2009 Roster Moves and Contract Talks. Contract Numbers (Post #1/#826).
EDIT: A lot is changing in this O/P in the numbers section. Although the original post remains, all numbers will be updated below as deals happen.
On FSN Detroit tonight during the 2nd intermission, Ken Holland had an interview in which he discussed contract negotiations and the roster. Granted Holland always plays close to the chest, I wanted to talk about a couple of things he said and expand on them a bit.
I was trying to fit this interview into Zetterberg's thread, or Mule's thread, or Hudler's thread, etc., but I realized it covers them all so rather than repost it in all of them, I made a separate thread. :D
In the interview, Holland was directly asked how contract negotiations with Zetterberg were going. He paused and mentioned that initially his negotiations centered around shorter contract lengths; now they are discussing longer contracts. He wouldn't give too much more away, Zetterberg being the future captain was referred to (we've talked about this).
Holland went on in the interview to discuss a bit about his approach and philosophy on the free agent contract negotiations. He felt we could sign 2 of our big 3 free agents relatively easily, but was sure to mention there was a lot of others who needed new deals and the money had to be spread around. Holland mentioned that depth-player contracts are very important in terms of cap management.
In terms of the cap, Holland seemed cautious. He seemed to feel that they wanted to work out lower salary numbers given the uncertain economic future and it's effect on the actual cap number. I infer reference to both the value of the dollar in the US and Canada, and the overall economic slowdown and credit crisis. Holland said he wanted to keep the cap number projections low. He, like myself, may be predicting it goes up minimally next year, and possibly declines in following years.
Although there are people who are amazing with tables and stats who could probably make this look prettier, I wanted to cull some numbers to bring to the discussion.
Red Wings salary cap info from NHLscap/hockeybuzz Red Wings page
Detroit Red Wings Payroll:
2008-2009 Actual Payroll: $ 56,450,000
2008-2009 Salary Cap Payroll: $ 56,473,333
2008-2009 Cap Space: $ 226,667
2009-2010 Actual Payroll: $ 53,750,000
2009-2010 Salary Cap Payroll: $ 51,254,544
2009-2010 Cap Space: unknown
Numbers will update as contracts are signed
Red Wings' UFAs after 2008-2009 season (and current cap hit)
Hossa = $ 7,450,000
Zetterberg = $ 2,650,000 UPDATE Jan 28/09: Signed 12 year deal for $ 72 million. Cap hit of $ 6,083,333
Samuelsson = $ 1,200,000
Franzen = $ 942,000 UPDATE Apr 11/09: Signed an 11 year deal for almost $ 44 million. Cap hit of $ 3,954,545
McCarty = $ 575,000
Haydar = $ 525,000
Downey = $ 500,000
Kopecky = $ 500,000
Chelios = $ 750,000
Conklin = $ 750,000
Red Wings' RFAs after 2008-2009 season (and current cap hit)
Hudler = $ 1,015,000 (arbitration eligible)
Leino = $ 875,000 (arbitration eligible)
McGrath = $ 633,333
Oulahen = $ 522,500 (arbitration eligible)
Gelech = $ 487,500
Red Wings' 2010-2011 UFAs
Forwards: Holmstrom, Maltby
Defence/Goalies: Lebda, Lidstrom, Lilja
Red Wings' 2010-2011 RFAs
Forwards: Abdelkader, Helm, Ryno, Tardif, Ritola
Defence/Goalies: Larsson, Kindl, Kolasau, Meech
Red Wings Contracts on the Book
Red Wings NTC/NMC Contracts
Daniel Cleary, DET - NTC [in effect until 30 days prior to the 2011-12 trade deadline]
Pavel Datsyuk - NMC [until end of 2010-11 season, then has a partial NTC]
Kris Draper - NTC
Marian Hossa - NMC
Nicklas Lidstrom - NMC
Brian Rafalski - NTC
Brad Stuart - NTC [for 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons]
New Deals (dates unknown yet):
Franzen - NTC [until 2014/2015 then limited NMC] (exact year unknown)
Zetterberg - NTC
As you can see, currently we have a little under half a million dollars to make roster moves. If anyone goes on LTIR they have their salary deducted from the cap temporarily and a sub can be called up, but I believe the sub's salary (adjusted for games played) will count against the cap at the end of the year.
