Ottawa Senators (Eliminated 4/18)
New York Islanders (Eliminated 4/20)
New York Rangers (Eliminated 4/21)
Winnipeg Jets (Eliminated 4/22)

Elimination numbers: Teams that are ahead of the Devils
Combination of points lost by the Devils and points gained by each team that will make it mathematically impossible for the Devils to pass them (excludes current SE leader)

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Devils will automatically finish above:
Florida Panthers (Eliminated 4/20)
Carolina Hurricanes (Eliminated 4/23)
Tampa Bay Lightning (Eliminated 4/23)

Magic numbers: Teams that are behind the Devils
Combination of points gained by the Devils and lost by each team that will make it mathematically impossible for that team to pass the Devils (excludes current SE leader)

Buffalo Sabres- 2
Philadelphia Flyers- 4

Note: I am assuming Devils lose the ROW tiebreaker in ALL scenarios unless they officially won that tiebreaker. See below for more tiebreaker info/tracking.

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Tiebreakers clinched:
Philadelphia Flyers won (Devils can't catch in ROW)
Buffalo Sabres lost (Sabres can't catch Devils in ROW)
Calgary Flames won (Devils can't catch in ROW)
Dallas Stars won (Devils can't catch in ROW)

1st tiebreaker- ROW
Devils current ROW- 16
Devils maximum ROW- 18

Combination of ROW won by each team and lost by Devils to clinch this tiebreaker over the Devils:
Carolina Hurricanes- 1
Tampa Bay Lightning- 2
Edmonton Oilers- 3 (can tie ROW)
Phoenix Coyotes- 3 (can tie ROW)

Combination of ROW won by the Devils and lost by each team to clinch this tiebreaker for the Devils:
Edmonton Oilers- 2 (can tie ROW)
Phoenix Coyotes- 2 (can tie ROW)

2nd tiebreaker- H2H Points
This is a little wonky this year, given some teams play each-other odd number of times times and others even number of times. If two teams play an odd number of times, the first game in the location that has an extra game played in is NOT counted for this tiebreaker (ex. Devils play Montreal three times, twice in Montreal. Their first game, a 2-1 loss, in Montreal does not count for this tiebreaker). Only listing for teams where ROW tiebreaker is not clinched.

Carolina Hurricanes- Tiebreaker tied (1-1-0 vs. 1-1-0)

Tampa Bay Lightning- Lost tiebreaker (0-1-1 vs. 2-0-0)

3rd tiebreaker- Goal Differential
Only listing for teams where 2nd tiebreaker (above) is officially tied.

NJ Devils GD: -14
Carolina Hurricanes GD: -26

Teams higher than the Devils would win this tiebreaker, which won't be official until the end of the season.

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The Draft Lottery
Number in brackets indicates the odds of winning the draft lottery. Note that this year, the team that wins the draft lottery will move straight to #1 regardless of their original position. (In previous years, they would only move up a maximum of 4 spots).

Current Lottery Standings
1 [25%]: Florida Panthers (32 P, 3 GR)
2 [18.8%]: Colorado Avalanche (37 P, 2 GR)
3 [14.2%]: Tampa Bay Lightning (40 P, 2 GR)
4 [10.7%]: Nashville Predators (41 P, 2 GR)
5 [8.1%]: Carolina Hurricanes (41 P, 2 GR)
6 [6.2%]: Edmonton Oilers (41 P, 2 GR)
7 [4.7%]: Calgary Flames (42 P, 2 GR)
8 [3.6%]: Philadelphia Flyers (45 P, 2 GR)
9 [2.7%]: Buffalo Sabres (46 P, 1 GR)
10 [2.1%]: New Jersey Devils (46 P, 2 GR)
11 [1.5%]: Phoenix Coyotes (48 P, 2 GR)
12 [1.1%]: Dallas Stars (48 P, 2 GR)
13 [0.8%]: Winnipeg Jets (51 P, 1 GR)
14 [0.5%]: Columbus Blue Jackets (52 GP, 2 GR)

Only the 14 teams who miss the playoffs are eligible for the draft lottery and listed above. Teams will move in and out as their individual playoff pictures change.

