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-   -   Speculation: Which Big Salaried Forward Goes? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=771724)

seanlinden 05-03-2010 01:53 AM

Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?
 
With Marleau's career year, he's likely going to be due for a raise or somewhere around his current salary. Combined with the regular season and playoffs that Joe Pavelski and Devin Setoguchi have had, they'll both be looking at new contracts likely over $3million.

Combined with Heatley at $7.5, Thornton at $7.2, and Clowe at $3.625, it doesn't seem practical to retain all 6 without going bare minimum in goal and on the blueline (which when you factor in diminishing returns of having all that offensive firepower, just doesn't make sense. So, simple question, who is the least valuable to the team / under the assumption that one of them has to go, who would you like it to be?

edit: Also realize that a lot depends on what it'll cost to sign the free agents and their potential returns... obviously the return for Marleau's rights would be something like a mid-round pick whereas the returns for the other players are really up in the air. As for contracts, I think $6million for Marleau (hometown discount), $3.75 for Pavelski and $3.25 for Setoguchi would be reasonable estimates to work off of.

kwhyte 05-03-2010 02:06 AM

I don't think anyone has to go, but under the assumption that someone must I chose Heatley. He's a great player, but I think his salary is out of line with his importance to the team. That's assuming the UFA/RFAs are willing to sign for reasonable amounts - if Marleau wants 8 million or Seto wants 5 or something then clearly they go. I'm sure Marleau will be the popular pick after his disappointing playoffs, but I think he contributes more than Heatley and will sign for a lot less.

gonegonegone* 05-03-2010 02:10 AM

It has to be marleau pure and simple. He's UFAing, meaning we get his contract off our books. He has to take a MASSIVE htd to stay, because pavs is getting a huge raise and same with seto. Clowe has showed up huge, Heater might or might not have an NTC but it would look really bad for us if we tossed him after just one year. He's also been solid in the playoffs, more than a PPG despite playing with a gimp leg. Two GWGs were assisted by him too, so he's pretty clutch. JT has an NTC.

Marleau's awesome but facts are facts. His playoff performance is somewhat underwhelming, for 6.6 mil he needs to be better. He's also likely due for a raise next year by some desperate team or by LA. I can't see him going down to 5mil which is what he would need to be for a resign.

dumpnchase 05-03-2010 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwhyte (Post 25599326)
I don't think anyone has to go, but under the assumption that someone must I chose Heatley. He's a great player, but I think his salary is out of line with his importance to the team. That's assuming the UFA/RFAs are willing to sign for reasonable amounts - if Marleau wants 8 million or Seto wants 5 or something then clearly they go. I'm sure Marleau will be the popular pick after his disappointing playoffs, but I think he contributes more than Heatley and will sign for a lot less.

Heatley works his ass off where as Marleau has been floating since he was picked for the Olympic team. Marleau's target this year was to be on the Olympics team, as soon as he was named to that team his played started falling off. He just doesn't try hard enough all the time. Heatley has been working hard even when he isn't scoring goals, his awesome playmaking abilities have been a pleasant surprise.

Dump Marleau (even without taking into account his playoff crappyness)

seanlinden 05-03-2010 02:22 AM

Must say that I'm surprised about the amount that Marleau is winning by. Considering that he likely knows that he won't score 43 again without Joe, and is a lifetime shark, at what cap number do you think Marleau has to go down to in order for the Sharks to want to move someone else (factoring in that everyone else gets a decent return in trade).

Oberursel 05-03-2010 03:44 AM

1) Keep all the big money forwards.
2) Keep Nabby.
3) Release those fans who lately clamored for new players, coaches, or Wilson.

Yes, rebuild their fan base with loyalists and Sharkies should be just fine next year.

gonegonegone* 05-03-2010 03:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfried (Post 25599391)
Must say that I'm surprised about the amount that Marleau is winning by. Considering that he likely knows that he won't score 43 again without Joe, and is a lifetime shark, at what cap number do you think Marleau has to go down to in order for the Sharks to want to move someone else (factoring in that everyone else gets a decent return in trade).

long term deal at 5 mil per is probably what you are looking at. a savard-like contract maybe? no way he takes less than that, and anything above 5.5 means he has to walk. The problem is that lots of other teams will love his regular season heroics and will pay him probably up to 7 mil for his services. a really dumb and desperate GM will give him 7.5.

skilks 05-03-2010 04:03 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Thornton have a NTC? Why does everyone suggest his name on the block?

