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Anthony Mauro 05-30-2005 10:57 AM

Assessing Hypo Crosby Trade
 
Who knows what the outcome of the next lottery will be. If the Rangers do get the number one pick by god's graces, it would be an amazing and indescribeable happening. Now if we dont, some deep soul searching needs to be done to figure out which way to go. I am of the thinking that right now, the Rangers NEED Crosby more than any other time. (NOTE: Did not say we need him more than any other team). There is no more Richter, no Leetch, and most importantly no Messier on offense. We need an identity on offense like other teams have their own. Kovalchuk, Nash, Ovechkin, Hossa, Heatley, in the past Forsberg, Lindros, Sakic, etc. Right now, Jessiman, Korpikoski, Immonen plus others is a decent crop of forwards but none that stick out as sure bets. If the day of the draft comes around and the Rangers dont have the 2005 #1 overall, they best try their damndest to get it.

Now on to the next part which is determining what magnitude of assets we'd have to give up. I feel the last guy to come along who had a trade situation where we can look back up with the hype like Crosby is Lindros.

Trade:

Eric Lindros
for
1991 #6 overall(Peter Forsberg 18 y/o at the time who put up 23-7-10-17-22 PIM in MODO of SEL)
Mike Ricci (20 yr, soph at time 78-20-36-56-93PIM in NHL)
Steve Duchesne (26 yr,6 yr vet 78-18-56-86PIM in NHL as d-man)
Kerry Huffman (23 yr dman 60-14-18-32-41PIM)
Ron Hextall (27 yr,4 yr NHL vet below .500 avg with .883 sv %)
Chris Simon (had just finished his 4th yr in junior)
2 1st overall picks( Not entirely sure, but turned out as either Deadmarsh/Thibault and Belak/Kealty)
$15 million(insignificant)

Now comes the part where you have to distinguish the potential value of a Lindros v. Crosby. Crosby no doubt is a Gretzky-type. However, Lindros was a whole new different breed of a player. Absolute Mammoth who had the nimble skills of a little man. IMO Lindros' package slightly outvalues Crosby's. It seems like it will be a hard task for Rangers to trade for the number one if they even consider it.

Sidney Crosby
for
2005 1st round(#2-anywhere, would be #7=to Forsberg)
Fedor Tyutin
Al Montoya
Hugh Jessiman
Jamie Lundmark
2nd rounder

Thats a ****load and I dont even think it comes near to what Philly gave up for Lindros. Would a deal for the 2005 number one be around the same value or have times changed? And, what would your realistic Ranger proposal be?

Fletch 05-30-2005 11:37 AM

You're not going to see..
 
A Lindros-type deal done again. Nothing close to it. Since you put it on paper, now you know how ridiculous such a transaction would be.

What would be fair? I'm not 100% sure at this point, but it would be a seller's market, and wouldn't be buying.

FLYLine24 05-30-2005 11:45 AM

I wouldnt do that in a second, if we dont get the top pick then we dont get Crosby, but if we get a 12th overall pick then I hope Sather does something to trade down to hopefully 3-4. Brule or Johnson i would love to have as well..plus we wouldnt have to trade away more then half of our top prospects.

Anthony Mauro 05-30-2005 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FLYLine4LIFE
I wouldnt do that in a second, if we dont get the top pick then we dont get Crosby, but if we get a 12th overall pick then I hope Sather does something to trade down to hopefully 3-4. Brule or Johnson i would love to have as well..plus we wouldnt have to trade away more then half of our top prospects.

The way I see it is there are a few dropoffs and a section where the difference in value is neglible.

Crosby
-------
Johnson
Brule
Kopitar
Ryan
Pouliot
-------
Latendresse
Staal
Bourret
O'Marra
Skille
McArdle
Zagrapan
Hanzal
Bertram
Rask
Price
Bergfors
Parent
Stoa
Setoguchi
Bourdon

IMO pick 21/22 is not that different than 7. If we could get another top 22 pick using the seconds, while trading down from our first and possibly adding a pick to next years draft I'd be elated.

NYRangers 05-30-2005 12:07 PM

Just because Crosby is a good player doesn't mean we need to trade the farm for him, theres no reason to.

barrel_master 05-30-2005 12:15 PM

Yes, Crosby is one man, he can't win a cup on his own.

Trottier 05-30-2005 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balej's Dance
Sidney Crosby
for
2005 1st round(#2-anywhere, would be #7=to Forsberg)
Fedor Tyutin
Al Montoya
Hugh Jessiman
Jamie Lundmark
2nd rounder

The team on the other end of that deal is not getting a single ready-for-primetime NHLer, other than perhaps Tyutin. (Sorry, Lundmark is decidely fringe at this point.) Anyone silly enough to trade Crosby would demand futures and present talent.

NYR469 05-30-2005 12:17 PM

the price to trade up will be way too high, and if you'd actually consider trading that package you proposed then all i can say is thank god you aren't the gm

pld459666 05-30-2005 12:22 PM

I'm thinking the same thing
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Balej's Dance
The way I see it is there are a few dropoffs and a section where the difference in value is neglible.

