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-   -   A team at the crossroads (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=23204)

Mr Sakich 10-27-2003 07:03 AM

A team at the crossroads
 
The way I see it, the oilers are approaching a very important decision. They are not good enough to win a cup this year and next year may not happen. It has been widely reported that the new cba will have cost certainty in exchange for more liberal ufa (ie - lowere age)

Lowe must make a choice pretty quick. Does he trade comrie for immediate help or does he trade comrie, smith, Staios(if he won't sign an extension), and salo for kids/prospects?

I think the oilers are real close to becomming a dominant team like ott if we had another 1-2 high end defense prospects and another goalie to peak in 1-2 years. JDD is 3-5 years away from being a dominant goalie in the best case scenario. We have plenty of great forward prospects.

Numerous teams are going to be reaching this decision point in a couple of months so you may see a lot of veterans on the block this year.

M00se 10-27-2003 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Sakich
The way I see it, the oilers are approaching a very important decision. They are not good enough to win a cup this year and next year may not happen. It has been widely reported that the new cba will have cost certainty in exchange for more liberal ufa (ie - lowere age)

Lowe must make a choice pretty quick. Does he trade comrie for immediate help or does he trade comrie, smith, Staios(if he won't sign an extension), and salo for kids/prospects?

I think the oilers are real close to becomming a dominant team like ott if we had another 1-2 high end defense prospects and another goalie to peak in 1-2 years. JDD is 3-5 years away from being a dominant goalie in the best case scenario. We have plenty of great forward prospects.

Numerous teams are going to be reaching this decision point in a couple of months so you may see a lot of veterans on the block this year.


Do we completly rebuild or keep on approaching the rebuilding halfa**ed. Personally I think that a total rebuild would be the way to go for 3 reasons.

1. We're always going to remain a mediocre team in the 6,7,8,9 position by the time our young players get good enough we have to keep trading the vets and start he process all over again. But if we could have all the players starting at relativly the same age and maturing all at the same time we could have an Ottawa or Vancouver situation. That means guys like Smith and Salo should be traded for younger cheaper guys.

2. If we do miss all or most of the year next year wouldn't it make more sense to have all the young guys we can and the lowest salary possible? We want to coe out of armaggedon in the best shape possible.

3. If we do have a fire sale and let the kids go for it we could have a chance at Ovechkin who could be the final piece of the puzzle.

It's definetly something to think about.

future consideration 10-27-2003 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by M00se
Do we completly rebuild or keep on approaching the rebuilding halfa**ed. Personally I think that a total rebuild would be the way to go for 3 reasons.

1. We're always going to remain a mediocre team in the 6,7,8,9 position by the time our young players get good enough we have to keep trading the vets and start he process all over again. But if we could have all the players starting at relativly the same age and maturing all at the same time we could have an Ottawa or Vancouver situation. That means guys like Smith and Salo should be traded for younger cheaper guys.

2. If we do miss all or most of the year next year wouldn't it make more sense to have all the young guys we can and the lowest salary possible? We want to coe out of armaggedon in the best shape possible.

3. If we do have a fire sale and let the kids go for it we could have a chance at Ovechkin who could be the final piece of the puzzle.

It's definetly something to think about.

Yes thats it. Tank the season so we might get Ovechkin. I'm sure the 15,000 people who bought season tickets will love that.

Mr Sakich 10-27-2003 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by future consideration
Yes thats it. Tank the season so we might get Ovechkin. I'm sure the 15,000 people who bought season tickets will love that.

normally, tanking a season would never be excused by the fans or ownership but this is a special case. Cal Nichols has allready said that there won't be an oiler team if the next cba doesn't allow them to compete. There are two possible scenarios

1 the new cba gives cost certainty and the oilers can compete - the oilers enter the season with a re-newed optimism in spite of a poor 2003-4 season with many great young players/prospects

2 the new cba caves to the players - the oilers enter the season up for sale and shedding all salaries just like pittsburgh

In both cases, season ticket sales will not be dependant on the success of this year's oilers. If the oilers trade away some veterans and the new cba allows them to compete, they may have some extra cash to go after some players because they will certainly be under the cap.

G-Double 10-27-2003 11:37 AM

I posted this in another thread but i really do't think the Oilers have the top end talent that the senators have and i wouldn't even put the canucks in the same class as the senators, because the senators are just so deep it is ridiculous. Their 3rd line can clown on alot of teams top line...or at worst their 2nd.

quat 10-27-2003 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Double
I posted this in another thread but i really do't think the Oilers have the top end talent that the senators have and i wouldn't even put the canucks in the same class as the senators, because the senators are just so deep it is ridiculous. Their 3rd line can clown on alot of teams top line...or at worst their 2nd.

I'm a Nucks fan, and I'd have to completely agree with this assessment. I think the Oilers are further back than some may imagine, and the Canucks have a lot of improvement yet to be where the Sens are. I'd like to see the Oilers succeed as a club, but I think guys like Isbister or Dvorak and now even York are going to struggle without other stonger players to help them out. Certainly Smyth and Hemsky are great, but they need a couple more really solid guys to be a lock for the playoffs. I think there is enough talent on the team to always ice an interesting team, but I also think they are trying to rebuild, and that takes a couple of years if you don't have big $. Without any insult intended at all, as the Sens have quite a remarkable team, the Oilers are years away from being at the Sens level. Of course, they have to be concidered one of the elite teams of the league, and if they learned anything last season, they should be representing the East this time around.

LoudmouthHemskyfan#1 10-27-2003 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Sakich
normally, tanking a season would never be excused by the fans or ownership but this is a special case. Cal Nichols has allready said that there won't be an oiler team if the next cba doesn't allow them to compete. There are two possible scenarios

1 the new cba gives cost certainty and the oilers can compete - the oilers enter the season with a re-newed optimism in spite of a poor 2003-4 season with many great young players/prospects

2 the new cba caves to the players - the oilers enter the season up for sale and shedding all salaries just like pittsburgh

In both cases, season ticket sales will not be dependant on the success of this year's oilers. If the oilers trade away some veterans and the new cba allows them to compete, they may have some extra cash to go after some players because they will certainly be under the cap.

There is no way tanking a season should ever be excused by fans, regardless of the circumstances. Cal Nichols may not want to be a part owner, but there's nothing stopping other people from either buying in and taking over, or buying a larger share. He cannot and should not be making the gun-to-the-head threat like that.

In the case of your scenario #2, I'd give that about a 2% chance of happening. I don't think it can logically be considered as an outcome. Maybe that's just be, but I really think it is in effect an impossiblity, due to the positions of the parties involved.

Why would fans come back to a team that effectively took their thousands of dollars the year before and said "we're taking this money of yours, and not going to attempt to return it with a product, BUT, next year we will magically jump back into competitiveness and providing you with the best team we can"? Why would anyone buy that? Not only can't it work, it's just plain wrong. Who's to say they don't simply take a chunk of profit every year and keep us in the middle tier of the league saying "we have to recoup our losses" or "we need to remain responsible"? And a better question yet, what does this do to the players on the team??? Why should Ryan Smyth or Steve Staios or Ales Hemsky or Marty Reasoner want to stay on a team that would blow one of their productive seasons ON PURPOSE? You would lose the ENTIRE ROSTER in a matter of weeks, psychologically.

If they were to tank this season, I'd go as far as to say we'd be lucky if we made the playoffs in under three years, and made a conference final in under six. You cannot do that to a group of players, and suddenly expect them to believe there is a desire to win on behalf of the organization. Not only would free agents from other teams not want to sign here, but our RFAs and UFAs would basically tell management to shove it.

thome_26 10-27-2003 01:04 PM

I agree that the Oilers aren't at the Senators stage, but very few teams ever are and will be at their stage. I think to say we should rebuild is kind of funny. I we are already the youngest team in the NHL - do we get younger??? I think we are at the stage where up should be the only direction. This team looks like it could/should peak in about 3-4 years, I think if we stay the course we'll be just fine - I like what Lowe is doing right now!

Mr Sakich 10-27-2003 01:24 PM

I agree that we are 3-4 years away from true contention. Does that mean we should trade smith now or lose him to ufa in 2 years? Same for staios and salo.

Why trade comrie for a guy that is will be ufa in 3-4 years?

thome_26 10-27-2003 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Sakich
I agree that we are 3-4 years away from true contention. Does that mean we should trade smith now or lose him to ufa in 2 years? Same for staios and salo.

Why trade comrie for a guy that is will be ufa in 3-4 years?