Tealblood 05-03-2010 04:33 AM

Thornton makes everyone around him more dangerous, and when he's "on" he's a tough guy to play against.

Marleau has speed, and scores a lot in the regular season. But so far hasn't done much in the playoffs.

Heater doesn't have marleau's speed, but works his tail off along the boards and when he's not scoring he can also pass, making it so the top line does not solely have to rely on joe for playmaking. He may not have a ton of goals yet, but he's got the history of at least pushing his team to the SCF.(whereas marleau has done nothing since the lockout)

Maybe marleau did have something going on in the first round physically, and perhaps he gets hot. But I think it comes down to heater vs marleau and heater wins it right now. We'll miss his speed but speed can be replaced through FA or whatever for a ton cheaper than 6m. Heater has that killer shot that just goes so well with executing thornton's passes. It's just a matter of time before those two start connecting.

Le Rosbeef 05-03-2010 04:38 AM

It begs the question, why the heck we are running polls about the offseason when we're 2-0 up in the 2nd round?!...

But to play along, I'd say we need to keep Marleau - purely from an asset perspective. Trade and you get something back - let them walk in UFA and it's a 'wasted asset'.

I think we need to sit tight and see where this playoff series goes first. Sure, Pavs is garnering a nice pay rise right now but at the same time, Marleau's offseason is causing his negotiation position to plummet. Regular season means little if you perform a disappearing act in the postseason.

If this team goes to the Stanley cup finals, I don't think much tweaking will be done at all to our forward corps.

TrappedInFullerton 05-03-2010 04:40 AM

****ing Heatley's damn contract... such an albatross...

Le Rosbeef 05-03-2010 04:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrappedInFullerton (Post 25599783)
****ing Heatley's damn contract... such an albatross...

Yeah. Damn Heatley and his point-per-game season and 8 points in his last 4 playoff games. I can't believe that top line wing role isn't being given to Jed Ortmeyer.

Seriously, think about it.

:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead :shakehead:shakehead

sharkieftw 05-03-2010 05:37 AM

Keep in mind that next year it looks like Couture will be playing a top 6 role. Which leaves: Thorn, Patty, Heater, Seto, Pavs, Clowe vying for 5 spots.

Out of those players, I don't think Thornton or Heater can or will be moved. Sharks wanted Heatley, he was their guy. No way they are trading him. Pavs has to be resigned based upon past and current performance. Which leaves Patty, Seto and Clowe.

Out of those three players, Clowe has the most unique skill set and should be kept, leaving Patty and Seto. Most economical option is let Patty walk, resign Pavs/Seto. Thornton/Heatly resign to similar money with discount next year. Top 6 is locked in for a few years.

Le Rosbeef 05-03-2010 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkieftw (Post 25600959)
Keep in mind that next year it looks like Couture will be playing a top 6 role.

Based on what evidence, per se?

He has the ability to play there, yes. I'm not yet convinced he has locked down a top 6 spot, especially when he can give a '3rd line' a bit more scoring impetus and give us a good change up of personnel when needed.

sharkieftw 05-03-2010 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SharkyMcWoo (Post 25600968)
Based on what evidence, per se?

He has the ability to play there, yes. I'm not yet convinced he has locked down a top 6 spot, especially when he can give a '3rd line' a bit more scoring impetus and give us a good change up of personnel when needed.

Based upon his performance in the AHL and his performance in very limited NHL action. McClellan threw him out there today with his best players, I think that is a big vote of confidence.

Le Rosbeef 05-03-2010 05:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkieftw (Post 25600988)
Based upon his performance in the AHL and his performance in very limited NHL action. McClellan threw him out there today with his best players, I think that is a big vote of confidence.

Well I like your optimism but AHL performance won't guarantee a top line spot. I also think he started the game on the top line more because of Patty's deficiencies than his own gusto.

When all was said and done, Couture got 8:44 t.o.i, was a -1 and had 1 SOG. That doesn't yet convince me he's ready to surplant any of the other forwards who all had north of 20 (except Seto, at 17:25).

He's had a great start, yes. Let's not kill the kid with expectation just yet.

Slurms McKenzie 05-03-2010 06:06 AM

how come there's no "Pronger/Hossa" long term contract option on all our RFA/UFA?