Crosby
-------
Johnson
Brule
Kopitar
Ryan
Pouliot
-------
Latendresse
Staal
Bourret
O'Marra
Skille
McArdle
Zagrapan
Hanzal
Bertram
Rask
Price
Bergfors
Parent
Stoa
Setoguchi
Bourdon

IMO pick 21/22 is not that different than 7. If we could get another top 22 pick using the seconds, while trading down from our first and possibly adding a pick to next years draft I'd be elated.

If we do not get the #1 overall, and we have a top 5 pick already, then I would hope that Sather could somehow finagle another top 5 pick and grab Bobby Ryan and Johnson.

If we were to walk away from the entry draft with 2 top 5 selections, I would consider this a great draft, Sid or no.

Anthony Mauro 05-30-2005 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYR469
the price to trade up will be way too high, and if you'd actually consider trading that package you proposed then all i can say is thank god you aren't the gm

I acknowledged that the cost to get Crosby was high and I just compared the Lindros deal. What's your point about thanking god Im not the gm? Any other team who wants a shot at Crosby will have to pony up a package like the one I suggested, even more. Are you gonna fault a GM for wanting Crosby? I certainly wouldn't, and I wouldn't take shots at his intelligence either. Did you see the package Kovalchuk was garnering? And he isnt even near the level of hype/talent of Crosby, yet Montreal was still knocking on ATL's door.

NYR469 05-30-2005 12:51 PM

fault them for wanting crosby? no...fault them for being stupid enough to trade away the entire farm system for 1 player? absolutely...

i want crosby on broadway more than anything, but you can't afford to give up everything to get him...if we don't win the lottery then you take the best player you can get and after we are awful again next year you get another top pick in 2006.

Anthony Mauro 05-30-2005 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYR469
fault them for wanting crosby? no...fault them for being stupid enough to trade away the entire farm system for 1 player? absolutely...

i want crosby on broadway more than anything, but you can't afford to give up everything to get him...if we don't win the lottery then you take the best player you can get and after we are awful again next year you get another top pick in 2006.

Agreed. Next year is has a very enticing crop of forwards that would be a great addition to pld's scenario.

Imagine upcoming Rangers drafts:

2005
Jack Johnson
Bobby Ryan

2006
Phil Kessel/Michal Frolik/Peter Mueller/Jesse Joensuu/Alex Vasyunov

bsenskmolson 05-30-2005 01:55 PM

Is this lottery gonna actually happen? If it does I don't see anyone trading away that #1 pick.....

Barnaby 05-30-2005 09:36 PM

2005 1st round(#2-anywhere, would be #7=to Forsberg)
Fedor Tyutin
Al Montoya
Hugh Jessiman
Jamie Lundmark
2nd rounder

If you could take Tyutin out or replace him with a D prospect not named Kondratiev then I'd make the deal. Jessiman is a question mark, Montoya would be tradeable with HL in the organization. Lundmark and a 2nd rounder are loose changed compared to a first line center.

The winner wouldn't take that package tho, I don't see the Riccia,Forsberg combo going over. You could easily walk away with only one of Montoya or Jessiman really becoming quality players, and a 1st rounder who certainly isnt the quality of a Crosby. Plus, who wants to be the guy who may have traded the next 99 or Sakic? You'd have to get back a much surer package...

NYR1724 05-30-2005 09:58 PM

Sidney Crosby
for
2005 1st round(#2-anywhere, would be #7=to Forsberg)
Fedor Tyutin
Al Montoya
Hugh Jessiman
Jamie Lundmark
2nd rounder

The only player I really do not like trading in that deal is Fedor Tyutin. Jessiman is still a project as the poster above mentioned and with Henrik Lundqvist, Montoya is somewhat expendable. However I would not be in favor of the Rangers making this trade. Thats a lot of talent to be giving up for one player. I'd rather get say Jack Johnson and then have a high pick next season to grab Kessel. But we all know the Rangers are going to win that damn Lottery anyway :)

monster_bertuzzi 05-31-2005 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balej's Dance
The way I see it is there are a few dropoffs and a section where the difference in value is neglible.

Crosby
-------
Johnson
Brule
Kopitar
Ryan
Pouliot
-------
Latendresse
Staal
Bourret
O'Marra
Skille
McArdle
Zagrapan
Hanzal
Bertram
Rask
Price
Bergfors
Parent
Stoa
Setoguchi
Bourdon

IMO pick 21/22 is not that different than 7. If we could get another top 22 pick using the seconds, while trading down from our first and possibly adding a pick to next years draft I'd be elated.

Id say it's more like:

Crosby
------
Brule
Johnson
------
Pouliot
Kopitar
Ryan
------



Zagrapan
Bourret
Latendresse
Skille
O'Marra

And then another huge dropoff...

Skroob* 05-31-2005 04:21 PM

why has Latendresse fallen so far? A year ago some people said he was almost a lock at #2.

Barnaby 05-31-2005 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skroob
why has Latendresse fallen so far? A year ago some people said he was almost a lock at #2.

