HFBoards

HFBoards (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/index.php)
-   Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=3)
-   -   Jason Smith's value? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=43220)

disles1 01-12-2004 12:25 PM

Jason Smith's value?
 
What is his salary? Is he a UFA? If the oil drop out of the race what could they get back for him? What would they want from the isles? Thanks!!

Bicycle Repairman 01-12-2004 12:30 PM

Smith will still be a Group II RFA, unless of course, the age for unrestricted status drops.

Given those circumstances, I'd guess he would warrant no more than a third or fourth round pick.

Dr Love 01-12-2004 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bicycle Repairman
Smith will still be a Group II RFA, unless of course, the age for unrestricted status drops.

But the CBA doesn't expire until September, so he would still be a Group II RFA. I've overlooked this myself a couple of times.

Cerebral 01-12-2004 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bicycle Repairman
Smith will still be a Group II RFA, unless of course, the age for unrestricted status drops.

Given those circumstances, I'd guess he would warrant no more than a third or fourth round pick.

A third or fourth round pick? He'll fetch a lot more than that on the market if the Oilers start to flounder.. he is having a superb season and is still in his prime as a tenacious defender. Likewise, his salary is very reasonable for most teams looking to add a gritty #3/4 d-man..

Bicycle Repairman 01-12-2004 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Love
But the CBA doesn't expire until September, so he would still be a Group II RFA. I've overlooked this myself a couple of times.

That would marginally push up his value, but say he only agrees to a one year deal, then you're back to square one.

Bicycle Repairman 01-12-2004 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cerebral
A third or fourth round pick? He'll fetch a lot more than that on the market if the Oilers start to flounder.. he is having a superb season and is still in his prime as a tenacious defender. Likewise, his salary is very reasonable for most teams looking to add a gritty #3/4 d-man..

Unlikely that the Oilers would get anything more than a warm body. They're better off shooting for the pick.

Smith is worth slightly more than Bob Boughner (who returned a conditional fourth/fifth rounder).

BrianBurke 01-12-2004 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bicycle Repairman
Unlikely that the Oilers would get anything more than a warm body. They're better off shooting for the pick.

I like Smith, I really do... but from a Vancouver Canucks perspective, we probably couldn't fit him onto our blueline very well, so we'd probably take a pass.

Mizral 01-12-2004 12:43 PM

BR, I think Smith is worth a fair bit more than Boughner. Yes he's better than Boughner, but let's not forget Smith brings a heck of a lot of leadership to a dressing room. I think the Oilers could nab a good 2nd rounder from a team like Toronto or New Jersey, looking to bolster their blueline in a Cup run. I'd say a good comparison to Glen Wesley last year. Because Smith is only an RFA instead of Wesley being a UFA, I could see that pick being in the #31 - #40 range. (also to note, the Wesley pick was a year later 2nd round pick, not a 2nd pick of that year)

Bicycle Repairman 01-12-2004 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizral
BR, I think Smith is worth a fair bit more than Boughner. Yes he's better than Boughner, but let's not forget Smith brings a heck of a lot of leadership to a dressing room. I think the Oilers could nab a good 2nd rounder from a team like Toronto or New Jersey, looking to bolster their blueline in a Cup run. I'd say a good comparison to Glen Wesley last year. Because Smith is only an RFA instead of Wesley being a UFA, I could see that pick being in the #31 - #40 range. (also to note, the Wesley pick was a year later 2nd round pick, not a 2nd pick of that year)


I think your "leadership" comparison argument is rendered moot, seeing how Boughner was also a co-captain in Calgary.

Slats432 01-12-2004 01:01 PM

Are you guys saying the NHL Defensman with the 8th best +/- in the NHL on a non playoff Oiler team is only worth a 2nd rounder? A warm body? His stats this year are better than.....(including offensive)

Kaberle
Jonsson
Phillips
Poti
Markov
Stevens
Sydor
Hamrlik
DeVries
Chelios
Fischer
Norstrom

And the list goes on and on. I am not saying that anyone should give up the farm for Jason Smith, but at least try to buck up something reasonable.

Boondock Saint 01-12-2004 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizral
I think the Oilers could nab a good 2nd rounder from a team like Toronto or New Jersey, looking to bolster their blueline in a Cup run. I'd say a good comparison to Glen Wesley last year. Because Smith is only an RFA instead of Wesley being a UFA, I could see that pick being in the #31 - #40 range.

Unfortuanately, teams like Toronto and New Jersey aren't likely to possess picks in the #31-#40 range. They'll be #23-#30 range, then not again until the late fifties.