Highest possible lottery finish: 7th
Lowest possible lottery finish: 12th

Teams the Devils cannot finish higher than in the draft lottery:
Florida Panthers
Colorado Avalanche
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nashville Predators
Carolina Hurricanes
Edmonton Oilers

Teams that cannot finish higher than the Devils in the draft lottery:
Winnipeg Jets
Detroit Red Wings/Columbus Blue Jackets

Magic numbers
Combination of points gained by the Devils and lost by each team that will make it mathematically impossible for that team to pass the Devils, thus guaranteeing a lower draft lottery finish for the Devils. Teams on this list are on pace to finish higher in the draft lottery than the Devils.

Calgary Flames- 1
Buffalo Sabres- 2
Philadelphia Flyers- 4

Elimination numbers
Combination of points lost by the Devils and gained by each team that will make it mathematically impossible for the Devils to pass them, thus guaranteeing a higher draft lottery finish for the Devils. Teams on this list are on pace to finish lower in the draft lottery than the Devils.

Dallas Stars- 2
Phoenix Coyotes- 3

Note: Regular tiebreakers still apply but in reverse order here.
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DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 06:20 PM

Tonight's Elimination/Clinching Scenarios (4/25):

Devils eliminate the Flyers with a win and a Flyers regulation loss.
Devils eliminate the Sabres with a win
Devils eliminate the Flames with any point or any Flames loss

(Devils win = highest lottery finish = 9th)
(Devils win + Flyers lose in regulation = highest lottery finish = 10th)

Stars eliminate the Devils with a win or a Devils regulation loss (lowest lottery finish = 12th)

Bleedred 04-08-2013 06:21 PM

I wouldn't root for Carolina. They're a lot closer to us than Boston. I think the odds of Carolina passing us are much greater than the odds of us passing Boston. I wouldn't root for them over Boston.

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleedred (Post 63572197)
I wouldn't root for Carolina. They're a lot closer to us than Boston. I think the odds of Carolina passing us are much greater than the odds of us passing Boston. I wouldn't root for them over Boston.

Don't know why I bolded Carolina, obviously root for Boston :laugh:

Anyways, that all looks good to me. Let me know if there is anything wrong or confusing and I'll work on it. Also let me know if you want something else to be tracked, etc.

Saugus 04-08-2013 06:28 PM

This thread will be very helpful, thanks for doing it. Nice to know we're not completely out of the hunt yet.

OpethNJD 04-08-2013 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saugus (Post 63572757)
This thread will be very helpful, thanks for doing it. Nice to know we're not completely out of the hunt yet.

Agreed, with a little help and a hot streak we can totally get in...go leafs! (I feel so dirty.)

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saugus (Post 63572757)
This thread will be very helpful, thanks for doing it. Nice to know we're not completely out of the hunt yet.

We actually still technically control our own destiny, given we can sweep the Rangers in the two remaining games and gain 4 points over them.

Well, I guess technically now that I look at it, we don't. Assuming the Rangers would win the game in hand, even if we win out, we would tie the Rangers.. who could still have the ROW tiebreaker.

Also, I included the elimination numbers so those who are rooting for a good draft position can also follow along ;)

Czech Trio 04-08-2013 06:33 PM

Since we have 2 games versus NYR if we were to go 2-0, IF, that would be a huge right there.

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czech Trio (Post 63573243)
Since we have 2 games versus NYR if we were to go 2-0, IF, that would be a huge right there.

This thread will always go by mathematically impossible/possible, not likely or unlikely to happen.

But still, we don't technically control our own destiny.

If we win out AND beat the Rangers twice in regulation.. we finish with 58 points. The Rangers would be able to finish with 58 points maximum as well (counting the 4 points they lose to us)... but since they are currently ahead by 3 in the ROW tiebreaker, we wouldn't automatically make that ground up (we would be able to make up 2 ROW) and would ultimately lose on that tiebreaker.

EDIT: Any loss by the Rangers would give us back control of our own destiny.

Sir Fenwick Corsi 04-08-2013 06:58 PM

NJ is still very much alive but it feels completely different because they've barely won any games for weeks now and the schedule is also pretty difficult.

They do enough good things to stay competitive in games and even downright control them. But they have to figure out a way to clean up the brain farts. Both of Buffalo's goals last night were straight up gifts. And that's been a common theme for them as much as the lack of scoring has been.

Get Kovy back, hope our underachievers start delivering and see what happens. If any team in this league is due for a hot streak, it's certainly them.

apice3* 04-08-2013 07:16 PM

much better thread. Pretty comforting to know how far we are from actually being eliminated. Still time to snap out of the funk.

Also, we may technically control our own destiny since NYR and NYI have a game against one another but that much math will make my head hurt if i try to calculate it

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 07:20 PM

Updated for tiebreakers.

