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-   -   Who's the odd man out next year? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=230668)

blinkman360 03-12-2006 10:03 PM

Who's the odd man out next year?
 
I think we all agree that we need to get that #1 defenceman this offseason. Whether it's Chara, McCabe, Redden or even Brewer(I THINK he's a UFA), we need somebody to stick on that top pairing with Zhitnik. But who ends up getting the shaft when we (hopefully) lock one of these guys up?

Zhitnik and the UFA are givens, and I think Grebs and Campoli are locks as well. Martinek just signed that new contract, but I would have him at the bottom of my list. Bouchard, I think, is a UFA, but I love the heart he's shown and can definately be at LEAST a very good bottom pairing guy. Erskine has also been a pleasant surprise, he's relatively young and provides size and toughness that we lack throughout the rest of the roster, so I think he's a lock to be back as well. Gervais has done a tremendous job this season in BP but could use a little more time in regards to his defensive zone play.

So minus Zhitnik, UFA, Grebs and Campoli, we have 4 players battling for 2 spots. I think the best decision would be to resign Bouchard and use him and Erskine as our bottom pairing. Use Martinek as the 7th defenceman, and give Gervais another year in BP to refine his skills and maybe fill out his frame a little bit. I'd be real confident with a core of:
1- McCabe Zhitnik
2-Grebs Campoli
3-Bouchard Erskine

hb6947 03-12-2006 10:12 PM

Seacrest say's "Bouchard out!"

boredmale 03-12-2006 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hb6947
Seacrest say's "Bouchard out!"

that would be my guess, even though he probably is our second best defenseman this year, he has that "fill in defenseman" label attached to him which unfortuntly will hurt him no matter where he plays, especially with his age.

Seph 03-12-2006 10:42 PM

Honestly, if the Isles can continue to play as they have for the remainder of the season (and with a little luck, into the playoffs) I would be curious in seeing what another year of development and getting used to playing as a unit could do for the 7 we have here.

Play out the season, if nothing's broke, don't fix it and hope that getting a little older and a little more experienced improves Campoli, Grebeshkov and Gervais, and that having play together more consistently helps the vets gel and the unit improves as a whole. Basically, I'd like to see if we can find the answers internally. But of course, if one of the parts breaks down, replace it.

islandermaniac 03-12-2006 10:58 PM

they will probably all be here and they will all have chances to play. as i don't think the isles will be successful in landing a ufa any better than what we already have.

now, if the isles were to pursue anything they should be targeting the likes of the mckee's, witts, and mitchells of the nhl. witt makes $1.672M. mckee makes $1.596. mitchell makes $1.35. i don't know what their contract demands will be, but i do know that mccabe turned down $16.25 over 4 years from the team he wants to play with. that means the isles would have to fork over at least $5M per season to get him if not more.

i am getting to your question of who stays and who goes. give me one more minute.

now, would the isles not be better off getting two of those other guys for the price of one mccabe? if that is to occur, you will be looking at a very easy answer to your question.

who stays? any d-man with a one way contract. that would mean zhitnik, mckee, mitchell (i know, dream world...just leave me be), and martinek. after that, whoever EARNS it by playing well down the stretch this year and by having a good camp next september. campoli would likely have the inside line on the next spot as he has some offensive unlike most of the guys already mentioned. that leaves grebeshkov, erskine, gervais, and bouchard for the final spot.

now, back to reality, i'll stick with my original claim that all of those players will play for the islanders in 2006-2007. injuries and slumps (which is quite likely) will see to it that the isles have all seven on the roster.

boredmale 03-12-2006 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by islandermaniac
now, would the isles not be better off getting two of those other guys for the price of one mccabe? if that is to occur, you will be looking at a very easy answer to your question.

My guess is the Islanders will get 1(not 2) second tier defensemen. If by chance we do get 2, the Erksine becomes expendable. I still think that whoever we sign will be over pirced(let's say 3 million+)

islandermaniac 03-13-2006 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boredmale
My guess is the Islanders will get 1(not 2) second tier defensemen. If by chance we do get 2, the Erksine becomes expendable. I still think that whoever we sign will be over pirced(let's say 3 million+)

when i suggested we get two, i also suggested that i was dreaming. also, if the isles target a mckee, mitchell, or witt and have to pay $3M to get him, they are fools.

even if you get one guy, you still have to keep all the current isles around. we currently have 7 d-men who could play and signing a ufa would be 8. you need at least that many capable bodies over the course of the season. so again, i think all the current guys see time on the blueline next year.

