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leafaholix* 08-08-2006 01:04 AM

2003 & 2004 NHL Drafts
 
I'm curious, what do you guys think about these 2 drafts and what the Habs did with their 1st picks.

2003: F Andrei Kostitsyn (10th overall)
- F Jeff Carter (11th) - 42 pts in 81 games
- F Dustin Brown (13th) - 33 pts in 110 games
- D Brent Seabrook (14th) - 32 pts in 69 games
- F Robert Nilsson (15th) - 20 pts in 53 games
- F Steve Bernier (16th) - 27 pts in 39 games
- F Zach Parise (17th) - 32 pts in 81 games
- F Ryan Getzlaf (18th) - 39 pts in 57 games

2004: F Kyle Chipchura (18th overall)
- F Wojtek Wolski (21st overall) - 6 pts in 9 games, 2006 OHL MVP
- D Andrej Meszaros (23rd overall) - 39 pts in 82 games
- F Rob Schremp (25th overall) - top scorer in OHL (145 pts/57 gp)
- D Mike Green (29th overall) - 3 pts in 22 games, AHL all-star as rookie

Clearly, so far it hasn't worked out too well for Timmins, can someone explain why the "our scouts liked him, so it's a great pick" sentiment is so popular for Hab fans?

coolguy21415 08-08-2006 01:28 AM

I might take Parise over Kostitsyn if we were to do it over again, but we can't evaluate those drafts until Kosty actually plays some games. There really haven't been spots open for them, and Kostitsyn impressed in the games he played. Give him time.

As for Chipchura, I'm not a fan of this pick. Anyway I'm not making excuses for Timmins, but I understand how the nature of the draft leads to negative analysis. I can only say that we've got what we've got, and his picks in later rounds have made up for some of the early picks which haven't panned out.

leafaholix* 08-08-2006 01:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedScull (Post 6233717)
I might take Parise over Kostitsyn if we were to do it over again, but we can't evaluate those drafts until Kosty actually plays some games. There really haven't been spots open for them, and Kostitsyn impressed in the games he played. Give him time.

As for Chipchura, I'm not a fan of this pick. Anyway I'm not making excuses for Timmins, but I understand how the nature of the draft leads to negative analysis. I can only say that we've got what we've got, and his picks in later rounds have made up for some of the early picks which haven't panned out.

Is it not reasonable to question Kostitsyn when it comes to why he hasn't made a spot open for himself, rather than assuming the other players that have played a long stretch of games were allowed to step into the a lineup with holes?

I mean, it's not as if the Montreal Canadiens are any deeper than New Jersey (Parise), Philadelphia (Richards, Carter), San Jose (Bernier), Anaheim (Getzlaf), Colorado (Wolski), Ottawa (Meszaros), etc...

Talent Analyst 08-08-2006 08:25 AM

I like the Kostitsyn pick . But don't very like the Chipchura pick . Chipchura is more a player in the style of Gainey and Carboneau . Leader , gritty , good attitude , two-way that his principal quality .

Blind Gardien 08-08-2006 08:36 AM

I love the Chipchura pick, I'd still take him over Schremp or Wolski. I don't think the book was really in on Meszaros. Although a lot of people recommended taking him here, there were a lot of doubts about parts of his game that have subsequently been proven wrong. Green was my favourite on draft day, and I nabbed him in my FHL, but I have no complaints that a co-favourite like Chipchura was taken. Mostly, if I recall correctly, I just assumed he'd be gone before we picked. :dunno:

The Kostitsyn pick wasn't my preference on draft day, but all the hype and sizzle surrounding it made me satisfied pretty quickly afterwards. Alas, for that. In re-retrospect, my original favourites like Brown and Getzlaf would indeed have been better. Not that the book is closed on Kostitsyn yet or anything, but clearly he's behind the curve.

Anyway, I don't think it's very meaningful to look at your picks in hindsight relative to who else was available. The bottom line is whether or not the guys we did pick turn out. If Kostitsyn makes it as a viable source of 2nd line offense (or better) then we will have made a good pick. If Chipchura makes it as a solid character 3rd line center (or better) then we will have made a good pick. It's more about getting a player who pans out the way you wanted him to than about getting the player who turns out to have been the best player available at that spot in the draft. There's no way that even the best scouts in the business can get you the latter, it's just rolling the dice. But good scouting should maximize the odds that you get the former.

Darz 08-08-2006 08:52 AM

I think we should wait at least a couple more seasons before we start deciding if Kostitsyn or Chipchura were good or bad picks.

