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-   -   Value of: Alex Semin (with conditions) (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=646479)

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 01:08 PM

Alex Semin (with conditions)
 
Caps fans have been reluctantly discussing the possibility of Semin being moved this offseason. Some Caps fans are very much opposed to this idea (hi Alex28), but some feel it may be necessary as a vehicle for diversifying our assets and dumping salary.

So I am curious to hear what people think their teams (or other teams) would be willing to offer for a young point per game goal-scorer like Semin.

But here are the two caveats:

#1: Assume for the sake of this thread that any deal for Semin will involve the team that takes Semin also taking either Chris Clark (1 year left at $2.633m) or Brian Pothier (1 year left at $2.5m) back as well. Semin makes $4.6m so, when added with the salary dump, that's roughly $7.2m in salary coming your way.

#2: The Caps will NOT take back your bad contracts. The Caps must emerge from the trade with considerable added cap space. Since $7.2m is going out, a good bit less than that has to be coming back to Washington.

Given those criteria, can anyone come up with anything? Two-way deal? Three-way deal? If it helps, the Caps are willing to move any of their 2009 picks as well as the rights to some interesting RFAs (Shaone Morrisonn, Eric Fehr) to help facilitate a deal if needed.

Just looking for some creative ideas that aren't totally absurd.

Barney Gumble 05-29-2009 01:23 PM

Any suggestions for the type of player(s) the Caps would be expecting in return?

Andrew 05-29-2009 01:25 PM

Rugged, physical, experienced top 4 defenders.

Sneekypete 05-29-2009 01:39 PM

So Clark , Pothier and Semin for Brendan Witt plus a 2nd
That clears about 6 million in cap from the caps and gives Bailey a studd to play alongside.
It only costs the Isles just over 5 million in cap space for 1 year to secure a sick talent. The only negative for Semin is he slaps like a 3 year old.

Drake1588 05-29-2009 01:44 PM

I can't for the life of me imagine why McPhee would dilute the value of his asset by saddling a salary dump with it. If he trades Semin, it would be for maximum value. So lumping in poor contracts like Nylander, Theodore, Clark or Pothier is not something I expect to see.

Note also, a correction: Chris Clark has two more years on his contract, not one.

Peter Griffin 05-29-2009 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew (Post 19729197)
Rugged, physical, experienced top 4 defenders.

Something to Vancouver based around Kevin Bieksa?

Ollie Queen 05-29-2009 01:46 PM

If JMFJ is actually going to be moved, why not Semin + Clarke for JMFJ (+)?

Semin would fit in with LA and Clarke is a good veteran leader for the young guys there for the year left on his contract. JJ and Green on the Caps blue line would be a heck of a starting point with Ovie and Backstrom up front. The Caps core becomes Ovie, Backstrom, Green, Johnson, Varlamov, no?

Dirtbags 05-29-2009 01:51 PM

to wash - little, valabik
to atlanta - semin, pothier

seanlinden 05-29-2009 01:55 PM

Kubina + 2nd Round Pick + Tlusty

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake1588 (Post 19729390)
I can't for the life of me imagine why McPhee would dilute the value of his asset by saddling a salary dump with it. If he trades Semin, it would be for maximum value. So lumping in poor contracts like Nylander, Theodore, Clark or Pothier is not something I expect to see.

Note also, a correction: Chris Clark has two more years on his contract, not one.

And I can't for the life of me imagine why someone would think trading Semin in a 1-for-1 deal to get a more expensive player makes a lick of sense. Based on your posts on our board, we have to agree to disagree. The concept of "maximizing value" is rendered largely meaningless when you have no cap room to fill your roster with competent players.

lefty2time* 05-29-2009 01:56 PM

a deal centered around Kevin Bieksa maybe?

also...if the Caps want a top6er....with a SMALL CAP HIT..maybe they could take Wellwood. He's soft..and not a great skater, kinda fat too, but he definitely has skills and could probably he had as a throw in if they need to fill a top6 spot.

Bieksa is tough as nails, he hits, he fights, he's better than 'top 4' he's probably a no3 guy. Still is relatively pretty young. Is a 3.75 cap hi.

Clark + Semin for Bieksa +

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barney Gumble (Post 19729165)
Any suggestions for the type of player(s) the Caps would be expecting in return?

We have multiple needs, at least one of which would need to be filled by someone on a not-ugly contract:

(1) Physical top-4 defensemen

(2) 2nd line center who can skate

(3) Productive top-6 RW. Bonus points if its someone who can score some ugly goals.

