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Pred303 12-20-2006 03:58 PM

Some Pred Stat Stuff
a few updated stats and an added thought or two on what they mean;

...we now have the best record in the league when we outshoot our opponents. (.800 winning %). of course we have a pretty decent winning percentage when we're outshot by our opponents also (.619), 7th best in the league then as well.

..we have the 6th best record when we score first (.778).

...when we give up the first goal, our winning percentage drops to .533, however, this winnning percentage is actually the 3rd highest in the league after giving up the first goal.

this brings to mind, something many fans don't really understand except superficially. scoring the first goal allows a team to choose the type of game they want the game to become (and why league-wide, the team that scores first has a winning percentage of greater than 70%,versus less than a 30% chance of coming back once you give up the first goal). if you're a trapping team or just a shut down defensive team, if you score the first goal, you then change how the game is played from that point on as long as you can hold the lead. (just like STL was able to do against us in these last two games for example). teams like this, or teams that feel they have less speed or talent than you (which right now includes most every team in the league to be frank), start doing things different that are almost guaranteed to slow the game down and lower the final score. once ahead, these teams make sure the following happen. 1)that their dmen always stay back and rarely join in any rushes. that way they reduce any chance at 2 on 1's the other way. 2)they make sure they chip the puck in deep every single possession so that they can set up their defense and trap if they want. 3)they make sure they never have more than two forwards deep in the zone and that one forward is always back in the slot to prevent quick breakouts and 3 on 2's the other way.

the game simply changes in many ways. probably 20 of the teams in the league right now play exactly this way once they get a lead (one of the reasons scoring is down this year from last year). they then sit back and try to take advantage of any mistakes the trailing team makes in trying to force the play. hoping for a neutral zone turnover and quick strike odd man rush back the other way because the other team loses patience or takes chances.

about all a team can do to counter this strategy safely is to play conservatively themselves (note how often our fans scream here to 'take more chances' instead of doing what needs to be done), simply grind thru the neutral zone, and hopefully grind out an even strength goal to tie again, or hope that your pp can make up the deficit, because if you don't, and take chances, well generally you're doing exactly what the other team wants you to do, and you run the big risk of falling even farther behind playing like they want you to play. these type of games, you always hear our fans afterwards say things like "we didn't play hard", or "we weren't ready to play" or "we didn't show up", when it was the situation and then the pace of the game itself due to that situation most nights that screwed things away from what we do best, not usually the effort.

this having to grind out a win in a come from behind situation is where we need players like arnott the most. get ahead and force an open game without a guy like him and we're ok because of our speed. get behind, and you need players that can win puck battles in the corners and in front of the net most nights. fortunately, we got leads in most of the games he was injured. but this is also why we were so vulnerable during this stretch if we got behind (which is the exact reason we really got this guy, for situations like this. last year's SJ series being a perfect example of this whole problem). speed, skating ability and quick strike counterattacking ability (which really describes us) is oftentimes negated by a team playing ahead.

this ability to catch teams once they close the game down and turn it into a slugging contest is also why and when the pp is so critical as well. it's the one way a speed, skating team can use to catch up to teams once you fall behind and they try to slow the game down even strength. note in games we've trailed early, that if we score a pp or two that game we almost always have been able to come from behind and win. when we don't in these type games, well we almost always lose.

when we score first, and play from ahead, we're one of the best teams in the league (and to be completely honest, possibly the best team in the league). not many teams can skate with us, not up and down the lineup, not really in a wide open, skating non-trapping game.

just something to look at when you think about our strengths and weaknesses and are trying to analyze what you just saw or why a game played out the way it did many times.

Pred303 12-26-2006 04:25 PM

a very random idea for thought this morning...

team's play better at home, we all know that. much better. for example, as of this morning, the 15 teams in the west are a combined 160-84-25 at home this year (a .641 winning percentage). on the road, these same 15 teams are a combined 111-132-19 (only a .458 winning percentage). so, in general, a team has about a 20% greater chance of winning any specific game at home than they do on the road. statistically, this is a huge difference of course.

but why?...

