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BaseballCoach 07-16-2010 12:38 PM

Value of Number 1 centremen
 
Mikko Koivu just signed an extension of his contract, that kicks in next July 1st, when he will be 28 years old, and that will pay him an average of $6.75M for the following 7 years.

Mikko has 255 points in 362 games life to date. That is an average of 58 points per season. His best year is 71 points.

Compare that contract with the Gomez contract and the Plekanec contract and you can easily conclude that the Habs are not that badly off cap-wise.

Gomez has 637 points in 784 games for an average of 67 points per season, and best season 84 points. He has a cap hit of a little more than Mikko Koivu, at $7.36M.

Plekanec has 254 points in 393 games, for an average of 53 points per season, and best season 70 points. He has a cap hit of substantially less than Mikko Koivu, at $5.00M per season.

Patrick Marleau, by the way, has 693 points in 953 games, for an average of 60 points per season, is only average defensively, and signed for a cap hit of $6.9M.


People have to really stop bit***ng about how overpaid our players supposedly are. We live in a league where guys past their ELC get very good money for consistent production, and especially if they are ALSO responsible defensively, which our two guys are.

overlords 07-16-2010 12:39 PM

I didn't pay attention to the fan reaction of mikko's contract, did they flip out? That contract is way too expensive.

InglewoodJack 07-16-2010 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by overlords (Post 26945594)
I didn't pay attention to the fan reaction of mikko's contract, did they flip out? That contract is way too expensive.

It was a "It's a bit steep, but he's really good, so we'll accept it"

Turboflex* 07-16-2010 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by overlords (Post 26945594)
That contract is way too expensive.

No it's not. There is a premium on top tier centres who can play 20-24 mins and dominate the ice, they are limited in supply, and if you lose yours you suddenly have a huge hole in your lineup.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with making sure these guys are wrapped up, and a 750k to 1mil overpayment is not a big deal, because the alternative is a lot worse.

overlords 07-16-2010 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turboflex (Post 26945716)
No it's not. There is a premium on top tier centres who can play 20-24 mins and dominate the ice, they are limited in supply, and if you lose yours you suddenly have a huge hole in your lineup.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with making sure these guys are wrapped up, and a 750k to 1mil overpayment is not a big deal, because the alternative is a lot worse.

Koivu isn't all that godly. He's good, but his numbers are painfully similar to pleks'. Like i said in another thread, just looking at stats is never enough, I understand koivu is a leader on his team and he's an important piece for their team, but that salary is just very steep.

LyricalLyricist 07-16-2010 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaseballCoach (Post 26945568)
Mikko Koivu just signed an extension of his contract, that kicks in next July 1st, when he will be 28 years old, and that will pay him an average of $6.75M for the following 7 years.

Mikko has 255 points in 362 games life to date. That is an average of 58 points per season. His best year is 71 points.

Compare that contract with the Gomez contract and the Plekanec contract and you can easily conclude that the Habs are not that badly off cap-wise.

Gomez has 637 points in 784 games for an average of 67 points per season, and best season 84 points. He has a cap hit of a little more than Mikko Koivu, at $7.36M.

Plekanec has 254 points in 393 games, for an average of 53 points per season, and best season 70 points. He has a cap hit of substantially less than Mikko Koivu, at $5.00M per season.

Patrick Marleau, by the way, has 693 points in 953 games, for an average of 60 points per season, is only average defensively, and signed for a cap hit of $6.9M.


People have to really stop bit***ng about how overpaid our players supposedly are. We live in a league where guys past their ELC get very good money for consistent production, and especially if they are ALSO responsible defensively, which our two guys are.

You can't count a career average in these cases. Contracts are based on what you did recently.

Recently, let's say last 3 years, which is a fair sample size to consider what they would be worth if they got a contract today.

