HFBoards

HFBoards (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/index.php)
-   San Jose Sharks (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=43)
-   -   Speculation: Pavelski's contract equivalent ? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=752348)

Joe T Choker 03-19-2010 01:20 PM

Pavelski's contract equivalent ?
 
Kesler signs 6 year - 30 million dollar contract

Quote:

Ryan Kesler's contract is at six years at about $29.5 million. It's $4.25 million for the first two years, then $5.25 million for four

one2gamble 03-19-2010 01:28 PM

hes set to outpace Pavs by a pretty good margin, hes up about 20 points right now, though pavs has a lot less games played. I am really not sure hes the correct equiv. I also think the Nucks overpaid in order to lock him up long term.

6 Joe Pavelski SJS C 55 21 24 45
3 Ryan Kesler VAN C 71 21 45 66

SJeasy 03-19-2010 01:32 PM

Look to the Weiss and Roy contracts.

one2gamble 03-19-2010 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJeasy (Post 24598267)
Look to the Weiss and Roy contracts.



I do like Weiss though and think his contract is fair, though Pavs will get more money, probably closer to Roy

Flicktron 03-19-2010 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by one2gamble (Post 24598174)
hes set to outpace Pavs by a pretty good margin, hes up about 20 points right now, though pavs has a lot less games played. I am really not sure hes the correct equiv. I also think the Nucks overpaid in order to lock him up long term.

6 Joe Pavelski SJS C 55 21 24 45
3 Ryan Kesler VAN C 71 21 45 66

I really think they got a great deal for him, long-term.

He does just about everything (except score a point a game).

SideRivals76* 03-19-2010 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flicktron (Post 24598507)
I really think they got a great deal for him, long-term.

He does just about everything (except score a point a game).

Well he does have 66 points in 71 games. :D

TheDanceOfMaternity 03-19-2010 01:47 PM

Pavs should probably get about 4 if he signs long term.

Hopefully not more than that. Michalek's season where he scored 68 points and got 4.3 for 6 years was better than anything Pavs has done.

SJeasy 03-19-2010 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by one2gamble (Post 24598360)
I do like Weiss though and think his contract is fair, though Pavs will get more money, probably closer to Roy

Pavs has production around Weiss and Roy, but TOI around Kesler. IMO, the production will trump, meaning a lower salary. Roy is more similar to the way Pavelski is used than Weiss. It is only this year that Weiss is getting his minutes increased and getting substantial use on PK.

one2gamble 03-19-2010 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJeasy (Post 24598706)
Pavs has production around Weiss and Roy, but TOI around Kesler. IMO, the production will trump, meaning a lower salary. Roy is more similar to the way Pavelski is used than Weiss. It is only this year that Weiss is getting his minutes increased and getting substantial use on PK.

Weiss was also given more of a shot to succeed this year.

Im iffy on Pavs production numbers since his wingers are so hit and miss. They remind me of Pattys from a few seasons ago (not that pavs has pattys talent).

Knowing DW, he signs a 4 year 3.8-4.3 million dollar deal. If I am pavs I am looking for a 2 year 3.5 and hope I can cash in afterwards on a longer term deal.

JawandaPuck 03-19-2010 02:12 PM

Quote:

Ryan Kesler's contract is at six years at about $29.5 million. It's $4.25 million for the first two years, then $5.25 million for four
Long-term deals with players in their mid twenties (eg, Pavelski) are covering traditionally the most productive years of their career, leaving the player with less leverage when it expires in his thirties. It's the opposite when it comes to older players, ie, in their early thirties (eg, Marleau).

So if you break Kesler's (who is also in his mid twenties) contract down, it's two contracts in one:

2 yrs @ $4.25M
4 yrs @ $5.25M

Pavelski, if he was to sign a two or three year deal, would likely average between $3 to 3.5M. If his was to be a six year deal, then he would also get two contracts in one, example:

first 3 yrs @ $3.25M
next 3 yrs @ $4.25M

I'll bet he sticks to a two to three year term in an attempt to show the team he's worth more than ~$4.25M in his late twenties. I'm sure DW will be fine with that since it will keep the cap hit down.

In the case of Kesler, he's having a career year after coming off a Selke nomination. No time like the present then to cash in.

DarrylshutzSydor 03-19-2010 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JawandaPuck (Post 24599100)
Long-term deals with players in their mid twenties (eg, Pavelski) are covering traditionally the most productive years of their career, leaving the player with less leverage when it expires in his thirties. It's the opposite when it comes to older players, ie, in their early thirties (eg, Marleau).