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sneekypete (Post 19729339)
So Clark , Pothier and Semin for Brendan Witt plus a 2nd
That clears about 6 million in cap from the caps and gives Bailey a studd to play alongside.
It only costs the Isles just over 5 million in cap space for 1 year to secure a sick talent. The only negative for Semin is he slaps like a 3 year old.

I think Witter sort of wore out his welcome in DC.

Your idea is interesting in that you're suggesting more cap relief for a lesser player. But I think the Caps really need to emerge with a better player than that.

dredeye 05-29-2009 02:03 PM

Maybe something based around White and Poni/Grabovski from Toronto. White broke out with a fury this year and I'd hate to move him but for the right pieces it would need to be done. White and Poni have one year left for a total of 3.055 in cap hit. White would be an RFA and Poni UFA. Don't know how that affects anything. Grabs is an RFA now but could be traded if he and Burke can't agree on terms. Do these guys interst you? It cuts the salary in half. My only concern with Semin is he seems to have a little trouble staying healthy through a season.

Sneekypete 05-29-2009 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA (Post 19729608)
I think Witter sort of wore out his welcome in DC.

Your idea is interesting in that you're suggesting more cap relief for a lesser player. But I think the Caps really need to emerge with a better player than that.

Caps do have multiple needs. With the savings in cap space a veteran talent like Knuble can be signed for around 3m per year and still have 2 million more in space from the prior proposed deal.
Knuble is exactley what the Caps need. Veteran can play every scenario and score some severely ugly goals.

BrooklynCapsFan 05-29-2009 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA (Post 19729519)
And I can't for the life of me imagine why someone would think trading Semin in a 1-for-1 deal to get a more expensive player makes a lick of sense. Based on your posts on our board, we have to agree to disagree. The concept of "maximizing value" is rendered largely meaningless when you have no cap room to fill your roster with competent players.

It doesn't have to be a more expensive player. There's gems out there signed to reasonable contracts. Weber, Regehr, Ballard, a King's young dman, Nick Schultz, Bieksa, Tyutin...any of those would improve the Caps and make a fine starting point for a deal.

Karl Hungus 05-29-2009 02:14 PM

How about:

Bieksa and Grabner and 2nd

or

O'Briend, Raymond and a 1st to really clear some room

We really need some top end talent like Semin so I wouldn't mind tinkering with a package as long as it doesn't touch Luongo or Hodgson.

If you kept Clark I'd reluctantly do:

Edler and a pick that wasn't a first

Drake1588 05-29-2009 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA (Post 19729519)
And I can't for the life of me imagine why someone would think trading Semin in a 1-for-1 deal to get a more expensive player makes a lick of sense. Based on your posts on our board, we have to agree to disagree. The concept of "maximizing value" is rendered largely meaningless when you have no cap room to fill your roster with competent players.

They need to trade him for a more expensive player? Just trade him for another very good young player making around that $4.5M range. He has enough value to command that kind of return.

If the Caps deal Semin with a dump, it's going to produce a significant drag on the return. Yet it won't free up so much space at ~$2.5 million to pick up a significant impact player to make up for the talent drain.

To free up enough room to make a huge impact, the dump would need to be one of Theodore or Nylander. This, of course, effectively destroys the return.

Pairing Semin and a dump just isn't going to work.

Joey McMoss 05-29-2009 02:40 PM

A swap of enforcers?

Stortini for Semin... :sarcasm:

Ollie Queen 05-29-2009 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OilGagner89 (Post 19730049)
A swap of enforcers?

Stortini for Semin... :sarcasm:


Only if you play Semin on the 4th line and he has 5 or more fights next season.

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake1588 (Post 19729761)
They need to trade him for a more expensive player? Just trade him for another very good young player making around that $4.5M range. He has enough value to command that kind of return.

If the Caps deal Semin with a dump, it's going to produce a significant drag on the return. Yet it won't free up so much space at ~$2.5 million to pick up a significant impact player to make up for the talent drain.

To free up enough room to make a huge impact, the dump would need to be one of Theodore or Nylander. This, of course, effectively destroys the return.

Pairing Semin and a dump just isn't going to work.

I was referring to your Thornton idea re: more expensive player. But I see no point in trading him for one very good young player of similar caliber and salary. Our entire issue right now is that we want to make 1-2 defensive upgrades (including at least one significant one) and we have two top-6 forward spots to fill with nobody to fill them. And we have only $10.5m in cap space (assuming cap stability) with at least 7 roster spots to solidify. All of that adds up to no flexibility. Trading Semin for, say, Brett Burns certainly helps our defense, but it just makes our 2nd line situation that much worse. Now we don't have any 2nd line players, and we're still dealing with $10.5m in cap space and 7 roster spots to fill. That doesn't help us appreciably.

