Horton/Olesz or Horton/Stillman
 

Was wondering what realistically Horton coupled with one of these two guys could fetch. Looking for a signed for a couple years younger player with skill.

Should the Sedins make it to FA, I think JM will make a run to try to get them. To help clear cap space for them, I can see Nate on the block with one of these two is they're somehow able to sign the twins. Nate and Rusty equal a cap space of 7.125, Nate and Stiller 7.533.

*I don't think the Sedins are going anywhere but Vancouver and I don't think Stillman will be moved, either. I just think he'd have more value than Olesz.

**just for kicks and giggles!

The Sedins should sign with Florida for kicks and giggles.

Horton, Olesz and Stillman all fall into the unfortunate category of the 2nd line, $3-4million player that nobody is really interested in giving up a lot for. While they are all good players, many teams have guys that play similar roles for cheaper; and they are the first to get the axe when a team who has stars needs to trim salary (like Staal in Pittsburgh, Lupul in Philly, Malone in Tampa). Teams are also especially cautious because the 10-11 salary cap could plummet if the economy doesn't turn around.

Horton and Olesz have similar quality and type of value; becuase they are young, with the potential to improve, and locked up very long term. Chances are that you'll get an NHL ready top prospect (albiet not an elite one like Van Riemsdyk, Filatov, Hodgson, etc), and a 3rd line roster player or 2nd round draft pick.

It'll be from a team who has an abundance of prospects in a certain position, and who wants to accelerate their building process with a young proven NHL player. A team like Toronto would problably throw out an offer of Tlusty & Stempniak or Tlusty & a 2nd rounder for either of these guys.

In terms of Stillman, his value is much less in terms of quality and also much older. The teams who are looking at him have cap space right now, but are also planning on contending immidiately. This list of teams is pretty short so there isn't exactly going to be a bidding war on a guy like him. The expected return would problably be a mid-level prospect and 2nd or 3rd round pick. A team like Carolina would problably offer a guy like Zac Dalpe & a 3rd for him.

First - I don't know how you can think that Horton & Olesz have similiar value. Horton would return a ton a trade, because he's locked up long term, his current production warrants what he's getting paid, and as he matures he has the potential to improve his consistency and be a legit 1st line player.

Olesz can't stay healthy, and is being WAY overpaid unless he can turn into a legit scoring line player. He has shown glimpses - but can't stay healthy long enough, or brought produced consistently enough to show he's worth his contract. I bet his value would be REALLY limited right now.

Assuming J-Bo doesn't resign, from the Hawks, if he'd waive his NTC, I trade Campbell, Versteeg & CHI's 1st round DP for Horton & Olesz.

Horton is a beast. It's only a matter of time before he hits 40 goals. Power forwards like him usually take a bit longer to develop, but when they do, look out! There aren't many guys with that combination of size and scoring ability. He wasn't drafted 3rd overall for nothing.

Tlusty & Stempniak/2nd rounder wouldn't be nearly enough.

More like Kaberle & Tlusty/Stajan, and that's just to get talks going.

Horton is Florida's most dangerous/valuable forward, and after parting ways with Jokinen and also on the verge of losing J-Bo, it will take a king's ransom to pry him out of there.

The bidding for Horton would be intense - there are a lot of teams that would love to have him.

There may be a few guys drafted after him in 2003 who have surpassed his ability (Getzlaf, Richards, Phaneuf, Carter, Parise, etc.), but he still has a ton of value, and his best is yet to come.

If I'm Brian Burke, I'd be willing to give Florida any Leaf forward AND any defenseman not named Schenn for Horton.

Seems like a lot, but he'd easily become the Leafs best forward, and he's Burke type player.

That said, I don't see him going anywhere.

Jordan Staal straight-up for Horton might also make some sense for both teams. Pittsburgh gets a young power forward for Crosby/Malkin, Florida gets a natural centre instead of shifting Horton to centre where he's not nearly as effective.

I really hope Horton isn't traded. It would be premature to discard him as a player not worth keeping.

As we've seen recently, a long term contract isn't always a good thing. Horton is also a player who has failed to elevate his game to the next level (beyond the 60 point pace) despite having tons of opportunity in Florida. While the potential exists for him to break out; there aren't going to be a ton of teams that are going to be lining up to give up premier assets and $4million in cap space to him. The cap is expected to fall for 08-09 and trading a young player for him would be a big risk. He's the kind of player who is a boom or bust; either he's going to be a first line player at a bargain price of $4million or an overpaid 2nd liner who you've gotta get rid of because the cap is falling. If the latter occurs, giving up a future top 6 prospect would've been a bad idea because that prospect comes in at $1.5million.