Do you think it's possible that J. Smith could bring back a first? I think the fact that he's a RFA, not UFA next year could coax a late first from someone desperate at the deadline.

disles1 01-12-2004 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slats432
Are you guys saying the NHL Defensman with the 8th best +/- in the NHL on a non playoff Oiler team is only worth a 2nd rounder? A warm body? His stats this year are better than.....(including offensive)

Kaberle
Jonsson
Phillips
Poti
Markov
Stevens
Sydor
Hamrlik
DeVries
Chelios
Fischer
Norstrom

And the list goes on and on. I am not saying that anyone should give up the farm for Jason Smith, but at least try to buck up something reasonable.

Slats---what would you want from the isles---excluding their top 4 d guys. How about a young forward and a #2 pick?

Bicycle Repairman 01-12-2004 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slats432
am not saying that anyone should give up the farm for Jason Smith, but at least try to buck up something reasonable.

Well of course, Smith's value will also be contingent upon the Kevin Lowe Trade Surcharge.
:joker:

If Mike Comrie could only bring back prospects himself, why would Jason Smith fetch anything approaching an impact player?

Face it Oiler fans. Lowe is hooped and the other NHL GMs know it.

Slats432 01-12-2004 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bicycle Repairman
Well of course, Smith's value will also be contingent upon the Kevin Lowe Trade Surcharge.
:joker:

If Mike Comrie could only bring back prospects himself, why would Jason Smith fetch anything approaching an impact player?

Face it Oiler fans. Lowe is hooped and the other NHL GMs know it.

If you are using the Comrie situation to compare Smith's value to, then you and I are done talking in this thread.(Because that is trying to measure Mark Savard's value to Chris Drury's)

Get back to me with an arguement that makes sense.

Oilhitch 01-12-2004 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bicycle Repairman
Well of course, Smith's value will also be contingent upon the Kevin Lowe Trade Surcharge.
:joker:

If Mike Comrie could only bring back prospects himself, why would Jason Smith fetch anything approaching an impact player?

Face it Oiler fans. Lowe is hooped and the other NHL GMs know it.

You cannot compare any deal Lowe would/could make for Smith to Comrie. These are two completely different types of players and situations. Im not going to get into why or how Comrie drove down his own trade value but Smith could wield a pretty good return for the Oilers IF he were on the trading blocks. I would say at worst a 1st round draft pick.

Oilhitch 01-12-2004 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disles1
What is his salary? Is he a UFA? If the oil drop out of the race what could they get back for him? What would they want from the isles? Thanks!!


Smith makes 2.3M in 2003/04

Slats432 01-12-2004 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by disles1
Slats---what would you want from the isles---excluding their top 4 d guys. How about a young forward and a #2 pick?

Well, if I were to say, as much as you guys tried to unload him, Parrish is of interest. The Oil could use someone to put the biscuit in the basket but since he is injured...

Boy...would Trent Hunter look nice about now. ;)

I thought the Oilers also had interest in Robert Nilsson at the draft....

If Kvasha could learn to apply himself...(Although he is on pace for 50 points...is he for real this year?)

So those are the players that the Oilers would key on....(I have heard rumours that the Oil have a thing for Scatchard.)

Boomhower 01-12-2004 01:16 PM

As a Detroit fan (if I were GM), I would toss out Dandenault and a 2005 2nd round pick for Jason Smith as a starting point. Smith is a beast!

disles1 01-12-2004 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slats432
Well, if I were to say, as much as you guys tried to unload him, Parrish is of interest. The Oil could use someone to put the biscuit in the basket but since he is injured...

Boy...would Trent Hunter look nice about now. ;)

I thought the Oilers also had interest in Robert Nilsson at the draft....

If Kvasha could learn to apply himself...(Although he is on pace for 50 points...is he for real this year?)

So those are the players that the Oilers would key on....(I have heard rumours that the Oil have a thing for Scatchard.)

Kvasha and a #2 and you got a deal. Kvasha is big and fast and is starting to play MUCH better this year. Many isles fans now do not want to deal him as opposed to prior years.

Daryl Shilling 01-12-2004 01:33 PM

Apart from the comments about Smith's age, leadership ability (which is completely based on opinion, but I can live with that), one thing that's a fair consideration are his defensive contributions:

For those that haven't read my work on Defensive Contribution Index, here are some links:
http://members.shaw.ca/hbtn/player_s...nsive_cont.htm
http://members.shaw.ca/hbtn/player_s...e_cont_upd.htm

Smith is a VERY busy hitter. 146% more than league average defenders actually, and the 7th best since RTSS stats began to be tracked.

