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rawrmachine 01-25-2008 12:26 AM

So who are we going to draft...
 
with our top 5 pick?

:naughty::naughty::naughty:

I can't believe we've taken such a freaking downward spiral. I really feel that with the talent on this team, there is no way they should be so freaking awful and inconsistent on a nightly basis. If it wasn't for Manny playing like Jesus for the first half of the season, we'd likely be battling Toronto for Steven Stamkos.

Checker* 01-25-2008 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rawrmachine (Post 12198981)
with our top 5 pick?

:naughty::naughty::naughty:

I can't believe we've taken such a freaking downward spiral. I really feel that with the talent on this team, there is no way they should be so freaking awful and inconsistent on a nightly basis. If it wasn't for Manny playing like Jesus for the first half of the season, we'd likely be battling Toronto for Steven Stamkos.

Too early to think like this. However if this team does in fact go down the crapper and the Blues fall to a top 10 pick, I endorse this plan.

Our 1st, the 1st for Jackman, Stempniak + some more things
for
Stamkos

rawrmachine 01-25-2008 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checker (Post 12199057)
Too early to think like this. However if this team does in fact go down the crapper and the Blues fall to a top 10 pick, I endorse this plan.

Our 1st, the 1st for Jackman, Stempniak + some more things
for
Stamkos

With Toronto likely getting the first overall pick, i doubt they would trade it for that. Hopefully if worst comes to worst, we'll get lucky like Chicago last year and win the lottery.

Checker* 01-25-2008 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rawrmachine (Post 12199140)
With Toronto likely getting the first overall pick, i doubt they would trade it for that. Hopefully if worst comes to worst, we'll get lucky like Chicago last year and win the lottery.


If Toronto gets the 1st overall, they would riot if they traded their Stamkos for darn near anything. If anyone else gets the pick, we could use another top tier prospect. Stamkos and Berglund as our top centers for the next decade makes me happy

rumrokh 01-25-2008 02:45 AM

If the Blues continue to play the way they have over the last twenty games (6-9-5 : only slightly better than their last ten 3-5-2), they'll finish with right around 80 points, pretty much the same as last season.

As it is right now, without too much deviation in the way the teams have played over the past, say, twenty games, here are the teams with a good chance to finish with fewer points than the Blues:

Buffalo
Atlanta
Toronto
Los Angeles
Edmonton
Tampa Bay
Florida
possibles:
Chicago
Carolina

Washington is also possible, but the way they're racking up points over the past twenty games, I seriously doubt it (but it would be really twisted for the Blues to have a better record than the team that wins the Southeast). Sadly, only three of those teams are in the Western Conference - it's pretty much the same standings as right now.

Last season, the fewest points needed to make the playoffs were 92 (in the East, 96 in the West), and it's going to be very close to that this year. If the Blues right the ship and continue on with something resembling their overall record this season, they'll get about 87-88 points. In order to hit 92 points, in their remaining 34 games, they'd have to have a record of 19-11-3. And that is just to hit the theoretical floor, which multiple other teams may hit or raise. So the playoffs are not entirely out of the question, but you really must assume they are from a management standpoint, considering they'll need at least 20 wins out of the remaining 34 games.

At this point, I think it's a lot more likely that the Blues will end up with a top-ten pick than it is they'll make the playoffs. However, I have serious doubts that they'll get a top-five pick. 8-10 is most likely. The draft is so-so on forwards and deep in defense - unless there's somebody in the 3-7 range who is just THAT much better than 8-10, I don't see the Blues going out of their way to shuffle picks.

They can get an outstanding player in that range.

As a side-note, I don't think the Blues will move Stempniak for any purpose, regardless of some struggles this season. With more and more vets leaving the team over the next couple of seasons, I think they'll likely look to Stempniak to step into a more prominent leadership position.

Checker* 01-25-2008 03:10 AM

If your scenario holds, two words...

Kyle Beach.

Beach Eller Oshie would be a talented line that would piss off fans of every other team in the league. Beach is borderline nuts. Oshie hits everything and gets under your skin. Eller apparently has a rather spirited side from his WJCs

rumrokh 01-25-2008 03:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checker (Post 12199640)
If your scenario holds, two words...

