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-   -   Rather than assuming Pitt's salary numbers... (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=522519)

Illinest 06-06-2008 10:52 PM

Rather than assuming Pitt's salary numbers...
 
For next season already under contract.

Crosby 8.7
Malkin 3.8
Sykora 2.5
Staal 2.2
Gonchar 5.0
Whitney 4.0
Gill 2.1
Sydor 2.5
Scuderi 0.7
Talbot 0.7
Letang 0.8
Kennedy 0.5
Sabourin 0.5

6 Forwards, 6 Defenseman, 1 Goaltender.
34 million.

Here is a range of potential values regarding the free agents according to my own speculation.

Hossa 7.0 - 9.0
Malone 3.0 - 4.0
Ruutu 1.0 - 2.0
Laraque 1.0 - 2.0
Dupuis 1.5 - 2.5
Hall 1.0 -2.0
Orpik 3.5 - 4.5
Fleury 4.0 - 5.5

A range of 56-65.5 million.
The cap is expected to sit at about 56 million.

Now you have proof that the Pens are extremely unlikely to keep all of their free agents but you also probably know more than the talking heads who proclaim 'The Pens are fuxxored!@1'

brs03 06-06-2008 11:11 PM

I think you're underestimating Fleury's cost. If he made it to the offer-sheet stage, I could see a team offering him 6+. He's still unproven a bit, but I think it's possible. If his contract turns out well the Pens will be in a good spot, but he could throw a wrench into the whole operation if he (or the market) believes he's worth enough.

Illinest 06-06-2008 11:21 PM

Well that's fine. He and Orpik are the ones that I'm least sure of.

Cam Ward - 2.67
Lundquist - 4.3

I don't know how successful Fleury could be in making a case that he's worth THAT much more than those two guys. Just for example.

surshot* 06-06-2008 11:26 PM

How much are the pens willing to spend next year?. I think that Hossa is going to be wearing a different jersey Next year.

Illinest 06-06-2008 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by surshot (Post 14335896)
How much are the pens willing to spend next year?. I think that Hossa is going to be wearing a different jersey Next year.

on record as willing to spend right up to the max.

Fraction Jackson 06-06-2008 11:27 PM

There's no way that Hall will make 1m or more, and I'd find it hard to believe Dupuis at more than 1m either. Same for Laraque and Ruutu. Guys like that can be replaced by players making close to the minimum, so if those guys want that much they just won't be retained. That shaves the low end of the estimate down just a little. There's also a school of thought that says Sydor will be moved somehow, which might help as well. So in theory it's possible that everyone stays. Just not easy or likely.

Also, for the guy who says the Fleury estimate is low - even most high-end goalies don't make more that about 4.5, and as good as Fleury is he'd be hard pressed to argue he's as good as Luongo, Brodeur or Lundqvist. I expect Shero will get an idea of what Fleury and his agent expect, and take them to arbitration as soon as he becomes an RFA if they don't have a deal locked up before then. Comparables for Fleury would likely be players like DiPietro, Emery, Miller, Ward, etc. Knowing that, I think it's likely that a deal gets done beforehand somewhere around 4.0 or 4.5 million.

brs03 06-06-2008 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illinest (Post 14335854)
Well that's fine. He and Orpik are the ones that I'm least sure of.

Cam Ward - 2.67
Lundquist - 4.3

I don't know how successful Fleury could be in making a case that he's worth THAT much more than those two guys. Just for example.

But, Lunqvist is bumped up to 6.8 next year. I'm not saying Fleury's worth what Lundqvist (or Bulin, or Luongo) is getting paid, I just think it's a possibility that'll he'll end up with something in the neighborhood, especially if he gets offers from other teams. All it takes is for one GM to believe he's their franchise, and if Fleury believes it too then he could cause trouble. But if he's happy then he can get something done that's more workable.

Irish Blues 06-07-2008 12:30 AM

The cap won't be $56 million next year - I'll be surprised if it's over $55 million. You might want to plan accordingly.

Bruwinz37 06-07-2008 12:51 AM

I think their concern should be that Malkin's deal is due up the following year and they will need to give him Crosby money (at least) to retain him. If they choose not to, then your plan is aces....but I think they would prefer that route.

Illinest 06-07-2008 07:16 AM

Just a minor correction. I didn't suggest a plan.

I just laid out the facts and speculated as well as i could. Looks plain to see that the Pens will have to let someone go.

