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-   -   Will Mike Green win the Norris? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=605003)

Bananas 02-08-2009 08:26 PM

Will Mike Green win the Norris?
 
He is on an absolute tear and I think is definitely barging in to the Norris Trophy conversation. We've had some conversations in other threads on this topic, but I feel it's time for the "official" Caps fan discussion.

AllIsFehrNLoveAndWar 02-08-2009 08:38 PM

Probably not this year.

The Viking Fury 02-08-2009 09:02 PM

Not this year (if ever). I think you need a couple of years of being nominated to get a person;s name in the voters' heads.

Portable Mink 02-08-2009 09:10 PM

I will say...... No.
he wont win it.

do i think he should get consideration to win it?
i dont see why not.

He is leading or amongst the leaders in a whole range of recorded statistics, which could easily support a 'FOR Norris' argument.

There is more to it than that though. He would need to get that far ahead of anyone else in terms of goals and points, because of his exagerrated shortcomings that i feel its almost impossible for him to win it.

Chara is the frontrunner and deservedly so.

IF IF IF Green can keep this riot like pace going that hes had the last 6-7 games, who knows.

I would say he could win it, if he gets to 30 goals. Thats a big big ask but its a necessary requirement for HIM to be considered ahead of say Chara.

txpd 02-08-2009 09:16 PM

No is the easy answer. If he keeps scoring at a rate anything like what he has the last 20 games, then he might create some pressure there. I think a 30 goal 90 pts season would have to win a defenseman the norris. I just dont think he can make it. 11 goals in 29 games.

Now...I do drool at the prospect of Green and Pronger as a d pair. That is scary.

backs4mvp 02-08-2009 09:25 PM

He'll be a finalist.

If Green can manage 30 goals, ~75 points in 69 games, no other dman hits 65 points, and Chara tops out max at 45 points, then I think Green would become the favorite. You win the Norris by reputation, or by being noticed. Being the first dman to score 30 goals in 16 years, and the first dman to have over a point per game in 13 years, will get you noticed.

brs03 02-08-2009 09:34 PM

I don't think he will. Based on the recent media hype surrounding him, I think he's an easy second place, but I can't see him winning it this early in his career. I guess it will all depend on his final numbers, though.

Vi 02-08-2009 09:40 PM

No, I don't think so. It seems like he has too much to make up at this point since a lot of people were already declaring it Chara's year a month ago. I sure can see him making it close, though.

The fact that it is even a consideration, though... that's just amazing. I look forward to the day that the Caps take both the Hart and the Norris in the same season. :)

CapsWolverinesUSA 02-08-2009 09:42 PM

Finalist but not a winner.

RandyHolt 02-08-2009 09:48 PM

Yes but only if he keeps goal scoring at his insane recent pace. A 30+ goal scorer in this era may get it for him, maybe 35 is the magic number. Scoring is down in the new NHL; heck at 5th in the league we average a paltry 3.25 per game. A jaw dropping high scoring defenseman may be exactly what the league will want in a Norris guy before too long. Chara must be loving life all but handed the Norris already from his play in other years, playing in front of Taylor on a good team. I would love for an upset in MG.

KenAF 02-08-2009 10:01 PM

I voted no.

If Mike Green scores 30 goals, I think he'll finish 2nd in the voting. I don't think he gets first unless he scores 35. There's no way people could ignore that.

strungout 02-08-2009 10:06 PM

F it.

I say he wins it....with a torrid pace the rest of the season...scoring 30+ goals and 75+ points and stealing votes from Chara since the NHL is wanting to go with the offense over defense angle.

Efactor 02-08-2009 10:35 PM

He didn't make the allstar team. Give me a list of Norris winners who didn't make the allsatr team.

Also he's a pretty good right wing and a half-ass defenseman. He will lead in defenseman goals again tho.

EroCaps 02-08-2009 10:58 PM

If he keeps scoring like he has the last 40 games he has as good a shot as any D.

CapsWolverinesUSA 02-08-2009 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Efactor (Post 17809378)
He didn't make the allstar team. Give me a list of Norris winners who didn't make the allsatr team.

Also he's a pretty good right wing and a half-ass defenseman. He will lead in defenseman goals again tho.

This comment brought to you by a guy with 53 posts who started the "GMGM should shake up this team" thread after we had the nerve to lose 3 straight games.

Devil Dancer 02-08-2009 11:10 PM

30 goals might do it. He's getting a lot of positive press right now, and sometimes that's all it takes for the Norris. Throw in a fresh round of media coverage as he gets to 30 and he might have the votes to pull it off.

Ultimately I think no, but it's certainly possible.

Drake1588 02-08-2009 11:33 PM

Of all the major awards, the Norris is the most Lifetime AchievementyTM

A player who has been a Titan in the game generally takes home this award, and it is exceptionally rare for a younger player to win it following a meteoric rise. Consider how long Chara has waited: He'll probably win his first Norris this season. That award will be not only for his play this year, but because he has been an elite NHL defenseman for almost a decade. To many voters, it is simply 'time' that Chara get recognition for his body of work. Sure, Chara is deserving on sheer merit this season, but he has also gone years without the recognition. Lifetime Achievement.