I maintain that the way to leverage Semin best is to get back multiple contributing parts + cap relief. That means we have fewer spots to fill, and more space to fill them. And trading Semin for cap space absolutely will work out if the right deal is done. I've spelled it out move by move on our board based on the three-way deal with Edmonton and Colorado that was discussed here for the last couple days.

To EDM:
Alex Semin

To WAS
Milan Hejduk
Andrew Cogliano
Jordan Eberle

To COL
#10 overall pick
Michael Neuvirth
Chris Clark

One move, we free up $2.5m in cap space and add a 2nd line center and RW. Then you take the cap space and a few more bucks and sign Mike Knuble. Now you've got your 1st line RW too. All for Semin and $200-500k of cap space. If you think standing pat is better value, fair enough. Agree to disagree. But how does this "not work"? Now, we have all our top-9 forwards settled, and we still have $10m in cap space to improve the defense.

In this thread, I'm just curious if there's a better deal out there based on my premise of how a deal should get done. If you'd like to start your own thread to see which teams are willing to send us their #1 or #2 player assets for Semin, go ahead.

Ollie Queen 05-29-2009 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapsWolverinesUSA (Post 19730075)
I was referring to your Thornton idea re: more expensive player. But I see no point in trading him for one very good young player of similar caliber and salary. Our entire issue right now is that we want to make 1-2 defensive upgrades (including at least one significant one) and we have two top-6 forward spots to fill with nobody to fill them. And we have only $10.5m in cap space (assuming cap stability) with at least 7 roster spots to solidify. All of that adds up to no flexibility. Trading Semin for, say, Shea Weber certainly helps our defense, but it just makes our 2nd line situation that much worse. Now we don't have any 2nd line players, and we're still dealing with $10.5m in cap space and 7 roster spots to fill. That doesn't help us appreciably.

I maintain that the way to leverage Semin best is to get back multiple contributing parts + cap relief. That means we have fewer spots to fill, and more space to fill them. And trading Semin for cap space absolutely will work out if the right deal is done. I've spelled it out move by move on our board based on the three-way deal with Edmonton and Colorado that was discussed here for the last couple days.

To EDM:
Alex Semin

To WAS
Milan Hejduk
Andrew Cogliano
Jordan Eberle

To COL
#10 overall pick
Michael Neuvirth
Chris Clark

One move, we free up $2.5m in cap space and add a 2nd line center and RW. Then you take the cap space and a few more bucks and sign Mike Knuble. Now you've got your 1st line RW too. All for Semin and $200-500k of cap space. If you think standing pat is better value, fair enough. Agree to disagree. But how does this "not work"? Now, we have all our top-9 forwards settled, and we still have $10m in cap space to improve the defense.

In this thread, I'm just curious if there's a better deal out there based on my premise of how a deal should get done. If you'd like to start your own thread to see which teams are willing to send us their #1 or #2 player assets for Semin, go ahead.



I do not think Semin can land Cogliano AND Eberle.

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kovalchkin71 (Post 19730094)
I do not think Semin can land Cogliano AND Eberle.

Edmonton fans were all over it in the other thread. In fact, the consensus was that the Caps took the short end of this deal. I didn't even come up with the Oil portion of the proposal. I merely copied it from an Oilers fan.

And I really don't know why you'd think that a point per game player who has 40-goal scoring ability is not worth that package. Of course, note that EDM also gives up #10 overall.

CapsWolverinesUSA 05-29-2009 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karl Hungus (Post 19729721)
How about:

Bieksa and Grabner and 2nd

or

O'Briend, Raymond and a 1st to really clear some room

We really need some top end talent like Semin so I wouldn't mind tinkering with a package as long as it doesn't touch Luongo or Hodgson.

If you kept Clark I'd reluctantly do:

Edler and a pick that wasn't a first

I think the Bieksa + Grabner + 2nd deal is a really interesting one. I like Bieksa, and he's a player we could really use. We free up $3.5m in cap space in the process and deepen our prospect pool.

Not bad. Obviously, most Caps fans will disagree with me though!

daethfromabove1979 05-29-2009 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kovalchkin71 (Post 19730094)
I do not think Semin can land Cogliano AND Eberle.

umm edmonton would be absolutely crazy not to do that


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