Olesz' value benefits from the $900k less in cap hit. While injured, he's shown more flashes of offensive brilliance when in the lineup, and the thought is that if he can get healthy, he'll be a decent first line player (wheras Horton for the most part hasn't had health issues).

If Chicago does decide to clear out Campbell, then Horton & Olesz should become legitamite considerations to boost thier offensive depth as a 2nd line behind Toews & Kane; but you've gotta be VERY careful in how much money you commit. They're in a great cap position this year, but for 10-11 Kane, Toews, Ladd, and Keith will all be in for BIG raises. Plus, Barker needs a new contract this year. Committing $7milllion in cap space to a pair of 2nd line players may not be the best move.



As for the Leafs giving up more, it just doesn't make sense. He's far from a guarantee to develop into a top line player; although I'd love to give him a shot. You say there are a lot of teams who would love to have him, I'm not so sure this is the case when you factor in his salary & the required return of an NHL ready top prospect.

Jordan Staal for Horton straight up definitely makes sense if Pittsburgh is in fact able to juggle it with the cap. Otherwise, there really wouldn't be much motivation for Florida to move Horton (he is their best forward, mostly because Florida's forwards aren't very good) unless they look to bring in some big-salaried guys up front for the top line and then are in a position looking to save some money.

I have a couple of issues with your post:
1) Horton & Staal have an identical cap hit - so there is no cap impact.
2) Vertsteeg & Campbell will have a higher cap hit than Horton & Olesz, so the deal would actually be freeing up cap space for the Hawks. Also - if they had to make a cap move it would be A LOT easier to move Horton or Olesz's contract than it would Campbell down the road. I think that FLA might do the deal because they would add 2 quality players, and add a 1st round DP while only really losing Horton's current production.
3) I just don't see how you can compare Horton and Olesz at this point. Horton, right now, is a legit scoring line player with consistency issues. As much as I like Olesz, he's never produced enough to consider him a scoring line player, and while his lack of ability to stay healthy plays into that, he also has confidence/consistency issues as well. I guarantee you that EVERY GM in the NHL would rather have Horton's $4M long term contract instead of Olesz's $3.1M long term contract.

Horton and Olesz for Gomez

The cap hits are equal

1. As it stands right now Pittsburgh cannot afford to keep Staal; so they couldn't afford to trade him for Horton either.

2. There's no question that the Hawks should look to move Campbell, but if doing so means you're bringing on $4million in Horton it problably doesn't make sense because you can't afford to keep either long term. The Hawks should be looking to move Campbell for a players in the sub-$3million range & a few future picks for trade deadline bait.

3. Horton doesn't have consistency issues; he's got production issues. He's been a very consistent .75ppg producer over the last few years; and just hasn't been able to elevate himself to a legitamite #1 line player. Olesz is the one with consistency issues although he has shown flashes of being the first line player that the Panthers need. To say that every GM would rather have Horton's contract is pretty short sighted, that 900k makes a difference and if you're deep in 50-60 point players, Olesz is definitely the better risk to take.

No, Horton has consistency issues. He waivers between the beast he should be and a somewhat lazy player. Potvin would often say, "A mad Nate, is a very good Nate." He'd elevate his game, but for some reason he can't play that way game in and game out. Too much time around Olli, imo.

I'd LOVE to have Jordan in a Panther sweater, but I'd like him here to help Horton, not replace him. Not sure how that happens, probably won't anyway.

1) I think that PITT could afford to pay Horton $4M to be a legit 1st line winger. The problem is that they can't afford to pay Staal $4M to play 3rd line center. With the salary they have coming off the books (Satan, Fedetekno, Guerin) - Horton would be a great fit for them.

2) IMO - the Hawks could afford to pay Horton $4M, as he would likely step into Havlat's spot. Moving Campbell really alleviates the salary issue on the blueline for the Hawks moving forward. The Hawks also have Bulin and his $6.75M coming off the books - so they'd have plenty of room for Horton and Olesz IMO.

3) Like Laus said - Horton is inconsistent with his effort, which keeps him at a 60 point pace. I don't think it's short sighted at all to say that Horton would be the slam dunk preference of GM's. Even if he doesn't get better at all - he's earning his $4M contract IMO. Olesz has to take a MAJOR step up to come anywhere close to earning his $3.1M.