I think Stevey will be re-signed long term - atleast I'm hoping he will. Smith will probably be gone after this year (hence I've been mentioning trading him). I think Tommy is a short term thing that will be there (Unless he completely goes in the tank, and please lets not make this another Salo discussion) untill JDD is ready.

G-Double 10-27-2003 05:20 PM

how doyou compete with limited amounts of consistent go-to-guys for scoring? We really don't have `1 legit sniper on this team, dvorajk could be that guy, but thats about it and we never know if he'll come to play or not.

jadeddog 10-27-2003 05:29 PM

the main thread in this thread, lol, is the idea of edmonton being stuck in a rut of mediocroty..... well *newsflash*, in case you havent been around for the past 10 years or so.... OF COURSE we're a mediocre team (at best).....

the current CBA does not allow us to maintain our own developed talent, nor does it allow us to evenly compete for players on the open market, it even puts us in a position where we haveto place too much pressure on our young up-and-coming players, equating into situations like arnotts and comries..... until the CBA changes, and i mean changes *drastically*, we will continue to be a mediocre team....

the only way to get around this, as this thread and other have pointed out, is to finish last or next to last for a few seasons in a row and draft some very good prospects

*sigh*... its really discouraging being a fan of a team who is constantly fighting an uphill battle

thome_26 10-27-2003 05:34 PM

yes it is frustraiting, but then it makes the success that much more sweeter too - I mean I love cheering for the underdog (I still can't wait for the day I'm cheering for the favorite to win the cup though)! To call is a mediocre team is kinda harsh too - I mean we HAVE been in the playoffs regularly for some time - and thats something that a lot of teams can't say.

G-Double 10-27-2003 05:52 PM

how about being somewhat content with the 3rd-4th liners we have and currently have developing and start drafting for out and out skill, pound for pound take the most skilled guy out there. This years draft was incredibly deep and in the 2nd round we immediately start taking guys that are grinders with limited offensive upside at the pro-level. I love colin macdonalds skill set but i am not holding out hope he turns into a bonafide sniper or another bill guerin.

Joukov and of course Dragan hold promise because they are skilled guys, but JF Jacques in the 3rd round? come on, we gotta do better than that, did someone owe his uncle a favor or something? my god.

It is just frustrating...take a step back and look at the current team and future prospects, all the top end talent or the guys that project to be top end, are almost all PLAYMKERS....we need goal scorers, plain and simple.

We will be nowhere near ott in 3-4 years if we can't draft some real snipers or get them in trade (comrie)
Bah this is useless cuz as long as mact is coach they'll draft guys he really likes and those guys aren't the type of guys that will help carry us to the promised land.

thome_26 10-27-2003 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Double
how about being somewhat content with the 3rd-4th liners we have and currently have developing and start drafting for out and out skill, pound for pound take the most skilled guy out there. This years draft was incredibly deep and in the 2nd round we immediately start taking guys that are grinders with limited offensive upside at the pro-level. I love colin macdonalds skill set but i am not holding out hope he turns into a bonafide sniper or another bill guerin.

Joukov and of course Dragan hold promise because they are skilled guys, but JF Jacques in the 3rd round? come on, we gotta do better than that, did someone owe his uncle a favor or something? my god.

It is just frustrating...take a step back and look at the current team and future prospects, all the top end talent or the guys that project to be top end, are almost all PLAYMKERS....we need goal scorers, plain and simple.

We will be nowhere near ott in 3-4 years if we can't draft some real snipers or get them in trade (comrie)
Bah this is useless cuz as long as mact is coach they'll draft guys he really likes and those guys aren't the type of guys that will help carry us to the promised land.

Both Rita and Salmo are finishers if anything IMO. Mikhnov is a finisher. I'm not to sure what you're talking about all we have is playmakers.

jadeddog 10-27-2003 06:09 PM

your right .... riat and salm *are* finishers, but where are they? in the AHL.... so guys like pisani "1 game wonder" can play 10 mins a game??? just an example of ho we go for guys that dont really do anything as opposed to guys that will do something, though it might be good or bad, lol

but this is a "macT gripe" and dosnt fit in with this thread

i think calling edmonton a mediocre team very fair, mediocre basically means average.... now edmoton usually finishes 7th-8th in the west and 14-16 in teh NHL.... well there are 30 teams, so that makes us about as average as you can get... i dont see how people think that we are somehow better than this

Master Lok 10-28-2003 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoudmouthHemskyfan#1
There is no way tanking a season should ever be excused by fans, regardless of the circumstances. Cal Nichols may not want to be a part owner, but there's nothing stopping other people from either buying in and taking over, or buying a larger share. He cannot and should not be making the gun-to-the-head threat like that.

