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-   -   Prospect Info: 2013 Draft Thread: "Shoo-in for Nichushkin" (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1430185)

dnicks17 05-15-2013 05:48 PM

2013 Draft Thread: "Shoo-in for Nichushkin"
 
Continue here.

Credit goes to BarDownBobo for the title. :handclap:

I am the Liquor 05-15-2013 06:03 PM

Fourier, I like to get ahead of things (Trade Hemsky Now), so Im putting it out there. We can have a clearer idea in five years from now, and at that time I will remember who stood on what side of the fence.

DousedInOil 05-15-2013 06:08 PM

Just for those who don't think teams get lucky in the draft since 2008:

Montreal:
Mark MacMillan 113rd
Morgan Ellis 117th
Brendan Gallagher 147th

Chicago:
Phillip Danault 26th
Adam Clendening 36th
Brandon Saad 43rd

Anaheim:
Nicholas Deschamps 35th
Eric O'Dell 39th
Justin Schultz 43rd

If any of those teams knew that those players were going to be that good, they would have taken him earlier. The reason each of those guys dropped was that they had significant flaws that they had to overcome or were "risky" picks. I forget where I heard it but I remember hearing macT say that he wanted his scouts to be able to make their picks this year and go with their gut. I hope we see higher risk high reward players instead of the safe but less rewarding players like Hamilton, Pitlick, Moroz etc. I get we need size but its hard to draft role players.

Sethis 05-15-2013 06:11 PM

IATL: you've said twice now that KP had 8 years on the job and Stu has had 7? Entirely incorrect.

KP was in charge of the 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, and 07 drafts. So that is 8 years.

Stu was in charge of the 08, 09, 10, 11, and 12 drafts. That's 5 with one on the horizon. You could count this year's work as 6 but we have no means to judge him for it.

I am the Liquor 05-15-2013 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethis (Post 66110485)
IATL: you've said twice now that KP had 8 years on the job and Stu has had 7? Entirely incorrect.

KP was in charge of the 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, and 07 drafts. So that is 8 years.

Stu was in charge of the 08, 09, 10, 11, and 12 drafts. That's 5 with one on the horizon. You could count this year's work as 6 but we have no means to judge him for it.

Stu was hired in 07. That is seven years. At any rate he is coming up quickly on Prendergast's time here.

I am the Liquor 05-15-2013 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DousedInOil (Post 66110343)
Just for those who don't think teams get lucky in the draft since 2008:

Montreal:
Mark MacMillan 113rd
Morgan Ellis 117th
Brendan Gallagher 147th

Chicago:
Phillip Danault 26th
Adam Clendening 36th
Brandon Saad 43rd

Anaheim:
Nicholas Deschamps 35th
Eric O'Dell 39th
Justin Schultz 43rd

If any of those teams knew that those players were going to be that good, they would have taken him earlier. The reason each of those guys dropped was that they had significant flaws that they had to overcome or were "risky" picks. I forget where I heard it but I remember hearing macT say that he wanted his scouts to be able to make their picks this year and go with their gut. I hope we see higher risk high reward players instead of the safe but less rewarding players like Hamilton, Pitlick, Moroz etc. I get we need size but its hard to draft role players.

There is luck involved no doubt. But if a team consistently underperforms, are they unlucky, or incompetent?

Sethis 05-15-2013 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by I am the Liquor (Post 66110683)
Stu was hired in 07. That is seven years. At any rate he is coming up quickly on Prendergast's time here.

Completely flawed argument if you're making judgment calls on his body of work as you are. He isn't coming up quickly on Prendergast's time, he has only just passed the halfway point.

doubledown99 05-15-2013 06:28 PM

Again IATL the success rate in those rounds you are saying are low. So saying Stu has underperformed - compared to what?

Which team has performed better? And how much better?

Sure we have had the #1 picks in 3 straight drafts but Stu could have picked other players in those spots so does he deserve credit for picking the right player?

This argument is just a circular one and like I've said much to early to analyze.

I am the Liquor 05-15-2013 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethis (Post 66110829)
Completely flawed argument if you're making judgment calls on his body of work as you are. He isn't coming up quickly on Prendergast's time, he has only just passed the halfway point.

Three more drafts to go, including next month's draft, so in just over two years time he will have had the exact same tenure as Prendergast as far as "head scout" goes.

See you then.:p:

BarDownBobo 05-15-2013 07:10 PM

We're not going to know what Stu's legacy is until far down the road. Around the 2010-2011 draft time, I remember lots of people going on about how great he was based on how well the prospects were doing in Junior. Now in the two years since that, many of those prospects have had rocky transitions to Pro and many think Stu is awful. Reality is he's not the elite scout people once thought, but he's not awful either.

