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-   -   Value of: What Makes Trade Value? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1471577)

djdub 07-18-2013 05:32 PM

What Makes Trade Value?
 
So the Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk is probably my favorite forum on HFBoards, I check it many times daily to see up to date news on trades and signings, I like to see proposals fans make up and how people on this forum value players. So, I got thinking, what makes trade value? What factors do you bring into the picture when evaluating how much a player is worth relative to another?

Here are some I've come up with off the top of my head:

Contract $$$
Contract Cap Hit
Contract Length
Player Age
Draft Status (Diminishing as player ages)
Stats
Advanced Stats?
Attitude?
Public Image?
Nationality?
Streaky(ness)?
Highest Point Totals?

How much of these attributes do you think an NHL GM and His Staff consider if any, besides contract status and statistics.

Trade value is something that is heavily and furiously disputed on this forum so I thought it would be neat to get a discussion going on about it.

Sorry if this has already been discussed or if I am posting this in the wrong spot. Mod please move or delete if that is the case.

hlaverty06 07-18-2013 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djdub (Post 69358973)
So the Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk is probably my favorite forum on HFBoards, I check it many times daily to see up to date news on trades and signings, I like to see proposals fan make up on how people on this forum value players. So, I got thinking, what makes trade value? What factors do you bring into the picture when evaluating how much a player is worth relative to another?

Here are some I've come up with off the top of my head:

Contract $$$
Contract Cap Hit
Contract Length
Player Age

Draft Status (Diminishing as player ages)
Stats
Advanced Stats?
Attitude?
Public Image?
Nationality?
Streaky(ness)?

How much of these attributes do you think an NHL GM and His Staff consider if any, besides contract status and statistics.

Trade value is something that is heavily and furiously disputed on this forum so I thought it would be neat to get a discussion going on about it.

Sorry if this has already been discussed or if I am posting this in the wrong spot. Mod please move or delete if that is the case.

Bold I say yes
Underline I think they SHOULD consider those but dont always do
Italic I dont really think so

crowi 07-18-2013 05:35 PM

Demand? After that contract length I guess and so forth.

Halibut 07-18-2013 05:46 PM

First thing you have to consider as a gm is how would this player fit on my team/where would he fit into my lineup. All those other things are pretty much secondary. Then you have to figure out what do I have that I can give up without creating a huge hole in my lineup.

Looking at stats and advanced stats, considering salaries, they can help you figure out the answers to those questions but they're only tools. It's all about where they fit on the team.

Rorschach 07-18-2013 05:58 PM

Player position/role is missing from your criteria. Except for arguably generational talents, centers will be worth more than wings across the board. #1 RH, two-way PMDs are worth more than any other defensemen and most other positional players.

cgf 07-18-2013 05:59 PM

The point where one team is willing to part with a player and another team is willing pay to acquire that player.

AslanRH 07-18-2013 06:38 PM

If I am a GM (which I am online of course)
I'd have 2 stages, especially when deciding between multiple Targets/Offers

Initial evaluation
Organizational Need
Playing Style (fits in system, complements existing team)
Stats
Contract Cap Hit
Contract Length
Player's Floor<--- likely to end up--->Ceiling

Secondary Evaluation
Cost to Obtain (Value in vs Value out)
Player Age
Contract $$$
Attitude
Advanced Stats

Would likely not use for Evaluation
Streaky(ness)?
Public Image?
Highest Point Totals?
Nationality?
Draft Status (Diminishing as player ages)

Riptide 07-18-2013 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djdub (Post 69358973)
So the Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk is probably my favorite forum on HFBoards, I check it many times daily to see up to date news on trades and signings, I like to see proposals fans make up and how people on this forum value players. So, I got thinking, what makes trade value? What factors do you bring into the picture when evaluating how much a player is worth relative to another?

Here are some I've come up with off the top of my head:

Contract $$$
Contract Cap Hit
Contract Length
Player Age
Draft Status (Diminishing as player ages)
Stats
Advanced Stats?
Attitude?
Public Image?
Nationality?
Streaky(ness)?
Highest Point Totals?

How much of these attributes do you think an NHL GM and His Staff consider if any, besides contract status and statistics.

Trade value is something that is heavily and furiously disputed on this forum so I thought it would be neat to get a discussion going on about it.

Sorry if this has already been discussed or if I am posting this in the wrong spot. Mod please move or delete if that is the case.


What I don't see in here, is the perceived need of the player a GM is trying to acquire, vs the needs of the team who has the player.

A couple trades illustrate this. The Neal/Gogo trade. Pits had a surplus of young PMD, but was weak in wingers. Dallas had a need for a PMD and had a strong forward group. Perron/MPS. Edmonton needed a better top six, STL had enough top 6 players that they could afford to move one for a NHL ready prospect with upside. The Ryan trade is similar to this. Ottawa was deep in prospects, while needing/wanting an impact first line winger. Anaheim shed salary, and acquired a pick, a NHL ready winger with upside and a quality prospect.

Those are a couple of the more obvious ones I remember. But value is highly subjective, and greatly differs depending on the team and their needs, and the type of player they're trying to acquire, and the team they're trying to acquire him from. A team deep in wingers will have placed a lower value them (in the sense that they can afford to move one in the right deal) than a team who has a shortage of wingers.

BigDaddyLurch 07-18-2013 06:48 PM

CHARACTER!!!


:laugh:

NeutralZone 07-18-2013 07:03 PM

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned size or physicality yet. "Small" and "soft" are possibly the most common words used when putting down the return on a proposed trade.

