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Volchenkov 11-17-2003 10:28 AM

Adrian Aucoin
 
I'm bored, so let's discuss the relative virtues of trading for Adrian Aucoin. The price as I see it would not be all that high considering that he is soon to be a UFA (this year or next). Aucoin would be ecstatic to come back to his home town with a legit chance at winning the cup there. With the sens D playing as poorly (compared to how well it could) as it is, it may be time to trade for that 6th top-4 D-man. Pothier or Hnidy (or both) would have to go to the Isles plus say Shastlivy and a pick/prospect.

Thoughts?

Other Dave 11-17-2003 10:50 AM

I'm a big fan of Aucoin, and think he'd be swell on the Sens. If he's available, though, it'll be at the traded deadline, and only because the Isles have tanked the season.

I don't think the Isle will be interested in another young forward, given the prospects poised to join the team, but Pothier + picks might be sufficient in such circumstances.

Other Dave

discostu 11-17-2003 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Volchenkov
I'm bored, so let's discuss the relative virtues of trading for Adrian Aucoin. The price as I see it would not be all that high considering that he is soon to be a UFA (this year or next). Aucoin would be ecstatic to come back to his home town with a legit chance at winning the cup there. With the sens D playing as poorly (compared to how well it could) as it is, it may be time to trade for that 6th top-4 D-man. Pothier or Hnidy (or both) would have to go to the Isles plus say Shastlivy and a pick/prospect.

Thoughts?

It quite simply won't be enough to land him. I'm pretty certain that he's not a UFA at the end of this year (I haven't seen his name on any of the lists of possible UFAs). If we wanted him, we'd have to offer something more substantial.

I don't know what the Islander's are looking for right now. I think they're still suffering with blue line depth, and if they traded for Aucoin, they need better players to fill out the d-men core. Pothier would be decent for them, but with Hamrlik and Niinima there, there isn't too much of a need for another offensive d-man.

I'm nearly certain the Milbury would want Phillips in return, and I don't think many Sens fans want to make that trade.

I also don't think he would gel well here. He's thrived on playing massive minutes for New York. If he came up here, he'd be buried on the depth chart. He wouldn't be any hire than third, and if he struggles, he could very well be 5 or 6th on teh depth chart (assuming Phillips isn't dealt for him).

If we were going to go after an Islander's defencemen, I think Kenny Jonnson is the more logical guy to get, especially for a top 4 guy playing a reduced role. He's an injury risk, but with Ottawa's depth, I think may be worthwhile. I also think he could be landed for less, even the Pothier+Schastlivy package that you originally mentioned

Safir* 11-17-2003 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Volchenkov
I'm bored, so let's discuss the relative virtues of trading for Adrian Aucoin. The price as I see it would not be all that high considering that he is soon to be a UFA (this year or next). Aucoin would be ecstatic to come back to his home town with a legit chance at winning the cup there. With the sens D playing as poorly (compared to how well it could) as it is, it may be time to trade for that 6th top-4 D-man. Pothier or Hnidy (or both) would have to go to the Isles plus say Shastlivy and a pick/prospect.

Thoughts?

Earlier this season, I offered McEachern to the Isles for Aucoin. I was argued into the ground. Aucoin is the Isles #2 Dman, therefore the Isles will demand more in return. Shast or Pothier (and that pick/ prospect) are quantity, but not quality.

Therefore I think you may have to starting modeling a deal with Aucoin coming to OTT and Phillps going to the Island. Okay okay tough choice, but IMO Aucoin is one of the NHL's better defensemen.

Volchenkov 11-17-2003 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discostu
It quite simply won't be enough to land him. I'm pretty certain that he's not a UFA at the end of this year (I haven't seen his name on any of the lists of possible UFAs). If we wanted him, we'd have to offer something more substantial.

I don't know what the Islander's are looking for right now. I think they're still suffering with blue line depth, and if they traded for Aucoin, they need better players to fill out the d-men core. Pothier would be decent for them, but with Hamrlik and Niinima there, there isn't too much of a need for another offensive d-man.