obviously there are three main reasons that we are all conscious of that make a team better at home than on the road. 1)last change, probably the biggest advantage a home team has of course. allows the home team to choose matchups they want after every stop in play. this accounts for most of the reason the home team is slightly better even strength at home. 2)faceoffs. the home team gains a slight advantage in that the visitor has to place his stick on the ice first. in general the home team wins a slightly higher % of faceoffs than they do on the road (not really significantly statistically however). 3)then of course you have the motivational factor of playing before your home fans, the increase in comfort and energy that is huge, if largely unquantifiable in hard numbers.

these three things are fairly easy to understand. in general these things apply more to difference in even strength performance of the home team versus the road team when you stop and think about it.

however, the thing that has always been the biggest mystery to me about home/road performance in general is really seperate from these things. special teams. you would assume that the home team 'gets' more calls than the visitors as far as penalties what with refs being human, and they do. home teams draw slightly more penalties than visiting teams, so home teams in general get slightly more pp's per game than the visitors, but the number difference is not as large as you would think.

one of the main differences in home/road success winds up being performance of teams special teams at home versus on the road. raw percentages of the pp and and the pk lean heavily toward the home team. an area that somewhat defies pure logic, but one that historically has always been. you can see where even strength home energy and emotion would make a big difference, but it would seem that special teams should be a slightly different animal, but it isn't.

take the pp for instance. at home, our pp is at 22.6%. on the road it falls to 14.8%. this isn't a statistical anomaly either. 23 of the 30 teams have a significantly higher pp% at home than on the road.

the pk is the same of course. we happen to have very similiar numbers on the pk at home as we do on the road. 85.3% at home, versus 85.3% on the road. but this isn't the league norm. 22 of the 30 teams in the league have a significantly lower pk% on the road than at home. (in fact, our pk being far better than most on the road is probably one of the main reasons we've been an outstanding road team).

i know hockey, i've worked at understanding hockey and what makes teams good and what statistics mean for many years. this difference in home/road special team performance has always been one of the harder areas for me to completely grasp. part of it, is no doubt raw emotion. part of it is the slight difference in faceoffs (more important on special teams than even strength). but these differences don't completely explain the difference in home/road special team performance to me.

anyway something different to mention and talk about.

Pred303 12-26-2006 04:28 PM

and one other thing;

this will without a doubt jinx him for tonight's game. but here goes anyway.

legwand on the penalty kill.

after saturday's game, when he scored the shorthanded penalty shot. legwand has now played more than 70 consecutive minutes of pk time where the pk has not allowed a pp goal with him on ice. since game two (the Minnesota pk fiasco game where we gave up 5 pp goals), the opposing team has not scored a pp goal with legwand on ice on the pk for 34 consecutive games now. for the year now, legwand has been on ice for only 2 pp goals allowed this season (lapointe in game one for CHI, gaborik in game two for MIN). and during that time we have now scored 4 shorthanded goals (legwand, sully 2, erat).

an amazing stat, certainly one that is partly due to some randomness and luck, but still credit has to be given when. one i've never seen anyone else mention

Nitrous Mafia 12-26-2006 05:11 PM

Wow, great posts.

I feel like I just took Hockey 105.

Pred303 12-27-2006 05:04 PM

a few more pred stats you might not see anywhere else;

...sully and legwand are both tied for 21st in the league in plus/minus at +13

...legwand is 4th in the league for plus/minus in road games at +11, sullivan is 11th at +9

...among all rookies, radulov is 2nd in the league in plus/minus at +8, 3rd in goal scoring and 8th in points

...mason has now moved up to the 2nd highest save percentage in the league at .927 (huet leads at .931), his gaa is now 8th best in the league at 2.35

...kariya is now 11th in the league in assists with 27, erat is 14th with 26, sullivan is 18th with 25

...dumont has scored the first goal of the game 4 times now

... many like to compare these two.. shea weber now has as many points as dion phaneuf (19) in an average of almost 8 minutes per game less playing time. weber has outscored phaneuf 12-6 even strength this year. official hits - phaneuf 75, weber 74

...when outshooting our opponents, the preds now have the best record in the league (.818).. when outshot we have the 5th best record in the league (.625)

...when scoring the first goal of the game the preds have the 3rd best record in the league (.800). when getting scored on first the preds also have the 3rd best record in the league (.529).

...28 of the 30 teams in the league have a winning percentage of better than .500 when they score the first goal of the game. only three of the thirty teams have a winning percentage of greater than .500 when the other team scores the first goal. (BUF .667, ANA .636, NSH .529).. a good example of how important the first goal usually is.