Also, people need to remember the final say went to Tambo, so the players we selected aren't necessarily who Stu wanted.

haterbehatin 05-15-2013 07:19 PM

Most of these guys are also far too early into their pro careers to make a true evaluation at this point anyways. Bunz had a bad year I guess he was a terrible pick and we should release him? Most of these guys won't pan out, that's simply the nature of the draft but to declare them all worthless failures when they're barely into their pro careers is pretty short sighted.

tiger_80 05-15-2013 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by I am the Liquor (Post 66111393)
Three more drafts to go, including next month's draft, so in just over two years time he will have had the exact same tenure as Prendergast as far as "head scout" goes.

See you then.:p:

Would be interesting to compare MacGregor's record to other teams' head scouts' during the same time span. I suspect he'd rank in the bottom third of the league. Prendergast blew a lot of 1st round picks, but had some successes with later picks. If one subtracts 1st overall, MacGregor has very little to show other than Eberle and maybe Klefbom right now.

Prendergast's failed 1st round picks:

2000--Mikhnov
2002--Niinimaki, Deslauriers
2003 Pouliot
2004--Schremp
2007 PLante, Nash

Successful picks: Hemsky (2001), Stoll, Greene (both 2002), Dubnyk (2004), Cogliano (2005), Petry (2006), Gagner (2007)

lakai17 05-15-2013 08:02 PM

There is no way Nichuskin is available at #7, to me he is the BPA.

For offense: I would select Barkov but he shouldn't be available, so I'd be happy with either Monahan or Lindholm.

For defence: I am sold on Zadorov. 6'5 and 230lbs already, big hitter and plays great defence. I'm on the Zadorov wagon. Imagine the future on Edmonton's blueline, a lot of size and hard to play against.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/04/...er-profile-12/

rockinghockey 05-15-2013 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakai17 (Post 66116365)
There is no way Nichuskin is available at #7, to me he is the BPA.

For offense: I would select Barkov but he shouldn't be available, so I'd be happy with either Monahan or Lindholm.

For defence: I am sold on Zadorov. 6'5 and 230lbs already, big hitter and plays great defence. I'm on the Zadorov wagon. Imagine the future on Edmonton's blueline, a lot of size and hard to play against.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/04/...er-profile-12/

If Nush is not available at 7 that means that one of Monahan or Lindholm is available. Which one do you pick?

The Nuge 05-15-2013 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockinghockey (Post 66117379)
If Nush is not available at 7 that means that one of Monahan or Lindholm is available. Which one do you pick?

Monahan without question imo

Game 8 05-15-2013 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by I am the Liquor (Post 66111393)
Three more drafts to go, including next month's draft, so in just over two years time he will have had the exact same tenure as Prendergast as far as "head scout" goes.

See you then.:p:

I agree, were theres smoke theres fire! More than enough time for a few surprises to start popping up from the draft table or at least trending the right way. Just isnt happening and how long do we give this guy? The other point which is really sad is we have been given three no brainers with our first overalls if we failed to add anything else in those drafts that is really bad news!

The Nuge 05-15-2013 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Game 8 (Post 66118013)
I agree, were theres smoke theres fire! More than enough time for a few surprises to start popping up from the draft table or at least trending the right way. Just isnt happening and how long do we give this guy? The other point which is really sad is we have been given three no brainers with our first overalls if we failed to add anything else in those drafts that is really bad news!

Rajala, Davidson, Gernat, etc. Lots of later round guys are popping up with potential

tiger_80 05-15-2013 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Nuge (Post 66118403)
Rajala, Davidson, Gernat, etc. Lots of later round guys are popping up with potential

There is not a whole lot of potential here. Rajala is an extremely long shot, his good AHL season notwithstanding. Ditto for Gernat. Barring an epidemics of injuries, Davidson will have to make very significant progress to even get a cup of coffee in the NHL in the next few seasons. But he's a good project.

rockinghockey 05-15-2013 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Nuge (Post 66117689)
Monahan without question imo

Why Monahan though, it seems that all the scouting agencies have Lindholm being the better prospect. Are we just high on Monahan because of his size?

lakai17 05-15-2013 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockinghockey (Post 66117379)
If Nush is not available at 7 that means that one of Monahan or Lindholm is available. Which one do you pick?

Sean Monahan easily. I don't understand the Lindholm hype. Monahan had no help on his team whatsoever this season and produced respectable numbers.