I'm nearly certain the Milbury would want Phillips in return, and I don't think many Sens fans want to make that trade.

I also don't think he would gel well here. He's thrived on playing massive minutes for New York. If he came up here, he'd be buried on the depth chart. He wouldn't be any hire than third, and if he struggles, he could very well be 5 or 6th on teh depth chart (assuming Phillips isn't dealt for him).

If we were going to go after an Islander's defencemen, I think Kenny Jonnson is the more logical guy to get, especially for a top 4 guy playing a reduced role. He's an injury risk, but with Ottawa's depth, I think may be worthwhile. I also think he could be landed for less, even the Pothier+Schastlivy package that you originally mentioned

The Jonsson idea is interesting. I would do a Pothier+Shastlivy/Eaves/Mirnov for Jonsson.

Safir* 11-17-2003 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Volchenkov
The Jonsson idea is interesting. I would do a Pothier+Shastlivy/Eaves/Mirnov for Jonsson.

I don't want Jonsson. He's big, but he's not really physical plus he has a long history of injuries.

discostu 11-17-2003 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomACE
I don't want Jonsson. He's big, but he's not really physical plus he has a long history of injuries.

Well, that's why he wouldn't cost as much. Keep in mind, if we got him, it would be as a #5 d-man. When he's not injured, he's a very good top 4 guy. He may not be physical, but the guy he would be upgrading would be Pothier, who's not exactly punishing forwards out there right now.

I think he could be a pretty nice, inexpensive addition. He's a guy that would be a fitting replacement in our top 4 if one of the guys goes down.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomACE
Earlier this season, I offered McEachern to the Isles for Aucoin. I was argued into the ground. Aucoin is the Isles #2 Dman, therefore the Isles will demand more in return. Shast or Pothier (and that pick/ prospect) are quantity, but not quality.

Therefore I think you may have to starting modeling a deal with Aucoin coming to OTT and Phillps going to the Island. Okay okay tough choice, but IMO Aucoin is one of the NHL's better defensemen.

Yikes! McEachern for Aucoin! That is brutal dude, absolutely brutal. Even worse than the "Mac for Isbister" threads that once haunted this forum! :eek:

The Isles are not going to trade Aucoin. They are planning to keep the top four intact until at least after the summer, partially as reflection of their inexperience in goal. If they eventually do trade a dman, it will almost certainly not be Aucoin. He has been their best dman so far this season and looks to be headed toward a career year.

My personal take on Aucoin is that he is a bit overrated. He goes through periods where he is really on, but I think he is inconsistent in his physical game.

Besides, why in the world would a team that arguably has the best defense in the NHL trade for another dman?

Also, Pothier or Hnidy probably wouldn't even get you a mid round pick. The Isles have slews of defensemen in the #5 - #8 range (not high end talent, but bodies).

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Volchenkov
The Jonsson idea is interesting. I would do a Pothier+Shastlivy/Eaves/Mirnov for Jonsson.


Counter offer: Weinhandl/Mapletoft/Bergenheim & Cairns for Philips. That is the conceptual equivalent of your deal.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discostu
Well, that's why he wouldn't cost as much. Keep in mind, if we got him, it would be as a #5 d-man. When he's not injured, he's a very good top 4 guy. He may not be physical, but the guy he would be upgrading would be Pothier, who's not exactly punishing forwards out there right now.

I think he could be a pretty nice, inexpensive addition. He's a guy that would be a fitting replacement in our top 4 if one of the guys goes down.


Kenny has probably been the Isles #2 dman this year. His injury history does lower his trade value, but the Isles are not going to give him away for fringe players.

Dr.Sens(e) 11-17-2003 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Also, Pothier or Hnidy probably wouldn't even get you a mid round pick. The Isles have slews of defensemen in the #5 - #8 range (not high end talent, but bodies).

Actually, big difference in value for these two. I actually think the Sens could get a solid return for Pothier. He's proven he is a NHL d-man, and he has significant offensive upside. A spot in a quality top 4 down the road is a distinct possibility (if not probability).