As far as the salary cap number at 56 million, that's just the common number that I was hearing right after the trade deadline.
Since then we've been hearing that the TV ratings were better than expected and higher than last season in every round of the playoffs.
To me that suggests a HIGHER number than 56 million but since it was never my estimate in the first place I don't see any point in arguing it.

ForzaItalia 06-07-2008 07:50 AM

If Vesa Toskala is getting $4M for next season, how much is MAF worth?

It Kills Me 06-07-2008 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForzaItalia (Post 14337544)
If Vesa Toskala is getting $4M for next season, how much is MAF worth?

JFJ took a lot of risks as GM of the Leafs. Signing Toskala before he even proved to a starter was one of them, but we lucked out.. We probably saved 1M on him.

Now a days teams are paying for potential and Fleury looks like a star. 5.5 or 6M long term.

I also think Malone is going to get around 4.5M, if that's what Erat could pick up.. Malone's broken face jacked up his price. Hell the Pens run this year made them all quite a bit pricier.

Kaktus* 06-07-2008 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illinest (Post 14335637)
For next season already under contract.

Crosby 8.7
Malkin 3.8
Sykora 2.5
Staal 2.2
Gonchar 5.0
Whitney 4.0
Gill 2.1
Sydor 2.5
Scuderi 0.7
Talbot 0.7
Letang 0.8
Kennedy 0.5
Sabourin 0.5

6 Forwards, 6 Defenseman, 1 Goaltender.
34 million.

Here is a range of potential values regarding the free agents according to my own speculation.

Hossa 7.0 - 9.0
Malone 3.0 - 4.0
Ruutu 1.0 - 2.0
Laraque 1.0 - 2.0
Dupuis 1.5 - 2.5
Hall 1.0 -2.0
Orpik 3.5 - 4.5
Fleury 4.0 - 5.5

A range of 56-65.5 million.
The cap is expected to sit at about 56 million.

Now you have proof that the Pens are extremely unlikely to keep all of their free agents but you also probably know more than the talking heads who proclaim 'The Pens are fuxxored!@1'

Are you saying that all these players will sign on year deals because netx year Malkin will make around 10M and Staal will ask at least for 3-4M and if he scores over 25 goals we will be talking about him just like we are talking about Carter. Also Fluery may make more.
Hossa 7.0 - 9.0
Malone 3.0 - 4.0
Ruutu 1.0 - 2.0
Laraque 1.0 - 2.0
Dupuis 1.5 - 2.5
Hall 1.0 -2.0
Orpik 3.5 - 4.5
Fleury 4.0 - 5.5

btn 06-07-2008 08:58 AM

The big problem for Shero is not next season, it is the season after that when he has to give pretty big pay days to Malkin and Staal.

It is hard to see the Penguins giving Hossa anything more than a 1 year deal, unless they have decided to move one of Staal or Malkin. Letang and Talbot will also be needing pay raises down the road as well.

Hammerwise 06-07-2008 09:00 AM

i think they have to pass on hossa, they are a much weaker club without orpik and malone, who will make about the same amount.

Mr Jiggyfly 06-07-2008 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Blues (Post 14336309)
The cap won't be $56 million next year - I'll be surprised if it's over $55 million. You might want to plan accordingly.

IB, do you know when they are going to come out with next year's cap number?

Shouldn't it be soon so teams can start making decisions?

danishh 06-07-2008 11:11 AM

i suspect the pens will let hossa walk and resign everyone else. Wont be that big a loss either.

KenAF 06-07-2008 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Mr Jiggyfly> (Post 14337891)
IB, do you know when they are going to come out with next year's cap number?

Before July 1.

Last year, TSN reported it on June 29.

Irish Blues 06-07-2008 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Mr Jiggyfly> (Post 14337891)
IB, do you know when they are going to come out with next year's cap number?

Shouldn't it be soon so teams can start making decisions?

Probably 3 weeks. It generally comes out in the last few days before July 1.

Illinest 06-07-2008 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaktus (Post 14337703)
Are you saying that all these players will sign on year deals because netx year Malkin will make around 10M and Staal will ask at least for 3-4M and if he scores over 25 goals we will be talking about him just like we are talking about Carter. Also Fluery may make more.
Hossa 7.0 - 9.0
Malone 3.0 - 4.0
Ruutu 1.0 - 2.0
Laraque 1.0 - 2.0
Dupuis 1.5 - 2.5
Hall 1.0 -2.0
Orpik 3.5 - 4.5
Fleury 4.0 - 5.5

I still haven't planned anything but since my opinions keep getting assumed I'll just throw em out there.