Nabokov20 05-03-2010 06:35 AM

I wanna say Thornton but it's gonna be Marleau.

param 05-03-2010 07:40 AM

I have one very SIMPLE question:

Is it easier to replace a 35+ goal scoring winger with speed (Seto is the likely choice to fill that role anyways)?

or

Is it easier to replace the best playmaker in the last five years?

Marleau's an excellent forward, but just because he's been with San Jose for his entire career doesn't mean we need to cling onto his jock forever.

SJeasy 05-03-2010 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by param (Post 25601363)
I have one very SIMPLE question:

1. Is it easier to replace a 35+ goal scoring winger with speed (Seto is the likely choice to fill that role anyways)?

or

2. Is it easier to replace the best playmaker in the last five years?

3. Marleau's an excellent forward, but just because he's been with San Jose for his entire career doesn't mean we need to cling onto his jock forever.

1. How many of those are in the league? Have you checked the salaries and availability of those guys lately? Please.

2. Crosby? Datsyuk? Their playmaking seems to win cups. I call that tops.

3. My question to you and anyone else who wants to trade, unload, trade . . . How many teams have won the cup lately with outside talent for their top scorers in the playoffs?

The playoffs aren't over yet so some of this is premature. But, I want all of you to see who the top guys are on the team that wins and think long and hard about acquisition strategies for team composition for winning. I have looked at past years and winners and I see the strategies that are diametrically opposed to the paths proposed here.

I do think Patty is going to walk, but I also think that there will be a lot of Sharks fans that aren't terribly pleased with the results of the unsuccessful strategies employed by the Sharks to get the cup in five years. I think there will be a lot of excuses about this or that not quite being right when the reality is that they are poor excuses for the overarching strategy.

My take is that playing the grass is greener game and some other issues are going to turn into a Sisyphean effort that continually falls short.

ngmcs8203 05-03-2010 11:52 AM

It's either Patty or Nabby this summer. My vote is Nabby.

sharkbite3 05-03-2010 12:40 PM

Sorry Patty, voted for you.

Obsessed Sharks Fan 05-03-2010 12:41 PM

i think it's pavs time to go. we need to pick someone up who shows more heart and can really carry this team to where they want to be. :laugh:


Wait, so... say sharks win the cup and Blake happily retires. That money goes towards resigning one of Seto and Pavs. (pavs might command 4 - 4.5 at this point, wow... And I can't believe he's doing what he's doing now on a $1.6 mil salary). But how do we replace the blueline? From within? is there a guy in the baby sharks ready to step up? How's Petrecki looking these days? Still like a confused 'rook?

param 05-03-2010 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJeasy (Post 25601582)
1. How many of those are in the league? Have you checked the salaries and availability of those guys lately? Please.

2. Crosby? Datsyuk? Their playmaking seems to win cups. I call that tops.

3. My question to you and anyone else who wants to trade, unload, trade . . . How many teams have won the cup lately with outside talent for their top scorers in the playoffs?

The playoffs aren't over yet so some of this is premature. But, I want all of you to see who the top guys are on the team that wins and think long and hard about acquisition strategies for team composition for winning. I have looked at past years and winners and I see the strategies that are diametrically opposed to the paths proposed here.

I do think Patty is going to walk, but I also think that there will be a lot of Sharks fans that aren't terribly pleased with the results of the unsuccessful strategies employed by the Sharks to get the cup in five years. I think there will be a lot of excuses about this or that not quite being right when the reality is that they are poor excuses for the overarching strategy.

My take is that playing the grass is greener game and some other issues are going to turn into a Sisyphean effort that continually falls short.

You mean outside help as in free agency? So if we happen to sign someone who hasn't played on the Sharks a certain number of seasons, we won't be contenders that year?

And because Crosby and Datsyuk won the cup, that automatically bumps them ahead of Thornton?

Setoguchi (speedy winger) can become a consistent 30+ goal scorer, but we still need Marleau on the team because it's tough to find a speedy winger?

The reason I have so many questions is because I don't know what the point of your response is. Your argument isn't very clear to me.

dwood16 05-03-2010 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfried (Post 25599391)
Must say that I'm surprised about the amount that Marleau is winning by. Considering that he likely knows that he won't score 43 again without Joe, and is a lifetime shark, at what cap number do you think Marleau has to go down to in order for the Sharks to want to move someone else (factoring in that everyone else gets a decent return in trade).

His cap number would have to come down to about 3 dollars....and he would have to pay each sharks fan a few thousand bucks to watch him play in the playoffs.


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