Senor Catface 05-15-2013 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiger_80 (Post 66118893)
There is not a whole lot of potential here. Rajala is an extremely long shot, his good AHL season notwithstanding. Ditto for Gernat. Barring an epidemics of injuries, Davidson will have to make very significant progress to even get a cup of coffee in the NHL in the next few seasons. But he's a good project.

What matters is that Rajala has now become a tradeable asset. Teams are going to notice a rookie scoring at a PPG and doing very well in the playoffs. Even if he's a longshot here, I think this opens up the option for other teams.

doubledown99 05-15-2013 09:37 PM

So just went through all the teams and who they have drafted and have played on their teams (since 2008 draft and on). Here is the list. Its not comprehensive and I might have missed a few players since I went through it quickly. Players in brackets are potential players - guys that might have played a few games but aren't 100% established:

• Anaheim - Fowler, Etem, Palmieri, Smith-Pelley (maybe can include Holland)
• Boston - Seguin, Hamilton
• Buffalo - Kassian, Myers, Ennis, Foligno, Pysyk, Grigorenko
• Calgary - Brodie, Bartschi, Erixon
• Carolina - Skinner, Faulk, McBain
• Chicago - Kruger, Pirri, Saad
• Columbus - Johansen, Calvert, Atkinson, Murray, Moore, (Jenner)
• Colorado - Duchene, RoR, Landeskog, Barrie, Elliot
• Dallas - Oleksiak, Chiasson
• Detroit - Tatar, Nyquist, (Sheahan)
• Edmonton - Yak, Hall, Ebs, Nuge, MPS, (Harti, Lander)
• Florida - Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Petrovic, Bjugstad, Howden, Kulikov, Shore
• LA - B. Schenn, Clifford, Nolan, Doughty, Voynov, Lokhtoniov
• Minnesota - Brodin, Granlund, Zucker, Leddy, (Hackett)
• Montreal - Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi, Gallagher, (M. Ellis - should play in NHL)
• Nashville - Watson, Ellis, Latta, G. Bourque
• New Jersey - Larsson, Matteau, Josefson, Henrique, (Tedenby has played but is trending toward bust)
• NYI - Tavares, Cizikas, Hamonic, Martin, Bailey, J. Spurgeon
• NYR - Miller, Kreider, Del Zotto, Stephan
• Ottawa - Zibanejad, Pageau, Cowen, Silferberg, Lehner, EK, Weircioch, Smith
• PHI - Couts, Rinaldo, Sbisa
• PHX - OEL, Boedker
• Pit - Bennet, Despres
• SJ - Coyle, Demers, Wingels
• St. Louis - Tarasenko, Schwartz, Pietrangelo, Allen
• Tampa - Connolly, Gudas, Hedman
• Vancouver - Corrado, Schroeder, Hodgson
• Washington - Eakin Orlov, Johansson, Forsberg, Wilson
• Winnipeg - Burmistrov, E. Kane

In my opinion the Oilers aren't a bottom 10 drafting team but to each his own. Obviously still way to early to say anything definitively......but here is an early look.....

rockinghockey 05-15-2013 09:47 PM

Do I agree with all the picks that we have made in the last 5 or 6 years of course not. We have no idea what we have as far as our prospects go. They are still 2 yrs away until the first set is consider a bust or not. Those players are PRV, Lander, Harti, Hamilton, Pitlick, and Rajala. I am sure there are a few more but that is about it. I feel that they need two more seasons to see if they are a bust or not.

zeus3007* 05-15-2013 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DousedInOil (Post 66110343)
Just for those who don't think teams get lucky in the draft since 2008:

Montreal:
Mark MacMillan 113rd
Morgan Ellis 117th
Brendan Gallagher 147th

Chicago:
Phillip Danault 26th
Adam Clendening 36th
Brandon Saad 43rd

Anaheim:
Nicholas Deschamps 35th
Eric O'Dell 39th
Justin Schultz 43rd

If any of those teams knew that those players were going to be that good, they would have taken him earlier. The reason each of those guys dropped was that they had significant flaws that they had to overcome or were "risky" picks. I forget where I heard it but I remember hearing macT say that he wanted his scouts to be able to make their picks this year and go with their gut. I hope we see higher risk high reward players instead of the safe but less rewarding players like Hamilton, Pitlick, Moroz etc. I get we need size but its hard to draft role players.

You consider Moroz a safe pick? He's the definition of a risk/reward pick.

zeus3007* 05-15-2013 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakai17 (Post 66121009)
Sean Monahan easily. I don't understand the Lindholm hype. Monahan had no help on his team whatsoever this season and produced respectable numbers.

You probably haven't seen enough of Lindholm to get the hype.


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