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-   -   OT: Official 2013 Patriots/NFL Thread **mod warning post 200*** (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1413271)

TP 04-26-2013 01:22 PM

Official 2013 Patriots/NFL Thread **mod warning post 200***
 
New thread for 2013.

LSCII 04-26-2013 01:27 PM

What's the over under on trading down again in the next few rounds?

Johnnyduke 04-26-2013 01:45 PM

All about "value". If bill trades a 2nd for a 3rd and a 4th, some people will eat it up.

Hawgood_38 04-26-2013 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LSCII (Post 64710131)
What's the over under on trading down again in the next few rounds?

Are you asking for the odds of it happening or the over/under on the number of times it happens.

Odds - 1:1 - I think it's a given they'll do it at least once.

Over/Under - 1.5 - I'll take the over

LSCII 04-26-2013 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawgood_38 (Post 64711303)
Are you asking for the odds of it happening or the over/under on the number of times it happens.

Odds - 1:1 - I think it's a given they'll do it at least once.

Over/Under - 1.5 - I'll take the over

I'd be shocked if they didn't and I think it will be multiple times...:laugh:

smithformeragent 04-26-2013 01:58 PM

Hey, Dickie Dunn wrote this. It's gotta be true.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/sto...s-1st-rounders

LSCII 04-26-2013 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smithformeragent (Post 64711487)
Hey, Dickie Dunn wrote this. It's gotta be true.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/sto...s-1st-rounders

The money doesn't matter to me or most fans though. I don't care that second rounders cost less and that their value is higher because of that. I want game breaking talent, and the odds of finding that later in the draft are lower than if they traded up instead of down. :laugh:

smithformeragent 04-26-2013 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LSCII (Post 64711623)
The money doesn't matter to me or most fans though. I don't care that second rounders cost less and that their value is higher because of that. I want game breaking talent, and the odds of finding that later in the draft are lower than if they traded up instead of down. :laugh:

I'm with ya.

Still wish they'd have pulled the trigger on the Peppers trade.

Bi Coastal Bawse* 04-26-2013 02:05 PM

Been sick of all the trading down for awhile. True we have gotten some good players in the value picks over the last few years but we have also missed out on some.

IMO our only holes are in DB, DL, WR. Could also use some OL help

LSCII 04-26-2013 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smithformeragent (Post 64711733)
I'm with ya.

Still wish they'd have pulled the trigger on the Peppers trade.

Me too. Would have loved that guy in a Pats uniform...

Bi Coastal Bawse* 04-26-2013 02:10 PM

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...arget-on-day-2

:) Justin Hunter, Banks, Short.........PLEASE

deliciouspie 04-26-2013 03:55 PM

i'd love to have the dataset on that study to answer some questions i have:

- what's the merit function for "effectiveness"
- are they treating pick #33 the same as #64
- what's the average and standard deviation in effectiveness as a function of draft number
- the league is capped so you can only have so many dollars spent; you can also only have so many guys on the field, so how are they doing the merit function that takes into account two 2nd round guys at 70% of the effectiveness versus one 1st round guy at 100%
- why am i spending my time at work when it seems like if one demonstrates an undergrad-level understanding of statistics, they are better positioned than half of the damn gms in sports

LSCII 04-26-2013 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deliciouspie (Post 64716659)
i'd love to have the dataset on that study to answer some questions i have:

- what's the merit function for "effectiveness"
- are they treating pick #33 the same as #64
- what's the average and standard deviation in effectiveness as a function of draft number
- the league is capped so you can only have so many dollars spent; you can also only have so many guys on the field, so how are they doing the merit function that takes into account two 2nd round guys at 70% of the effectiveness versus one 1st round guy at 100%
- why am i spending my time at work when it seems like if one demonstrates an undergrad-level understanding of statistics, they are better positioned than half of the damn gms in sports

You'd figure the concept that a quarter is worth more than two dimes is relatively easy to grasp, but apparently not. :laugh:

smithformeragent 04-26-2013 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LSCII (Post 64717389)
You'd figure the concept that a quarter is worth more than two dimes is relatively easy to grasp, but apparently not. :laugh:

It is, but some would argue that last night they turned a quarter into three dimes.

I can understand the logic in them hedging their bets a bit and figuring that they can potentially plug two holes rather than just one. Another way of looking at it is that you get more bites at the apple with this method so there's a greater chance that one of the picks will work out, rather than striking out on a first rounder.

Again, part of it is just BB apologists rationalizing and selling themselves on the fact that if he chooses this method, it must be right because "he's a genius".

Cabin Mirror 04-26-2013 06:02 PM

I'm glad I didn't watch. It must be frustrating to wait three hours only to have your team trade out at the last minute.

Guiledoom 04-26-2013 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cabin Mirror (Post 64721469)
I'm glad I didn't watch. It must be frustrating to wait three hours only to have your team trade out at the last minute.

Eh most people are here pretty much assume the Patriots will end up trading down. That's why last year was so exciting.

Mountain 04-26-2013 06:31 PM

I want Johnathan Banks and either justin Hunter or Robert Woods, whoever is still on the board at their pick.

I'm really hoping Bill picks CB and WR during the 2nd.

Dellstrom 04-26-2013 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cabin Mirror (Post 64721469)
I'm glad I didn't watch. It must be frustrating to wait three hours only to have your team trade out at the last minute.

I flicked between it and the Bruins game last night, during commercial breaks and intermission.

The amount of time it takes to make one pick, have the commissioner say it, and have the kid walk out to the stage is excruciatingly slow. I'm glad I didn't stay up any longer. :laugh:

BergyDGD 04-26-2013 06:48 PM

Well there goes Justin Hunter to Tennessee, still think Robert Woods fits the Patriots the best.

BergyDGD 04-26-2013 06:54 PM

With their two picks in this round I want to see them go with Robert Woods at WR, and Bacarri Rambo S, Georgia or the Honey Badger (basically a playmaker in the secondary). Although John Jenkins out of Georgia could be an ideal successor for Wilfork coming in at 6' 3" 350lbs.

Bi Coastal Bawse* 04-26-2013 07:18 PM

:shakehead

BergyDGD 04-26-2013 07:21 PM

at WR I liked Woods, Hunter, and Patterson and now they're all gone. Dammit!

acr* 04-26-2013 07:26 PM

At this point I say let loose the Honey Badger

Johnnyduke 04-26-2013 07:31 PM

Shortening time in between picks is the greatest thing to ever happen to the draft...can't believe they didn't do this years ago

Guest celebrity pickers is an equally terrible idea...can't understand some of these dudes

So miss state had two corners taken in top 40 picks? Dang...

Johnnyduke 04-26-2013 07:32 PM

Also, I am thrilled the jets took a qb. Immediate controversy and I don't believe in geno to begin with


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