Capt Reynolds 03-13-2006 01:45 PM

I think Bouchard has played well but he does have that 'journeyman' tag. Erskine has been a bit of a suprise, but he is still little more than a 7th dman (minus-7 is just fifteen games :eek: ). I very much doubt that Grebs, Campoli and Gervais ALL will be on the team next year, as it is just too inexperienced a backline. I think the new GM will let the kids fight it out, with Campoli more or a less a lock and one of Grebs or Gervais being sent down. But a lot depends on what we do in terms of free agents and trades this offseason.

Islesman819 03-13-2006 01:49 PM

I think we need to get 1 Top tier Center and Top tier defensemen. Thats pretty much all we need...We got depth, maybe a little grit. Yashin is becoming a 3rd line banger sadly, he is trying to be like Parrish standing in front of the net..Because of this we need a new 1st/2nd line center...We can ride Satan/York/Hunter as a second line forever but I think we need a more dangerous first line. I just want Bates on the 4th line really....Heres some guys we should/could go after: Pavel Kubina, Corey Sarich, Kim Johnsson, Zdeno Chara, Wade Redden (I believe he is a Group III correct me if im wrong), Jamie LangenBrunner, Patrik Elias, Filip Kuba, Andrei Zhyuzin (sp?), Detroit's Big 3: Shannahan, Lidstrom and Yzerman are Group 3 but they would never want to come here, Jason Arnott, Willie Mithcell, Same with Sakic and Rob Blake not coming here, Daniel Briere, Maxim Afinogenov, Marc Savard, Ruslan Salei, and Jeff Friesen....Just some names I felt the Isles should look at.

NYIsles1* 03-13-2006 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe C.
But a lot depends on what we do in terms of free agents and trades this offseason.

Agree completely. Until a gm is hired and he decides who are his assets vs who is expendable we really cannot have much of a conversation about who is the odd player out regarding anything.

All we know is some players at this time are making a good case to return and there are some very promising young options in the organization.

Islesman819 03-13-2006 01:55 PM

I can see all 3 of those kids there with Erskine being sent down...

Zhitnik-Mccabe/Chara/Insert Name
Campoli-Grebs
Martinek-Gervais
7th Dman: Erskine

Bouchard is amazing and i liked the signing back in the summer when we got him, but he will go into FA thinking he can warrant top 4 dman money because of his showing thus far. So we will see, I cant believe Erskine is -7 that blows.

This would look nice:

Satan-York-Hunter
Nilsson-Yashin-Tambellini
Bergenheim-Savard-Blake
Asham-Nokelenian-Bates

Yashin is the killer of making good lines though :( , Savard is having an amazing year so he may be pricey. Arnott is a good veteran having a good year to through in the mix with the youngn's.

Darth Milbury 03-13-2006 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blinkman360
I think we all agree that we need to get that #1 defenceman this offseason. Whether it's Chara, McCabe, Redden or even Brewer(I THINK he's a UFA), we need somebody to stick on that top pairing with Zhitnik. But who ends up getting the shaft when we (hopefully) lock one of these guys up?

Eric Brewer is neither an UFA nor a true #1.

I also don't think there is any chance that Redden, Chara, or McCabe sign here, nor do I think it would be in the Isles best interest to bring in one of these guys.

A smarter move, IMO, would be to spend on one or more of the lessor guys out there, like Mitchell or Salei.

But, all this will be determined by the new GM. Hard to make any strong predictions now.

Seph 03-13-2006 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by islandermaniac
when i suggested we get two, i also suggested that i was dreaming. also, if the isles target a mckee, mitchell, or witt and have to pay $3M to get him, they are fools.

even if you get one guy, you still have to keep all the current isles around. we currently have 7 d-men who could play and signing a ufa would be 8. you need at least that many capable bodies over the course of the season. so again, i think all the current guys see time on the blueline next year.