I agree with Blind Gardien, I still really like the Chipchura pick. He was my pick on draft day, and outside of Meszaros, I would still pick Chipchura in hindsight.

As for Kostitsyn, I still think that it could turn out to be a great pick. Getzlaf and Brown were the two players I was hoping for when we picked at #10, but hey, we knew when the habs selected Kostitsyn he was going to be a project and there was a good chance he was going to take longer to make it to the NHL, so I think we should use a little patience with him.

Whitesnake 08-08-2006 08:56 AM

2003, have to agree with you, AS OF NOW. Not because Kosty will not develop in a good player, not because today he's not in the bigs, the others are 'cause this is too easy to say it when it's done. But mostly because at that time, I don't think it was appropriate to pick a high risk high reward guys 'cause the consensus for everyone was that it was a really really solid year with a bunch of sure picks to be in the NHL, and it turned down that way as well.

Find it odd from Timmins part to say that this year they went for needs, for d-men, when it's been a long time that we were looking for a tall skilled centerman and that Getzlaf was not picked.....Was clearly a need, but they truly went for the pure definition of BPA in their minds, based on pure skill and that's the result we have AS OF NOW. Getzlaf was my pick based on needs at that time and still is 'cause I want to be true to what I was thinking and that Carter was nowhere supposed to be drafted that soon, even Getzlaf was a little bit of reach but at least we could've traded down get another pick and still get our big center....

2004 I don't agree. Again, another need would be to have a true leader that can do a great job as a two-way centerman and Chipchura provide that. My main concerns with him, as of now, are still his skating and his offensive abilities at a high level. I believe the questions marks were too high on the other guys to not pick him. Wolski, was he too unidimensionnal, mostly after picking Kosty, another possible unidimensionnal guy??? Is Schremp for real, is he just another flashy guy with a poor work ethic??? Meszjaros, well that's the only guy I see who could've been a solid competition to Chipper's pick, and then we began hearing some people in Ottawa questioning if he really is going to become what they expected at first. Are we seeing limitations that we didn't see before????

I believe Chipper's safe pick was the response to Kosty's riskier pick one year before....

habfan4 08-08-2006 09:15 AM

:confused: I don't see the point of including Chipchura in this exercise of hindsight. Outside of a freak achilles tendon injury the kid is on track to make the club next year (or perhaps a year later). In the interim he captained Team Canada to a win at the WJC, so what's not to like???

In terms of Kostitsyn he's not the only prospect to take time to develop or adjust to the NA game. I assume that Leaf fans still think that Carlo Colaiacovo still has a future despite being hampered by injuries and despite the fact that he's a 2001 first rounder.

Beakermania* 08-08-2006 09:18 AM

It takes 5 years to truly evaluate a draft, call me in 2008 and we'll discuss Kostitsyn then. 2009 we can talk about Chipchura relative to those picked after him etc...

Early returns are not always indicative of long term success in the NHL and we really need to give our guys time.

AH 08-08-2006 09:56 AM

i think Leaf fans should worry about their own porous drating record.

Vasculio 08-08-2006 09:57 AM

I'm getting tired to see all those 'I would've picked this player instead of this player, man Timmins was nuts, I'm sure I'd draft better than him, yada yada yada'

Yeah yeah, as someone stated earlier in this thread, it's too easy to say that after it's all said and done...

In 2003, I wanted Getzlaf, cause he was exactly what I thought we needed for some time, but I was still pleased to hear Kostitsyn's name, and right now he's my favorite prospect by a mile, IMO he has so much potential to be a star... he just need a bit of time to adapt and harness all of his attributes.

In 2004, Chipchura was the one I wanted because of his leadership, size and 2-way play.

PS I propose to make a sticky of all those 'Draft retrospective', so that all the GM Wannabes can go debate there of which pick we should've taken instead of... can you change the friggin' past ??????????????????

Beakermania* 08-08-2006 10:06 AM

You also have to remember that Kostitsyn was always a project. He had three large factors against being in the NHL quickly.

1) He was from a non-traditional hockey country (Belarus) and didn't play with or against the same level of talent that guys like Jeff Carter, and Getzlaf were exposed to.
2) Needed to learn the language and adapt to a smaller ice surface.
3) Needed to get over a medical condition (epilepsy).

The fact that Andrei's little brother came to the London Knights at a younger age than Andrei left home shows that he clearly thinks 1 and 2 are factors that have an effect and he took steps to overcome them quicker than his brother did.

