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-   -   If there is no hockey next year (Draft question) (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=63322)

SML 03-19-2004 10:47 AM

If there is no hockey next year (Draft question)
 
I have been lurking around for some time now, been kinda busy, but I have seen several posters mention that if there were no hockey next year, that Pittsburgh would maintain the #1 position for the following year's draft. Does anybody know if this is indeed fact, or speculation? I find it hard to believe that even if the league truly believed there were going to be a work stoppage, that they would be so pessimistic as to already announce what is going to happen. It seems to me that a better solution would be just to not hold a draft at all. The following year's draft would be twice as deep and would at least be based on a season that was actually played, rather than rewarding Pittsburgh for their tank-job with two first overall picks, that just happen to be two of the most highly touted prospects in recent years.
Thanks,
SML

Martin 03-19-2004 10:57 AM

I believe it's true, yes.


Though Pittsburgh wouldn't automatically get the first pick. It would be the same lottery system as this year, with the same percent chance of a lower-placed team getting the #1 pick as this year.


So basically, if no hockey is played next season, next year's draft lottery would be conducted the same way as if a full season was played, and every team finished exactly the same as they did this year.


Er, hope that's not confusing. But with the lottery system, even if the Penguins get the #1 pick this year, there's no guarantee they won't next year, and vice-versa.

Jaded-Fan 03-19-2004 11:06 AM

The team finishing last would have basically a coin flip (just over 48%) chance of drafting first as they have their chances plus all the chances of teams from 6 on, as no team from 6 down can move up to picking first. This would be true this year, and next if the season is lost to a strike, so a virtual coin flip for Ovechkin and Crosby. The other advantage is that a team can drop no lower than one spot, so if you finish last you at worst get the consolation prize of Malkin, widely considered to be a bit of a drop from Ovechkin, but not a huge drop, and head and shoulders above about a dozen who you could throw into a hat, not much difference between them.

For those who care, the team finishing next to last has about a 17.5% chance so the drop is significant between 30 and 29.

Brooklyn Ranger 03-19-2004 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SML
I have been lurking around for some time now, been kinda busy, but I have seen several posters mention that if there were no hockey next year, that Pittsburgh would maintain the #1 position for the following year's draft. Does anybody know if this is indeed fact, or speculation? I find it hard to believe that even if the league truly believed there were going to be a work stoppage, that they would be so pessimistic as to already announce what is going to happen. It seems to me that a better solution would be just to not hold a draft at all. The following year's draft would be twice as deep and would at least be based on a season that was actually played, rather than rewarding Pittsburgh for their tank-job with two first overall picks, that just happen to be two of the most highly touted prospects in recent years.
Thanks,
SML

It's spectulation, but I've seen it coming from the ownership side, not the players side.

RangersFan 03-20-2004 02:59 AM

All the more reason why it is so important for the Ranger to finish in the bottom five...

NYRBlaznBure9 03-20-2004 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RangersFan
All the more reason why it is so important for the Ranger to finish in the bottom five...

I agree...I say Sather laces 'em up and plays goalie or something..


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