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-   -   Increasing chances for 1st pick overall. (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=56670)

Habsolution 02-28-2004 02:27 PM

Increasing chances for 1st pick overall.
 
There are rumours that transfer fees for russian prospects could increase dramatically when the new contract between the IIHF and NHL is signed. Assuming that this gets out of hand and that you have to pay exorbitant prices in the range of 5M-10M for guys like Ovechkin and Malkin it would probably price them out of the range of poor teams like Pittsburgh.

If that were to happen would it be worth it for them to trade their 1st pick in 04 for either one of Chicago or the Caps 1st pick in 05 ? It would give them two top five 1st round pick and significantly improves their chance of getting the first pick overall in 2005.

Here are the odds for the lottery :

TEAM ODDS
1- 30.0%
2- 21.0%
3- 15.1%
4- 10.9%
5- 8.0%
6- 5.9%
7- 4.2%
8- 2.8%
9- 1.6%
10- .5%

As it stands if you finish last overall you have 45% chances to get the first round pick overall. (100- (21+15.1+10.9+8))

If you swap your 1st round pick for the other team 1st round pick and that the other team finish at the 29th rank your chance to get the 1st round pick overall increases significantly by 21% chances which means you now have 66% chances to get the first pick overall in the draft year you chose. And you still have a fairly high 1st round pick in that draft.

Same exercise but the team you swapped picks with finish 3rd last. You still have 60.1 % chances to get the first overall. If the other finishes 4th you now have 55.9 % chances. 5th gives you 53%. 6th gives you nothing but another top 7 pick and so on.

This is a pretty risky move since you can't be sure that the caps or hawks are gonna end up 2nd or 3rd last overall or even in the last 5. But looking at the hawks and caps situations it's doubtful that any of those teams can do much better than that next season.

If you were the pengouins knowing that the transfer fees could change dramatically would you trade your 1st pick overall this season for the hawks or caps 1st round pick next season ? Or is that too risky ?

skariya18 02-28-2004 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habsolution
There are rumours that transfer fees for russian prospects could increase dramatically when the new contract between the IIHF and NHL is signed. Assuming that this gets out of hand and that you have to pay exorbitant prices in the range of 5M-10M for guys like Ovechkin and Malkin it would probably price them out of the range of poor teams like Pittsburgh.

If that were to happen would it be worth it for them to trade their 1st pick in 04 for either one of Chicago or the Caps 1st pick in 05 ? It would give them two top five 1st round pick and significantly improves their chance of getting the first pick overall in 2005.

Here are the odds for the lottery :

TEAM ODDS
1- 30.0%
2- 21.0%
3- 15.1%
4- 10.9%
5- 8.0%
6- 5.9%
7- 4.2%
8- 2.8%
9- 1.6%
10- .5%

As it stands if you finish last overall you have 45% chances to get the first round pick overall. (100- (21+15.1+10.9+8))

If you swap your 1st round pick for the other team 1st round pick and that the other team finish at the 29th rank your chance to get the 1st round pick overall increases significantly by 21% chances which means you now have 66% chances to get the first pick overall in the draft year you chose. And you still have a fairly high 1st round pick in that draft.

Same exercise but the team you swapped picks with finish 3rd last. You still have 60.1 % chances to get the first overall. If the other finishes 4th you now have 55.9 % chances. 5th gives you 53%. 6th gives you nothing but another top 7 pick and so on.

This is a pretty risky move since you can't be sure that the caps or hawks are gonna end up 2nd or 3rd last overall or even in the last 5. But looking at the hawks and caps situations it's doubtful that any of those teams can do much better than that next season.

If you were the pengouins knowing that the transfer fees could change dramatically would you trade your 1st pick overall this season for the hawks or caps 1st round pick next season ? Or is that too risky ?


Those Russian transfer fees would only add to the NHL's financial problems. How bad would it look it a team had to trade away their #1 pick to a team that could afford to pay him (i.e. Flyers, Avalanche, Red Wings, Leafs...), it would only add to the current situation which exists.

I hope they are able to keep the transfer fees to a minimum, but that is almost impossible because the Russians need an incentive to let their players go.

It's like with MLB and them bidding on the rights to negotiate with a player from Japan. Not to actually offer a contract, but just to talk to the player. I think Ichiro's was somewhere around $15 million, and then they signed him to a 3 year deal.