I just find it odd that you find Horton's .75 pts/game career to be a "2nd liner", while Olesz is barely half of that but he's "has shown flashes of being the first line player the Panthers need". Both guys are basically the same age, and have faced injury issues (granted that Olesz's have been worse). Not that polls are the end all be-all - but I bet that 95+% of the posters on this site would take Horton over Olesz factoring in their contracts.

Edit: And don't get me wrong - I like Olesz! I keep hoping he'll break out into the player I thought he'd be (25+g, 25+a while playing a great 2 way game), but he hasn't done that for more than about 5-10 games at a time.

1. Umm, no they can't. There is something called a salary cap. Pittsburgh has salary coming off the books; all of which is going to Malkin's raise that he gets next year. Simply put, you cannot have $39 million committed to 4 forwards (Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, Staal/Horton); 2 defenceman (Gonchar & Orpik); and 1 goaltender (Fleury). It just doesn't work when it comes to filling out the rest of the roster.

2. Campbell & Horton are completely separate issues. He has to go in the near future regardless becuase of the raises that their young players are going to get. When you've got Toews, Kane, Ladd, Bolland, Versteeg, Barker & Keith all coming up for new contracts within a year; commiting $4million to a 2nd-line player is the last thing you wanna do, specially when you've got Beach coming through the system.

3. $4m is about what you'd expect to pay for a 60 point player as a UFA. That being said, there aren't a lot of teams that are in a position to add that kind of player.

4. Horton has been consistent in the .75ppg pace and hasn't shown signs of improving or having the high end skill. Olesz showed briefly that he's got the high end offensive skill; and combined with the lower salary it makes him more attractive for some teams.

We can agree to disagree on the Pens & Hawks salary cap situations.

I think we are looking at "consistent" in a different manner. You're looking at it over a season, and I'm looking at it on a game-to-game basis. If Horton can increase his game to game intensity and avoid the extended stretches where he doesn't produce - he can be a hell of a lot more than a .75 ppg player. Olesz has to prove that he can produce at any scoring line level before he would have any sort of trade value.

My best example - Todd Bertuzzi on the Isle. His first years in the league - for the Isle games I watched - Bert would be a force 1 game in 5, invisible the other 4, and he was a 20g, 20a guy. He gets to VAN, and somehow brings "it" every game, and turns into one of the best players in the league. You saw a ton of examples of what he could become, but the difference between being a marginal scoring linen player and a force was consistent game to game effort. I see a similiar case with Horton, but not with Olesz yet.

My litmus test:
Guys in the same age bracket making equivelant money where I'd would rather have Horton (just off the top of my head): Michalek, Lupul, Sharp, Bouchard, Erat.

Guys in the same age bracket making equivelant money where I'd would rather have Olesz (just off the top of my head): None

Just for kicks - I'll post a poll on the Poll forum and see what everyone else thinks.

A poll really wouldn't tell you much.... most fans would consider them the same salary and say they prefer Horton; but they fail to understand teh dynamics of the salary cap.

You can go out and get a guy who will play the same role as Horton for half his price (Bertuzzi), and only be expected to put up 10-15 less points. With Olesz, you can't get anyone who has the potential to get his game together as much as he does for $3m. Most teams can take a risk on a player for $3.1m, not for $4million. You'd have to look at specific teams to judge who'd be more valuable among the teams who could afford to bring them on.

Not sure what Florida's needs are, but would you have any interest in Tom Gilbert for Horton?

As an Oilers fan, I'd like to see both Horton and Olesz in the copper and blue. I don't really make proposals, so 'm not going to even try, so maybe some Panthers fans can give an estimate about what it would take.

As a Panther fan, I do this in a heartbeat. I like Olesz more than I like Horton simply because when Olesz isn't hurt, he plays a great 2 way game. He has shown that he has great speed and hands and I think if he can stay healthy,he will be a great all around player.

So Panthers get Campbell, Versteeg and a 1st and lose Horton and Olesz

Then they turn around and trade JBo and Anderson and get Briere/Lupul,Parent,and JVR

sign a backup goalie and call it a day.

either

Stillman-Briere-Frolik or Booth-Weiss-Lupul
Booth-Weiss-Repik Stillman-Kreps-Frolik
JVR-Kreps-Versteeg JVR-Campbell-Versteeg
Stewart-Campbell- Tarnasky Tarnasky-Matthias-Repik

Ballard-Campbell Ballard-Campbell
Allen-McCabe Allen-McCabe
Parent-Eminger/Skrats/Ellerby/Garrison Parent-Skrats/Eminger/Ellerby/G

Vokoun
????

