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-   -   Speculation: Trading Up Part II: The Midnight Barkov (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1445239)

Top Pair Imposter 06-10-2013 08:19 PM

Trading Up Part II: The Midnight Barkov
 
woo yeah that sure was a thread that stayed on topic


Pick value based on past trades:

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/25...raft_chart.PNG

For those keeping score at home #8 and #16 are roughly equivalent to #2. I don't buy it but this takes so many different transactions into account that it's hard to say.

More interesting is the relative value of trading down. Specifically, moving down from 8 to something like 14 could get you a pick in the 35-45 range.

sonnEbunny 06-10-2013 08:30 PM

I took your advice and posted a poll on the main board. To not get off track I would love to see Buffalo do what it can to secure Nichushkin. Would Nashville accept 8, 52 and Stafford? I don't really think Stafford adds a whole lot for Nashville, maybe throw in Cat instead?

Top Pair Imposter 06-10-2013 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonnEbunny (Post 67313991)
I took your advice and posted a poll on the main board. To not get off track I would love to see Buffalo do what it can to secure Nichushkin. Would Nashville accept 8, 52 and Stafford? I don't really think Stafford adds a whole lot for Nashville, maybe throw in Cat instead?

Well, I don't think Nashville is the play in that scenario.

I think Nich goes 3rd if he's going in the top five at all. If he does, the immediate effort should be to pry Carolina's pick out of them for 8 and 16 so that they can pick up Drouin/Barkov.

If he doesn't, the spot to most certainly pick up Nich would also be 5, but I don't think he goes there either.

Paxon 06-10-2013 08:35 PM

No disrespect Chain, but can we talk about the likelihood of ancient aliens for a minute.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason (Post 67313411)
woo yeah that sure was a thread that stayed on topic


Pick value based on past trades:

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/25...raft_chart.PNG

For those keeping score at home #8 and #16 are roughly equivalent to #2. I don't buy it but this takes so many different transactions into account that it's hard to say.

More interesting is the relative value of trading down. Specifically, moving down from 8 to something like 14 could get you a pick in the 35-45 range.

This is probably better data than that other study which IIRC tried to assign actual value to draft spots rather than trade value based on actual trades. Trade value is what matters here, outside of judging whether or not the trade's worthwhile.

At any rate, this draft deviates from the norm enough that I'm not sure you can apply any of this in a very practical way, if ever you can. It's so situational as only 1 team holds a given spot. thus what it takes to get a deal done is dependent on their needs and valuations more than anything else. That can be said about any trade, but it feels even more true about trading for draft spots on draft day. Outside of trading down from the mid 2nd round or on, each trade is probably in a vacuum and doesn't have much bearing on the valuations in future deals.

Jame 06-10-2013 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonnEbunny (Post 67313991)
I took your advice and posted a poll on the main board. To not get off track I would love to see Buffalo do what it can to secure Nichushkin. Would Nashville accept 8, 52 and Stafford? I don't really think Stafford adds a whole lot for Nashville, maybe throw in Cat instead?

too bad you tried to subjectively influence it with "if you were starting your franchise today" stuff...

what does that have to do with who is better based on their performance?

You've already skewed your poll.... not to mention, Thomas' age (39) is now a major factor when deciding who to choose...

Top Pair Imposter 06-10-2013 08:50 PM

cool talk about it in that thread

sonnEbunny 06-10-2013 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jame (Post 67314941)
too bad you tried to subjectively influence it with "if you were starting your franchise today" stuff...

what does that have to do with who is better based on their performance?

You've already skewed your poll.... not to mention, Thomas' age (39) is now a major factor when deciding who to choose...

Read the whole thing and post on the forum, that was the original argument though who is better. AKA who would you rather have to win today, this is not a future question.

Jame 06-10-2013 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonnEbunny (Post 67315547)
Read the whole thing and post on the forum, that was the original argument though who is better. AKA who would you rather have to win today, this is not a future question.

:facepalm:
okie dokie then

sonnEbunny 06-10-2013 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason (Post 67314161)
Well, I don't think Nashville is the play in that scenario.

