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-   -   Isles situation on defense (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=80732)

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 03:27 PM

Isles situation on defense
 
I think the Isles are in a fairly precarious position. Cairns will soon be gone via UFA (the Isles are not expected to make a contract offer to him).

Aucoin and Hamrlik can both become UFAs next summer.

Janne N. is eligable for arbitration this summer.

Basically, unless something changes, the Isles can only be confident of having two of their two four at the end of next summer (Janne N and Kenny J).

There is at least a chance that they will move one of Aucoin or Hamrlik, although that is not nearly as certain an event as some have suggested here.

But, the bottom line is, I can't see the Isles proceeding any further without making some attempt to bring in another dman. That may be solved partially by signing Ryan Caldwell (who could be close to being ready to step in). But, the Isles have decent dept on RW, with Hunter, Weindhandl, and Parrish, and Blake's position could be taken by Sean Berginheim.

I think one of two scenarios are a virtual certainty:

1) Parrish or Blake gets dealt for a dman.

2) Aucoin or Hamrlik gets moved for a younger dman.

Rattrick 05-28-2004 03:31 PM

I think the Panthers need to do some swapping around on defense as well. Would any of Biron, Trnka or Lilja interest you? I think the Panthers would love to have Parrish but I don't know what the Isles would be looking for.

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luongofan
I think the Panthers need to do some swapping around on defense as well. Would any of Biron, Trnka or Lilja interest you? I think the Panthers would love to have Parrish but I don't know what the Isles would be looking for.

You've listed a few depth players, none of who can be counted on to take a regular shift. In fact, all three of those guys are likely to be cut loose at the next wavier draft. If you got anything from the Isles for the likes of Biron and Lilja, it would be a late round pick or cash.

As for Parrish, I hope he doesn't get moved, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. The Isles like Hunter and Weinhandl, and that could leave Parrish the odd man out. I could see the Isles moving him for a young hard hitting guy who is a legitimate top four (like Corey Sarich, as an example - not saying he is available) or a big mean LW'er who can play in the top six. I don't see either of those guys available in FLA's system though (although I haven't looked very closely at your lineup).

Drake1588 05-28-2004 03:41 PM

Unless the Panthers are discussing a trade using Krajicek or Novak as bait, which is not likely, I am not at all sure they have much to dangle. Parrish is easily worth that much, and more, however.

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake1588
Unless the Panthers are discussing a trade using Krajicek or Novak as bait, which is not likely, I am not at all sure they have much to dangle. Parrish is easily worth that much, and more, however.


FLA doesn't really have the youngish top four guy the Isles desperately need. That is an organization that is stocked with excellent talent, however.

RoyIsALegend* 05-28-2004 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
You've listed a few depth players, none of who can be counted on to take a regular shift. In fact, all three of those guys are likely to be cut loose at the next wavier draft. If you got anything from the Isles for the likes of Biron and Lilja, it would be a late round pick or cash.

While I don't think he is worth Mark Parrish, you are simply wrong about Andreas Lilja.

He would make most teams' top 6 D without a problem and is a very dependable player. It would cost more than a 'late round pick or cash' for fim.

Drake1588 05-28-2004 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
FLA doesn't really have the youngish top four guy the Isles desperately need. That is an organization that is stocked with excellent talent, however.

Sorry, I was unclear. Plenty of talent, yes. Young and talented defensemen who can step in soon, outside of some players they probably are unlikely to shop... not so many.

Plenty of talent in FLA, but for this specific need, I'm not sure they can accomodate without offering up players they may be reluctant to trade.

Trottier 05-28-2004 03:59 PM

Anytime "precarious" can be interjected into a HF post, it's a good thing. :)

Darth, you and the other NYI economic realists have been proven correct before. Or, more precisely, those of us who pine for an increase in payroll, or suggest deals that do not take salary into consideration, have been proven incorrect, repeatedly, over the last three years.

That said, during that time, NYI hasn't really been faced with the tough decisions regarding significant players. So to that end, one who assumes that they won't invest in their own players may be a tad pessimistic. (Not saying that is you.) That is, the track record since summer 2001 shows that NYI will not go out and invest in bringing in new contract$. But we do not yet have much/any evidence that they will not make a committment to their own players. And, while $$$ certainly is a major factor, talent evaluation is going to be a big part too.

Point is, I don't think NYI's personnel decisions regarding their own players will be based exclusively on budget.

If they do look to "replace" proven, in-their-prime dmen like Aucoin and Hamrlik with Ryan Caldwell "college star" :joker:, this franchise is in for another decline shortly.

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoyIsALegend
While I don't think he is worth Mark Parrish, you are simply wrong about Andreas Lilja.

He would make most teams' top 6 D without a problem and is a very dependable player. It would cost more than a 'late round pick or cash' for fim.


I'd have to disagree. I see Lilja as a #5/#6 man. His foot speed and positioning are a little to weak for me to see him as "dependable." I thought he had started to turn a corner last season, but he looked lost every time I saw him play this year.

I think Lilja's future in the NHL is as a 5/6 guy, who can be a reasonable fill-in during injuries. Maybe a late round pick is a bit of stretch for that kind fo player, but I wouldn't see him as returning much more than a 3rd or 4th rounder.

That said, you are right that I was overstating the situation with regard to that player. He has more value than I suggested.

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trottier
Anytime "precarious" can be interjected into a HF post, it's a good thing. :)

Darth, you and the other NYI economic realists have been proven correct before. Or, more precisely, those of us who pine for an increase in payroll, or suggest deals that do not take salary into consideration, have been proven incorrect, repeatedly, over the last three years.

That said, during that time, NYI hasn't really been faced with the tough decisions regarding significant players. So to that end, one who assumes that they won't invest in their own players may be a tad pessimistic. (Not saying that is you.) That is, the track record since summer 2001 shows that NYI will not go out and invest in bringing in new contract$. But we do not yet have much/any evidence that they will not make a committment to their own players. And, while $$$ certainly is a major factor, talent evaluation is going to be a big part too.

Point is, I don't think NYI's personnel decisions regarding their own players will be based exclusively on budget.

If they do look to "replace" proven, in-their-prime dmen like Aucoin and Hamrlik with Ryan Caldwell "college star" :joker:, this franchise is in for another decline shortly.

I hope you are right, Mark. And, that is why I made the point that an eventual trade of Aucoin or Hamrlik is not nearly as certain as some have suggested.

DaMick 05-28-2004 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trottier
Point is, I don't think NYI's personnel decisions regarding their own players will be based exclusively on budget.

If they do look to "replace" proven, in-their-prime dmen like Aucoin and Hamrlik with Ryan Caldwell "college star" :joker:, this franchise is in for another decline shortly.

i agree totally w/Trotts on this

break up the fantastic 4....youll see alot of ugly games in front of Dipietro

FF de Mars 05-28-2004 04:25 PM

A deal could be centered around Hainsey, if the Isles are looking at a good prospect to develop. There is too many 6-7 dman in mtl so he probably won't get the ice time to develop proprely. Hainsey and picks or prospects for Schachard?

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FF de Mars
A deal could be centered around Hainsey, if the Isles are looking at a good prospect to develop. There is too many 6-7 dman in mtl so he probably won't get the ice time to develop proprely. Hainsey and picks or prospects for Schachard?

My counter offer, for Hainsey (even though he doesn't seem to be the bruiser the Isles need) might be something like Mapletoft and a 2nd or 3rd rounder. That would be a fair deal.

The Isles should keep Scatchard, who is one of their few top nine guys with grit.

CREW99AW 05-28-2004 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FF de Mars
A deal could be centered around Hainsey, if the Isles are looking at a good prospect to develop. There is too many 6-7 dman in mtl so he probably won't get the ice time to develop proprely. Hainsey and picks or prospects for Schachard?


Doesn't make sense to move Scatchard.

It's d-men Aucoin and Hamrlik who are ufa in July 2005 and it's the depth at rw,which could make the isles think rw Parrsih is expendable.

FF de Mars 05-28-2004 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Milbury
My counter offer, for Hainsey (even though he doesn't seem to be the bruiser the Isles need) might be something like Mapletoft and a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Scatchard is far too high a price to pay for Hainsey.

I guess I was wrong for Schachard's value... oups... my bad, I though that Hainsey + something might have been enough, I guess I was wrong. That being said, I think that your idea is a very good one, and that it could help both teams; I'd swap Mapletoft for Hainsey, but not now: Yes, we have a hole on the third line, but Montreal is looking for Plekanek, Higgins, or a UFA to fill it. However, if BG hasn't signed any third liner as UFA, and if our prospects fail to grab the spot, Mapletoft, who according to HF seems to be a good two way center in the making, and most importantly who's not too small and frail, might be a terrific pick up for Montreal. Just one question, does Mapletoft play with grit, does he play a physical game?

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 04:44 PM

Mapletoft is gritty and physical, but not big or strong. He is basically a poor man's Kris Draper.

thestonedkoala 05-28-2004 05:10 PM

Willie Mitchell and something for your 1st...

Drake1588 05-28-2004 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thestonedkoala
Willie Mitchell and something for your 1st...

Unless the something is significant... that's a hefty price for Mitchell. First rounders are pretty special commodities.

thestonedkoala 05-28-2004 05:14 PM

What do you guys need?

CREW99AW 05-28-2004 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thestonedkoala
What do you guys need?


they need a physical top 4 defenseman and a top 6 scoring winger.


Isles prospect pool is thin.The owner and head of scouting have both said they'll concentrate on developing prospects.I doubt the 1st is dealt,unless it's to move up in the draft.

Darth Milbury 05-28-2004 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thestonedkoala
Willie Mitchell and something for your 1st...


Pass. I like Mitchell a lot, but this is an organization that has badly depleted its youth as it is.

That said, Mitchell, if healthy, would be the exact sort of player the Isles need.

thestonedkoala 05-28-2004 05:28 PM

Willie Mitchell + Pascal Dupuis + 2nd for your 1st

CREW99AW 05-28-2004 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thestonedkoala
Willie Mitchell + Pascal Dupuis + 3rd for your 1st


Pass.

Looking at their tight budget and how Aucoin+Hamrlik are both ufas next summer,I expect the isles to trade one,trying to fill roster needs.

and at 16 the isles are looking at getting a quality prospect like Green,Thelan,Wolski or O'neil.

thestonedkoala 05-28-2004 05:39 PM

You know that Dupuis makes less than a million and Mitchell might make slightly over a million?

CREW99AW 05-28-2004 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thestonedkoala
You know that Dupuis makes less than a million and Mitchell might make slightly over a million?


and replacing Hamrlik or Aucoin with a cheaper physical d-man,would save the nyi anywhere from $1m-$3m.


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