Mikko Koivu: 53G 127A, 180Pts: 216 GP(0.833333 PPG)
Tomas Plekanec: 74G 106A 180Pts: 243GP(.740740 PPG)
Scott Gomez: 44G 133A 187Pts: 236GP(.792372 PPG)

Let's go even more recent, 2 years, which some would argue is a better sample size for a contract:

Mikko Koivu: 42G 96A, 138Pts: 159 GP(0.867924 PPG)
Tomas Plekanec: 45G 64A 109Pts: 162GP(.672839 PPG)
Scott Gomez: 28G 89A 117Pts: 155GP(.754838 PPG)

Last year:

Mikko Koivu: 22G 49A, 71Pts: 80 GP(0.887500 PPG)
Tomas Plekanec: 25G 45A 70Pts: 82GP(.853658 PPG)
Scott Gomez: 12G 47A 59Pts: 78GP(.756410 PPG)

One can say Plek should get the least out of all 3, but he is the best goal scorer out of the 3, so consider that.

Mikko Koivu has gotten better in PPG and GPG in each of last 3 years. He's youngest(not by much) and has good size.

Gomez's Point totals went down every year, he's the weakest goal scorer out of the 3, and the oldest. He still puts up big quality minutes like the other two though.

A GM having to give say 6-7 million out of the 3, does anyone pick Gomez? You'd be crazy too. It's easily Koivu, and Plek at a close second based on his goal scoring ability over the other two.

I won't even talk about Marleau cuz he is good defensively, dunno where you get average defensively from. His goal totals and point totals destroy the other 3 guys as well. No point in even argueing it.

All your thread shows is that in comparison to Koivu, Plek is a bargain/fair value and that Gomez is STILL overpaid.

Not saying Gomez sucks or anything, great player, just career average is faulty. At their end of their careers it counts, consistency, it counts. Contract time? Means nothing.

Stjonnypopo 07-16-2010 01:46 PM

If we didn't have Gomez under contract, I would have supported signing Koivu to the same contract he just received next year when he would have been a UFA.

BaseballCoach 07-16-2010 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist (Post 26946483)
You can't count a career average in these cases. Contracts are based on what you did recently.

Right,to a large degree at any rate. So when Gomez signed that contract, one year removed from the 84 point season, it wasn`t so crazy.

And when Mikko Koivu is 30-31 he might get less points than he does now.

By the way, Mikko just came off his best season and got 6.75M. Pleks just came off a similar season and got $5M. So, Gomez aside, why do people complain Pleks is overpaid too?

LyricalLyricist 07-16-2010 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaseballCoach (Post 26948530)
Right,to a large degree at any rate. So when Gomez signed that contract, one year removed from the 84 point season, it wasn`t so crazy.

And when Mikko Koivu is 30-31 he might get less points than he does now.

By the way, Mikko just came off his best season and got 6.75M. Pleks just came off a similar season and got $5M. So, Gomez aside, why do people complain Pleks is overpaid too?

Plek is not overpaid. If anything, people are uncertain because he's one year removed from an average year. He's a good player and I'd rather him than gomez.

Yes, I don't think gomez was worth 7.3 when he signed with NYR(cap has went up now, 7.3 then is like 8 now) but he came off some excellent years no doubt. But now? he IS overpaid. Bad contract then, worse now.

As of now, Koivu's statistics are on the rise each year so I guess they felt it was fair to assume it would increase or he's on the rise.

The one I find surprising is people think Spezza at 7 is overpaid. That is more than fair value. It makes 5 for plek completely reasonable. Even SJS sharks with JT at 7.2. These guys are top 1st line centers and make 7-7.2. Koivu making 6.75 IS a little too much as he's probably more of 6.25-6.5 guy, but not that far off. Plek, by these standards is likely to be a 5.5 guy IMO. Gomez should be around 5 mil. That's my take anyway.

hogtownhabsfan* 07-16-2010 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stjonnypopo (Post 26946737)
If we didn't have Gomez under contract, I would have supported signing Koivu to the same contract he just received next year when he would have been a UFA.

Accept he never would have been available...

You get what you can. Mikko is certainly the best player of the three, but we never would have had a chance to get him. Gomez was only available because of his contract.

I'm perfectly satisfied with the Gomez/Pleks 1-2 punch up the middle. They are very similar, and with their salaries averaged they are overpaid, but both are above average scoring line centers that most teams would take.

Ozymandias 07-16-2010 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist (Post 26948791)
Plek is not overpaid. If anything, people are uncertain because he's one year removed from an average year. He's a good player and I'd rather him than gomez.