That said, I'm certainly not going to pretend he and a pick would be enough for Aucoin. But maybe for a proven rental player at the deadline.

What the heck is goin' on in Long Island Darth? Is there really a firesale going on, or have these rumours been greatly exagerated?

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sens(e)
Actually, big difference in value for these two. I actually think the Sens could get a solid return for Pothier. He's proven he is a NHL d-man, and he has significant offensive upside. A spot in a quality top 4 down the road is a distinct possibility (if not probability).

That said, I'm certainly not going to pretend he and a pick would be enough for Aucoin. But maybe for a proven rental player at the deadline.

What the heck is goin' on in Long Island Darth? Is there really a firesale going on, or have these rumours been greatly exagerated?

There are conflicting reports. The latest statements in NEWSDAY suggest that the sitatuion is stable - for now. If there are anymore salary cuts, the guy to fall will likely be Parrish. Isles have said they will not break up their top four on defense or move Peca.

It is really hard to understand the Wiemer deal though, and I'm suspicious. The speed with which the Isles moved to unload him and the fact that they moved him at all is fairly surprising. Wiemer may not have been a stud but he filled a critical role on the Isles (a big tough guy who can play - sort of Scatchard on the wing). I think there is something up that none of us know about.

Dr.Sens(e) 11-17-2003 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
It is really hard to understand the Wiemer deal though, and I'm suspicious. The speed with which the Isles moved to unload him and the fact that they moved him at all is fairly surprising. Wiemer may not have been a stud but he filled a critical role on the Isles (a big tough guy who can play - sort of Scatchard on the wing). I think there is something up that none of us know about.

The thing that strikes me is it doesn't even seem like the Isles tried to trade Wiemer. Given the number of teams who went after him at the waiver draft, clearly one of them would have flipped a pick to the Isles to be at the front of the line. I know I would have been plenty happy to see the Sens send a mid-round pick to get him. He is a perfect playoff warrior type.

discostu 11-17-2003 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Counter offer: Weinhandl/Mapletoft/Bergenheim & Cairns for Philips. That is the conceptual equivalent of your deal.

It's nowhere near equivalent, and you know it.

Phillips doesn't have the injury history that Jonsson does, and is significantly younger and cheaper.

Pothier is a better d-man that Cairns (although they are opposite ends in style). In the playoffs, Cairn's was proven to be a major liability for the Islanders any time when he stepped onto the ice, while Pothier has been a victim of depth since being traded to Ottawa, yet was still able to handle himself without being a liability for the team when he was called upon in hte playoffs.

The prospect comparisons are apt, but that's about it.

If the Isles were looking to dump a d-man like Jonsson, Ottawa's package would be pretty fair. Keep in mind, many teams wouldn't touch him because of the concussion history.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discostu
It's nowhere near equivalent, and you know it.

Phillips doesn't have the injury history that Jonsson does, and is significantly younger and cheaper.

Pothier is a better d-man that Cairns (although they are opposite ends in style). In the playoffs, Cairn's was proven to be a major liability for the Islanders any time when he stepped onto the ice, while Pothier has been a victim of depth since being traded to Ottawa, yet was still able to handle himself without being a liability for the team when he was called upon in hte playoffs.

The prospect comparisons are apt, but that's about it.

If the Isles were looking to dump a d-man like Jonsson, Ottawa's package would be pretty fair. Keep in mind, many teams wouldn't touch him because of the concussion history.


Those deals are a lot more similar than you seem willing to admit. Phillips injury history is fairly extensive and, in fact, Kenny has been the healthier of the two players over the last few years. When both are at full strength, Kenny is every bit as effective, although their styles are different.

Cairns is, in my view, more valuable that Pothier. Cairns is not "a major liability for the Islanders." He has a lousy year last season but he has been a pretty responsible #6 dman. And, unlike Pothier, he actually brings a highly sought after commodity (grit and physical play) to the ice. Personally, I've never been impressed by Pothier and think he belongs in the AHL.

That deals are close to equivalent. And, if the Isles were looking to trade Kenny J., the above deal wouldn't come close to getting it done. Bottom line is that it is an offer of an AHL defensemen and a bunch of fringe prospects for a fairly strong top four guy.