Kyle Beach.

Beach Eller Oshie would be a talented line that would piss off fans of every other team in the league. Beach is borderline nuts. Oshie hits everything and gets under your skin. Eller apparently has a rather spirited side from his WJCs

Yea, Eller was advertised as Denmark's answer to Peter Forsberg. Every time anybody talks about him around here, somebody pops up with a comment about physically maturing, but I think he's something like 6'1" 190.

There are always players who rise and fall nearer to draft time, but it seems like Beach will go before the 8-10 range. He's kind of a questionable pick. Some dispute the extent of his skills, but he's obviously talented. The question is how that talent will develop. But most of all, the Blues have clearly said they'll only draft coachable players. They're doing their research and scouting now and will have plenty of time to interview guys when that time comes. But there's a decent possibility that Beach will not even appear on their list of desirable draftees. We'll see if and when that time comes.

Either way, I completely trust Jarmo and his staff to get the job done, whether it's a safe pick, a risky pick, something off the map, doesn't matter. Defenseman, sniper, playmaker, goaltender. Just get somebody good.

Checker* 01-25-2008 04:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumrokh (Post 12199735)
Yea, Eller was advertised as Denmark's answer to Peter Forsberg. Every time anybody talks about him around here, somebody pops up with a comment about physically maturing, but I think he's something like 6'1" 190.

There are always players who rise and fall nearer to draft time, but it seems like Beach will go before the 8-10 range. He's kind of a questionable pick. Some dispute the extent of his skills, but he's obviously talented. The question is how that talent will develop. But most of all, the Blues have clearly said they'll only draft coachable players. They're doing their research and scouting now and will have plenty of time to interview guys when that time comes. But there's a decent possibility that Beach will not even appear on their list of desirable draftees. We'll see if and when that time comes.

Either way, I completely trust Jarmo and his staff to get the job done, whether it's a safe pick, a risky pick, something off the map, doesn't matter. Defenseman, sniper, playmaker, goaltender. Just get somebody good.


I'm hoping Beach is the kind of player with red flags that scare off certain other teams in need of a safe pick that can't afford to roll the dice. There are some question marks with Beach, but I'm not concerned with what I read about his attitude or rumors. There were questions about David Perron's attitude by reports and rumors as well. The Blues scouts did their own investigation and selected him. If Beach's problems are deemed overblown, minor, temporary, or correctable I'd love to have him here. If not Colin Wilson would be high on my list.


BTW: If we get a late first for Jackman, I'm keeping my eye on David Toews. I have a feeling he'll be climbing the charts in the 2nd half.

txbluesfan44 01-26-2008 12:00 AM

My hope in the late first or early second (using a possible pick for Jackman this year or the 2nd for KT last year):

Chet Pickard -- Tri-City (WHL)

Position: G Height: 6.02 Weight: 206

Is a big, strong, athletic goalie who competes hard. Has had the opportunity over the past few years to back up possibly the best junior in the world Carey Price. This year as the No. 1 Pickard has shaken off a slow start to bring the supposedly rebuilding Tri-City Americans to a top ten national ranking and be a legitimate title contender. He is good technically but it needs maturing. Excellent fitness level. Will turn heads if invited to the combine. Can play the puck well. Has great composure. Is in definite vein of Price. Is a big part of Americans success and is playing virtually every night and showing no fatigue.

Manny is not getting any younger nor his knee any healthier, and unless Bishop is the answer, I don't see a #1 goaltender currently in the system that can take the rest of this soon-to-be elite talent base to the promised land.

BluesDarb 01-26-2008 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by txbluesfan44 (Post 12211229)
My hope in the late first or early second (using a possible pick for Jackman this year or the 2nd for KT last year):

Chet Pickard -- Tri-City (WHL)

Position: G Height: 6.02 Weight: 206

Is a big, strong, athletic goalie who competes hard. Has had the opportunity over the past few years to back up possibly the best junior in the world Carey Price. This year as the No. 1 Pickard has shaken off a slow start to bring the supposedly rebuilding Tri-City Americans to a top ten national ranking and be a legitimate title contender. He is good technically but it needs maturing. Excellent fitness level. Will turn heads if invited to the combine. Can play the puck well. Has great composure. Is in definite vein of Price. Is a big part of Americans success and is playing virtually every night and showing no fatigue.

Manny is not getting any younger nor his knee any healthier, and unless Bishop is the answer, I don't see a #1 goaltender currently in the system that can take the rest of this soon-to-be elite talent base to the promised land.

Sounds good to me. I really do want the Blues to take a goalie this draft, just not in the 1st round....so this guy could be that 'sleeper' we need.

I'd be very happy to get someone who is compared to Carey Price. :yo:

Mike6749 01-26-2008 07:17 PM

Here is an interesting site for updated mock drafts. As is, it has us picking 10th taking Zac Boychuk, a 5'9" 176 lb. center (which I don't necessarily agree with, we need to get bigger at center). 1-7 are pretty much locks. Stamkos through Schenn are all solid picks. I don't see any of those teams trading down. If the Blues can pick up another pick in the 11-20 range, we could be able to pick up a guy like Boedker at 10 and a "blue chip" D-man with 11-20 such as Teubert. With our 2nd rounders take another forward and maybe a goalie. In a D-rich draft we should be able to find some more D in the later rounds.

http://www.mynhldraft.com/

Irish Blues 01-26-2008 09:37 PM

I and others have serious doubts about the accuracy of that site.

FWIW, I ran the model I have that projects results for the remainder of the season. According to it, we made the playoffs 16% of the time and our average finish was 3rd to last ..... in the league. It's sensitive to results from the last 10 games so if we reel off a 10-game winning streak we suddenly look much better, but the results that fell out didn't appear to be too out of whack.

We're quickly turning into sellers at this point - if we do become sellers, a top-5 pick this year may not be out of the question unless some players not named Brad Boyes start scoring at a 25-30 goal pace.

Mike6749 01-26-2008 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Blues (Post 12221532)
I and others have serious doubts about the accuracy of that site.

FWIW, I ran the model I have that projects results for the remainder of the season. According to it, we made the playoffs 16% of the time and our average finish was 3rd to last ..... in the league. It's sensitive to results from the last 10 games so if we reel off a 10-game winning streak we suddenly look much better, but the results that fell out didn't appear to be too out of whack.

We're quickly turning into sellers at this point - if we do become sellers, a top-5 pick this year may not be out of the question unless some players not named Brad Boyes start scoring at a 25-30 goal pace.


If that holds true, Kyle Beach or Luke Schenn could very well be ours. As much as I think it is great for this organization to make the playoffs this year, another great draft from a deeeeep class may be even more beneficial. As it stands we have 3 of the first 50 picks. I'd love to see us pick up another first or second rounder and overhaul the D and go after that franchise forward we've been lacking since Hull or Shanny.

Checker* 01-26-2008 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Blues (Post 12221532)
I and others have serious doubts about the accuracy of that site.

FWIW, I ran the model I have that projects results for the remainder of the season. According to it, we made the playoffs 16% of the time and our average finish was 3rd to last ..... in the league. It's sensitive to results from the last 10 games so if we reel off a 10-game winning streak we suddenly look much better, but the results that fell out didn't appear to be too out of whack.

We're quickly turning into sellers at this point - if we do become sellers, a top-5 pick this year may not be out of the question unless some players not named Brad Boyes start scoring at a 25-30 goal pace.