I don't that 3m would be an overpayment for one of those guys. Niinimaa and Sopel made only slightly less than that, and they still had other teams interested in their services and willing to give up assets just for the opportunity to pay these guys. Same goes for Ozolinsh. Sopel and Ozo are no less 1dimensional than Mckee, Mitchell or Witt, but IMO are far less valuable to a team.

beach 03-13-2006 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Eric Brewer is neither an UFA nor a true #1.

I also don't think there is any chance that Redden, Chara, or McCabe sign here, nor do I think it would be in the Isles best interest to bring in one of these guys.

A smarter move, IMO, would be to spend on one or more of the lessor guys out there, like Mitchell or Salei.

But, all this will be determined by the new GM. Hard to make any strong predictions now.

McCabe's wife is a Long Islander, I think, so that may appeal to McCabe and be an incentive to move back here.

Islesman819 03-13-2006 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach
McCabe's wife is a Long Islander, I think, so that may appeal to McCabe and be an incentive to move back here.

Ahh yes...I hope thats true we dont want another I seen Alexei Kovalev in a LI pizza shop with Yashin again.

Darth Milbury 03-13-2006 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach
McCabe's wife is a Long Islander, I think, so that may appeal to McCabe and be an incentive to move back here.

That would also be an incentive for him to play for the Ranger$.

In the end, I think McCabe will go to whoever bids the highest - and I don't think that will be the Isles.

Seph 03-13-2006 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Eric Brewer is neither an UFA nor a true #1.

I also don't think there is any chance that Redden, Chara, or McCabe sign here, nor do I think it would be in the Isles best interest to bring in one of these guys.

A smarter move, IMO, would be to spend on one or more of the lessor guys out there, like Mitchell or Salei.

But, all this will be determined by the new GM. Hard to make any strong predictions now.

I don't know, if we have a shot at inking Redden or Chara, I don't know how we could pass that up. After Milbury's house cleaning, we could probably offer them around 5m/year and still have the same payroll as last year. Trade Martinek for a low pick and send Gervais down, and we can offer them 6m/year. If the cap goes up, we'll still have plenty of wiggle room. Ultimately this hinges on whether or not they want to sign here, which no one knows.

And that's not even factoring in if we buyout Yashin.

McCabe though, I agree, is not what we need. We need a steady rock on the defense, someone that can pull it together and lead it. I would prefer Redden to Chara also, incidentally.

Seph 03-13-2006 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
That would also be an incentive for him to play for the Ranger$.

In the end, I think McCabe will go to whoever bids the highest - and I don't think that will be the Isles.

I sincerely hope it isn't. He's a good player, but if we have that much money that we want to spend, there are other players I'd much much rather throw it at.

Capt Reynolds 03-13-2006 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seph
I sincerely hope it isn't. He's a good player, but if we have that much money that we want to spend, there are other players I'd much much rather throw it at.

I concur. He will fetch at least $5million per and if I had that money to throw at a single player I'd rather save it up for, say, a better first line C than Yashin. E.g., what will Brad Richards want next year. Alternatively, for $6million we might be able to sign two second-tier but solid defenders, say, Mitchell and Salei.

Pure Slaughter Value 03-14-2006 01:11 PM

Out of the three premier UFA-to-be d-men, Redden's by far the best of them.

That being said, I don't think we have a shot at him and falling back on Chara and McCabe would be a mistake. Personally feel neither will help the Isles enough to justify a 5 year, 35 million contract (if you think that both will get 5 mill a year, tack on another 500k-mill as someone will overpay)

I'd build around Redden, but not McCabe or Chara.

McKee's injury history bothers me, Mitchell's been signed for long-term by Dallas and Witt is overrated (he wasn't three years ago when we alledgedly pursued him.

Think it would be crazy to have Campoli, Grebs & Gervais all on the team next year. That's an insane lack of experience and proven inconcistency for our #3-5 d-men.

Dunno what our d is going to look like next year, in all honesty...might just be what we have right now.

Eman Resu 03-14-2006 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Islesman819
This would look nice:

Satan-York-Hunter
Nilsson-Yashin-Tambellini
Bergenheim-Savard-Blake
Asham-Nokelenian-Bates

Yashin is the killer of making good lines though :( , Savard is having an amazing year so he may be pricey. Arnott is a good veteran having a good year to through in the mix with the youngn's.