JussiM 12-27-2006 08:00 PM

Some amazing work on the stats. Kudos! :clap:

golfmade 12-27-2006 08:37 PM

I think I read on NHL.com that when Kariya scores we are 10-0-0

PeterAngelo 12-28-2006 04:16 AM

im hoping for a kariya goal vs dallas on friday then ;)

great job pred303. very informative, is nice learning stuff about the game especially when you are a novice like me.

Pred303 12-28-2006 04:14 PM

we've talked quite a bit about our "balanced scoring attack". but how do we actually compare to other teams?.

we currently are tied for most players with 10 or more goals heading into the midway point of the season with 6. NAS, ANA, BUF, COL, CAR each have 6 guys in double digit goals scored.

NAS, ANA, COL have the most players in the league with 7 or more goals scored (9)

NAS has the most players with 5 or more goals scored in the league (11), followed by ANA and COL (10).

on the other end of the spectrum.. PHO only has one 10 goal scorer, perreault with 10. and CLB, PHI, VAN and MIN only have two each 10 goal or more scorers.

Pred303 12-31-2006 05:39 PM

a little known fact or two;

with his two points last night, legwand passed scott walker and became the second all-time leading predator point scorer. points as a pred as of today;

timonen 252
legwand 248
walker 247
johnson 238
ronning 226
hartnell 197

current all time goal predator goal scorers;

walker 96
johnson 93
legwand 90
hartnell 86
ronning 81

just a factoid or two i haven't heard anywhere else

Pred303 01-01-2007 09:20 AM

a few more thoughts in general;

...we need erat to start scoring some goals. a 15 goal pace now almost halfway thru the season is not enough, considering he's not only skating with two good playmakers on our most dangerous line, but he's getting tons of 1st unit pp time as well. really expected this guy to score 25 plus goals this year with his shooting ability and the linemates and time he's getting. need to get him going.

...radulov in a bit of a goal scoring slump himself despite getting more and more minutes every week. the problem is simple. he's a sniper, and needs to have a playmaker putting the puck on his stick in places he can score from. and yet, he's playing with a couple of grinders who simply aren't playmakers. vasicek and fiddler aren't either the ideal type of guy to sit up a guy who is a sniper, they simply don't create enough space, draw enough attention to themselves to get rads open looks, or at not fast enough to create odd man rushes the other way to create open ice for him. we need to get him more shots. we need to get him better scoring opportunites.

...nothing shows our top three line balance better than our overall plus/minus stats. every single player on the team is in the plus column, except for our 4th line guys. when all of your defensemen are plus, it shows there's lots of balanced scoring for sure. 5 guys right now at or greater than +10. legwand at +15, hartnell and sully at +12, radulov at +11, and suter at +10.

...we've only ever had four players finish at +10 or greater total in our history heading into this year (eaton +16 and erat at +10 in 03-04, upshall at +14 and hamhuis at +10 in 05-06)

...i keep harping on the fact that legwand's inability to win faceoffs seriously impacts on the role he plays. because of this, notice when we have a draw in the defensive end, we are forced to play a second center out there to take the draw, because they're scared to let legwand take it in the danger zone. this disrupts the normal first line when this happens, his lack of faceoff ability has to be one of the primary reasons we don't get him more pp time as well which is unfortunate to all, because he's probably the best we have at running the team off the halfboard and the best we have at carrying the puck in the zone. so this really hurts us on the pp i think.

....to demonstrate his problems here, there are 82 centers in the league with enough faceoffs to qualify for consideration. legwand is easily dead last in the league in faceoff percentage among these 82 guys. (41.6%). he's never been good here, but this is the worst he's ever done for some reason. a shame, because it's costing him playing time and hurting us on our overall pp i think.

Pred303 01-03-2007 04:09 PM

who's hot and who's not in our last ten games played;

kariya.. 14 points (6 goals)
sullivan..9 points (3 goals)
dumont.. 9 points (2 goals)
timonen.. 9 points (1 goal)

legwand.. 7 points (3 goals)
arnott.. 7 points (5 goals)
erat... 7 points (1 goal)
radulov.. 7 points (2 goals)
hartnell.. 6 points (4 goals)

vasicek.. 3 points (1 goal)
smithson.. 3 points (1 goal)
weber.. 2 points (1 goal)
zidlicky.. 2 points (0 goals)
hamhuis.. 2 points (1 goal)
suter.. 2 points (0 goals)
tootoo.. 2 points (0 goals)
nichol.. 1 point (1 goal)
fiddler.. 1 point (0 goals)
hordichuk.. 0 points

....erat with only 3 goals scored now in his last 32 games played, the worst goal scoring slump since his rookie year.
...zidlicky hasn't scored a goal since november 25th. 18 straight games now.

Pred303 01-04-2007 04:50 PM

a few more stats, these illustrating consistency or lack thereof...

after game 40, point scoring in each block of 10 games this year (goals in parenthesis)

player..games 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40

kariya.... 9(2), 9(2), 9(2), 14(6)
sullivan.. 8(3), 13(3), 6(2), 7(3)
erat......11(4), 6(1), 9(1), 7(1)
legwand..7(2), 8(4), 6(2), 7(3)
arnott.....10(5), 6(2), 0, 7(5)

hartnell...7(5), 2(0), 10(6), 6(4)
dumont.. 6(3), 9(2), 5(1), 9(2)
fiddler.... 2(0), 4(3), 2(1), 1(0)
radulov... 1(1), 1(1), 9(7), 7(2)
vasicek... 1(1), 0, 5(1), 3(1)

weber..... 7(0), 4(3), 7(2), 2(1)
timonen... 6(1), 6(2), 7(3), 9(1)
suter....... 5(1), 5(3), 1(0), 2(0)
zidlicky.... 6(1), 4(0), 7(2), 2(0)
hamhuis... 0, 3(1), 2(0), 2(1)

..note the consistency of point scoring in the lineup for many for each of the 4 ten game stretches.
..note that hartnell is probably our 'streakiest' player (always has been), but that a few others tend to be as well (sully,zids)
..note that our overall defenseman scoring has been down significantly these last ten games.
..note that for each ten game period, we have had one player average better than a point per game and each time it's been a different guy

anyway, just an obscure stat breakdown

Pred303 01-05-2007 05:16 PM

an update for the entire team on the pk from a post a month ago..

we've now allowed a total of 30 pp goals in 40 games played this year, players on ice for each pp goal allowed;

forwards; (ppga on ice for, total pk minutes played);

erat 3, 33
kariya 0, 8
legwand 2, 84
sullivan 10, 109
hartnell 6, 61
fiddler 7, 89
smithson 11, 109
nichol 10, 102
vasicek 3, 21


timonen 14, 153
zanon 8, 100
hamhuis 19, 174
weber 3, 39
suter 13, 153
zidlicky 1, 11
lehtonen 2, 31

...note how close the average pk minutes played per goal allowed is for most all is (roughly 1 per 10 minutes of average sh time)


and an update to the post about legwand on the pk from a couple of weeks back..

remember i had noted the oddity that legwand hadn't been on ice on the penalty kill for a powerplay goal allowed since the second game of the year.. and for only two the entire year (1 in game one, then 1 in game 2)..

well the streak continues.. he now has played slightly over 80 consecutive penalty kill minutes without being on ice for a pp goal allowed (despite playing an ever increasing number of pk minutes lately).. a streak of 38 consecutive games now..

during his entire 84:29 of pk time this year, we have allowed 2 pp goals, while scoring 4 shorthanded goals..

somewhat of a fluky stat i suppose, but nevertheless an eye-catching one...

i'm sure that streak will end here shortly, it has to.

Pred303 01-09-2007 04:19 PM

goals scored/allowed comparisons between current pace and last season final numbers for the team;

..this year we're on pace to finish with 273 goals scored. last year's total was 253 goals scored. especially notable, since overall league scoring is actually down.

..we're on pace to now give up 211 goals this year, down from last year's 224. mainly due to an improved pk, but also an improved save percentage from our goalies overall. shots against remain roughly the same (32.4 per game versus 32.5 per game last year)

..we're on pace to score 78 pp goals this year, down significantly from last year's 94 pp goals scored. our pp percentage is virtually the same as last year, however we're averaging right at 1 pp opportunity per game less than last year that causes the drop. the league is down about the same percentage on the whole, about 1 less pp per team per game overall, therefore total pp scoring is down about cross the board from last year as well.

..we're on pace to give up 4 shorthanded goals this year, a huge improvement from the 13 we gave up last season.

..we're on pace to give up 59 pp goals to the opposition. significantly below last year's 82. part of this is due to the fact tht we are also averaging taking about 1 penalty less per game than last year, but also part due to the fact that our pk has a better kill percentage. our pk is simply better than it was, surprisingly.

..we're on pace to score 14 shorthanded goals this year, compared to last year's 12.

..we're on pace to score 172 five on five goals this year. way up from last year's 137...we're also on pace to give up more 5 on 5 goals than last year, 137. versus last year's 117. couple of reasons for these numbers. first off there is slightly more 5 on 5 time this year due to their being a couple less penalty calls on average per game. but bottomline is we are simply this much improved even strength as a team overall.

..we're on pace to only score 4 four on four goals and give up 6 this year. of course we only scored 4 four on four last year as well and gave up 8. we still should be a better four on four team however, with our personnel.

..we're on pace to score 6 five on three goals and give up 12. significantly worse than last year when we scored 16 and gave up 7. this shortfall remains a mystery. we were amoung the best in the league at it last year on both sides of the puck. we add talent, and we get worse. makes little sense with the people we have offensively.

a couple of very obscure facts... we're now shooting 11.9% as a team. third highest in the league (BUF 12.6%, ANA 12.1%)... we're limiting the opposition to only 7.9% shooting overall. (lowest in the league along with NJD also at 7.9%).. outshooting your opponent by 4% is a huge statistical difference, by far the best in the league. speaks directly to the high number of odd man rushes we generate, and the finishing ability of our players. on the other end, it shows we're doing an overall great job of keeping high percentage scoring chances to a minimum, and forcing large numbers of low percentage shots. shows as a whole that the d-men are doing a good job of reducing the number of odd man rushes and breakaways. shows what a fine job mason and vokoun have done as well of course.

Pred303 01-13-2007 12:12 PM

you look at the standings and stats this morning and things look pretty good;

..we really are nipping at anaheim's heals for the western lead. same number of wins, 30, with us still with two games in hand. 4 points up on the wings both with 44 games played. we're right there people, right where we wanted to be.

..we're now up to 15-3-3 at home, and 12-3-1 against the central division (meaning we're exactly halfway finished against our division).

..current winning percentage means we're on pace for 117 points. play only .500 hockey for the remainder of the season now and we still finish with 101 points.

..we're now 17-3-3 in one goal games.

..we lead the league in best record when we outshoot our opponent (10-2). however, only Washington has outshot their opponent fewer games than we have (11 versus our 12 times).

..of course to counter this, we've won more games than any other team when being outshot (19-9-2). (we're 1-0-1 with both teams having the same number of shots).

..we're now 18-3-1 when we lead after the first period, but only 4-6-1 when trailing after the first period. we've only trailed after 2 periods 8 times this year, going 2-6 in those.

..we're 20-1-3 when leading after 2 periods and 8-4-0 when tied after two.

..we're now 21-4-1 when we score first, and 9-7-2 when the other team scores first.

PeterAngelo 01-14-2007 09:14 PM

this question to pred303 or anyone else good with stats or information. As the all star game approaches i was just wondering if anyone had the win loss record of nashville at 45 games or whatever it is this time last season and also maybe the points leaders for our team at this stage last season? thanks if you can help.

Pred303 01-14-2007 10:45 PM


Originally Posted by AusPredsfan (Post 7670917)
this question to pred303 or anyone else good with stats or information. As the all star game approaches i was just wondering if anyone had the win loss record of nashville at 45 games or whatever it is this time last season and also maybe the points leaders for our team at this stage last season? thanks if you can help.

after 45 games last year we were 28-12-5 for 61 points, and in fourth place. (compared to our current 31-11-3, 65pts)

Joe T Choker 01-14-2007 11:20 PM

118 points is a pretty good pace :amazed: :eek: :yo:

Pred303 01-20-2007 02:22 PM

..legwand's goal moved him past greg johnson as the 2nd alltime predator goalscoring leader (94).. now only two behind scott walker (96)...

..preds with 8 guys now +11 or better. 15 guys at + 5 or better. makes smithson's -5 and toot's -9 look like misprints.

..legwand going +2 takes him back to +23 for the year, 4th overall in the league and 2nd among all forwards (vanek at +24)

..preds now an unbelievable 15-0 when kariya scores a goal. sure it's somewhat a random stat, but still.

..current goal and point pace;
kariya.. 27, 87
sully.. 26, 77
erat.. 15, 67
legwand.. 26, 65
dumont.. 15, 62
timonen.. 14, 56
arnott.. 27, 53
hartnell.. 31, 50
weber.. 14, 43
zidlicky.. 5, 39
radulov.. 19, 34

..preds with best record in the league when outshooting their opponent, and 2nd best record in the league when being outshot. preds with best record in the league at home (17-3-3 tied with detroit), and second most wins in the league on the road.

Pred303 01-21-2007 08:53 AM

waking up this morning, things look just as good as they did when i went to bed..

..preds now first in the league in wins, first in the league in fewest losses, first in the league in winning percentage, first in the league in points

..2nd in the league in goal scoring (3.45/g).. which translates into a pace for 283 goals for the year (30 more than last year, in a league where goal scoring is down year over year fairly significantly)

..meanwhile, we're 7th in fewest goals allowed (2.53/g).. which translates into a pace of only 207 goals allowed versus last year's 224.

..scored a goal in 12 consecutive first periods now, the longest such string in the NHL this year.

..we've now outscored our opponents 131-73 in the first two periods combined

..we're 17-3-3 in one goal games, 5-5 in two goal games, and 12-4 in games decided by three goals or more

..at 18-3-3, we have the best home record in the league (.813). even better than last year's league leading 32-8-1 (.792), which i wouldn't have thought would have been possible. add in that the preds are second in the league in road wins.

..legwand and hartnell are now on pace to score 30 goals each.

..shea weber is now 15th in the league in hits, and 25th in scoring among defensemen. and he's frigging still a baby

lstcyr 01-21-2007 10:25 AM


Originally Posted by Pred303 (Post 7745153)
..scored a goal in 12 consecutive first periods now, the longest such string in the NHL this year.

I love your stats :highclap: but where do you find information like the longest string of scoring a goal in the first period?? :amazed:

nine_inch_fang 01-21-2007 10:46 AM


Originally Posted by lstcyr (Post 7745567)
I love your stats :highclap: but where do you find information like the longest string of scoring a goal in the first period?? :amazed:

Way too much time spent sifting through printed out stat sheets.:shakehead :)

Pred303 01-23-2007 05:00 PM

a few random stats to pass the time;

...we've scored first in 31 of our 49 games. the most times in the league. we're 25-5-1 in those games (and 9-7-2 in the games we haven't scored first)

...we have four different players that have scored the first goal of a game four times each. (dumont, kariya, hartnell, arnott) and two more guys that have scored the first goal of the game three times each (legwand, fiddler).

...legwand and arnott now tied for the team lead in game winning goals (5 each). both tied for 6th most in the league. legwand with the game winning goal in each of our last three wins. legwand with a knack for getting game winners in his career, 25 game winning now goals out of the 97 total goals scored.

...legwand now 6th in the league in shooting percentage (20.5%). radulov needs three shots to qualify among league leaders (his 23.4% would place him 2nd if he had enough to qualify)

...our home pp percentage is 6th best in the league (21.6%), however our road pp percentage is only 24th best in the league (13.1%).. a strange stat.
...conversely, our home pk percentage is 8th at 86.8%, while our road pk percentage is also 8th overall at 83.7%.

..our 8 team shutouts this year, is tied for most by any team in the league with NJ.

Pred303 02-05-2007 04:33 PM

some really obscure things here about our pp performance this season so far that you probably won't see anywhere else;

...here we are at game 54, we've now scored 49 pp goals this season total;

...in our first 27 games, we scored 24 pp goals
...in our last 27 games, we scored 25 pp goals
some amazingly consistent numbers obviously.

interestingly, when we have scored our powerplay goals has changed significantly however;

...the first 27 games we scored 11 pp goals in the first period, 12 in the second period, and only 1 in the third period.
...these last 27 games however we scored only 2 pp goals in the first period, 13 in the second period, and 10 in the third or overtime.

so, a person could make the argument that lately we have been scoring pp goals in what tend to be more critical times (i.e. the third period).. coincides with our better performance in the third period overall compared to the first half of the season

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