Kenny J may have a concusion history but he is a solid dman and the Isles would have no trouble moving him whatsoever. To be honest, the suggestion that you could get a player of his caliber for this package of players is seriously unrealistic.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sens(e)
The thing that strikes me is it doesn't even seem like the Isles tried to trade Wiemer. Given the number of teams who went after him at the waiver draft, clearly one of them would have flipped a pick to the Isles to be at the front of the line. I know I would have been plenty happy to see the Sens send a mid-round pick to get him. He is a perfect playoff warrior type.

You're not the only one who was confused by this.

Dr.Sens(e) 11-17-2003 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Personally, I've never been impressed by Pothier and think he belongs in the AHL.

You have to admit Darth, you said Ottawa has arguably the top D in the league. So how does Pothier crack Ottawa's D if he's an AHLer at best? That logic escapes me, other than the fact you were put off by the trade offer and wanted to say something rather scathing back to try and prove your point.

Calling Pothier an AHLer is the equivalent of Sens fans calling a good half dozen of the Isles players minor leaguers. I suppose we can all say it, but in the end it just ain't so.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sens(e)
You have to admit Darth, you said Ottawa has arguably the top D in the league. So how does Pothier crack Ottawa's D if he's an AHLer at best? That logic escapes me, other than the fact you were put off by the trade offer and wanted to say something rather scathing back to try and prove your point.

Calling Pothier an AHLer is the equivalent of Sens fans calling a good half dozen of the Isles players minor leaguers. I suppose we can all say it, but in the end it just ain't so.


1996-97 R.P.I. NCAA 34 1 11 12 42
1997-98 R.P.I. NCAA 35 2 9 11 28
1998-99 R.P.I. NCAA 37 5 13 18 36
1999-00 R.P.I. NCAA 36 9 24 33 44
2000-01 Orlando Solar Bears IHL 76 12 29 41 69 16 3 5 8 11
2000-01 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 3 0 0 0 2 -- -- -- -- --
2001-02 Chicago Wolves AHL 39 6 13 19 30 -- -- -- -- --
2001-02 Atlanta Thrashers NHL 33 3 6 9 22 -- -- -- -- --
2002-03 Binghamton Senators AHL 68 7 40 47 58 8 2 8 10 4
2002-03 Ottawa Senators NHL 14 2 4 6 6 1 0 0 0 2
2003-04 Ottawa Senators NHL 12 0 2 2 10


Pothier is 27 YO and has never played a full season in the NHL. Not only has he had trouble cracking your lineup he hasn't been able to crack the Thrashers lineup when they were a second year expansion team. I called him an AHLer becaue he has spent nearly his entire career in the AHL and I am also not at all convinced that he can survive on a less talented team.

Now, you might argue that Pothier has taken a step forward recently, and to be honest I have not watched him closely this year. But, either way, that suggestion that Pothier could be the principal in a deal to land Aucoin or Jonnson is flat out absurd.

And, yeah, I still consider Ottawa's D to be the best in the league.

The Isles have a slew of players at Pothier's level (Martinek, Timander, Sven B.). I think they useful depth guys. However, I recognize their limits and I don't go around expecting them to be the type of trade bait that can bring a top four guy in return.

discostu 11-17-2003 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
Not only has he had trouble cracking your lineup he hasn't been able to crack the Thrashers lineup when they were a second year expansion team.

You mean when he got his shot halfway during the season, and then proceeded to be second in ice-time for the team?

Pothier is a definite NHL defencemen, and definitely a better defencemen than Cairns. Cairns may have size and physical play, but he's a pilon out there. It was clear during the playoff series last year, when the Islanders were overplaying their top 4, which wore them out by the end of the series. There wasn't the confidence in having their bottom pairing out there, as more often than not, they were getting burned.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discostu
You mean when he got his shot halfway during the season, and then proceeded to be second in ice-time for the team?