I'm only going to work in each tiebreaker into the magic/elimination numbers as they are clinched, which won't be for a little while. Until then, assuming Devils lose all tiebreakers (worst case scenarios).

The tiebreaker for H2H points is wonky this year, given the odd number of games people play against each-other. I posted more about this above.

Bleedred 04-08-2013 07:21 PM

We might be able to get in with 52 points. The 8th place team will probably finish with 52 points, maybe even 50. As long as the 8th and 9th place teams don't both finish with 50-52 points each then we'll be good.

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apice3 (Post 63576453)
much better thread. Pretty comforting to know how far we are from actually being eliminated. Still time to snap out of the funk.

Also, we may technically control our own destiny since NYR and NYI have a game against one another but that much math will make my head hurt if i try to calculate it

Haha, this is true..

If we win out, all in ROW:
Devils: 58 points
Rangers: max 58 points (more ROW)
Islanders: max 60 points (more ROW)

So if the Rangers beat the Islanders, they'd drop to 58 points but win the tiebreaker.. if the Islanders beat the Rangers, they'd drop to 56 points. We would only control our own destiny if the Rangers lose that game, so not technically controlling our own destiny outright.

AfroThunder396 04-08-2013 07:43 PM

Boston up big, Leafs up by 2 and the end of the 2nd.

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 07:50 PM

Okay I think I'm done tinkering and like the format as I have it.

Going to quickly figure out the ROW tiebreaker magic numbers.

Would love all feedback, I think this thread is pretty comprehensive but let me know if something isn't explained well, is wrong or if I'm missing something you'd like to see.

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 (Post 63579951)
Boston up big, Leafs up by 2 and the end of the 2nd.

Hahah, I read your original post and was confused as hell. Ninja edit ;)

EDIT: Thread is done. Everything I can think of is included and I think this is the best format.

NJDevs26 04-08-2013 08:45 PM

Amazingly, the Devils are back to controlling their own destiny now that the Rangers lost in regulation.

DevilChuk* 04-08-2013 08:49 PM

Yup, updated for all games tonight now. I didn't give it a magic number because technically, there isn't one. Devils would need to win out in ROW to automatically make the playoffs.

Realized I don't really give point totals in the OP so going to put that in now too.

Kensu 04-08-2013 09:59 PM

beyond amazed how we can still get a playoff spot.

goalvalchuk17 04-08-2013 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kensu (Post 63594237)
beyond amazed how we can still get a playoff spot.

we're 2 points out.

Kensu 04-08-2013 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goalvalchuk17 (Post 63595963)
we're 2 points out.

That's what I meant :laugh: you'd be thinking winning 7 out of the last 25ish games it wouldn't be as close.

billingtons ghost 04-09-2013 12:58 AM

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

This site does it all...

DevilChuk* 04-09-2013 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billingtons ghost (Post 63605015)

That site is completely different

It runs simulations based on the remaining schedule (winners based on either GD or a coin flip) and gives you the percentage of the time the team made the playoffs with each record they finished. 100% on that site doesn't mean a team will make the playoffs automatically, rather it means that in the millions of simulations they ran, that team never missed. Can still miss the playoffs though.

This thread keeps track of the points necessary to gain to ensure we finish above a certain team (or conversely, the points we need to lose to ensure we finish below a certain team). It's also tracking tiebreaker scenarios..

Richer's Ghost 04-09-2013 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevilChuk (Post 63605175)
That site is completely different

It runs simulations based on the remaining schedule (winners based on either GD or a coin flip) and gives you the percentage of the time the team made the playoffs with each record they finished. 100% on that site doesn't mean a team will make the playoffs automatically, rather it means that in the millions of simulations they ran, that team never missed. Can still miss the playoffs though.

This thread keeps track of the points necessary to gain to ensure we finish above a certain team (or conversely, the points we need to lose to ensure we finish below a certain team). It's also tracking tiebreaker scenarios..

It does probability forecasting for every outcome too - along with the "who should we root for" part very well. For instance, if Philly wins tonight which I'm sure people are naturally be inclinded to cheer for so it freezes the Islanders down in the standings, well, if it's a regulation win, Philly is nearly tied with us in odds to make the playoffs whereas if they lose they are basically dead and we only drop 3%. It would eliminate a horse from the race practically. The Islanders can swing nearly 25% on this game as well. Pray for a regulation win either way - 3pt games are going to be the death blow at this point.


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