50 points, the hard way ...
Well, it is that time of year when we all take guesses at how well the players will produce. Taking a stab at how many goals and points these Oiler players will create.
Which brings up a pet peeve of mine. I think sometimes we get a bit too optimistic, especially for guys who won't see much powerplay time. Sometimes maybe our expectations are a smidge unrealistic.
I've seen a lot of people peg Horcoff as a 50 to 60 point guy ... yet he doesn't feature on anybody's expected 1st PP unit.
These are the players who managed to score 50 points, at even strength, during last season.
Peter Forsberg _____ 71
Joe Thornton _______ 64
Milan Hejduk _______ 61
Glen Murray ________ 61
Pavol Demitra ______ 57
Zigmund Palffy _____ 55
Todd Bertuzzi ______ 55
Sergei Fedorov _____ 52
Alex Tanguay _______ 51
Mike Modano ________ 51
Vincent Lecavalier _ 51
Markus Naslund _____ 50
Its an even dozen. And two or three (Tanguay and Murray for sure) wouldn't have made this list if not for the fact that they were playing with star players.
It is a pretty impressive list of players, no?
And as much as I like Horcoff, Reasoner, Chimera, etc ... realistically they don't really belong in the same neighbourhood, production-wise, as the players on the list above.
IMO if Horcoff can be a solid + player, say +10 to +15 at 5on5 hockey. Sharing duty between the 2nd and 4th lines. And score 35 points at even strength, maybe a handful more on special teams, say 5 .... then that's a helluva year for Shawn. 40 pts, EV+/- of +12.
For Reasoner ... if he's facing tough opposition regularly this season, like MGM used to do in the past; then 30 points at 5on5, and any EV+/- on the good side of zero qualifies as an excellent year for him IMO.
And if Chimera can just become a more reliable player defensively, without sacrificing offense too much, I'll be really happy. 10 goals, 10 assists and a EV+/- of +5 or so ... that would be just great to get that from Chimmer.
Anyhoo, that's my two cents. It does make some sense though, no?
Seems reasonable. I think 35-40 points is solid for Horcoff, that would be a good season. If we line up his yearly stats, he's still moving forward in terms of playing time and points scored, and although I doubt he'll have a complete hold on a 2line job this season, his ability to play center should mean some minutes with talented wingers.
Reasoner could probably reach that, but his role on the 3line will mean he has other worries that come before offense.
yeah i agree with pretty much all you had to say there. it amazesme when i talk to people at the beginning of te NHL season as to what people expect of certain players. and almost *always* people expect entirely too much of players... i guess its that preverbial pre-season optimism
heres what i would be happy with for the majority of our players, and remember this is what i would be HAPPY with, not what im expecting, what im expecting is actually significantly lower than these numbers:
smyth - 70 points
york - 70
dvorak - 60
hemsky - 50
isbister - 50
horcoff - 45
reasoner - 40
chimera - 35
moreau - 35
laraque - 25
brewer - 35
semenov - 25
bergeron - 25
smith - 20
cross - 15
ferguson - 15
im not gonna bother with the kids because i dont know who will be playing or not at this time
While fun to speculate what players may or may not achieve in point totals during the season, I think it focuses undue attention on often unrealistic individual expectations, particularly with Horcoff and Hemsky.
It is still a team game. If they bond together as a team and play hard, fast and competitive, I could give a whit whether certain players get 80 points or 20.
LOL... who am I kidding. I want them to entertain me every game and make it to the dance at the end of the season. No expectations at all!
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