Hell no to Campbell coming here. Brian Campbell is definitely not worth 7 million.
Especially when there are 7 more years to his contract.

Your lines are terrible, sorry.

And no, those trades won't work, I'm not going to do the math, but adding Briere and Campbell's contracts takes up like 15 mil in space alone. Pretty sure that with Booth and Ballard's raises, along with Weiss, Allen, and Vokoun's contracts we're above the cap with everyone else.

If you can get someone to put up 50 points for $2M - why not add 2-3 guys like that and not be worried about your offensive production? Maybe because those guys don't grow on trees and it's a huge risking counting on the Nolan's & Bertuzzis?

I just can't see how it's a more of a "risk" to pay Horton $4M when you know you'll very likely get at least 60 points that it is to pay Olesz $3.1M and likely get 20-40 points. Sure RO my break out and become a 50 point guy - but that's anything but a sure thing?

IMO, the odds that Olesz becomes a 50 point player are about the same as Horton becoming an 80 point player.

Laus - my thought process was that the Hawks would likely be eating a couple million of bad cap hit (Olesz), which would offset some of Campbell's bad contract. Campbell is a good player who can replace some of J-Bo's minutes, and would look great with Allen next year. Versteeg would likely replace Horton's offensive production, and with more PP time could pick it up some more as well. An extra 1st is an extra 1st. It would just allow the Panthers to stay competitive and still grow for the future.

What else would you think it would take (or if that's a no-go right from the start) to get that type of deal done?

Why are my lines terrible?? Booth is a 30 goal scorer,best forward the Panthers have,works his tail off every game,every shift, so he definately deserves top line minutes. Weiss was our best center and point producer, works well with Booth so he is our #1 center and I'll say Lupul instead of Briere, less money,and he can be the top right winger to complete that line.

Frolik and Repik are in the lineup, I put Frolik on the 2nd line because he had 20 goals,and like Booth,works his tail off night in and night out and proved he can handle 1st line or 2nd line ice time. I've rarely seen JVR and Versteeg play,so they went to 3rd line, if you think they deserve better, please elaborate. Matthias and Repik on the 4th line, work them into the lineup and let them get NHL experience. Of coarse I think they are both 2nd line players but for now,they can do 4th line unless they impress and surpass the other players like Frolik did last year.

Campbell and Ballard are the top pairing dmen. Never Seen Parent play,so let him earn a spot. McCabe,Allen and Eminger are on the team already and Eminger seemed to find a little stride at the end of the season. Re-sign Skrats and then have Parent,Ellerby and Garrison fight for last spot.

Andy will be gone, so we can go after a guy like Nitty, 1m a year and see how he does backing up Vokoun.

Why does Ballard get raise???? He just signed 6 year contract and Booth gets a new contract but that's it.

Again, I haven't looked at contracts, cap space or any of those numbers.. It was honestly a fantasy post because the Panthers would have to do both trades, Philly and Chicago and what are the chances of that happening?

Don't have time to go through everything, but, it was explained that Ballard is getting a raise over what he made last year. His new contract doesn't start until next season. He was at 2 something and is getting a raise to I believe 4 something. Thus, there's more cap space being taken by him next season than there was this season.

Again, it was a fantasy trade. You are correct with Ballard's raise. I was not aware of that but I am sure he does get a raise,and well deserved.

So we lose via trade:
Horton - 4mil -ish
JBO 6.5-7 mil
Anderson 1-3 mil
Olesz 3.2mil -ish

We gain via trade: Don't know salaries of these players
Versteeg ??
JVR ??
Parent ??
Campbell 6-7 mil
1st rounder

There's no way to nip and tuck the roster to make it all fit? I mean hypothetically speaking..

We also lost or could lose due to UFA
Zednik
Dvorak
Pelt

and could trade for draft picks to free up more cap space.
Mclean
Eminger -wouldn't mind keeping him,because he is a 1st rounder and could show promise with the team, but IF,IF these trades were to happen, we'd be getting Campbell and Parent on the backend,and I really think Skrats needs a new contract.

Allen,Ballard,McCabe,Skrats,Campbell,Parent and Ellerby/Garrison as 7th Dman,call up.

also, although it's a mock trade proposal (combination of two separate proposals) How would you change the proposal to make it work?