So if you break Kesler's (who is also in his mid twenties) contract down, it's two contracts in one:

2 yrs @ $4.25M
4 yrs @ $5.25M

Pavelski, if he was to sign a two or three year deal, would likely average between $3 to 3.5M. If his was to be a six year deal, then he would also get two contracts in one, example:

first 3 yrs @ $3.25M
next 3 yrs @ $4.25M

I'll bet he sticks to a two to three year term in an attempt to show the team he's worth more than ~$4.25M in his late twenties. I'm sure DW will be fine with that since it will keep the cap hit down.

In the case of Kesler, he's having a career year after coming off a Selke nomination. No time like the present then to cash in.

I pretty much agree......3.5 million each for 3 seasons.

JawandaPuck 03-19-2010 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJeasy (Post 24598267)
Look to the Weiss and Roy contracts.

Actually, one does not have to go any further than SJ -- just look at the Ryane Clowe re-signing last season.

Ronaldo 03-19-2010 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by one2gamble (Post 24598174)
hes set to outpace Pavs by a pretty good margin, hes up about 20 points right now, though pavs has a lot less games played. I am really not sure hes the correct equiv. I also think the Nucks overpaid in order to lock him up long term.

6 Joe Pavelski SJS C 55 21 24 45
3 Ryan Kesler VAN C 71 21 45 66

Sorry to intrude but I disagree,Kesler is the heart and soul of the Canucks he'll do anything to win,he's arguably the best two-way forward in the game,and is scoring at a near PPG pace.

Kitten Mittons 03-19-2010 06:52 PM

Pavelski doesn't deserve Kesler money. He shouldn't be making more than $4.25. I would be extremely happy if Doug can pull off $3.5mil

SJeasy 03-19-2010 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JawandaPuck (Post 24600111)
Actually, one does not have to go any further than SJ -- just look at the Ryane Clowe re-signing last season.

Do you know that contracts are done by comparables, even those not submitted to arbitration?

Clowe is a power forward type. He would be compared to Bernier and Backes on one end and Franzen on the other. Pavs is a second line (smallish) center. There are several of us here like O2G, Matt Trick, et al who use players who are very likely to be brought up in negotiation. Transcripts of arbitrations have been available as well as reports of negotiations to see exactly how it is done. It was really fun to see that the group of us picked off some guys who were exactly the guys used in those negotiations.

Thepainter 03-19-2010 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davidhye (Post 24600210)
Pavelski doesn't deserve Kesler money. He shouldn't be making more than $4.25. I would be extremely happy if Doug can pull off $3.5mil

$3.5mil would be great. That greedy ******* Pavs always wants $5mil+ in NHL10 :rant::rant::rant:

sjshark91 03-19-2010 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thepainter (Post 24600602)
$3.5mil would be great. That greedy ******* Pavs always wants $5mil+ in NHL10 :rant::rant::rant:

Joe scores more goals than Heatley in NHL 10 also....

JawandaPuck 03-19-2010 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJeasy (Post 24600570)
Do you know that contracts are done by comparables, even those not submitted to arbitration?

Clowe is a power forward type. He would be compared to Bernier and Backes on one end and Franzen on the other. Pavs is a second line (smallish) center. There are several of us here like O2G, Matt Trick, et al who use players who are very likely to be brought up in negotiation. Transcripts of arbitrations have been available as well as reports of negotiations to see exactly how it is done. It was really fun to see that the group of us picked off some guys who were exactly the guys used in those negotiations.

Arbitration transcripts notwithstanding, power forward or small center are simply sub categories. For top six forwards, the bottom line comparable is offensive production. Next is the level of free agency (ie, RFA, UFA), after that could be age. All other attributes (power forward, small center, playmaking center, sniper, etc) just help define the final number that much more but only if a properly comparable player can be found (which by now one usually can be found).

To illustrate this point, I'll use an extreme example: if a UFA "small center" scored 120 points the season of his pending free agency, his agent will not be using the next smallish forward as his comparable if he can only find one that was an RFA, who was scoring at a 60 point pace when he signed his deal. The agent will attempt to use whomever has scored 120 points as his comparable, even if that player is a power forward.

Tw1ster 03-19-2010 08:15 PM

I hope to God we get Pavelski locked up. He's my second favorite Shark next to Patty. Excellent all around player

Le Rosbeef 03-20-2010 05:08 AM

My only concern is RFA. I think someone would love to offer sheet Pavs and if that happens, we've got problems.

A reasonable all around deal IMO is $4m per. He's one of the better 2nd line centres (for our team needs) out there but doesn't (and probably won't) ever produce like a top line centre so I can't see it being for much more.

4 years, $16m would be more than fair IMO, especially if that takes him to UFA status (I have no idea, would it?) which will raise his negotiation position too.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:00 PM.

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com, A property of CraveOnline, a division of AtomicOnline LLC ©2009 CraveOnline Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved.