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-   -   Shots on goal - an interesting stat (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=32938)

David A. Rainer 12-02-2003 08:03 PM

Shots on goal - an interesting stat
 
Inspired by the recent Kings lost that once again saw them lead in shots on goal and lose, I decided to look at some stats regarding shots on goal. (All stats are updated to game played thru Dec. 1)

The team with the most shots on goal in any particular game will average 27.7 shots.

The team with the least shots on goal in any particular game will average 26.8 shots.

That's about one more shot on average for the winner than the loser. Not exactly a whopping margin.

The overall record of teams that led the game in shots on goal is 159-135-47. That's 24 games above .500 or a .535 winning%.

What it means is open to interpretation. Clearly, you have a better than a coin flip's chance of winning a game if you lead that particular game in shots. But as far as I'm concerned, it does not appear to be comparable to the amount of stress analysts/commentators place on the stat. Often, shots on goal are a result of being behind and pouring it on late in the game as the leading team packs it in. Essentially, what it boils down to is that if you are leading a game in shots on goal, there is a 53.5% chance that the stat is an indicator of your dominance in the game and a 46.5% chance that the stat is an indicator that you're behind in the game. Not exactly the most telling of stats.

Thoughts?

Sydor25 12-02-2003 09:03 PM

It all comes down to Save Percentage. ;)

agentfouser 12-02-2003 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathFromAbove
What it means is open to interpretation. Clearly, you have a better than a coin flip's chance of winning a game if you lead that particular game in shots. But as far as I'm concerned, it does not appear to be comparable to the amount of stress analysts/commentators place on the stat. Often, shots on goal are a result of being behind and pouring it on late in the game as the leading team packs it in. Essentially, what it boils down to is that if you are leading a game in shots on goal, there is a 53.5% chance that the stat is an indicator of your dominance in the game and a 46.5% chance that the stat is an indicator that you're behind in the game. Not exactly the most telling of stats.

Thoughts?

i wouldn't say that its an indicator of your dominance in a game; that's really an intangilble that can't be quantified. rather, leading in shots on goal probably means that, at the very least, your shots are getting through. not that you're applying more pressure, getting more quality opportunities like scrambles in front of the net, or anything else. just that your shots are getting through to the goalie.

it seems like many other statistics in not-easily-quantifiable evndeavors like hockey: it can be used as a piece of empirical evidence to support a claim, such as "our team is playing well because we're outshooting our opponents," or, it can be completely disregarded by noting that the team with more shots only wins 53% of the time.

The VEGASKING 12-03-2003 06:16 AM

It's not the quantity, it's the quality. Many times when a team gets 30-40 shots they're coming from the outside in the "just throw it at the net" strategy. If you're just throwing wrist shots from the boards with no traffic you can get 1000 shots on goal and you wont ever score. Sure it will look impressive in the box score but that doesnt win games.

David A. Rainer 12-03-2003 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VEGASKING
It's not the quantity, it's the quality.

That's what I say every time AM or Jim Fox mention that the Kings are leading in shots on goal. I'm just trying to dispell the myth that the blanket statement "leading in shots on goal leads to wins". It's not the number of shots you get, it's the quality of shots.

If you look at the Team Shots On Goal category, you'll see from top to bottom it basically goes good team, then bad team, then good team, then bad team... and so on. But if you look at shooting%, all the good teams are at the top and all the bad teams are at the bottom. It's not quantity, it's quality.

The Scoring Chances stat is as subjective as it gets, but it is a better indicator than just shots on goal.


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