In the case of your scenario #2, I'd give that about a 2% chance of happening. I don't think it can logically be considered as an outcome. Maybe that's just be, but I really think it is in effect an impossiblity, due to the positions of the parties involved.

Why would fans come back to a team that effectively took their thousands of dollars the year before and said "we're taking this money of yours, and not going to attempt to return it with a product, BUT, next year we will magically jump back into competitiveness and providing you with the best team we can"? Why would anyone buy that? Not only can't it work, it's just plain wrong. Who's to say they don't simply take a chunk of profit every year and keep us in the middle tier of the league saying "we have to recoup our losses" or "we need to remain responsible"? And a better question yet, what does this do to the players on the team??? Why should Ryan Smyth or Steve Staios or Ales Hemsky or Marty Reasoner want to stay on a team that would blow one of their productive seasons ON PURPOSE? You would lose the ENTIRE ROSTER in a matter of weeks, psychologically.

If they were to tank this season, I'd go as far as to say we'd be lucky if we made the playoffs in under three years, and made a conference final in under six. You cannot do that to a group of players, and suddenly expect them to believe there is a desire to win on behalf of the organization. Not only would free agents from other teams not want to sign here, but our RFAs and UFAs would basically tell management to shove it.

For once, LMHF #1, you and I are completely in agreement. A team as good as the Oilers are should NEVER tank a season. maybe if you were Pittsburgh, it would be tempting to tank the last month. But considering the Oilers who finished last year with 90 pts and was top 8 in the ultra competitive Western Division this is YET another example of fan panicking and stampeding!

Firstly, the Oilers owe it to the season ticket holders and even the non-ticket holding fans that they put the best product forward. They are professionals and I expect them to act that way.

Secondly, even if we did finish last, there's no guarantee we get Ovechkin with the draft lottery structured.

Lastly, so bloody what if Ovechkin is the next big thing since sliced bread? HOW MANY TIMES HAVE THE SCOUTS BEEN WRONG? Let's see, Lindros was the next coming, such that Philly gave up on Forsberg, Hextall, and half a dozen players to get him. Nowadays, people wouldn't trade Lindros for Forsberg straight up! Then there was Daigle. Or how about DiPietro, how many games has he won? Bonsignore was drafted 4th overall and was a complete bust. other high draft picks (I.e. top 5), Aki Berg, Chad Kilger, Pavel Brendl, Aaron Ward, Chris Gratton...

thome_26 10-28-2003 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neogeo69
For once, LMHF #1, you and I are completely in agreement. A team as good as the Oilers are should NEVER tank a season. maybe if you were Pittsburgh, it would be tempting to tank the last month. But considering the Oilers who finished last year with 90 pts and was top 8 in the ultra competitive Western Division this is YET another example of fan panicking and stampeding!

Firstly, the Oilers owe it to the season ticket holders and even the non-ticket holding fans that they put the best product forward. They are professionals and I expect them to act that way.

Secondly, even if we did finish last, there's no guarantee we get Ovechkin with the draft lottery structured.

Lastly, so bloody what if Ovechkin is the next big thing since sliced bread? HOW MANY TIMES HAVE THE SCOUTS BEEN WRONG? Let's see, Lindros was the next coming, such that Philly gave up on Forsberg, Hextall, and half a dozen players to get him. Nowadays, people wouldn't trade Lindros for Forsberg straight up! Then there was Daigle. Or how about DiPietro, how many games has he won? Bonsignore was drafted 4th overall and was a complete bust. other high draft picks (I.e. top 5), Aki Berg, Chad Kilger, Pavel Brendl, Aaron Ward, Chris Gratton...

None of them are as impressive as Ovechkin with the exception of Lindros, and the only reason his value i low is because he has concusion problems and it changed the type of player he is.

To list Dipietro has a bust is VERY VERY premature as well. He is playing great in long island right now - and all he needed was some time.


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