I think Nich goes 3rd if he's going in the top five at all. If he does, the immediate effort should be to pry Carolina's pick out of them for 8 and 16 so that they can pick up Drouin/Barkov.

If he doesn't, the spot to most certainly pick up Nich would also be 5, but I don't think he goes there either.

I really think that the top 2 are going to be the Halifax forwards. In that scenario I see TB taking Jones, I would be shocked if they passed up on him with their deep pool of forward prospects. If this scenario plays out where do you see Nich ending up?

DJN21 06-10-2013 09:06 PM

Back on track....Im down for trading down, so long as it means not forfeiting 16. I really dont see us getting to the top 3 and if we cant get to 3 id rather keep both picks. 8 will get us one of monohan, nurse, RR, Nish, Lindholm...and 16 could be any number of guys im perfectly happy with. 16 will be a real head scratcher depending on who on the board really. Even if we ended up with a guy like Erne with that pick Id be happy with it.

If anything Id rather trade a few 2nds or Miller and get more active in the 1st and really stock the cupboard but thats just me...

Top Pair Imposter 06-10-2013 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonnEbunny (Post 67316015)
I really think that the top 2 are going to be the Halifax forwards. In that scenario I see TB taking Jones, I would be shocked if they passed up on him with their deep pool of forward prospects. If this scenario plays out where do you see Nich ending up?

I can't shake Barkov to NSH in that scenario. I could be wrong but if that's the case Carolina would be the target.

Jame 06-10-2013 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJN21 (Post 67316037)
Back on track....Im down for trading down, so long as it means not forfeiting 16. I really dont see us getting to the top 3 and if we cant get to 3 id rather keep both picks. 8 will get us one of monohan, nurse, RR, Nish, Lindholm...and 16 could be any number of guys im perfectly happy with. 16 will be a real head scratcher depending on who on the board really. Even if we ended up with a guy like Erne with that pick Id be happy with it.

If anything Id rather trade a few 2nds or Miller and get more active in the 1st and really stock the cupboard but thats just me...

you mean UP

DJN21 06-10-2013 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jame (Post 67316145)
you mean UP

I do sir thank you.

DJN21 06-10-2013 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason (Post 67316103)
I can't shake Barkov to NSH in that scenario. I could be wrong but if that's the case Carolina would be the target.

agreed.

sonnEbunny 06-10-2013 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason (Post 67316103)
I can't shake Barkov to NSH in that scenario. I could be wrong but if that's the case Carolina would be the target.

That's my fear, Nickushkin is 3rd on my list of forwards and I think he is the most likely of the 3 to get. I'm really hoping we can get up to 4 or 5 to ensure that we get Nich. We could go D with 16 but I'm going to go for the flashier route and say find a way to get Domi as well. My semi realistic dream draft is Nich and Domi. Our future forwards are as follows:

Ennis-Hodgson-Vanek
Nich-Grigorenko-Domi
Leino-Girgensons-Armia
Foligno-Larsson-Ott

These wouldn't be the lines but there is a very good mix of size, skill and tenacity in the lineup. A trade may have to be made for a dman in this scenario(maybe lose Leino) but I love the look of it.

SabresFan26 06-10-2013 09:30 PM

The only guys I would trade up for are

MacKinnon
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm

In that order...
All these guys should be top line guys. I could see Colorado, Tampa, and Nashville listening to offers at least but they would likely be silly to give up any of those guys. MacKinnon is the best player since Tavares to get drafted.

DJN21 06-10-2013 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonnEbunny (Post 67317579)
That's my fear, Nickushkin is 3rd on my list of forwards and I think he is the most likely of the 3 to get. I'm really hoping we can get up to 4 or 5 to ensure that we get Nich. We could go D with 16 but I'm going to go for the flashier route and say find a way to get Domi as well. My semi realistic dream draft is Nich and Domi. Our future forwards are as follows:

Ennis-Hodgson-Vanek
Nich-Grigorenko-Domi
Leino-Girgensons-Armia
Foligno-Larsson-Ott

These wouldn't be the lines but there is a very good mix of size, skill and tenacity in the lineup. A trade may have to be made for a dman in this scenario(maybe lose Leino) but I love the look of it.

That projects as the highest scoring 4th line in the league and if Leino is still on this team when all those guys are ready something is wrong and/or if hes here he shouldnt be above..anyone on that 4th line.

sonnEbunny 06-10-2013 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJN21 (Post 67317857)
That projects as the highest scoring 4th line in the league and if Leino is still on this team when all those guys are ready something is wrong and/or if hes here he shouldnt be above..anyone on that 4th line.

I agree that's why I said those wouldn't be the lines, a trade might need to happen like I mentioned but it is a good thing to have too many top 6/top 9 players. Depth is important in a prospect pool because it is unlikely that all of those players will actually reach their potential. Not too long ago everyone was talking about Luke Adam and he has since fallen off.

DJN21 06-10-2013 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonnEbunny (Post 67318823)
I agree that's why I said those wouldn't be the lines, a trade might need to happen like I mentioned but it is a good thing to have too many top 6/top 9 players. Depth is important in a prospect pool because it is unlikely that all of those players will actually reach their potential. Not too long ago everyone was talking about Luke Adam and he has since fallen off.

Just out of curiosity(dont mean this to come off as a jerk question at all), where do you see Tropp on this team? he's not on your projected roster and frankly I think his upside is anywhere from 2nd line to 4th and with his sandpaper and ideal 4th line abilities I was curious why he was omitted. Again I know tone is hard to tell on the internet Im really just generally curious not aggressive lol.

Chainshot 06-10-2013 10:05 PM

I don't like Nickushkin enough to want them burning assets to move up for him.

DJN21 06-10-2013 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chainshot (Post 67319909)
I don't like Nickushkin enough to want them burning assets to move up for him.

definitely agree though if he fell to 8....boy oh boy what a decision.

SabresFan26 06-10-2013 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chainshot (Post 67319909)
I don't like Nickushkin enough to want them burning assets to move up for him.

agreed although I highly consider him at 8

wunderpanda 06-10-2013 10:31 PM

The only player I want to trade up for is Nichushkin. If he isn't available at 8 I wouldn't mind trading down and acquiring extra picks or prospects. :)

Rhett4 06-10-2013 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPurp26 (Post 67317611)
The only guys I would trade up for are

MacKinnon
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm

In that order...
All these guys should be top line guys. I could see Colorado, Tampa, and Nashville listening to offers at least but they would likely be silly to give up any of those guys. MacKinnon is the best player since Tavares to get drafted.

I'm with you. I'd only move up for those four guys, and I'd give up far less to move up the couple spots likely required to nab Lindholm compared to the others. For MacKinnon or Barkov, I'd trade away half the roster, the logo rug, Jessie Pegula, Kevin Sylvester (salary dump), and Rj's suspenders.

sonnEbunny 06-10-2013 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJN21 (Post 67319843)
Just out of curiosity(dont mean this to come off as a jerk question at all), where do you see Tropp on this team? he's not on your projected roster and frankly I think his upside is anywhere from 2nd line to 4th and with his sandpaper and ideal 4th line abilities I was curious why he was omitted. Again I know tone is hard to tell on the internet Im really just generally curious not aggressive lol.

No I agree with you. I think that he has a very good shot at the lineup, he likely would have seen significant time this year had it not been for his injury. What I was basically looking at is what we have invested in the players as far as money or higher end draft picks. I mentioned that it was likely over crowded and we would need a trade or potentially a buyout of Leino In order to go to a more traditional lineup. I will say, a few years down the road we do have a lot more gritty type of players so there will be plenty of competition but, I do see him as a 4th liner in the future. You also have the option to slide him up the lineup if needed. I just believe that our vets, 1st and 2nd rounders are going to have the first shot at playing top playing time. Say we got Nich and Domi since that was the original post I would have to think you're looking at Foligno, Ennis, Hodgson, Grigorenko, Larsson, Girgensons, Armia, Nich and Domi for your top 9 that's assuming Vanek, Ott, Stafford and Leino are all gone. It gets crowded fast I just see a couple trades happening to bring in more defensive talent to sure up our back end and make room for a more traditional 3rd/4th line.


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