Yes, I don't think gomez was worth 7.3 when he signed with NYR(cap has went up now, 7.3 then is like 8 now) but he came off some excellent years no doubt. But now? he IS overpaid. Bad contract then, worse now.

As of now, Koivu's statistics are on the rise each year so I guess they felt it was fair to assume it would increase or he's on the rise.

The one I find surprising is people think Spezza at 7 is overpaid. That is more than fair value. It makes 5 for plek completely reasonable. Even SJS sharks with JT at 7.2. These guys are top 1st line centers and make 7-7.2. Koivu making 6.75 IS a little too much as he's probably more of 6.25-6.5 guy, but not that far off. Plek, by these standards is likely to be a 5.5 guy IMO. Gomez should be around 5 mil. That's my take anyway.

Absolutely untrue. How is the contract worst when the salary cap has risen by almost 9 million since he signed his contract. We're talking about pure simple mathematics here. His contract can't get worse unless he hugely underperforms, but as each season goes by and the cap goes up, it gets better and better, not the opposite.

2007-2008 NHL cap : 50,3 mil
Max cap hit : 10 mil
Gomez 7,3 cap hit : 14,5% of a team's total cap space
73% of max player cap hit

2010-2011 NHL cap : 59,4 mil
Max cap hit : 11,85 mil
Gomez : 12,3%
61% of max player cap hit

The difference is 2,2% less on the team's TOTAL cap. The percentage represents 1,3 of free cap space.

Add to this the fact that in the final two seasons of Gomez's contract, he'll be earning 5 mil, and then 4 mil. The cap keeps rising and economically troubled teams who already have a hard time to reach the cap floor will be looking at Gomez with eager eyes, as his cap hit will exceed his salary by 2-3 mil. He will have very good trade value, especially that he'll still be in his early 30s by the time he'll have two years left on his contract.

LyricalLyricist 07-16-2010 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozymandias (Post 26949471)
Absolutely untrue. How is the contract worst when the salary cap has risen by almost 9 million since he signed his contract. We're talking about pure simple mathematics here. His contract can't get worse unless he hugely underperforms, but as each season goes by and the cap goes up, it gets better and better, not the opposite.

2007-2008 NHL cap : 50,3 mil
Max cap hit : 10 mil
Gomez 7,3 cap hit : 14,5% of a team's total cap space
73% of max player cap hit

2010-2011 NHL cap : 59,4 mil
Max cap hit : 11,85 mil
Gomez : 12,3%
61% of max player cap hit

The difference is 2,2% less on the team's TOTAL cap. The percentage represents 1,3 of free cap space.

Add to this the fact that in the final two seasons of Gomez's contract, he'll be earning 5 mil, and then 4 mil. The cap keeps rising and economically troubled teams who already have a hard time to reach the cap floor will be looking at Gomez with eager eyes, as his cap hit will exceed his salary by 2-3 mil. He will have very good trade value, especially that he'll still be in his early 30s by the time he'll have two years left on his contract.

lol this is the part you failed to factor in. I mentioned what you said in my post, you merely misread. The value of 7.3 then is as if he got 8 now. Meaning 7.3 now is less on the cap than 7.3 before. That's what I meant. Also, value wise...one would argue after 84 and 60(in 72 games) point seasons he was better then than he is now. You fail to factor this in. It's like saying Cheechoo who got 3.5(i think) a year cap hit after his maurice richard winning season has more value now, cuz the cap went up. There's more factors than simple inflation.

Besides, I never said Gomez has no value or whatever. I have said several times(look back if you want) that Gomez's lower salary and same cap hit would be attractive to low budget teams who don't reach cap anyway. I've even gone as far as saying Gomez will not finish his 4 years in montreal. He will be traded with 2 years left IMO.

Turboflex* 07-16-2010 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by overlords (Post 26946428)
Koivu isn't all that godly. He's good, but his numbers are painfully similar to pleks'. Like i said in another thread, just looking at stats is never enough, I understand koivu is a leader on his team and he's an important piece for their team, but that salary is just very steep.

So you make up for it by avoiding a dumb move like signing colby armstrong to a 3 million $ contract and you're fine. The alternative to losing a #1 a/b centre is worse than a slight overpayment. If the Wild lost Koivu they'd be down with Leafs contending for worst centremen in league.


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