For this year's trade deadline, Holland is unlikely to unload guys who he just signed to deals, as he has not done that in the past. He may not have much room under the cap for much otherwise, though, which leaves him with relatively few options. If he unloads a free agent he feels he can't afford anyways next year, likely they will earn at most $1,200,000 (Sammy) so the pro-rated cap hit will still not give him much room. Hossa was an all-or-nothing signing which eliminated much trade-deadline wiggle room.
For next season, Holland will have to measure future cap projections, as well as whether or not to dole out more NTC/NMC contracts, which I would like to see a minimum of. If he can get our free agents to take a long-term view of the team and the cap, maybe they will sign for some discount; otherwise many free agents may fly the coop.
2009 roster moves will be critical for our team as the next two seasons we have many free agents to negotiate with. The club has to lay a stable future for the uncertain economy and still try and keep all this talent together.
What do you think of our future contracts, ongoing negotiations, and our pending free agents in the next couple of season? How well does the future bode? :help:
I would love to see Filppulaa traded, he is not worth 3 million, not even close actually. That would give us more space to resign Zetterberg, Franzen, Samuelsson and Hudler.
Zetterberg is not better than Datsyuk, so I can't see him getting more than 7 million a year.
Mule would be good deal for 3.5 million
Gone after this season (I hope):
Gone (too bad :( )
Filppula (for picks)
Datsyuk (6.7) Zetterberg (6.7) Holmstrom (2.25) = 15.65
Hudler (1.5) Franzen (3.5) Cleary (2.8) = 7.8
Leino (1) Helm (0.5) Samuelsson (1.5) = 3
Maltby (0.9) Draper (1.5) Downey (0.5) = 2.9
Lidstrom(7.4) Rafalski (6) = 13.4
Kronwall (3) Stuart (3.75) = 6.75
Ericsson(0.9) Lilja(1.25) = 2.15
extra: Meech (0.5)
If Wings could sign Franzen for 3.5 it would be an absolute steal. That is a major paycut. I dont see Z getting under 7.. I think Hudler is gone though, I dont see him sign at 2 mill per year..
Personally I thought that interview was just Holland Posturing for contract negotiations. But the two most important things he said were...
1. We talk about the new england patriots alot and you cant have too many superstars.
2. I wanna work out a contract that allows him to walk around the locker room and not upset anyone and that he can be proud of.
Point is this wings team is a house of cards. Better to let Z, hossa, franzen walk then sign any of them to 8M contracts. Once you do it for one guy you have to do it for the next etc and thats how you ruin a locker room.
They earned the money but they will not be getting Market rate in motown. PERIOD.
Id offer Z- 7.6M X 6 years.
Hossa 7.3 x 5 years.
Hudler 6x 3M (maybe a bit high but its a growth contract)
Sammy 2 x 1.5
Franzen 4x 4.0
Obviously we cant fit all those deals under our cap at the same time. But thats my ballpark figures. If players scofff at those numbers which if they want true market value they will... They can leave. We will find a different way to use our cap space.
i tried to get something like this going in said cap tracker thread, but since this popped up, i'll paste my [updated] thoughts.
here's what i came up with:
re-sign Hank, $7.25mil avg; more than fair, under the Lidstrom cap
re-sign Mule, $3.5mil avg; if he wants more, especially considering the cap uncertainty beyond next year, let him go and start to totally re-tinker and try to fit Hossa in - he's worth cap hell, Franzen not so much
re-sign Leino, $1mil avg; slight raise, could be kind of like the Hudler of the past couple of years
re-sign Huds, $2.75mil avg; probably less than market value, but if he wants to break the bank, he can run away with Lazy Bob and live in his basement in Montreal
put Meech at 12th forward for the entire season. i forgot how good he was on the point of the 2nd pp unit until seeing him finally get time there again. with Sammy [hopefully] gone, that spot's open for him.
promote Helm, $.6k avg; needs to be with the big club, would like to replace Malts and Drapes at the same time, but i don't see that happening
promote Big Rig, $.9k avg; also needs to be with the big club, slight savings over Lilly, with much higher upside
promote Howie, $.72k avg; costs the same as your run of the mill vet backup, and would get a chance to show if he's capable of shouldering the load if/when Ozzie struggles - dump him if he fails
trade Lilly, lose DMac, lose Cheli, lose Kopecky unless we lose Malts (retirement?)