All of these factors mean that Carter, Getzlaf, etc would have an easier transition to the NHL than Kostitsyn would have. We knew this at the start.
That is why we have to evaluate after 5 years, In 2009 he may be better than both those guys. Sure it will take him longer to get there, but if in the end he is a better player than was it worth it??

montreal 08-08-2006 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by your_rogers_bill (Post 6233633)
I'm curious, what do you guys think about these 2 drafts and what the Habs did with their 1st picks.

2003: F Andrei Kostitsyn (10th overall)
- F Jeff Carter (11th) - 42 pts in 81 games
- F Dustin Brown (13th) - 33 pts in 110 games
- D Brent Seabrook (14th) - 32 pts in 69 games
- F Robert Nilsson (15th) - 20 pts in 53 games
- F Steve Bernier (16th) - 27 pts in 39 games
- F Zach Parise (17th) - 32 pts in 81 games
- F Ryan Getzlaf (18th) - 39 pts in 57 games

2004: F Kyle Chipchura (18th overall)
- F Wojtek Wolski (21st overall) - 6 pts in 9 games, 2006 OHL MVP
- D Andrej Meszaros (23rd overall) - 39 pts in 82 games
- F Rob Schremp (25th overall) - top scorer in OHL (145 pts/57 gp)
- D Mike Green (29th overall) - 3 pts in 22 games, AHL all-star as rookie

Clearly, so far it hasn't worked out too well for Timmins, can someone explain why the "our scouts liked him, so it's a great pick" sentiment is so popular for Hab fans?

What hasn't worked out? Kostitsyn was likely one of the Habs top players in the AHL despite being among the youngest (Lapierre is 1 month younger) He was 2nd on the team in scoring and often ran the point on the PP. He's made good strides in each of the two years he's been in North America, but still has a good bit of work to do.

Chipchura had a freak accident that cost him almost a year of development. He had a very solid year with Prince Albert, had to be their MVP and he was also good with Team Canada and got high praise from Coach Sutter for his play. I thought he looked great in his short stint in Hamilton.

What other players do means nothing. The Canadiens always bring their prospects along slowly. The last 19 year old to see anything more then 3 or 4 games was Ribeiro and that was almost a disaster. Imo you don't evaluate your own prospects by the development of others. For those that don't understand development, kids at 18-20's will grow and mature at different levels/stages. Some faster then others. Then there's the system they play and how they are groomed. Other teams don't seem to have a problem putting their young players in the lineup right away, but that has nothing to do with the Habs. It's not about who was picked over who and why wasn't this guy picked instead. You can't change the past, you make your picks, take your chances and from there focus on their development.

It's pointless and silly to even compare others in different systems/situations. Yes fans can go on and on about how it sucks that other prospects are doing so much better. But it has nothing to do with the real world. In the real world you do your best to pick the players that you think will fit your system the best, guys you think will help your organization. Once you make those picks, it's done and if you didn't get the best guy which is often going to be the case if you look at it from a statistical standpoint, you still do what you can for each player to maximize their development and progression. There are many forms of success from draft picks and not all of them mean scoring 30+ goals in the NHL. Just as there are great chances most of your picks will never make it and turn out to be busts. Life goes on.

shortcat1 08-08-2006 12:18 PM

To say that Timmins didn't do a very good job is a ridiculous assessment.

Kostitsyn was rated way above all of the others pre-draft (aside from fears about his 'epilepsy', he would have been an easy top five). To pass him over at the time would have been foolish. :yo:

As for Chipchura, he was a sure pick... one who had rock-solid potential as a leader - not a top end point-getter but exactly what he would be - a hard-working Gainey-type leader on the team. :yo:

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Bryzga lol* 08-08-2006 12:20 PM

You'll all love Chipchura once we see him play in the playoffs. Did anyone see the Oilers during the post-season? They didn't have much finesse, but they had heart, and I think Kyle is the perfect playoff player. Drafting Latendresse and Chipchura complimented exactly what Montreal needed upfront.

wholeshow* 08-08-2006 01:55 PM

kostitsyn played great in hamilton when he was with his usual linemates of brad winchester and pouilot. but the oilers had so many callups that andrei's linemates changed from game to game tarnishing his ability to create positive cohesion with his other mates. if kost gets to play with grabovsky in hamilton we're all going to witness a dynamic duo unfold before our own very eyes, giving us a glimpse of the future for the canadiens.