Can't see paying Savard whatever he'll command and then putting him on the third line. You mentioned in an earlier post that Briere is a UFA? If that's true, I'd love to see him on the team. He's a guy who plays hard every night and he's also a leader.

Let's get Briere and Redden and solve the leadership problem around here.

Eman Resu 03-14-2006 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Eric Brewer is neither an UFA nor a true #1.

I also don't think there is any chance that Redden, Chara, or McCabe sign here, nor do I think it would be in the Isles best interest to bring in one of these guys.

A smarter move, IMO, would be to spend on one or more of the lessor guys out there, like Mitchell or Salei.

But, all this will be determined by the new GM. Hard to make any strong predictions now.

Darth, you think Redden, Chara and McCabe would be too pricey? Is that why you wouldn't want to bring one of them in?

MarinerIslanderSean 03-14-2006 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Islesman819
I can see all 3 of those kids there with Erskine being sent down...

Zhitnik-Mccabe/Chara/Insert Name
Campoli-Grebs
Martinek-Gervais
7th Dman: Erskine

Bouchard is amazing and i liked the signing back in the summer when we got him, but he will go into FA thinking he can warrant top 4 dman money because of his showing thus far. So we will see, I cant believe Erskine is -7 that blows.

This would look nice:

Satan-York-Hunter
Nilsson-Yashin-Tambellini
Bergenheim-Savard-Blake
Asham-Nokelenian-Bates

Yashin is the killer of making good lines though :( , Savard is having an amazing year so he may be pricey. Arnott is a good veteran having a good year to through in the mix with the youngn's.


I like your ideas, but I would say that any move to get a top-tier defenseman involves buying Yashin out. We would have around a $34-35 million starting payroll with him but $30 million if he is bought out. If we don't buy him out and sign a Redden/Chara/McCabe, we are out of money. The cap probably goes up to around $44 million next year, so I would much rather have $12-14 million to work with than $9.

Yeah, you need a top-tier defenseman, no doubt. I don't recall a lot of teams that have won the Cup without one. And the Islanders are going to have to be willing to fork over $6-7 million to do it. True, Savard may be pricey, but I think Briere is capable of similar production and be worth less because of his injuries. However, he isn't chronically injured and makes around $1.3 right now. He could be pryed away from Buffalo for around $3 million. Sign Cory Sarich or someone around $2 million to round out the defense and you have a payroll of $42 million, likely giving you a million or two to spare.

This might still be a little pricey, but I could also see the Islanders packaging Gervais and someone else from the Bridge for Leopold or someone along those lines. Zhitnik could still be traded. It will be interesting to see who will be outgoing. If we trade away Zhitnik and get Leopold in a separate deal, there might be room for another forward.

Darth Milbury 03-14-2006 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eman Resu
Darth, you think Redden, Chara and McCabe would be too pricey? Is that why you wouldn't want to bring one of them in?

Rather than spend 6 million on Chara, I'd rather have Mitchell and Salei for less than 3 million each. But, either way, I don't think that big multiyear contracts are a great idea in today's NHL.

Trottier 03-14-2006 02:37 PM

My advice:

Don't get caught up pinning your hopes on the biggest, flashiest Dman names. NYR (among others) did it every summer for years...and got nowhere.

The top guys, as stated, will demand, big buck, long-term deals. Last time NYI did that, well....

About time to learn some lessons, no?

I'd like to see NYI sign a good, cost-effective veteran to help balance out a backline that could possess two sophmores and a freshman next year. That is a lot of inexperience. Talented, but inexperienced.

My wishlist for that dman:

Kenny Jonsson (if he could get out of his European deal)
Keith Carney

Alternatively, you may find that player on the trade market (Jason Cullimore?).

The worst thing NYI could do is lock themselves up with another long-term deal. Unless existing multiple-year contracts were first purged (i.e., Yashin, Satan and Zhitnik; and I have no real desire to see the latter two moved), it would be terribly irresponsible to get involved in the $5 mil+ a year bidding neighborhood that the elite dmen will demand.

As for who is the odd man out next season, I would not assume who is "in" just yet. For example, Gervais, at this point, might be a favorite to break camp with NYI next fall. But didn't Kohn impress the team last camp? And of course, who knows what D men might come inexpensively on the trade market by virtue of their team looking to pare salary.


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