Hank - Dats - Homer (7.25+6.7+2.25) 16.2
Mule - Flip - Cleary (3.5+3+2.8) 9.3
Leino - Helm - Huds (1+.599444+2.75) 4.349444
Malts - Drapes - Meech (.883333+1.583333+.483333) 2.949996
Liddy - Raffy (7.45+6) 13.45
Kronner - Stuy (3+3.75) 6.75
Big Rig - Lebda (.9+.65) 1.55
grand total: $56,682,774
I'm pretty sure that Hudler and Franzen are gone. There's nothing Holland can do about that.
Assuming we lose those two, it becomes trivial to retain Samuelsson. Some combo of Leino, Helm, Abdelkader, etc. will have to fill in the holes left by Huds & Mule.
Whether Z or Hossa stay depends on if they will accept a Datsyuk-esque contract. As solo stated, I interpreted Holland's comments to mean that nobody is going to get a big dollar (say bigger than Lidstrom's) salary on a long term contract. These superstars either buy in, or they walk.
That's all the speculation I'm going to do for now because there are two very critical questions that need to be answered before we can piece together more of the puzzle.
1. What is the new salary cap going to look like? It is looking like the projected cap won't change much from this season's, but who knows what will happen in the next few months. Regular season revenue is pretty much locked in, but team's haven't tried to sell any playoff tickets yet. Additionally, IIRC the NHLPA can opt out of the current CBA after the conclusion of this season. Will they?
2. Goaltending is a major, major question mark. On the two proposed rosters I see one Osgood / Conklin combo, and one Osgood / Howard tandem. IMO, based on Osgood's play so far this season neither of those are reasonable suggestions. Conklin has saved our bacon to this point with his solid play. However, can he (or any backup) be counted on in the playoffs if Osgood continues to suck?
We all know what type of GM Ken Holland is. If he has doubts about Osgood, he is going to acquire a veteran goaltender who he believes the team can win the cup with. If that happens, it is going to cost a lot more than the money slotted for Conklin or Howard, and that will have a huge impact on the rest of the roster.
Datsyuk (6.7) Zetterberg (7.5) Holmstrom (2.25)
Hudler (3) Franzen (4) Cleary (2.8)
Helm (0.5) Filppula (3) Leino (1)
Maltby (0.9) Draper (1.5) Kopecky (0.7)
Lidstrom (7.4) Rafalski (6)
Kronwall (3) Stuart (3.75)
Ericsson (0.9) Lilja (1.25)
extra: Meech (0.5)
Total: 58.85 (:help:)
we always assume players will take discount to stay in detroit
but this discount isn't that big as people think of
Datsyuk at 6.7 is discount now but at the time deal was signed the cap was much smaller
if Z gets same proportion of cap as Dats when he first got his contract, Z would get 7.5~8 (didn't really check the actual numbers)
Cleary got 2.8M, sure he would've got a bit more but i don't think it would be that far off
Flip at 3M is probably same as any other team would've offered, actually i think it is more than other teams because to other teams Flip isn't that important to their system
Stuart at 3.75M is a bit lower than market but not by much
sure there are teams who would offer way more but for teams that are in same/close position of red wings (contender) would offer something close to what we offered.
with that in mind i think detroit would offer the following
there is no way Z gets 6.7M as people say i say 7.5~8 for long term deal (7~10 years)
Franzen earned less than 1M until now, i am sure he wants to cash in and he is in very good position to do so
3.5~4.5 for 3~5 year deal
Hudler 2.5~3.5 for 2~3 year deal
Sammy 1.5M for 2 years
Hossa is as good as gone but if franzen and hudler both leaves than
6.5~7.5 for 4~5 year
i know not all players can accept and fit under cap but i think that's how detroit would offer
and i don't think holland is going to trade anyone who gets 3M+
not really a smart thing to do with the cap world
either we trade flip/cleary or we don't sign both hudler and franzen
How the Wings can sign them all.
At some point the stars on the Wings should realize what a good thing they have going and that not everything about playing for this Wings team can be reduced to a dollar amount in salary. Put another way, I think these guys realize there's economic value to playing for the best organization in the league and competing for the Stanley Cup just about every season.
What does this mean? It means that the leaders of the team should get together and decide how much each of them needs to concede in salary to keep this great team together. Usually in salary negotiations, players are trying to get management to concede to them, but Mike Illitch has paid this team alomst every dollar he has to pay in salary (except for a very small amount) under the salary cap. The Wings need to realize that by demanding "market" value, they will be, in effect, breaking up the team. It's not players against management now; it's players against the rest of the team.