Green won't win it. He will likely place 2nd or 3rd, in a group that also probably includes Chara (winner) and Lidstrom or Boyle.

Yet what Green IS doing this year is laying the foundation to be among the frontrunners in future years. He'll be among the top four or five names that automatically occur to voters every year now. That's an important step for him. Winning the Norris is a gradual process. The slate isn't wiped clean each October. Maybe it should be, but it isn't.

I've been thinking that he's five years away, and still think that is a pretty fair estimate, but he could shave two or three years off of that wait period by improving slightly, and/or having Papa McPhee give him an elite shutdown partner for Christmas one of these days.

Green's pairing needs to tighten up defensively, and if his partner was able to do the heavy lifting in that regard, Green would probably be a legitimate Norris threat. He's not yet there, though, and he does not yet have a regular partner. His pairing still gives up bad goals from time to time. Even though Green produces more goals than his pairing gives up, those liabilities on the score sheet still matter, despite net positives to his plus/minus figures.

Green needs his Jeff Beukeboom, or his Joe Reekie, to use a recent Capitals historical analogy.

Foy 02-09-2009 08:13 AM

I would argue that the Vezina is just as lifetime achievementy, especially after Jim Carey won it, it seemed to go a guy that had been around for a while.

El Maestro 02-09-2009 10:28 AM

No, he's maybe the best offensive defenseman of the league but it's not enough to win the Norris.

strungout 02-09-2009 10:32 AM

If he scores 30+ goals with a high +/-....he's winning the thing. Overall defensive ability and seniority be dammed.

Edit: Or not. Chara is the front runner...I'm just saying. If Green puts up major numbers...I can see him winning it.

txpd 02-09-2009 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djo89 (Post 17813649)
No, he's maybe the best offensive defenseman of the league but it's not enough to win the Norris.

Its a matter of how much better. Isn't it? Its all a matter of degrees. If Green cools off and leads in scoring on defense, by a point or two, that is not a margin to make up for the difference in D zone impact that Chara has. Even with the 12 games missed.

Should he win in a walk by 10 to 15 pts with the 12 games missed, thats different.

BrooklynCapsFan 02-09-2009 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strungout (Post 17813706)
If he scores 30+ goals with a high +/-....he's winning the thing. Overall defensive ability and seniority be dammed.

Edit: Or not. Chara is the front runner...I'm just saying. If Green puts up major numbers...I can see him winning it.

I don't have much faith in the voters' analytical abilities. In the end I think it will come down to what is more impressive: leading dman scoring by XX points or winning the eastern conference by XX points. I think Green has a very good chance...especially if we creep up on Boston.

Drake1588 02-09-2009 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strungout (Post 17813706)
If he scores 30+ goals with a high +/-....he's winning the thing. Overall defensive ability and seniority be dammed.

Edit: Or not. Chara is the front runner...I'm just saying. If Green puts up major numbers...I can see him winning it.

I disagree. Goals numbering 20 versus 30 will not tip the scales. There is certainly a production tier at which defensive prowess simply doesn't matter, but it's on the Paul Coffey scale. If Green hits 80 points, it's not enough. He'd need to hit triple digits for his defense to be a non-factor this year.

It's notable that Coffey won just two Norris Trophies in the 80s, and a third in the mid-90s, largely because the defense and all-around game from Rod Langway, Chris Chelios and Ray Bourque was so much better during Coffey's peak offensive output. In Coffey's 1980s Norris seasons in 84-85 and 85-86, he posted numbers of 37-84-121 and 48-90-138. Barring thoroughly obscene production from someone in a given year, defense matters in Norris voting.

Voters, to me, have already decided on Chara. Hard to argue the selection.

strungout 02-09-2009 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake1588 (Post 17814054)
I disagree. Goals numbering 20 versus 30 will not tip the scales. There is certainly a production tier at which defensive prowess simply doesn't matter, but it's on the Paul Coffey scale. If Green hits 80 points, it's not enough. He'd need to hit triple digits for his defense to be a non-factor this year.

It's notable that Coffey won just two Norris Trophies in the 80s, and a third in the mid-90s, largely because the defense and all-around game from Rod Langway, Chris Chelios and Ray Bourque was so much better during Coffey's peak offensive output. In Coffey's 1980s Norris seasons in 84-85 and 85-86, he posted numbers of 37-84-121 and 48-90-138. Barring thoroughly obscene production from someone in a given year, defense matters in Norris voting.

Voters, to me, have already decided on Chara. Hard to argue the selection.

Bah, that's likely true. But I think you're going to see quite a change in voting if Green keeps this up at this rate. He's changing things.

I don't think it's fair to compare numbers from those 80's teams with the numbers from today. Two different balls of wax when comparing talent pools and styles of play. I mean, over the past 5 years the threshold for leading defensmen in point has been, what, 80 by Lidstrom a few years back? If Green hits 80...with a +/- in the 30 range (which is the key)...I think he has a really good shot at winning the thing when all things considered.

We'll see. I think it'll be close.

Souray44 02-09-2009 11:25 AM

I hope he wins it. He's putting up a sick season.


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