Isn't there also something in the NHL that says a team won't drop more than 3 spots in the order of the draft?

MoS* 02-28-2004 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habsolution
There are rumours that transfer fees for russian prospects could increase dramatically when the new contract between the IIHF and NHL is signed. Assuming that this gets out of hand and that you have to pay exorbitant prices in the range of 5M-10M for guys like Ovechkin and Malkin it would probably price them out of the range of poor teams like Pittsburgh.

If that were to happen would it be worth it for them to trade their 1st pick in 04 for either one of Chicago or the Caps 1st pick in 05 ? It would give them two top five 1st round pick and significantly improves their chance of getting the first pick overall in 2005.

Here are the odds for the lottery :

TEAM ODDS
1- 30.0%
2- 21.0%
3- 15.1%
4- 10.9%
5- 8.0%
6- 5.9%
7- 4.2%
8- 2.8%
9- 1.6%
10- .5%

As it stands if you finish last overall you have 45% chances to get the first round pick overall. (100- (21+15.1+10.9+8))

If you swap your 1st round pick for the other team 1st round pick and that the other team finish at the 29th rank your chance to get the 1st round pick overall increases significantly by 21% chances which means you now have 66% chances to get the first pick overall in the draft year you chose. And you still have a fairly high 1st round pick in that draft.

Same exercise but the team you swapped picks with finish 3rd last. You still have 60.1 % chances to get the first overall. If the other finishes 4th you now have 55.9 % chances. 5th gives you 53%. 6th gives you nothing but another top 7 pick and so on.

This is a pretty risky move since you can't be sure that the caps or hawks are gonna end up 2nd or 3rd last overall or even in the last 5. But looking at the hawks and caps situations it's doubtful that any of those teams can do much better than that next season.

If you were the pengouins knowing that the transfer fees could change dramatically would you trade your 1st pick overall this season for the hawks or caps 1st round pick next season ? Or is that too risky ?

But what if the caps or the blackhawks were to turn their teams around with ovechkin? then the penguins would be royally screwed. and imo ovechkin > crosby so..... and btw, i think the fans and the city of pittsburgh can't endure another 20 win season. the pittsburgh penguins need a star right now. not tommorrow, not next year. right now

Jacob 02-28-2004 02:35 PM

5-10 million dollars for a transfer fee? That may be a slight exaggeration. I doubt even the Flyers or Rangers would be willing to shell that kind of cash out.

If it becomes a problem, couldn't whatever team drafts Ovechkin/Malkin just wait a year or two until his contract is up? Or smuggle him out of the country, a la Zherdev? It's not like the player is going to see a dime of that fee.

Even if that's a realistic figure, why would a team like the Penguins trade the pick? It'd be more beneficial to just draft a non-Russian, or to draft the Russian if only to hold his rights and then possibly trade him down the line, or just wait for the IIHF to work things out.

This all sounds really far fetched.

Teemu 02-28-2004 02:37 PM

*drool*

So we could draft Ovechkin AND Barker...

AEKaki 02-28-2004 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacobv2
5-10 million dollars for a transfer fee? That may be a slight exaggeration. I doubt even the Flyers or Rangers would be willing to shell that kind of cash out.

If it becomes a problem, couldn't whatever team drafts Ovechkin/Malkin just wait a year or two until his contract is up? Or smuggle him out of the country, a la Zherdev? It's not like the player is going to see a dime of that fee.


You see bigger transfers in soccer.
Russia's product is mostly hockey.
I understand that they want this, because their stars always leave.
But the NHL has 2 things to worry about right now.

Fighter 02-28-2004 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacobv2
5-10 million dollars for a transfer fee? That may be a slight exaggeration.

This is NOT an exageration. In soccer players are traded 95% of times for cash, and star players value could reach 40 million euros (something more than 41 million dollars) and some trades were higher.
So it is possible that similar tranfer fees will be used by russian hockey.

s7ark 02-28-2004 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoS
But what if the caps or the blackhawks were to turn their teams around with ovechkin? then the penguins would be royally screwed. and imo ovechkin > crosby so..... and btw, i think the fans and the city of pittsburgh can't endure another 20 win season. the pittsburgh penguins need a star right now. not tommorrow, not next year. right now


moot point since ovechkin is playing next year in russia. AT least that is what he said ealier this year and he did sign a contract that ends after next year's season...

jumptheshark 02-28-2004 02:47 PM

It would come down to law

Long story short

euro player would just start leaving--to play in NA earlier. Soccer(football) is a little different--all those leagues have agreements in place when it comes to transfers--until the euro teams can put themselves on the same page as NHL when it comes to money--they wont be able to hold players like soccer teams do.