people were commenting on how guys like getzlaf and brown have had better nhl careers than kostitsyn. well first off, those two guys didn't have to battle 3 other older rookies for spots on their team (pleks, higgins and perezhogin). having 4 rookies on the starting roster would have been wrong, as atleast one of these players would have been relegated to minimal ice time on a 4th line. that's not how you develop scoring forwards.

i've seen kost in play and his raw skill is amazing. his slap has to be over 100mph, his ability to accelerate with the puck is exceptional and he's turning into a pretty good backchecker as well. the kid is going to have a great career.

as for chipchura, i'm more of a fan of the flashy scoring forwards, so i was hoping we'd go after robbie schremp. But seeing rob drop so much made me think that his 'attitude' problem was extremely severe, making chipchura the complete opposite. the guy is a leader with a great work ethic who can play the pk and can also score the goals when given the opportunity. when i see him play he reminds me so much of trevor linden, as a result i'm happy to have mini linden in our organization. as for his skating being absent? he's actually a pretty good skater, i guess the people that were concerned about his skating were making comments shortly after his achilles injury.

Darz 08-08-2006 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by montreal (Post 6236058)
What hasn't worked out? Kostitsyn was likely one of the Habs top players in the AHL despite being among the youngest (Lapierre is 1 month younger) He was 2nd on the team in scoring and often ran the point on the PP. He's made good strides in each of the two years he's been in North America, but still has a good bit of work to do.

Chipchura had a freak accident that cost him almost a year of development. He had a very solid year with Prince Albert, had to be their MVP and he was also good with Team Canada and got high praise from Coach Sutter for his play. I thought he looked great in his short stint in Hamilton.

What other players do means nothing. The Canadiens always bring their prospects along slowly. The last 19 year old to see anything more then 3 or 4 games was Ribeiro and that was almost a disaster. Imo you don't evaluate your own prospects by the development of others. For those that don't understand development, kids at 18-20's will grow and mature at different levels/stages. Some faster then others. Then there's the system they play and how they are groomed. Other teams don't seem to have a problem putting their young players in the lineup right away, but that has nothing to do with the Habs. It's not about who was picked over who and why wasn't this guy picked instead. You can't change the past, you make your picks, take your chances and from there focus on their development.

It's pointless and silly to even compare others in different systems/situations. Yes fans can go on and on about how it sucks that other prospects are doing so much better. But it has nothing to do with the real world. In the real world you do your best to pick the players that you think will fit your system the best, guys you think will help your organization. Once you make those picks, it's done and if you didn't get the best guy which is often going to be the case if you look at it from a statistical standpoint, you still do what you can for each player to maximize their development and progression. There are many forms of success from draft picks and not all of them mean scoring 30+ goals in the NHL. Just as there are great chances most of your picks will never make it and turn out to be busts. Life goes on.


GAME......SET......AND FRICKIN MATCH!!!!!!!

:bow:

kostitsyn1489 08-08-2006 02:30 PM

Kostitsyn was a really good pick. I would prefer have Phaneuf because we needed a D-men but Calgary draft him 1 rank before us so Kostitsyn was best player we could chose. Often, I hear we dont have 50g scorer or 100 points man since Lafleur etc etc etc but he can be this guys! It was a project and without is epileptics problem maybe he would go 1st or at least in the top 3. Kostitsyn have all what it takes to score in the NHL. Just see what he do during is 2nd call-up on the 2nd line he was everywhere on the ice. he's really inteligent and he's effective on all 3 zone. He's not a great defensive player but what I see of him in the 2nd part of the year he creates a lot of turnover(AHL-NHL). And offensively he can do anything he can something out of no-where he's a kind of kovalev with a bit more top speed(He's younger). I think he'll be our best forward foor years to come. We build a line for him and we'll not having problem about is english or else when he'll play with Grabovski and SK. We already build around him and I think it'll help him a lot.

Chipchura. I heard soooooooooo many time we dont have a good leader in our team. No captain etc... Now we draft one of the best in the last 5 years so we have our next captain. We've a player with a great work ethic a team player. Anyteam want a guy like that in their team. This guy will not impress us for hos stats so now he seems a bad pick but he's so effective in game time he do anything on the ice and off the ice. And he'll bring weight on center position.

Maitz 08-08-2006 03:56 PM

I like the Kost pick but I wanted Getzlaf so bad ! :(

Marchy79 08-08-2006 04:15 PM

I am STILL happy with our selections from those 2 drafts... IMO we made out very well... Time will ultimately tell, but as many have said... I believe we have a leader, and a gamebreaker from those 2 first selcetions...

How fast they make it matters NOTHING to me... Its the fact that they DO make it.


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