How would it work? Well, in rough terms, Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Hossa, Franzen, and Filppula need to decide how to divide the pie. Lids and Datysuk needs to show some leadership and concede some salary back to the Wings, just as Yzerman did once to keep the team together. Zetterberg, Hossa, Franzen, and Filppula need to accept less than "market" for the benefit of keeping the team together.
Those guys who question whether playing for the Wings is so valuable that they should agree to approach salary this way should talk to Stuart or Hossa, both of whom know what it's like to exiled on a team that is not competitive.
This approach can work.
Contracts can't be renegotiated with the new CBA.
There's no way for Datsyuk, Filppula, Stuart, etc to "concede salary back".
One point to reiterate. Hossa is reported to have said before joining the team that he believed Detroit was in a perfect salary situation for 08-09 and that they couldn't keep the team intact with all the players due raises the next year.
Unfortunately Rafi, Stuart, Cleary will not be traded so drop them from the conversation.
Kronwall could be traded but I think he is considerably less likely then filpulla.
There is not one player on the team aside from our excess D likely to be traded.
Filpulla (most likely to be traded)
Lebda (not enough salary to matter)
Lija (not enough salary to matter)
Kronwall (possibly too important to be traded)
Is our trade block atm.
Zetterberg (most likely to stay)
Sammy (second most likely to stay imo because he will take the cheepest deal)
Is our UFAs that could walk/be traded. Filpulla will be evaluated in light of Hudler, Franzen, Zetterberg, and Hossa's salary demands. He is fairly likely to be a cap casualty if the UFAs are willing to take reasonable contracts if Holland determines them more important then filp. Honestly the only question is who would detroit rather keep Filp or Hudler in my mind. Its clear if we can keep franzen at the expense of Filp we do it. Same for hossa and zetterberg.
Just accept that we're going to lose Hossa or Franzen and enjoy this team while we have it. I suppose all 3 could take massive discounts to fit under the cap, but I can't see that. If Holland somehow pulled it off they should just crown him Emporer of the NHL and force him to retire to give the rest of the league a chance.
You make good points Solo, but I don't think I am willing to go so far as to say Filpulla will be traded. I know that the salary cap has only been around for several years and some of the dogmas are being re-written regarding ways to build teams. However in his entire GM history, IIRC, Holland has never traded someone with a few years left on his contract, let alone someone he just signed to a deal.
I really don't think we will be making any trade deadline moves this year. As you point out, we have little trade bait, beyond Filpulla, which I think won't happen. Unless there is a crisis, which so far there hasn't been, we should be standing pat.
You mentioned points from Holland's interview earlier that I had forgotten to include:
In our contract negotiations, I believe two contracts will stand as bookends: Cleary's and Lidstrom's.
Cleary's contract will provide the floor for all talented players to negotiate as a baseline. I feel he was paid a half million too much, and that may trickle down to paying people more than we would like. Certainly Cleary's performance since signing the contract fell off, especially since coming back from the broken jaw and also the eye problems. Franzen will certainly want more than a marginally higher salary than Cleary given the relative impact of the two players.
Lidstrom's contract will keep high salary demands in check. The sketchy economic future and Lidstrom's contract may keep Zetterberg closer to $8 million per season than $9 million.
Either way, between Franzen who we can likely sign for less than $5 million, Zetterberg who will be around $8 million, and trying to get good value from depth guys like Sammy or Hudler (preferably), Hossa will certainly be the odd man out and be gone next year.
I still think there's a way to do it, but only if the players have the will.
How about this: Z and Hossa take short money for 1-2 seasons until Lidstrom's current contract expires. Lidstrom will probably retire at that point (he will be somewhere in the 39-40 year-old range). That will put 7.5 million into the pot, plus incremental increases in the salary cap. At that point, the Wings can make it up to Z and Hossa with heavy contracts.
If I had to pick 2 players to keep, I'd go Zetterberg and Hudler.
Look at it this way: If you knew you could have Z, Hossa, and Franzen if you wanted, would you take them? What the @*&#%! Is this a trick question? Of course you would! Well, that's the position the Wings are in. They can have all those guys if they want them. All they have to do is simply release/trade as much salary as necessary to keep them. Think about it. Letting Hossa or Franzen walk is just like releasing other guys on the team, so why not release the other guys and sign Hossa and Franzen?
This does not seem like a hard choice.
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