If the Blues finish with a top 5 pick, we need to find a way to get Stamkos. The Blues have been aggressive reportedly trying to move up in the past (for Staal and Voracek) and successfully moved up for Cole. If we get a 1st for Jackman and continue to have 2 second round picks, 2 3rd round picks, and one of the deepest prospect pools in the league, we could probably do it. The reason I want to is based on the lesson we're learning with our defensemen. We have a bunch of second pairing guys this season, but without a top guy we're struggling. Looking down the line at our offensive prospects, I don't know that we have anyone that could finish top 10-15 in the league in scoring in our system. A true superstar. Bottomline is we could use a bonafide offensive superstar especially at center. As is stands, I think the Blues have a lot of future point producers, but no one quite on that level points wise. Stamkos has the potential to be a 100 point player. Having him and Berglund at center and Oshie, Perron, Eller, and Boyes as our wingers would be sick. I say we make it happen.

kimzey59 01-27-2008 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checker (Post 12221762)
If the Blues finish with a top 5 pick, we need to find a way to get Stamkos.

I disagree with this; especially if Toronto ends up with the 1st overall pick.
IMO it will cost too much for us to move up into the #1 slot to be a realistic option.

If the Blues do end up with a top 5 pick; Alex Pietrangelo is the guy I'd be targetting. IMO Pietrangelo will be the best D man in this years draft and he and EJ would give us a Pronger/Mac type combo. Cup winning teams are typically built from the net out and Alex and EJ would give us the foundation for a truely dominant defensive corps(and, unlike a lot of other "dominant defensive units" they'd be together for a very long time).

Quote:

The Blues have been aggressive reportedly trying to move up in the past (for Staal and Voracek) and successfully moved up for Cole. If we get a 1st for Jackman and continue to have 2 second round picks, 2 3rd round picks, and one of the deepest prospect pools in the league, we could probably do it.
JD has been aggressive in trying to move up; but he also hasn't grossly overpaid to do so. If Toronto ends up at #1, they will veiw Stamkos as "Sundin's replacement". It will take a gross overpayment for them to give him up and IMO it would be a terrible move to give them the overpayment they'll be looking for.

Quote:

The reason I want to is based on the lesson we're learning with our defensemen. We have a bunch of second pairing guys this season, but without a top guy we're struggling. Looking down the line at our offensive prospects, I don't know that we have anyone that could finish top 10-15 in the league in scoring in our system. A true superstar. Bottomline is we could use a bonafide offensive superstar especially at center. As is stands, I think the Blues have a lot of future point producers, but no one quite on that level points wise. Stamkos has the potential to be a 100 point player. Having him and Berglund at center and Oshie, Perron, Eller, and Boyes as our wingers would be sick. I say we make it happen.

1) There is a slight bit of difference between our defensive situation and our offensive situation.

What the Blues lack on defense is that Take-Charge player who can legitamately affect the flow of the game. Brewer and Jackman should be doing that but aren't, and EJ isn't ready for that yet.

The difference is that we already have that guy up front in TJ Oshie. Oshie may not be a 100 point player, but he will be a "spark plug" type player that will jumpstart our offense. When you put a guy like Oshie into the mix with Berglund, Eller, Perron, Stempniak, Boyes, etc... the need for a "franchise forward" decreases radically.


2) I also disagree that we don't have a 'potential 100 point player" among our forwards. IMO Perron and Berglund have the skill to put up those types of numbers. Whether they hit that number is a seperate issue entirely as there are a lot of things that have to go right for a player to get to the century mark(coaching system, chemistry with linemates, health, etc...); but I definately think they have the skill to get to that mark.


3) Last thing I'm going to disagree on is the need for a " top 10-15" scorer period. Those kinds of players may be fun to watch but it is incredibly debateable on whether they actually "help" a team win a Cup, which is the actual goal of this organization. IMO the key to winning the Cup is to have incredible depth up front coupled with a very strong back-end(both in terms of goal tending and defensive play). Guys like Crosby and Stamkos are fun to watch, but they can be shut down come PO time just like any other player.

I know you're going to claim that we already have depth and that Stamkos wouldn't change that; but I still don't agree with your position. Getting Stamkos would be fun to watch, but building a truely dominant defensive unit would get us closer to reaching our ultimate objective of winning the Cup.

Prussian_Blue 01-27-2008 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checker (Post 12199640)
If your scenario holds, two words...

Kyle Beach.

Beach Eller Oshie would be a talented line that would piss off fans of every other team in the league. Beach is borderline nuts. Oshie hits everything and gets under your skin. Eller apparently has a rather spirited side from his WJCs

Bing-freakin'-O.

That's exactly what I'm looking for at this point in time. Beach is tailor-made for this franchise, IMO, and that line would do exactly as Checker says -- score lots and irritate the dog **** out of teams and fans all over the league (especially, I hope, Detroit).

P_B

:bb:

Prussian_Blue 01-27-2008 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Checker (Post 12199760)
I'm hoping Beach is the kind of player with red flags that scare off certain other teams in need of a safe pick that can't afford to roll the dice. There are some question marks with Beach, but I'm not concerned with what I read about his attitude or rumors. There were questions about David Perron's attitude by reports and rumors as well. The Blues scouts did their own investigation and selected him. If Beach's problems are deemed overblown, minor, temporary, or correctable I'd love to have him here. If not Colin Wilson would be high on my list.

Ditto.

I also like Czech prospect Tomas Kubalik at center.

P_B

:bb:

Celtic Note 01-27-2008 12:18 PM

Why all the love for Beach? I am not opposed to having him.

Also, I haven't been looking at the draft too much, but I am overdue to start. So I will get on that ;)

Mike6749 01-27-2008 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zundo (Post 12225001)
Why all the love for Beach? I am not opposed to having him.

Also, I haven't been looking at the draft too much, but I am overdue to start. So I will get on that ;)

Through 44 games in the WHL for the Everett Silvertips, Beach has 24 g 28 a 52p with 152 PIM. :amazed: To get that kind of production and that many PIM means one of two things, the kid likes to fight or he can play D as well. He would be a perfect fit for our system, offensively capable as well as defensively responsible.

Mike6749 01-27-2008 01:17 PM

Speaking of the WHL, anyone know if someone holds the rights to Tyson Sexsmith? This guy is a beast. 31 wins last year, 30 this year to go along with a 1.97 GAA and 6 SO.

Edit: Property of the Sharks, boo

Celtic Note 01-27-2008 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike6749 (Post 12225388)
Through 44 games in the WHL for the Everett Silvertips, Beach has 24 g 28 a 52p with 152 PIM. :amazed: To get that kind of production and that many PIM means one of two things, the kid likes to fight or he can play D as well. He would be a perfect fit for our system, offensively capable as well as defensively responsible.

See I have heard that he acts like Avery, but is way more skilled.

c-carp 01-27-2008 03:50 PM

We definatly need a top flight Power Forward, the one we have isnt doing his job. I aint talking about Backes.

c-carp 01-27-2008 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zundo (Post 12225685)
See I have heard that he acts like Avery, but is way more skilled.


That could be a good thing, When you are a physical and or adgitiating player you are suppost to be a pain in the ass like Avery is.

Celtic Note 01-27-2008 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c-carp (Post 12226657)
That could be a good thing, When you are a physical and or adgitiating player you are suppost to be a pain in the ass like Avery is.

True. I just don't think all of those penalty minutes would be too helpful. Not to mention, if he is a cheap shot I don't want him....any word on this? If he is a tough SOB then bring it on. We are currently a bit soft upfront, so I would say that would be good.

c-carp 01-27-2008 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zundo (Post 12227252)
True. I just don't think all of those penalty minutes would be too helpful. Not to mention, if he is a cheap shot I don't want him....any word on this? If he is a tough SOB then bring it on. We are currently a bit soft upfront, so I would say that would be good.

I dont know a lot about him, others here can answe questions about him better than I can. I do know that his pugilistic ability is questioned at times. He is quite willing to go but has been KO'd at least twice in the WHL in the last 2 years.

As far as the high PIM's go it depends on how much of that is stupid IE ill timed penalties. Others will have to answer that.

AS far as being cheap, A lot of that sometimes depends on who the guy plays for. A lot of people hate Steve Downie because he is cheap at times but he can also play a bit and I think if he was wearing the Bluenote he would be a fan favorite. Myself if he would have threw the hit he threw on McAmmond earlier this year on Maltby while playing for the Blues, I think he would be a bit of a folk hero here.


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