200708 NHL Goal Differentials
This is a little statistic I calculate each season  it's basically a linear transformation of save percentage (so if you don't like save percentage, you won't like this either, and I'm not going to argue with you about it here).
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=253883 and http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=381137 link to the past two years of this statistic; the first link also explains a bit more about what the hell I'm doing. One big change in the calculations this year  when taking the league average save percentage, I now remove the individual goaltender's contribution. The statistics presented: GD (Goal Differential)  how many goals better (or worse) a netminder is than a leagueaverage NHL goaltender facing the same number of shots. GARG (Goals Above Replacement Goaltender)  how many goals better (or worse) a netminder is than a replacementlevel NHL goaltender facing the same number of shots. I define "replacement level" to be a save percentage 0.015 below league average (this is a bit of a SWAG). Replacement level goaltenders are plentiful and easily available. SNW/SNL (SupportNeutral Wins and Losses)  if the goaltender had received "average" goal support, how many wins and losses would he have. I sort this table by GARG, because there's a definite value in playing at a "league average" level for a decent period of time. Enjoy! Some interesting results here. Code:

One interesting thing to note is how much "flatter" the distribution is compared to past seasons  no one really stands out in a positive fashion.
Another interesting thing: Tomas Vokoun. :amazed: 
hehehe...raycroft is last

depends what stat you look at, holmqvist is last for GD

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I remember one particular game against the Penguins where he was the only Panther doing anything all game and allowed 4 goals and showed his frustration and got called a cancer for showing it... Not many players in the league can take abuse like Vokoun faced with a smile on their face. 
Great insight as always Doctor No. I really like the average goal support calculation as it puts everyone on an even playing field.
Some interesting observations: Florida is a playoff team if Vokoun receives average goal support Luongo has 40 wins if he receives average goal support Nabokov is only one game above .500% with average goal support The difference between Kolzig and Huet is astounding Brodeur has the highest goal differential and best win/loss differential with average goal support DiPietro is surprisingly low Lundqvist, Turco, Miller, and Osgood had relatively average seasons 
Thank you!
Yes, I was quite surprised to see where Nabokov ended up in the totals  I haven't watched as many San Jose games as I usually do this season (usually I'm playing goal at the same time), and in the back of my head I had it figured that he must be doing pretty well. I also didn't realize just how far Kolzig had fallen this year. He's always been one of my favourites. Dubielewicz really shone in limited time  his GARG/60 is particularly impressive. Manny Fernandez and Marek Schwarz both had to put in quite an effort to get where they did in limited playing time. :amazed: 
I always thought Vokoun was underrated

Beachball Dan sneaks in, despite playing less than 10 games this season

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Truth is he had a very bad year for his skill level. Doesn't mean that he's not a top 10 or even top 7 goalie though. Also, great work Doctor No. :) 
go timmy thomas.

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Good points on DiPietro  his numbers this year weren't indicative of his true skill level (my opinion, of course). Give him a full summer to get healthy and he'll bounce back. (DiPietro's historic GARG totals are 55.36 (200607), 24.29 (200506), 19.27 (200405)). 
interesting stuff! :handclap:

Kind of odd that Fleury and Conklin end up with the exact same SNWL.
This is good stuff. The way it's presented, it does tend to favor the workhorse goalies. I guess that's what you were going for. The SNWL puts things in the context of opportunity, but would be hard to sort by. I'd like to see an additional column, perhaps something like SNWL winning percentage, to make it clear how much each goalie did with the opportunities afforded to them. 
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Dr. No, could you explain how exactly you determine a goalies record with "average goal support"?

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Here are the basics  first, I ignore ties. That makes things a hell of a lot simpler and doesn't really seem to bother anyone. I'll introduce Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem  in baseball, if you know how many runs scored and runs allowed a team has in a season, you can effectively predict their record using the formula Winning Percentage = Runs^2 / (Runs^2 + RunsAllowed^2). The formula works pretty well for hockey  it's not perfect, but then again, we're starting from save percentage, and that's already not perfect, so there we are. So the hockey formula becomes Winning Percentage = GF^2 / (GF^2 + GA^2). Goals Against is easy to find  that's just the Goals Against that a goaltender allows. In a supportneutral context, Goals For is basically asking  if this goaltender faced "league average" goaltending in similar situations, how many goals would his team score? The simple answer is that you take the number of shots the goaltender faced and multiply it by (one minus the leagueaverage save percentage). Once you have GF and GA, you can get SupportNeutral Winning Percentage using the formula above. Then you can take the SNW% and apply it to how many decisions the goaltender had over the season. Here's an example, using Martin Brodeur's 200708 campaign. Brodeur had a record of 44276, allowing 168 goals on 2089 shots. Leaguewide save percentage was 0.90881 (I remove Brodeur's shots and saves in making this calculation because Brodeur doesn't play against himself, and he shouldn't get penalized for playing well). Goals Against = 168. Goals For = (10.90881) * 2089 = 190.5 (Note that I would ordinarily carry as many decimal places as I could, and then round at the end) SNW% = (190.5^2) / (168^2 + 190.5^2) = 0.5625. Brodeur had 77 decisions, so his supportneutral wins would be (0.5625 * 77) = 43.3 (rounded to 43). And his supportneutral losses would be 7743=34. So Brodeur's 200708 supportneutral wonloss record would be 4334. 
So it's pretty clear just glancing at the charts that Andrew Raycroft has been the worst goalie in the league for the past three years.
Good work Doctor No. I love seeing hardcore statistical analysis applied to hockey!! 
Always my pleasure! It suits my dual nature as a math nerd and a hockey nerd. :laugh:

this is pretty great, I hadn't looked at it in the past  but surely will in the future  if you plan to continue to do this.

I think this thread deserves a bump. How about crunching the numbers on some other years?

So hypothetically, Tim Thomas allowed 47.8 less goals than some average Goalie they signed to replace him would have?
This is really interesting stuff, great work. 
So is Dan Ellis overhyped?..
My brain hurts from this list, half of it runs completely contrary to my expectations... 
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I've posted 200506 and 200607 on here in the past. And now for the good news  I'm refitting my website so that I can put up all of these things on the individual biography pages. It's going to make it a lot easier for people to find them (and comment/critique them, which in turn leads to a better work product). It should be done by the end of this month. 
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