Injuries, inconsistency... I wouldn't be surprised if he still went top 10 though due to his size... he has a pro hockey build already...

Fletch 05-31-2005 05:07 PM

Didn't Latendresse..
 
play more games in '04-'05 than in '03-04 and have a greater points per game average (1.2 vs. .92)? Sounds less injury problematic and possibly more consistent (depending on the distribution of scoring, of course) than the previous year.

Barnaby 05-31-2005 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fletch
play more games in '04-'05 than in '03-04 and have a greater points per game average (1.2 vs. .92)? Sounds less injury problematic and possibly more consistent (depending on the distribution of scoring, of course) than the previous year.

I heard he suffered through some stuff, but I could be wrong. Consistency killed him, apparently he can dominate at times, and just not get it done on other occasions. He's certainly fallen since his projection last year, but he's big with hands and we know how much teams love that combo.

BigE 05-31-2005 06:17 PM

What's wrong with getting a guy like Johnson this year and Kessel or Frolik next year? Nothing.

If we don't win the lottery you take the best available player and if that happens to be a goaltender, you trade down. We're going to be horse**** next year and a top 5 pick is nearly guaranteed (I cringe at the thought of Dolan signing just enough guys to make us a mediocre, non-playoff team. :(). There's no sense in breaking the bank to get Crosby if we can't accomodate him with anyone other than Garth Murray and Jed Ortmeyer. ;)

Barnaby 05-31-2005 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigE
What's wrong with getting a guy like Johnson this year and Kessel or Frolik next year? Nothing.

If we don't win the lottery you take the best available player and if that happens to be a goaltender, you trade down. We're going to be horse**** next year and a top 5 pick is nearly guaranteed (I cringe at the thought of Dolan signing just enough guys to make us a mediocre, non-playoff team. :(). There's no sense in breaking the bank to get Crosby if we can't accomodate him with anyone other than Garth Murray and Jed Ortmeyer. ;)

Nothing IF that actually happens. If we don't get into the top 3 we won't even get Johnson. We could easily slide to tenth or something with the most talked about systems.

Assuming we are bad enough to be in the lottery in 06' how can you guarantee we'll pick 1 or 2 to get Kessel or Frolik?

It all sounds like a nice theory, but we could easily walk away with Pouliot/Kopitar/Skille and then a guy like Mueller next year. That's not bad, it is very conceivable we don't pick top 5 this or next draft, tho we would be quite close next draft...

Skroob* 05-31-2005 09:22 PM

thanks for the Latendresse info.


Not that we'd ever be lucky enough where we would be in the position to choose, but if the choice was Crosby or Johnson & Kessel, i pick the latter.

AG9NK35DT8* 06-01-2005 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FLYLine4LIFE
I wouldnt do that in a second, if we dont get the top pick then we dont get Crosby, but if we get a 12th overall pick then I hope Sather does something to trade down to hopefully 3-4. Brule or Johnson i would love to have as well..plus we wouldnt have to trade away more then half of our top prospects.

I agree with you 100% well put and absolutley the truth.

Anthony Mauro 06-01-2005 04:44 PM

Yes, after reading the replies and thoughts I dont think it would be a very good idea to offer a package like that for one player. I for one would love to go into the next season with two "stud-like" goalie prospects, two top tier (or respectably close) defense prospects, a slew of 11 or so prospects that could pan out astop 6 forwards and another 14 that could become solid 3rd-4th liners. We have gained tremendous depth in many areas of the organization, and have added difference makers.

Guys like Jessiman, Korpikoski, Dawes, Balej, Immonen, Prucha, Graham, Olver, Roche, Petruzalek, Crabb all have a chance at adding fireworks to our offense and take up top 6 forward spots. Whether a few actually pan out remains to be seen, but Id rather give them the chance then pawn them off right now when they are real mysteries as NHL'ers. We have future homegrown energy guys, heart and soul guys that can be placed on the third and fourth line who will compliment the offensive guys so well, and even enjoy doing it. Guys like Hollweg, Murray, D. Moore, Ortmeyer, Giroux, Callahan, Dubinsky, Kozak, Byers, Helminen, G.Moore, Foote, Walsh.

Then there are absolute mysteries in Ryan, Psurny, Bahensky who could either turn out as offensive stars or flop off the hockey radar. On defense, there's Tyutin, Kondratiev, and Lampman as solid guys who are more known, reliable yet still young in their own right. The rest are lunchpail, hard hat type of defenders who I absolutely love that the Rangers have. Guenin, Taylor, Liffiton, Baranka are four guys any team would want to have in their org.

For all this, I'd want the Rangers to gamble on greatness. Whether that means picking number two and choosing Jack Johnson, picking 3-5 and choosing Bobby Ryan, or picking 5-10 and choosing a wildcard...they must take a chance to add someone with flair and snazz.

(Or we can augment to our pretty good prospect pool with just plain old hockey players and churn out NHL'ers from the draft year after year ala NJ with Gomez, Hale, Martin, Gionta, Parise, Zajac etc)


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