We have a replacement ready for Ruutu and George Laraque didn't even play for us throughout most of the playoffs so they're both replaced at the minimum salary.
If we resign Hossa then Sydor and Sykora will have to come off the books after next season and their combined salaries nearly equals the difference on Malkin's raise.

If Orpik/Malone/Hossa/Fleury aren't just blowing smoke then there's a chance all four could be kept but it would probably mean Staal leaving as a RFA.
If even one of them is looking to cash out then it might make sense to let Hossa go because it will allow us to keep Staal later and either resign Sykora or find an equivalent replacement.

So in short I think that the Penguins will lose either:
1. Hossa
or
2. Malone and Orpik
or
3. Staal, Sydor, and Sykora after next season.

There's no chance in hell we could replace Hossa with talent from our farm system.
There's only a slim chance we could replace Malone and Orpik

So that's why I favor the one where we lose Staal, Sydor and Sykora. (which is only possible if all four of the big FAs are willing to sign team-friendly contracts)
Our top prospect will be fine to replace Sydor, we've got a few scoring prospects who might make a fine replacement for Sykora, and the team that takes Staal will be paying us in draft picks, plus you're only losing your third line center there instead of one of your top scorers.

66-29-33 06-07-2008 01:11 PM

We will worry about our own worries, you worry about your guys own team problems. Pens can easily keep everyone, atleast for 1 more year before we have to make some big decisions.

Sean Garrity 06-07-2008 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 66-29-33 (Post 14338993)
We will worry about our own worries, you worry about your guys own team problems. Pens can easily keep everyone, atleast for 1 more year before we have to make some big decisions.


Was this necessary? Honestly.

SuburbanRhythm 06-07-2008 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btn (Post 14337729)
The big problem for Shero is not next season, it is the season after that when he has to give pretty big pay days to Malkin and Staal.

It is hard to see the Penguins giving Hossa anything more than a 1 year deal, unless they have decided to move one of Staal or Malkin. Letang and Talbot will also be needing pay raises down the road as well.

While Talbot will get his 10% raise to be qualified, he'll hardly see a huge raise. He's a fan and lockerroom favorite, but will hardly break the bank.

Letang could demand more, but if he's playing well enough to demand $3-4M, they move Whitney and Letang takes his minutes, with Goligoski taking Letang spot.

The Pens have players who can, arguably, play on the 2nd and 3rd pairings in the future (Goligoski, Strait, Sneep) should they progress as expected.

Same, they have players who can fill spots on the 3rd line, potentially 2nd line if they truly break out- Caputi, Filewich, Veilleux, Pierro-Zabotel, Jeffrey. And those who can fill 3rd/4th line roles, probably next season - Tim Brent, Ryan Stone.

What they don't have is a top line winger anywhere in the organization. To have one, at 29 years old, you make room for him.

And don't forget, in 2009-10, Colby Armstrong will take the league minimum to come back to Pittsburgh. :yo:

66-29-33 06-07-2008 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karacter (Post 14339166)
Was this necessary? Honestly.

Yes it was, everyone seems convinced they know how the Pens will do things and they are not the GM's or anything to do with the Pens organization. The people here are bloody stupid if they think Fleury will get 7M, Staal 5M, Hossa max, Malone 6M, Orpik 8M, etc. Not that they said it here but i have seen it all from ALOT of hf posters.

93xxGilmourxx93 06-07-2008 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 66-29-33 (Post 14339303)
Yes it was, everyone seems convinced they know how the Pens will do things and they are not the GM's or anything to do with the Pens organization. The people here are bloody stupid if they think Fleury will get 7M, Staal 5M, Hossa max, Malone 6M, Orpik 8M, etc. Not that they said it here but i have seen it all from ALOT of hf posters.

Don't take it so personally! :) I'm still new here, but I've gone through a lot of the posts and haven't seen anyone suggest the numbers you just listed for those players. (And if anyone said Orpik would get 8 million, I'd just assume they were 11 and let it slide :laugh:)

No, the people on here don't work for the Pens, but neither do you, nor do I - so everyone's opinion is just as valid as yours.

Lastly, you can't stop some people from being stupid, especially on the internet!


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