Pothier is a definite NHL defencemen, and definitely a better defencemen than Cairns. Cairns may have size and physical play, but he's a pilon out there. It was clear during the playoff series last year, when the Islanders were overplaying their top 4, which wore them out by the end of the series. There wasn't the confidence in having their bottom pairing out there, as more often than not, they were getting burned.


Fine. Pothier is better than Cairns. Who cares? The point with Cairns anyway is not his skill level - it is that he brings other attributes to the table (which Pothier does not).

Anyway, you slice it, it is still pretty ridiculous to expect Aucoin or Kenny J. in return for a guy like that. That is my main point. You're talking about a guy who wouldn't have a shot at the top four on most of the teams in the league. He isn't any better than Radnek Martinek or any of the other Islander depth dmen. Valuable guys -yeah. Worth a top four dman in return (even one with a concusion history) - absolutely not.

BTW, Pothier has averaged about 13 minutes an night of even strength time. I see little reason to believe he can play more than that on a regular basis on a team that wants to make the playoffs.

Spezza 11-17-2003 02:17 PM

In the land of make believe where the Isles want to dump one of there top 4 and no one else in the league can take him on - yeah sure maybe thats fair value. In the real world, I'm sure the Leafs would fancy a quality top 4 dman, I'm sure Vancouver would fancy a sniff - I'm sure half the damn league would fancy a look.

In the rent-a-player scenario then the market for a guy like Aucoin goes up. Best offer wins in that situation - It's a sellers market for a guy like Aucoin imho.

Darth Milbury 11-17-2003 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spezza
In the land of make believe where the Isles want to dump one of there top 4 and no one else in the league can take him on - yeah sure maybe thats fair value. In the real world, I'm sure the Leafs would fancy a quality top 4 dman, I'm sure Vancouver would fancy a sniff - I'm sure half the damn league would fancy a look.

In the rent-a-player scenario then the market for a guy like Aucoin goes up. Best offer wins in that situation - It's a sellers market for a guy like Aucoin imho.


Well that said, I can't dispute the point that many of you are making above. Ottawa has the best defense in the league. And, the fact that Pothier can manage to play close to 15 minutes a night on that team suggests that he has turned a corner in his career.

CREW99AW 11-17-2003 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discostu

If the Isles were looking to dump a d-man like Jonsson, Ottawa's package would be pretty fair. Keep in mind, many teams wouldn't touch him because of the concussion history.


someone should tell the Leafs because Berger reported that the Leafs asked for either hamrlik or Jonsson at the 2003 draft and were told that antropov would have to be in any Jonnson or hamrlik deal.

Jonsson's played 76 and 71 regular season games the last 2 yrs.Isles aren't dumping Jonsson cheaply.

CREW99AW 11-17-2003 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.Sens(e)
The thing that strikes me is it doesn't even seem like the Isles tried to trade Wiemer. Given the number of teams who went after him at the waiver draft, clearly one of them would have flipped a pick to the Isles to be at the front of the line. I know I would have been plenty happy to see the Sens send a mid-round pick to get him. He is a perfect playoff warrior type.

Slam reported a week before the first Weimer on the move rumors surfaced,that the isles were talking to the Flames about Weimer.My guess is the isles didn't want much(if any) salary back and the Flames didn't want to pay a 3rd liner $1.6m unless they were moving some salary out.

then once the news broke that the isles would waive Weimer if unable to trade him,they were boxed into a corner.Not many teams wanted to add that much salary and the few teams that were interested, could gamble he'd be available on waivers for free.

discostu 11-17-2003 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CREW99AW
someone should tell the Leafs because Berger reported that the Leafs asked for either hamrlik or Jonsson at the 2003 draft and were told that antropov would have to be in any Jonnson or hamrlik deal.

Jonsson's played 76 and 71 regular season games the last 2 yrs.Isles aren't dumping Jonsson cheaply.

Well, we'll have to disagree. I think if the Islanders did look to move Kenny J., that a solid #6 guy and a winger with 20 goal potential, both of whom are signed to dirt cheap contracts, would probably be a pretty good offer for a solid #4 guy, but who has a concussion history, which has a knack for reducing a player's value, and who makes $3 mil a season.


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