However, when NHL teams start facing Euro teams for championship games--the way euro laws view transfer feees would be different.

(When say VAncouver plays Dynamo Riga. LA VS Praha selects--not VS an all star team, but an actual league team)

other Example

Say a 15 year old boy wants to move with his family to Vancouver, he is an underage child and Sweden(or other European country could not step up and say--5mill for him to come over)

Also, with so many euros in the JR's league--how can a Euro country or team lay claim to him?

Greg7 02-28-2004 02:54 PM

Quote:

As it stands if you finish last overall you have 45% chances to get the first round pick overall. (100- (21+15.1+10.9+8))
How do you figure that...
Don't all of the bottom 10 teams have a chance at the first overall pick, meaning the last place team's chances are 30% to get the number one pick? :dunno:

Your main point is unchanged, but all the cited probabilities go down by 15%.

Coffey77 02-28-2004 02:55 PM

This could suck for the NHL if Russia holds out on their players. And there are at least a couple of big ones (Malkin and Ovechkin) this year.

I still don't see the team with the first overall pick not picking Ovechkin. But they may listen to offers a little more if they are in financial trouble. Like Pittsburgh.

I really hope it isn't a rich get richer where a team like Detroit, NYR, Colorado etc. can get the first overall pick easily.

Habsolution 02-28-2004 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg7
How do you figure that...
Don't all of the bottom 10 teams have a chance at the first overall pick, meaning the last place team's chances are 30% to get the number one pick? :dunno:

Your main point is unchanged, but all the cited probabilities go down by 15%.

The numbers are correct.

Here's a link that explains it all :

CBA

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBA
Exhibit 4
Entry Draft Selection Modifications


The selection of the first round of the 1995 Entry Draft,
and Entry Drafts in years following, shall be determined as
follows:

(a) Clubs that do not make the playoffs participate in a
weighted drawing.

(b) These non-playoff Clubs shall be ranked in the inverse
order of their regular season point totals, with team #1 being
the Club with the worst record, team #10 being the Club with the
best record:


TEAM ODDS
1 30.0%
2 21.0%
3 15.1%
4 10.9%
5 8.0%
6 5.9%
7 4.2%
8 2.8%
9 1.6%
10 .5%


(c) There will be a drawing only for the first pick in the
first round.

(d) The winner of the weighted drawing receives the first
pick, except that no team may improve its position by more than 4
places in the order of selection. Thus, if the tenth team "won"
the drawing, it would select 6th in the Entry Draft.


t0mf00lery 02-28-2004 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg7
How do you figure that...
Don't all of the bottom 10 teams have a chance at the first overall pick, meaning the last place team's chances are 30% to get the number one pick? :dunno:

Your main point is unchanged, but all the cited probabilities go down by 15%.

I think you can only move up by 4 spots.

Habsolution 02-28-2004 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacobv2
5-10 million dollars for a transfer fee? That may be a slight exaggeration. I doubt even the Flyers or Rangers would be willing to shell that kind of cash out.

If it becomes a problem, couldn't whatever team drafts Ovechkin/Malkin just wait a year or two until his contract is up? Or smuggle him out of the country, a la Zherdev? It's not like the player is going to see a dime of that fee.

Even if that's a realistic figure, why would a team like the Penguins trade the pick? It'd be more beneficial to just draft a non-Russian, or to draft the Russian if only to hold his rights and then possibly trade him down the line, or just wait for the IIHF to work things out.

This all sounds really far fetched.

It may or may not happen. I really have no clue but I heard about it being a possibility. My thread was assuming it happens. Even if it didn't happen. I could still see incentives for two teams that are very likely to compete for the last spot overall to do that because it increases the chances to get the first pick overall in a given year and also gives an opportunity to a team to draft twice in a given draft in the top 5. But I admit it's quite risky.


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