He is an *outstanding* shot blocker. Smith has the second highest shot blocking rate in the NHL since the league began recording the statistic. 144% more than league average defensemen.

His weakest area is his amount of giveaways as compared to how often he takes the puck away from opposing players. His TK/GV rating is 21% below league average, for

Smith has the 8th best Defensive Contribution since the league began tracking RTSS statistics. His DCI score is 89% better than the league average defender from 1999 to the midway point of 2004.

Just for some context, Boughner is good, but not in the same territory:
HIT: 121% over league average
BLK: 30% better than league average
TK/GV: 31% below league average
DCI: 89% better than league average (1.89)
His DCI puts him 54th in the league over this period

Also, the 5 defensemen most statistically similar to Jason Smith, defensively:
1. Mattias Norstrom - 90.2%
2. Richard Matvichuk - 89.8%
3. Jay McKee - 85.0%
4. Robert Svehla - 83.3%
5. Derian Hatcher - 83.3%

Not one of those guys has what could be called a bad defensive reputation. Well, I suppose there's always SOMEbody that's not in love with their play. Anyhow, some food for thought...

Daryl

FacelessButcher 01-12-2004 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chit94
You cannot compare any deal Lowe would/could make for Smith to Comrie. These are two completely different types of players and situations. Im not going to get into why or how Comrie drove down his own trade value but Smith could wield a pretty good return for the Oilers IF he were on the trading blocks. I would say at worst a 1st round draft pick.

I think Smith will fetch less than Comrie and I can accept taking prospects or picks and nor do I expect an impact player of any significant quality but if you think Smith can be had for a 4th round pick ur absolutely nuts!! (He will be an RFA not a UFA as many seem to think).

I would expect a draft pick in the 28-34th overall range for Smith or a 2nd + 4th pick. To the Isles guy I don't know why you would need another d-man but I would ask for Mapletoft(yet another integral player from Red Deer's memorial cup win) for Smith.

Mizral 01-12-2004 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boondock Saint
Unfortuanately, teams like Toronto and New Jersey aren't likely to possess picks in the #31-#40 range. They'll be #23-#30 range, then not again until the late fifties.

Do you think it's possible that J. Smith could bring back a first? I think the fact that he's a RFA, not UFA next year could coax a late first from someone desperate at the deadline.


I don't think Toronto even has a 2nd round pick at all.

As for a first, a highly, highly doubt it. There are better defensemen out there on the rental list (Rathje, for instance) which probobly couldn't garner a 1st either. I can't remember the last defenseman who wasn't a superstar getting a 1st round pick in return for his services.

Also, remember, even though Smith is an RFA at season's end, there are some complications. The first is the possible CBA lowering of his age, which yes, presents a problem. Don't expect guys in Smith's situation to be signing their contracts until the CBA is signed.

Also, if there is a lockout, it will make Smith a UFA after the lockout ends anyways. It's in his best interests not to sign a contract until he knows what the CBA holds in store for him.

If you listen to those 'in the know' regarding the CBA negotiations, I think it's unlikely Smith is an RFA - but I guess it's possible. That kind of uncertainty does lower his value.

However, as I said, I still think a high 2nd is a possibility. A 1st round pick, even a late one, seems a fair lot too high for Smith. Then again, stranger things have happened.

Mizral 01-12-2004 02:02 PM

I wonder if the Devils could move Kadeykin for Smith? Might be something to look at for the Oilers.

I have a strong feeling that the Devils will be first on the list of teams wanting to get Smith. They've had him before, and Smith seems like he'd fit that team like a glove. PERFECT replacement for Ken Daneyko.

Bohologo 01-12-2004 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daryl Shilling
Anyhow, some food for thought...

Daryl, that was an outstanding bit of analysis-thanks for making an point using data, rather than just opinions. Keep it up!

looooob 01-12-2004 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizral
I don't think Toronto even has a 2nd round pick at all.

As for a first, a highly, highly doubt it. There are better defensemen out there on the rental list (Rathje, for instance) which probobly couldn't garner a 1st either. I can't remember the last defenseman who wasn't a superstar getting a 1st round pick in return for his services.

is Mathieu Schneider a superstar? (and yes I know he's having a good year)


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:00 AM.

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com, A property of CraveOnline, a division of AtomicOnline LLC ©2009 CraveOnline Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved.