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Irish Blues 10-03-2003 06:52 AM

Goaltending study? - looking for help
 
Since everyone here rants and raves about goaltending, I've decided to (try and) actually take a look at the one statistic most people want to point to when judging the ability (or lack of) of a goalie: save percentage.

I want to study something specific about it....what are the save percentages of goalies against "good" shots and "bad" shots - are they the same across the board or not? So I'm looking for some people who wouldn't mind helping me keep track of this during the season.

What I need is someone from each team to keep track of "good" shots and "bad" shots that a goalie faces - for the purpose of doing this, a "good" shot is one taken from the area bounded by the crease out to the faceoff dots in front, and across and a "bad" shot" is any other shot (from the blueline, right in front, along the boards, etc.). I need to know what happened on each shot - was it stopped or not? Was it deflected before it got to the goalie? If possible, where was it shot in relation to the goalie - high stick side, five-hole, etc. ? I don't need this for *every* game (and I don't expect it since I know not every game is televised) but if I can get roughly 1/5 of the games throughout the season that should be enough to be accurate.

If you're interested, post here and I'll get in touch with you over the weekend to try and set things up. Again....I don't need every game but if you don't mind sitting with a pad of paper, a pencil and the remote control and killing a few hours to help out, I'd really appreciate it.

IB

Trottier 10-03-2003 07:22 AM

Just a quick observation.

When you say "the one statistic most people want to point to when judging the ability (or lack of) of a goalie: save percentage," on what is your claim based?

I respectfully question whether, in fact, that really is the case among people paid to make personnel decisions.

PecaFan 10-03-2003 12:57 PM

I think he's correct. A few years ago, you *never* heard a GM talk about save percentage. It was always goals against average. Now, I hear GM's talk about save percentage all the time.

As for the study, I seriously question the rating of good shot/ bad shot by zone only. A Donald Brashear limp wrister from the face off dot is a hard shot to stop while an Al Macinnis 100+ mph slap shot from the point through a screen on the power play is a bad goal?

There is no objective standard you can use for good shot / bad shot. Much like pornography "you know it when you see it". You need to give your contributors more freedom than "it was from the point, bad goal."

Personally, I think rating shots like this is unnecessary. With goalies facing 1800 to 2000 shots a year, any small variances in the number of high quality scoring chances faced is dwarfed by the total shots. Essentially, all goalies get easy shots, all goalies get tough shots. Not to mention that what's tough for one goalie is often easy for another. Some have great glove hands, so a high glove shot is an easy save for them. Some have trouble on wrap arounds, so that's a tough shot for them, but easy for others, etc.

Best of luck, it's a massive project.

Irish Blues 10-04-2003 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trottier
Just a quick observation.

When you say "the one statistic most people want to point to when judging the ability (or lack of) of a goalie: save percentage," on what is your claim based?

I respectfully question whether, in fact, that really is the case among people paid to make personnel decisions.

When you look at the discussions on goaltending that go on here at HF, a lot of people point to save percentage as a "critical" stat in measuring the ability of a goalie. That's what I mean when I say "most people".

I think that it (save percentage) is more a reflection of the defense in front of the goalie and the quantity (and quality) of shots he faces, but to my knowledge there hasn't been a study that examines save percentage. You can see what a baseball player's BA is with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs, but there's nothing comparable that exists in hockey. So.....I'm wanting to do something to look at save percentage and see what really is valid and what isn't.

Irish Blues 10-04-2003 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PecaFan
As for the study, I seriously question the rating of good shot/ bad shot by zone only. A Donald Brashear limp wrister from the face off dot is a hard shot to stop while an Al Macinnis 100+ mph slap shot from the point through a screen on the power play is a bad goal?

There is no objective standard you can use for good shot / bad shot. Much like pornography "you know it when you see it". You need to give your contributors more freedom than "it was from the point, bad goal."

If I can get people to volunteer, I'll ask for that info as part of the data - that way I can sort things out across lots of criteria. On the surface, I want to distinguish shots based on the area on the ice where the shot is taken, but yes - ultimately I want to chart things like type of shot, was it screened, and such things.

And yes.....it's potentially a massive project - which is why I'm looking for a little help. All I need is some people to collect data for some games, I'll do all the data crunching from there.

marcel 10-04-2003 12:21 PM

ok question, if they hit the post is it a good shot or bad?does the shot have to be on goal the goal tender standing on his head to make the save to be classified as a good shot?

on the after game call in show on CJAD a caller
TIto says "i think they should retire gino odjuicks number 29 because he sticks up for his team mates and he fought P.J Stock"

that's got to be the quote of the year !lol ,or that quote has to goto the quote hall of fame..lol

Irish Blues 10-06-2003 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marcel
ok question, if they hit the post is it a good shot or bad?does the shot have to be on goal the goal tender standing on his head to make the save to be classified as a good shot?

NO NO NO......"good" or "bad" refers to the relative likelihood that a player will score on a shot from a given area, assuming all things are equal. Think about it....a player sitting 15 feet away between the circles has a better chance to score than a player shooting from the blueline (the goalie has less time to react on a shot that's close than one he has time to see and prepare for), thus "good" and "bad" refers to the general probability that a shot will score if all things are equal. However....since things aren't equal (shots are screened, deflected, blocked, etc.) that would be taken into account.

Saves aren't classified as "good" or "bad", the shots are classified in this way depending on the area of the ice from which they are taken. Save percentage would then be broken down based on where the shots where taken from.

Shots that hit the post don't count as a shot on goal and thus (for the purpose of this study) wouldn't be counted. (That is being saved for a later one when I look at the shots taken by every team.)


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