Riptide 07-18-2013 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeutralZone (Post 69362773)
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned size or physicality yet. "Small" and "soft" are possibly the most common words used when putting down the return on a proposed trade.

Didn't seem to be an issue when trading MPS/Perron. Fans seem to place a higher value on that than the GMs do - to an extent anyways.

allan5oh 07-18-2013 07:15 PM

By far the largest factor is the contract vs the player. If you have two players with exactly the same stats, size,etc. Yet one has a garbage contract and the other one is a steal, which one is worth more? It also depends on the time of year which is demand. Rentals are worth more at the deadline than they are right now.

Another often overlooked piece is waiver eligibility. The jets have two similar rhd at the same age and development, yet postma needs to clear waivers and Redmond doesn't. Therefore Redmond has more trade value.

Deen 07-18-2013 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 69363241)
By far the largest factor is the contract vs the player. If you have two players with exactly the same stats, size,etc. Yet one has a garbage contract and the other one is a steal, which one is worth more? It also depends on the time of year which is demand. Rentals are worth more at the deadline than they are right now.

Another often overlooked piece is waiver eligibility. The jets have two similar rhd at the same age and development, yet postma needs to clear waivers and Redmond doesn't. Therefore Redmond has more trade value.

I think potential plays a big factor along with this.

Trafalgar McLaw 07-18-2013 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deen (Post 69363737)
I think potential plays a big factor along with this.

Judging by your posts in the Pavelski thread. I think you have less credibility than any other poster in this thread.

Bernier the Boats 07-18-2013 07:36 PM

Contract+past performance+potential for future growth

lifeisruff 07-18-2013 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halibut (Post 69359519)
First thing you have to consider as a gm is how would this player fit on my team/where would he fit into my lineup. All those other things are pretty much secondary. Then you have to figure out what do I have that I can give up without creating a huge hole in my lineup.

.

This is the big one, Ryan Getzlaf may be one of the best centers in the league, but his trade value to Pittsburg is nearly zilch. He'd get burried on the third line or play out of position and therefore Pittsburg won't get the maximum value out of his paycheck, skillset or what Anaheim would require to trade him.

There was a rumor some Sabres fans (on another message board) were talking about which had Matt Moulson and a first going to Buffalo for Vanek, now on one hand a year of Moulson and a 1st might be equal to the value that of a year of Vanek (probably not but lets go with it) it does not have significant value to the Sabres, because why would a rebuilding team trade one player at the end of his contract for another player at the end of his contract. A 1st round pick and a second rate propsect would be more valuable because at least we will control that prospect's rights through next year.

Matching our wants and assets to what other teams wants and assts is what makes this board fun.

lakai17 07-18-2013 09:29 PM

I'm glad you asked.

Value in any trade = overall status + contract value + age + position depth to a team

Moller 07-18-2013 11:04 PM

Injury history should be added to the list unless I missed it. On my tiny blackberry screen :(

leaflover 07-18-2013 11:07 PM

Necessity.

sully1410 07-18-2013 11:11 PM

I would have to say the seller's cap situation has a lot to do with value. If they need to drop a player, then the value is not as high. However of they don't need to make te trade then they can wait for a better offer.

Viqsi 07-19-2013 10:28 AM

Perhaps it would be easiest to say that "trade value" is NOT in any way equivalent to the sum of any given hypothetical player values.

The big mistake I keep seeing from folks in this forum - and which appears to be present in the assumptions behind the OP's creation of this thread - is assuming that there's some sort of "conversion rate" for players such that you can assess their individual "value" in a trade - say, today Evgeni Malkin is worth 100 as a baseline, Rick Nash is worth 85 because he "loses points" for not being as good a scorer, Tyler Bozak is now worth 52 because he "lost points" because of his contract, and Colton Orr is worth 19 because he's a fourth-liner and "they're not worth as much". This is a fallacy, and it is the leading cause of Bad Trade Proposals. Player value is not and cannot be an assignable constant. If you operate on this premise, You Will Fail.

If you simply can't operate without some sort of Universal Scale, then you have no business making proposals here at least do yourself a favor and start tracking two such values - one to the rest of the NHL, and one to the team that currently has that player under contract. This isn't a perfect solution, but it will at least prevent some of the more embarrassing proposal mistakes. If you can pull that off, consider trying to track values like that for each and every team, rather than grouping 29 other teams into one category. That'll also help.

But the plain and simple truth is that there is no Universal Scale Of Player Trade Value. Roster makeup is so nuanced that there simply can't be, and any GM operating as though there was one is going to be a crappy GM. Good GMs don't look to just maximize some hypothetical "total player value" metric and call that Good Enough; they have to assemble a team, and that means balancing all sorts of factors that a single metric simply can't encompass. It just is what it is.

CarvinSigX 07-19-2013 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riptide (Post 69363191)
Didn't seem to be an issue when trading MPS/Perron. Fans seem to place a higher value on that than the GMs do - to an extent anyways.

To be honest, the smaller player in that deal plays much larger than the big player.

orby 07-19-2013 11:20 AM

Players for teams you like have immense trade value. Conversely, players for teams you DON'T like have much less value. Division rivals' players have basically no value whatsoever.

Lukus 07-19-2013 11:28 AM

There are so many factors that come into play in trying to assign a value to a player that this thread is really useless as it can only list the factors but the priority order of those factors is different from team to team and from player to player involved and from one transaction to the other.

Close her up!

Kris Chreider 07-19-2013 11:55 AM

Intangibles :sarcasm:


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