Capitals 2009 draft preview
 

The Capitals hold the No. 24 pick in the draft.

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Is Carter Ashton really that good? 50 points in 70 games in the W is just not impressive.

It would be the McPhee draft pick trifecta: WHLer, size & NHL bloodlines.

Part of the production issue with Ashton it seems is that he was demoted at one point in the season and played with a couple of grinders that didn't ideally compliment his game. As a result, he had just 16 points (9+7) in his last 31 regular season games. He did still manage to lead Lethbridge in goals thanks to his torrid start but you wonder about his ability to create and manufacture offense on his own. Then again, if those question marks aren't there then he's a guy that would go ten picks (or more) earlier.

The Caps have the complimentary offensive talent that would suit his game but I wonder if that current limitation of sorts would necessarily make for the most appealing option at 24 in what looks to be a fairly solid draft.

:facepalm:

I think he can be if he wants to. He has all the physical attributes to be the prototypical Power foward with his size (6'3 ish) and has an improving offensive game. Another year in the W should be good for him, and allow him to break out offensively, if he develops the right way. He is a good prospect but for some reason i feel a Eric Fehr turnout. But who knows with mid 1st rounders

I'd love the Caps to find a legit powerforward, I'm just nervous based on McPhee's history of bombing when he goes for size.

O'Reilly for me.

If a guy can't create offense on his own in junior, what does that say about his ability to contribute in the NHL? I'm not saying he's got no chance, but it seems very risky for a 1st round pick.

Is it still a risk if a weakness can be masked and minimized? It's not like he'd have to carry a line in DC in the coming years unless some drastic changes are made up front. Judging a guy's NHL potential just based on stats alone is a pretty faulty endeavor. Context matters, as does the inexact science of projecting a player's skill set to the NHL level.

Players that are that big, can skate as well as he does and has his finishing ability are going to be highly valued. Maybe not as much as in the old NHL but I wouldn't say he's as big of a risk overall as some in that range. It's a solid draft but it's not quite 2003-esque...and even then not every player panned out. His current baseline talent should allow him to at least be a checking line player. That's more than could be said for some in the back-end of the first potentially. There are question marks for pretty much every prospect once they're placed under the microscope. It's a matter of what can be minimized, overcome and developed.

In Ashton's case one could argue that had he stayed in a more prominent role his production would have just masked some of these underlying area (perhaps not upon closer scrutiny but merely stats-based judgments). Instead you get a down second half and the potential for a team to get a player that could have potentially gone much higher had his season finished up differently.

Unless they're heads over heels for O'Reilly, they should trade down if he's their guy. He should still be there a handful of spots later--if not more--unless he's really climbed up teams draft charts from the interview process.

there are 4 players i really covet at this position.

Leblanc, Palmeri, Kreider and O'Reilly.

there's a good chance that Leblanc is getting snatched up by Montreal, should they retain their pick. I also see Palmeri maybe going 1 or 2 picks before the 24th as well.

i'm not sold on Aston, saw him in the playoffs against Saskatoon and he looked pretty disinterested to say the least.

In addition to those four Holland, Morin, Ferraro and to a lesser extent Werek all seem like appealing options at 24. The depth in the draft leads to not really casting that small of a net on potential appealing players at 24...aside from whatever happens from picks 1-23.

Werek could mature into a bit of power forward and he already has the hands and head for the game to suggest scoring-line potential. He played for a pretty bad CHL team in Kingston so there could be a bit of a Green-like effect there.

Kreider's a real wild card. I waffle on him given the competition he played against. Seems to have all of the tools but you never know until he's forced to put it all together at higher levels.

Carl Klingberg is my pick. He already has an NHL body, can skate well, and isn't afraid to crash the net. Would bring some toughness with the ability to finish.

Not to mention most Swedes play the game so smartly, too.

Im on the Leblanc bandwagon.

I'm throwing my support behind Kreider, if he's available at #24. The competition thing is definitely an issue, but here's two things you can't teach: good size and elite speed. It's not a common combination, and at 6'2, 200+, with "explosive speed and acceleration" along with "exceptional" short-distance speed, Kreider's got them both.

Assuming no one slips 10+ spots, it's Leblanc, Kreider, Palmieri, Holland, De Haan, and Ferraro/O'Reilly for me, in that order.

anyone open to trading the pick?

O'Reilly sounds like the perfect guy we need for the post season.

Absolutely. For a wide variety of returns.